PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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May 09, 2021, 07:35:44 AM

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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 141385 times)
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2018, 01:13:49 PM »

Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.

I'm actually pretty optimistic on Lamb too. He's definitely had a better campaign than Saccone.

That probably means Lamb loses, though Smiley
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2018, 03:01:26 PM »

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look



Where's this photo from?
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2018, 08:43:05 PM »

Anyone else feel like Lamb has massive momentum right now? https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-tight-pennsylvania-race-gop-struggles-to-land-a-blow-against-conor-lamb/2018/03/01/4f7678e2-1d5f-11e8-ae5a-16e60e4605f3_story.html?utm_term=.79368ea72e23
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2018, 01:26:04 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2018, 01:34:38 PM »

Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2018, 01:39:44 PM »

I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?

I never said he was. Casey is going to put up career-high numbers in the Philly burbs with Barletta running. But it's still distressing to see the continued erosion of Democratic strength in Western PA, even as the national environment is very blue.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2018, 03:13:17 PM »

Trump coming to Allegheny County 3 days before the election --->


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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2018, 07:02:29 PM »

Another debate tonight starting in a few minutes: http://www.wtae.com/article/watch-live-pennsylvanias-18th-congressional-district-debate/19070188
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2018, 07:09:23 PM »

Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2018, 07:14:54 PM »

Lamb says he's for universal background checks, against raising the age to 21 for buying rifles. #resistance ain't gonna be happy with that.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2018, 09:00:12 AM »

Lol Salena Zito knows Lamb is gonna win and is already setting the new narrative:

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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2018, 04:59:03 PM »

I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2018, 05:15:07 PM »

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.


There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.

Also the Ohio race.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2018, 06:08:03 PM »

I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #39 on: March 05, 2018, 08:41:29 PM »

Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2018, 10:43:02 PM »

Sarcasm people. Sarcasm.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2018, 11:04:02 AM »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2018, 02:48:27 PM »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2018, 02:49:08 PM »

Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?

There's a hubdialer.com link to phonebank for Lamb that anyone can access.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2018, 02:51:55 PM »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
So you think you're special now?

What?
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2018, 09:53:09 PM »

This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #46 on: March 09, 2018, 09:39:30 AM »


Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2018, 10:07:09 AM »

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.

I think the tariffs and amazing economic news might slow that momentum.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2018, 05:11:16 PM »

Conor Lamb is almost certainly the best candidate of the several that Democrats have run in federal special elections.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #49 on: March 10, 2018, 06:28:09 PM »


For reference, they also pseudo-endorsed Trump in 2016: https://theincline.com/2016/11/07/pittsburgh-critics-blast-post-gazette-pseudo-trump-endorsement/
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