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  Talk Elections
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 131408 times)
Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
badger
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« Reply #2550 on: March 19, 2018, 01:30:24 am »

So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2551 on: March 19, 2018, 01:44:49 am »

So has Saccone finally raised his haunches and submission and conceded yet? Or is he still pulling a Roy Moore at this point?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/16/house-election-observers-monitor-pennsylvania-count-as-democrat-gains-votes/?utm_term=.85ddee217d5b
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2552 on: March 19, 2018, 01:48:57 am »


Oh my God, Dave Weigel looks like a Ron Jeremy-style porn star in that photo.
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BidenYou2020
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« Reply #2553 on: March 19, 2018, 08:05:50 am »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.

Yes and no. He wins if he gets exactly the same percentages as Clinton in the parts of the district that aren't in the old PA-18 and gets exactly the same percentages he got in the special election in the parts of the district that are in the old PA-18. That's as close to a guarantee as you can get.
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Sol
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« Reply #2554 on: March 19, 2018, 03:33:26 pm »

Far Northern Allegheny county is a bit of a republican stronghold IIRC. That may actually be a bigger challenge for Lamb than Beaver County.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2555 on: March 19, 2018, 03:42:49 pm »

Far Northern Allegheny county is a bit of a republican stronghold IIRC. That may actually be a bigger challenge for Lamb than Beaver County.

It also was the area of Allgeheny County that swung the hardest to Clinton in 2016.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2556 on: March 20, 2018, 02:47:01 am »

To summarize the dump of election data by place for South Allegheny between 2008 and 2017 that I posted last night, here is a chart that I coded by color to present a more accessible visual of +/- Dem Margins that reinforces the point that I have been making regarding the historically Republican nature of these communities within the past ten years....



So, I took a little bit of time to pull up some of the key demographic stats for these various communities within South Allegheny for some of the common variables that have been associated with National Presidential election results from 2008 > 2016.

These include items such as Median Household Income, Race/Ethnicity/Age/Educational Attainment, so see if this helps explain or provide insights into changing voting alignments and swings at a larger level throughout PA, and with possible implications elsewhere within the Region.



Certain things make sense within the context of the current Trump ascendancy within the Republican Party....

1.) Upper St Clair, the wealthiest and most educated "municipality" went from being the most Republican stronghold within the district up until 2016 when Trump was on the ballot, where he only won by 3.5% (But still it went heavily 'Pub for US Senate) to being a +10% Dem CD with typically high voter turnout.

Interestingly enough it also has the highest % of school children (<18 Yrs) and this is the type of community where voters can easily swing based upon educational funding and quality type policy issues and perceptions.

2.) Mount Lebanon is an interesting recent development as a "Democratic Stronghold", since although it shares in common with Upper St Clair a high level of Educational Attainment, actually only ranks 4th in MHI within the largest places in the District, and age and ethnicity actually track relatively close to South Allegheny at large. It does have a higher % than average of school age students, and is obviously much more closely proximate to Pittsburgh, so perhaps has less of the "City/Suburban" type issue than some other places within the district?

Perhaps one of our local residents can elucidate us on why this area has been a relatively solid Dem constituency since '08?

3.) Bethel Park--- Looks a bit older and a bit more Anglo, but in terms of MHI, Educational Attainment is still solidly Upper Middle Class, and this is first major election where it has voted Democrat since before '08.

4.) Moon Township--- Really similar to Bethel Park demographically and politically, with both virtually voting in tandem with the exception of the '14 PA GOV race, and slightly lower swings towards Lamb than Bethel (Trump effect?). Only major demographic difference is that Moon Township is less Anglo than Bethel fwiw.

5.) Scott Township
---- One of a handful of "Middle Class" 'Burbs here with an MHI of only $61k/Yr, but is only 82% Anglo with an older than average population and relatively high educational attainment levels.

One of the few consistent Democrat voting communities here, with the exception of '12 PA SEN and '10 PA GOV.

