PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Badger]

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html

In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.

I'm not sure that could be set of Saccone considering how far right and lazy of a candidate has been. Though admittedly if he got in he be Congressman for life for the new Westmoreland base District

[Badger]

Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.

[Badger]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it.

[Badger]

Saccone's closing message.



https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?

Honestly, this is pretty much typical for him. At least when he's not heavily managed or filtered through spokespersons

[Badger]

Also:

https://twitter.com/kramtrak/status/973554843393564672

https://twitter.com/kramtrak/status/973570776510197760

Mount Lebanon is of course the one Democratic stronghold in the Allegheny portion of this district, and IRC Lambs home town.

[Badger]

Also:

https://twitter.com/kramtrak/status/973554843393564672

https://twitter.com/kramtrak/status/973570776510197760

Mount Lebanon is of course the one Democratic stronghold in the Allegheny portion of this district, and IRC Lambs home town.

Yes he'll get 70%+ there.

Since Clinton got IRC, 62 or 63 percent of the vote, I have little doubt. The reports of high turnout there are very bad news for Saccone.

[Badger]

I'm not quite sure why CNN put Santorum on their panel.

A. Pennsylvania. B. Regular on CNN.

And former representative for the,south hills portion of the district

[Badger]

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.

Apparently it's a district that both Casey and Wolf lost too.

Whoa! THAT says a lot.

[Badger]

Early votes dump first. Makes sense Lamb would lead in these given the enthusiasm gap. Still a tossup. No clear winner or favorite.

Pennsylvania has almost no early vote to speak of, so no.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/973720687218188291

A 45-point shift? Yeah, quite is an understatement

[Badger]

There is no way Westmoreland is going to save Saccone if Lamb continues to over perform like this...

Highly doubtful at least.

[Badger]

Why does NYT have Saccone ahead in projection?

Admittedly, I am confused by this since lamb seems to be universally beating his benchmarks.

[Badger]

Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?

He was early, but not by this much.

Yeah, that's my recollection too. I believe Jones was actually up on the needle gauge for most of the night

[Badger]

Who is favored to win Westmoreland?

Saccone, substantially

[Badger]

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.

[Badger]

@Nate_Cohn
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Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

Are you f**king kidding me!!!!??

[Badger]

The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.

Badger I love you but come to the Democrats please

Don't do it badger we love you

It's good to be wanted.

[Badger]

So, where is the big Westmoreland dump?

[Badger]

Saccone I think needs at least 2-3k lead in rest of Washington.

Considering 15% of the vote is still out in Allegheny, which appears to have several times the vote of Washington County, I'm not sure even that would be enough.

[Badger]

Lamb has a lead of barely 2500 votes overall. Still a lot to be counted. This is going to be close.

[Badger]

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Let's test that theory in November against Casey. I'm not optimistic.

[Badger]

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.

The demographics for this mid-term are going to be completely different than 2016.

I'm talking about how Saccone could have won this specific district and how the GOP can win other similar Trump districts. Of course the midterm will favor democrats. The party out of the White House almost always gains. But there's no reason why republicans should lose districts where Trump won by this much.

Unless, and I know this is just a crazy thought here, when people don't have a choice of someone is unpopular is Hillary Clinton, they're having more than a little bit of buyer's remorse about Trump. Couldn't think why though....

[Badger]

On CNN, approximately 4,200 absentee ballots are being counted from Allegheny County and they expect results in 2 hours.

Any word about the number of absentees out of the other three counties?

[Badger]

He did it. I doubted it at the end, but he did it. It feels damn good.

Oh, you...

[Badger]

Y'all I have a quiz tomorrow

Little late now, isn't it?