PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 195892 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #25 on: February 18, 2018, 09:54:47 AM »

Gravis poll drops today.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #26 on: February 18, 2018, 11:20:45 AM »

Last one had Saccone up by 12 at a time when Republicans were already publicly worried about the race, so I'll say Gravis disagrees with Monmouth again and finds Saccone +9.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #27 on: February 18, 2018, 12:53:50 PM »

Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #28 on: February 20, 2018, 12:05:15 PM »

I have briefly read somewhere that PA's congressional districts were ruled unconstitutional.

Does this apply only to the PA state senate and house or the US house races as well ?

And if yes, does it mean the special election will still be held using the unconstitutional boundaries (I guess yes) ?

And what about the regular November election ? Old or new districts ?

Special election in old map, November election in new map. Congress only. There's a monster thread down below.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2018, 01:47:47 PM »

Do people think Lamb is wrong that a $15/hour minimum wage is too high nationally? If it was considered a risky, if successful, experiment for Seattle, PA-18 is at the opposite end of the cost of living scale. I really don't think this is the part of the country where this is a realistic goal and I wonder if voters there actually care about Lamb not signing on vs. national union leaders wishing they had his vote.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2018, 01:49:03 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2018, 01:56:21 PM by Brittain33 »

Labor leaders are frustrated with Lamb, who has not mentioned unions once in his ads despite promising to run on the back of their support. His district is loaded with union members.

http://paydayreport.com/5000-teachers-storm-wv-capitol-lamb-upset-labor-pa18-virginia-state-house-passes-medicaid-expansion/

It's always nice to see rich kids from political dynasties tell their constituents that living on a starvation wage is Good, Actually.

Appalachia and suburban Pittsburgh are not going to lead the nation on a $15/hour minimum wage.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #31 on: February 27, 2018, 01:35:42 PM »

Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...

The winner would represent the district from certification until the new Congress meetings in early January 2019. That's a pretty long time and otherwise the seat would be vacant. The special election to replace Gabby Giffords took place in June 2012 just before a redistricting cycle.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2018, 11:20:30 AM »

Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #33 on: March 04, 2018, 10:37:48 AM »

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #34 on: March 05, 2018, 10:07:06 AM »

Lamb surges into the lead on Predictit and now leads Saccone 57c - 43c.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2018, 01:33:52 PM »

In Ossoff, both Dems and Republicans voted like it was 2016, so Republicans won. In PA-18, it looks like Dems and Republicans will vote like it's 2017—high Dem turnout and crossover, low Republican turnout—although we won't know for certain until election day. (Or how much Republican turnout recovers for Election Day November 2018 from these dismal specials.) 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2018, 05:13:23 PM »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
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Brittain33
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« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2018, 05:21:03 PM »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.

There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2018, 07:20:36 AM »

Politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Here's a polling tidbit:
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Brittain33
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« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2018, 08:06:47 AM »

Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2018, 09:29:40 AM »

Sounds like this should stay stickied through Wednesday.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #41 on: March 12, 2018, 12:00:33 PM »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44


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Brittain33
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« Reply #42 on: March 12, 2018, 12:01:13 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 12:06:16 PM by Brittain33 »

Looks like Republicans aren't trying to fake set expectations

Predictit is now pricing Lamb at 64c a pound
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Brittain33
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« Reply #43 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:43 PM »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2018, 07:17:20 PM »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

In addition to what Virginia said, Murphy was pro-union and Democrats had given up seriously contesting this district with him in it (if they ever did.)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #45 on: March 13, 2018, 11:57:38 AM »


Turnout is smashing. VERY good news for Lamb.

2016 results in Allegheny: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Allegheny/63905/Web02.193333/#/cid/0104

I'm nervous about high turnout because of what happened with Ossoff, but I see Castle Shannon voted Clinton.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2018, 05:11:53 PM »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2018, 07:39:37 PM »

Early votes dump first. Makes sense Lamb would lead in these given the enthusiasm gap. Still a tossup. No clear winner or favorite.

No early vote in Pa.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2018, 08:09:48 PM »

Saccone is overperforming because his own legislative district has all reported.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2018, 08:11:13 PM »

Saccone is doing well in the southern tip of Allegheny. It appears that Lamb, while making substantial gains among traditionally democrat WWC voters who supported Trump, isn't getting the same swing from more educated suburban white voters.

Those people are literally Saccone's neighbors in his legislative district.
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