6.) South Fayette--- Wealthier and more educated than many places within South Allegheny, and actually a bit younger than most of the other places referenced above.

One of the larger flips within South Allegheny never having voted Dem for any of the races covered and by +21% Swing.

7.) Whitehall Borough------ The lowest income municipality of the 14 largest places within South Allegheny. One of the older places within the County and with a lower than average level of educational attainment.

Politically, it's one of only a handful of communities that Obama almost won in '08, and was actually one of the more Democratic parts of So Allegheny in '12 PA SEN and '14 PA GOV, and actually flipped and voted DEM for HRC in '16 after having voted for McCain and Romney previously.

Ancestral retired Democrats?Huh

8.) South Park Twp
---- Whiter, Younger, solidly Middle Class and lower levels of educational attainment than most of the top 14 communities.

One of Obama's best communities in South Allegheny in '08, and one of a handful of places the '12 Dem Sen and '14 Dem Gov candidates won here....

Interestingly enough was one of Lamb's worst Top 14 places within SoAlleg....

9.) Elizabeth Township
---- Sure the Pub had a homefield advantage here as Lamb did in Mt Lebanon, but you are basically looking at the Whitest, Oldest, and least educated community within the Top 14 of SoAlleg.

Still, the interesting thing about Elizabeth Township is how far it swung Republican, even as other parts of the district were swinging marginally Democrat.... Basically we are right on the edge of the Westmoreland County line and perhaps there is an ancestral Anti-Pittsburgh thing going on, without the Ancestral Dem thing in parts of Washington and Greene Counties (IDK?Huh)

I can roll through a few more using the charts provided above, and we see Robinson Township swinging hard (Educated, Upper Middle Class, Higher than avg % of Non-Anglos for the District), but then we roll into Jefferson Hills Borough, which on the surface is very similar to Robinson, except it is 96% Anglo vs 88 % Anglo, which was the only real difference that stood out to me based upon Demographics....

Now we go the Pleasant Hills Borough, which is pretty much the oldest and Whitest place here, next to Elizabeth and Whitehall, and we see one of the largest swings towards the Dem candidate of almost anywhere in the County, where the last time it voted Dem was in '12 narrowly for the US SEN!!!!

So y'all can put that in your pipe and smoke it, since I've been doing a stream of consciousness as I have been running the Demographics by Community against historical election results, so I don't have any firm conclusions about what all of this means without delving deeper into precinct level detail and Census Data....

What I suspect might well be the case is that:

1.) Senior Citizens (65+) that tend to vote regularly swung hard towards Lamb because of the perception that the Affordable Care Act and Government Entitlement Programs that benefit Seniors are under attack by the Republican Congress.

(Ancestral Democrats)

2.) Upper and Middle Class College Educated voters in the 'Burbs of Pittsburgh are starting to swing heavily, and not just in the most heavily educated places within the CD (Upper St Clair and Mt Lebanon).

3.) In general "Soft Trump" voters within even Lean 'Pub areas in Metro 'Burbs are starting to shop around, since the whole "Anti-Bush" style of Republicanism portraying a classical isolationist and protectionist ideal is being rubbed raw as the Emperor is exposed as having no clothes, and instead of focusing on keeping decent paying jobs in America and avoiding foreign engagements overseas, is basically looking like your "Old Skool 'Pub Pres", where Robin Hood means "robbing the hood", tax cuts for everyone, means "tax cuts for the rich", bringing jobs back to America means "Same old Same old and whatever manufacturing jobs come back pay 25-50% of the wages they did 20 years ago", where "protecting our borders" means sending Americas sons and daughters born of Immigrant parents back home to a land they never knew, except through the stories of their parents and grandparents.

Regardless of some minor amount of hyperbole on my last point, I do believe that in the eyes of many Trump voters, including some Millennials that I know, they did not intend to vote for the current policies and direction of the country, regardless of how much they disliked HRC and thought that maybe, just maybe Trump would be a different type of Republican than they had seen in decades.

