PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.

Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.

At the risk of derailing this (screw you Brittain ), if you--correctly--acknowledge torturing "mostly" bad people is ineffective, then how is it not immoral? Surely the only possible argument for it is its utility in some people's minds picturing a "Jack Bauer--24" scenario where a new 9/11 is prevented at the last moment by a dedicated government agent who plays by his own rules breaking the individual fingers of terrorists until they scream out where the detonator is hidden, etc. etc. etc.

Without that scenario, which you and I both recognize is Hollywood fantasy and contradicted by actual intelligence interrogators, what possible moral justification remains for the use of such tactics?

Oh, and thus how isn't Saccone a poophead? (/obligatory reference to the thread subject)

I view ethics and strategy as two different entities, and they don't cross in my mind barring extremes. Taking the issue of enhanced interrogation methods on bad people: for me, the ethics are fine, nothing morally/ethically wrong with it for me, strategy: there are better ways, its stupid, that's why we should not do it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I disagree with like 85% of the stuff in this ad, but at least they finally made a somewhat alright attack ad with some semblance of issues, and without getting personal for once. Maybe if they keep it up, by next week their ads will have real facts actually RELEVANT to Lamb.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am really upset about Lamb's exclusive and lobbyist filled fundraising events, while claiming to stand against this. I hope that he does not pull any more shenanigans like this in the future.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?

No, Lamb is plenty conservative, but I believe she has a better resume, does not hang out with big donors as much, and has held elected office, winning in a big Trump county. She's also not tied to the Obama admin, and I think she would rack up the margins in the Allegheny part of the district with moderate suburbanites and women very well, would do about as well as Lamb in the rest of the district aka losing it with a respectable margin, and then either keep Westmoreland close, or narrowly winning it, allowing her to win the district by 4-5 points. Westmoreland is a big and important part of this district, and I feel as though Cerilli brings to the table doing a lot better here than Lamb would, and I think she would do just as well in the Allegheny portion, due to raising up the female vote, and moderate suburbanites and suburban women. And its self explanatory that both of them would keep the losses to respectable margins elsewhere in the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

I just said it, typical one liner.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes, I am a big Manchin fan. Joe stands up for what he believes in, and takes definite stances on most issues. He was not afraid to stand with Hillary, he was not afraid to buck the NRA when he saw fit, he was not afraid to vote for the tax bill. You name an issue, and odds are that Joe has an honest and strong stance on opinions. As for the supposed waffling for the cameras, I can definitely see where people are coming from, but that is just being friendly with people who want a picture with him. You see how acitivists of all different colors walk up to senators, as seen with certain health care and disability advocacy groups go up to Manchin on capital hill, and probably some others with the opposite view go up again. And many of them want pictures with the senator when they meet with them. What are you going to say, no? Just because you meet with somebody does not mean that you agree with them. Look, I have worn kippahs to bat and bar mitzvahs, I have had been nice to people in authority positions in my life that I dislike, I have gone to both republican and democratic meetings and clapped at each. Does that make me jewish, or like people because I am nice to them, or a Republican? No. They are simply formalities, denying photo ops is usually a no no. Lamb waffles on everything, uh well ya know I'm pro life but I respect the law of the land, sure violence in schools is a problem and looking at gun issues could be beneficial but let's not burden the gun lobby too much more, yeah I stand against big money but I hang out with Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign finance chair, yeah I'm a democrat but forget that I am and just know that I'm against Pelosi harder than the GOP, etc etc. These are all Conor Lamb things. Also this race is getting nationalized and ya know no es bueno.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."

Sorry, yeah I did not phrase it well . Meant to say that if I was a voting resident I would not even show up, and if I was forced to, I would consider Saccone just to push back against the local dems for nominating Lamb, but being a solid dem, I'd probably rebound for Lamb in the end anyways.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, Cartwright and DePasquale would be better.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

Please don't be that profane here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

Can you give us a link please?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

While this may be true, the only visit Trump was planning to do was cancelled, and we now only have 11 days left, so it's a 50/50 if Trump even goes at this point. And Pence does not count, he does little, and is quite a bad fit for the district as well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?

No, definately not. Neither one. If forced, still Lamb, but otherwise, no.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?

No, definately not. Neither one. If forced, still Lamb, but otherwise, no.

There is always Drew Miller the Libertarian

He does not even live in the district, so no.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.

Obviously a great barometer, especially giving Ossoff in the 70s at one point. Predictit is garbage, learn it quick. I would not be too suprised by a Lamb win, but I think this is still Saccone's race to lose. Going into this, I was at about Lean R, Saccone wins 53-45, now I am thinking tilt R with Saccone pulling out 51-47.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I unenthusiastically want Lamb to win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm scared of needles, I resisted an IV at a hospital for 4 hours a couple years back. It was some nurse and a smaller doctor that tried to both get it in me and talk me into it forever, I managed to cause enough ruckus to hold them off for a while, then they said I was gonna die if I did not get the anti biotics from the iv, so I relented. Pretty sure they would have strapped me down with a crew if I did not relent eventually tho, since my parents told them they could. My only other request was that they significantly reduce the morphine dosage just in case, you know, man even at the young age of 14 I knew to stay away from that sh!t as much as possible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You. Can't. Make. This. Stuff. Up.