PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194918 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2018, 11:45:27 AM »

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2018, 12:14:16 PM »


It's elementary for him.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:21 PM »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2018, 02:34:10 PM »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2018, 05:01:34 PM »


I'll jump on that bandwagon.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2018, 05:03:09 PM »

Interesting:

Quote
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #31 on: March 12, 2018, 07:21:51 PM »


Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2018, 08:37:49 PM »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.

In fact, the Monmouth poll found that 96% of the voters said that the tariff announcement did not affect their vote.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2018, 08:41:15 PM »

Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

See previous post above yours. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #34 on: March 13, 2018, 05:59:13 AM »


Go back to bed. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #35 on: March 13, 2018, 10:18:51 AM »


Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/08/red-vs-blue-a-brief-history-of-how-we-use-political-colors/ has a nice history of this.  I remember NBC's coverage with Red-D and Blue-R in elections from '76 or so.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: March 13, 2018, 02:48:55 PM »

Polls close at 8pm EDT.  About what time should results start coming in?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #37 on: March 13, 2018, 03:12:50 PM »

GOP dirty tricks



Counties conduct elections in the USA. Basically all county offices in Washington County are held by Democrats.

It might be that they were staffing on the expectation of a typical low-turnout midterm.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2018, 03:22:41 PM »

Is this about the time when the mood swings wildly and people panic? It feels that way, LOL.

Stay classy, Atlas.

We need a mood needle.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:37 PM »

Yeah I'm getting to a point where I'll be really shocked if Lamb loses

We should still remain cautiously optimistic. Saccone could still win, but turnout exceeding expectations makes that very hard to believe. Let's also remember Monmouth has an A+ rating from 538 and they said that Conor should win by a comfortable margin if turnout is high.

Yes, but don't forget that little thing called Margin of Error.  Even in the most favorable model for Lamb, the race was within MoE.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #40 on: March 13, 2018, 06:10:36 PM »

538's benchmarks for a tied race (from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-election/):

Allegheny D+14
Westmoreland R+13
Washington R+6
Greene R+19
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #41 on: March 13, 2018, 06:55:35 PM »

Can you guys actually see the note I pinned at the top of the thread? It appears on every page. It has the results link lol

I'm wondering if it's even visible now.

Yes, but it's so small that it's easy to miss.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #42 on: March 13, 2018, 07:02:49 PM »

Guys CNN says "To Early to Call". "To Early to Call"!? Atlas, what is your take on this development?

There are no results or exit polls for them to call with.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #43 on: March 13, 2018, 07:08:11 PM »


Profile -> Look and Layout Preferences -> Time Offset -> click Auto detect
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #44 on: March 13, 2018, 07:08:37 PM »


Lol what?

You do realize the time is fixed, right? All us west coast people have to deal with the time being two to three hours off year round.

No, just change your profile.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #45 on: March 13, 2018, 07:11:58 PM »

Guys CNN says "To Early to Call". "To Early to Call"!? Atlas, what is your take on this development?

There are no results or exit polls for them to call with.

Sarcasm bud.

Sorry, but around here one never knows. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2018, 07:15:54 PM »


With jitter on, it bounces back and forth even though no votes have been counted.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2018, 07:16:40 PM »

So no 538 live analysis, I know they did one for AL-Sen in December, did they not do any for MT-AL, GA-6, etc?

They did GA-6.  Not sure about MT.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2018, 07:20:20 PM »


So pretty much everybody is expecting Lamb to win.

Harry said earlier today that he considered Lamb less of a favorite than Clinton was in November 2016.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2018, 07:36:23 PM »

Which Atlas member was it, who didn't trust the NYT numbers (at all) during the Alabama Senate (Moore) election, and kept "making a call" that Moore had already won hours before the numbers were all in?
This member was moded, corroded, candy-coated about the entire incident.

Has these member made any predictions for this election?

Was it Ben Kenobi?

In other news, the NYT needle has finally started to move, currently Lamb +0.4.
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