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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #2557 on: March 20, 2018, 11:53:22 am »

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Arch
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« Reply #2558 on: March 20, 2018, 12:08:42 pm »



Whew, lad. 2 more buses.
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
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« Reply #2559 on: March 20, 2018, 03:01:55 pm »



DOMINATING
O               N
M               I
I                T
N               A
A               N
T                I
I                M
N               O
GNITANIMOD
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Mondale
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« Reply #2560 on: March 20, 2018, 03:04:16 pm »



Whew, lad. 2 more buses.

Soros needs to train these bus drivers better
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #2561 on: March 20, 2018, 03:47:20 pm »

I guess the buses keep rolling in as the margin is now 758 votes

http://triblive.com/local/regional/13443796-74/conor-lambs-lead-grows-as-special-election-review-continues

Probably less than 50 votes to be added or adjudicated at this point.
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« Reply #2562 on: March 20, 2018, 10:41:56 pm »

Just a reminder that I was right, and Conor won. I deserve an apology from everyone who doubted me.

Yes, I am still drunk off of my victory.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2563 on: March 21, 2018, 06:47:41 pm »

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.

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Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
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« Reply #2564 on: March 21, 2018, 06:56:50 pm »

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.



Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede? Tongue
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #2565 on: March 21, 2018, 06:59:16 pm »

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.



Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede? Tongue

At least Saccone did concede.  The same canít be said for Roy Moore...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2566 on: March 21, 2018, 07:02:51 pm »

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.



Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede? Tongue

At least Saccone did concede.  The same canít be said for Roy Moore...

Since we are post-signing deadline, there is also a good incentive for the two to make ammends - there is a good chance both candidates will be neighbors in the 2019 congress.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #2567 on: March 22, 2018, 07:37:07 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

lmao
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morgieb
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« Reply #2568 on: March 22, 2018, 08:04:12 pm »

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.



Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede? Tongue
And tbf Saccone was at least close enough he could hope for a miracle. Moore really wasn't.

At least Saccone did concede.  The same canít be said for Roy Moore...
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #2569 on: March 22, 2018, 08:10:19 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

lmao

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prediction based on "personal sources" be correct on this site. Remember Ben Kenobi in the Alabama thread?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2570 on: March 22, 2018, 08:20:58 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

lmao

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prediction based on "personal sources" be correct on this site. Remember Ben Kenobi in the Alabama thread?

Ben was using a model he developed.  It turned out to be a terrible one, but at least it was an attempt to be rigorous rather than citing nebulous sources.
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Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
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« Reply #2571 on: March 23, 2018, 01:17:03 am »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

lmao

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prediction based on "personal sources" be correct on this site. Remember Ben Kenobi in the Alabama thread?

Ben was using a model he developed.  It turned out to be a terrible one, but at least it was an attempt to be rigorous rather than citing nebulous sources.

Yeah, but it was still God awful. And the way he defended it right up till like 98% of the vote was in was... Obtuse even by his standards
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2572 on: March 24, 2018, 10:02:13 pm »

Now I've posted more detailed level election results for South Allegheny a few weeks back here, as well as summarizing some of the data and adding in Demographic data by place in a follow-up post...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.2550

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.2550

Time to take a look at what the data shows for South Allegheny when it comes to the more thorny question of the question of Democratic and Republican base turnout versus swings from Trump '16 > Lamb '18 crossover voters.

This question is perhaps a bit more difficult than some of the data I posted based upon detailed precinct and municipal analysis from the 2017 Alabama US Senate election, where for example I pulled up multiple places where there was clearly a massive flip among Trump '16 > Jones '17 voters in many places throughout the State.... (See link below for example on some interesting items in Baldwin County)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279603.375

OK---- let's look at the overall Total Vote in municipalities within South Allegheny in the 2018 Special Election as a % Share of the 2016 Presidential Election Total Vote by Municipality and DEM/REP respective % in 2018 of their 2016 PRES numbers to see what if anything this might tells us of enthusiasm gap vs flip voters....



