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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127499 times)
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #2275 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:13 pm »

Yeah, Lamb has this.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2276 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:25 pm »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
If he couldn't do that with Westmoreland and it was his best county.  No way he does it with Greene and Washington
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tallguy23
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« Reply #2277 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:36 pm »

Special elections are much more elastic than national elections. I'd hold off the breaks on even a gain of 60-70 at this point.

Definitely. I always play safe but I think 45 seats isn't out of the question.
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marty
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« Reply #2278 on: March 13, 2018, 11:24:40 pm »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #2279 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:10 pm »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?

Something like that.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #2280 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:15 pm »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

Rep. Lou Barletta could still give Sen. Bob Casey a tough race in November.

PA-SEN is Lean D.

lol the  is this
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2281 on: March 13, 2018, 11:25:33 pm »

What % of voters in pa18 tonight do you think approve of trump?

49%?
52-53
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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2282 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:03 pm »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

Rep. Lou Barletta could still give Sen. Bob Casey a tough race in November.

PA-SEN is Lean D.

lol the  is this

Tbh, Lou Barletta is probably a weaker candidate than Rick Saccone.
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Arch
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« Reply #2283 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:31 pm »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2284 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:46 pm »


Freedom map.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2285 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:58 pm »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
If he couldn't do that with Westmoreland and it was his best county.  No way he does it with Greene and Washington

Greene was his best county, actually, but he came nowhere close to 70% there. And obviously did not in Washington, either, which is the vast majority of the remaining absentees.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #2286 on: March 13, 2018, 11:29:38 pm »

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JGibson
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« Reply #2287 on: March 13, 2018, 11:29:42 pm »

BREAKING: Conor Lamb (D) has been declared the apparent winner in the #PA18 special. #PApolitics #ConorLamb #Lamb4Congress #LambChopsSaccone

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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2288 on: March 13, 2018, 11:30:18 pm »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
If he couldn't do that with Westmoreland and it was his best county.  No way he does it with Greene and Washington

Greene was his best county, actually, but he came nowhere close to 70% there. And obviously did not in Washington, either, which is the vast majority of the remaining absentees.
Correction what I meant was it was his best "county" in terms of raw #'s. He will do good in Greene but we are talking 200 votes. Unless he kills Washington (which is 85-90% unlikely) he has no path
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Arch
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« Reply #2289 on: March 13, 2018, 11:30:59 pm »

I wanna see that check mark on NYT.
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« Reply #2290 on: March 13, 2018, 11:32:05 pm »

BREAKING: Conor Lamb (D) has been declared the apparent winner in the #PA18 special. #PApolitics #ConorLamb #Lamb4Congress #LambChopsSaccone



What network?
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #2291 on: March 13, 2018, 11:34:29 pm »

Itís nice to win for a change instead of coming ever so close and claiming a moral victory.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2292 on: March 13, 2018, 11:35:00 pm »

A Georgian clone of Lamb would have beaten Handel 54-46.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2293 on: March 13, 2018, 11:35:42 pm »

Everyone, apologize for all of the Ossoff comparisons.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2294 on: March 13, 2018, 11:36:04 pm »

Everyone, apologize for all of the Ossoff comparisons.
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JGibson
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« Reply #2295 on: March 13, 2018, 11:36:22 pm »

BREAKING: Conor Lamb (D) has been declared the apparent winner in the #PA18 special. #PApolitics #ConorLamb #Lamb4Congress #LambChopsSaccone



What network?

No network or AP call yet, but from Daily Kos Elections and my gut feeling that Saccone won't make up the deficit all the way.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/973777462059569153
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marty
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« Reply #2296 on: March 13, 2018, 11:36:36 pm »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.
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riceowl
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« Reply #2297 on: March 13, 2018, 11:42:17 pm »

Based on what we have seen since the GA election, I honestly think Ossof actually was a disappointment.

Publicized national funding for a local race is a huge turn-off.

...is my take-away.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2298 on: March 13, 2018, 11:45:01 pm »

Conor looking like a snack Smiley

https://www.c-span.org/video/?442500-1/conor-lamb-addresses-supporters-votes-counted-house-race
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« Reply #2299 on: March 13, 2018, 11:45:29 pm »

It looks like he's declaring victory?
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