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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127813 times)
PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #2250 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:23 pm »

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

If you directly extrapolate from these results.

Why wouldn't that be a reasonable thing to do? Saccone is a generic R and lamb seems like a typical midwest dem.

Lamb is well to the right of most potential nominees. The Dems will win 30 seats in the house at the absolute most.


Uh-huh.

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bronz4141
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« Reply #2251 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:53 pm »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

Rep. Lou Barletta could still give Sen. Bob Casey a tough race in November.

PA-SEN is Lean D.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #2252 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:56 pm »

Beginning to notice a pattern among winning Democratic candidates but I can't put my finger on it.




are you honestly saying the democratic party is too white?  lol

Iím suggesting that the present policy of chasing white men out of the party may be illl-advised.

Roll Eyes
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #2253 on: March 13, 2018, 11:13:47 pm »

114 GOP seats that are less Republican than this one. November just might be a bloodbath of epic proportions.

The all time record for seat pickups is 130 in the 1896 midterms.
I don't see the Democrats picking up more than ~75 seats in the House unless Trump starts WW3 and the economy is in a deep recession come November.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2254 on: March 13, 2018, 11:14:49 pm »

Why does't anyone make the call? It's fair to say Rick has no path
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2255 on: March 13, 2018, 11:15:09 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #2256 on: March 13, 2018, 11:15:09 pm »


It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...
I remember spending my college years late at night on the internet with a quiz the next day. That's actually not sarcasm I legit did that and getting nostalgia flashbacks

I remember my college, and law school years, before the internet. I would've never made it through. Tongue
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emcee0
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« Reply #2257 on: March 13, 2018, 11:16:01 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
I found out here of all places.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2258 on: March 13, 2018, 11:16:46 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
I found out here of all places.
MSNBC via Brian Williams.
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#Joemala2020
RFKFan68
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« Reply #2259 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:03 pm »
« Edited: March 14, 2018, 12:07:51 am by Virginia »

I can't get over this.

https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/973768617539129344
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gf20202
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« Reply #2260 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:13 pm »

As to why no call from the networks, It's close enough that a bad reporting/tabulation error could swing the election or at least make it close enough that a recount could swing it. Best we can hope for is an Apparent Winner Designation.
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socaldem
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« Reply #2261 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:19 pm »

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

She would have lost this I think, but she can win the new PA-14 now that that river region is included.

A total nightmare for the GOP.

I think Conor Lamb is favored in the new PA-17. He will clean up in the territory from the old PA-17 and PA-18 in the new district. Meanwhile, he is fundraising dynamite ant the national GOP won't have the resources to save Rothfus. The closeness of the race only makes Lamb that much more celebrated.

Meanwhile, Saccone came so very close that he'll be able to clear the field in PA-14. The problem is the new district is missing his home base in Southern Allegheny County... Saccone is such a miserable fundraiser and is so gaffe-prone and already has high negatives. The GOP won't be able to spend $6 million tarring her...

Really hoping Gina Cerilli gets in. Please, please, please. It would still Lean Republican, though.

Dems really need to toss Pelosi. We need a leader that can help us make more inroads into the traditionally Dem areas....
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2262 on: March 13, 2018, 11:17:23 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
I found out here of all places.
MSNBC via Brian Williams.
BBC notification on my phone.
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bilaps
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« Reply #2263 on: March 13, 2018, 11:19:03 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities
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emcee0
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« Reply #2264 on: March 13, 2018, 11:19:14 pm »

I had to google it to make sure it was true.
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Ses
jk2020
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« Reply #2265 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:13 pm »


Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.
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Arch
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« Reply #2266 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:27 pm »

How much longer until we get the last votes in, estimated?
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2267 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:38 pm »


Also found out here. RIP a true inspiration and one-of-a-kind example of the immense capabilities of the human mind.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #2268 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:41 pm »

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.


That's assuming that the absentees match the ED vote, right?

If so, Lamb has done better in absentees in both Allegheny and Westmoreland. I'd imagine it'll stay the same in Washington and Greene.

Hell, extrapolating the D-lean of SW PA absentees, both generally and especially from today, there's a decent chance he'll pick up votes from the Washington absentees, quite possibly enough to offset the literal handful Saccone picks up in Greene.

Yeah, it's over. Lamb won.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2269 on: March 13, 2018, 11:20:49 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities

Lol, keep thinking that.

You sound like delusional Democrats after they lost Teddy's seat in 2010.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #2270 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:00 pm »

Saccone needs over 70% of outstanding votes to win, according to CNN.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #2271 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:05 pm »

Daily Kos has called the election...

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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #2272 on: March 13, 2018, 11:22:23 pm »

cnn on my Mac
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Mzal98
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« Reply #2273 on: March 13, 2018, 11:22:30 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...

I found out on the reddit megathread, had to double check
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bilaps
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« Reply #2274 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:10 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.

It didn't  and that is the problem.

The GOP was banking on the cuts moving the needle and it did nothing. They need to wake up to reality, the issue is Trump and no tax cut is going to help him as long as he polling 35-40%.

Trump was not issue here, his approval is 51% in a Monmouth poll which showed 6% Lamb win, so probably even better among today's electorate. Problem for Republicans is enthusiasm gap. Saccone hit the marks he needed for a tight race in 3 counties outside Allegheny but turnout in Allegheny was higher than in these counties. Generic republican can't energise the base like Trump, that's whay they're in a rough shape. They lose suburbs because of Trump among higher educated voters, that's true and generic republican isn't Trump to offset these losses among rural not so educated communities

Lol, keep thinking that.

You sound like delusional Democrats after they lost Teddy's seat in 2010.

Keep thinking what exactly? It's a fact it's not thinking when you cite a poll.
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