Let's repost the Demographic data chart that I posted previously by Municipality:



Let's throw in a graph I posted regarding '16 GE Pres vs '18 CD-18 Swings:



What does this data tell us?

1.) The highest turnout was in the two places with the highest level of Educational Attainment (Mount Lebanon and Upper St Clair) which had respectively 74% and 70% turnout levels compared to the 2016 General Election, and the next highest level of Turnout was in Bethel Park and Elizabeth Townships.

If we look at the % of the '18 Democratic vote compared to the '16 GE, we see the Democratic Candidate capturing 87% of the Vote in Mt Lebanon, 86% in Bethel Park, 84% in Upper St Clair, and 81% in Elizabeth Township.

We see the 'Pub nominee capturing 60% of the Trump vote in Mt Lebanon, 59% in Bethel Park, 63% in Upper St Clair, and 65% in Elizabeth Township....

1.) It's pretty clear that in Mt Lebanon there was both a mixture of Democratic Base turnout combined with Cross-Over Trump > Lamb voters (After all his home base community) even within the context of relatively high Republican voter turnout).... Overall margins swings were significantly less than we saw in many of the other largest communities within South Allegheny.

2.) Upper St Clair which is the wealthiest and most educated larger municipality, had one of the lowest swings to Lamb compared to Trump '16 %, and had the 2nd highest % level of Republican voters compared to 'Pub GE Pres numbers.

Although I have no doubt that there were quite a few Trump > Lamb voters here, it does not appear that the Upper-Income Anglo voters here (MHI $106.3k/Yr) were nearly as significant as elsewhere within South Allegheny, despite the fact that this was a + 19% McCain '08 district that in '16 became a + 4% Trump district, and then a 55-45 Dem district in '18 Special Election.

Still, it is worthy of noting that this is first time ever in recent political history that this Community has voted Democrat, and with the exception of 2016 has been the most Republican community within South Allegheny.

3.) Bethel Park--- 

If we look at the 2018 Special Election results, it's pretty clear here based upon turnout and % of choice, that there was a significant amount of Trump > Lamb crossover voters compared to many other larger municipalities within the district.... 

If we cross-ref against the other data this appears more like a moderately Middle/ Upper-Middle-Class Community within So Allegheny that is relatively close to the overall Demographic Profile.

4.) Elizabeth----.... Since 2016 has become one of the highest level Republican strongholds within this portion of the County and one of the only 'Pub 18 Municipalities in '18....

We see the lowest differential between Trump '16 and 'Pub '18 numbers, in a high turnout election for both candidates....   Sure it was the 'Pub nominees home town, but still cross-over voters appear much lower here than elsewhere within the district....

5.) Where it appears that we might seem some of the biggest swings are in places such as Jefferson Hills, Pleasant Hills, and Collier.

6.) North Fayette and Robinson are iffier since looking at the overall turnout levels, how much of the swing was a depression of the Republican vote versus voters that swung from Trump '16 to Lamb '18.

7.) Still not so sure about Moon, Scott, South Fayette, and Whitehall regarding the question of Dem/Rep turnout versus Trump > Lamb voters.

Anyways, still looking in more detail at individual precinct results, but wanted to do a first dive into the whole Democratic/Republican Base Turnout question versus Trump voters that swung towards Lamb.

 
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« Reply #2573 on: April 03, 2018, 07:59:50 am »

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/04/02/Conor-Lamb-Allegheny-County-election-results-certified-winner-congressional-seat/stories/201804020086

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« Reply #2574 on: April 12, 2018, 08:29:45 am »

Conor Lamb will be sworn in at 5 p.m. today.

https://theincline.com/2018/04/10/conor-lamb-will-be-sworn-in-as-congressman-on-thursday/
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