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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127560 times)
john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #2225 on: March 13, 2018, 11:02:19 pm »

Per Kornacki, the new numbers include the Westmoreland absentees.  This thing is a wrap.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2226 on: March 13, 2018, 11:02:51 pm »

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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2227 on: March 13, 2018, 11:03:06 pm »


It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...
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#Joemala2020
RFKFan68
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« Reply #2228 on: March 13, 2018, 11:03:58 pm »

I hope Saccone doesn't do a recount. This district won't even exist in a year. It is futile. Take the loss and move on.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2229 on: March 13, 2018, 11:04:13 pm »

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

If you directly extrapolate from these results.

Why wouldn't that be a reasonable thing to do? Saccone is a generic R and lamb seems like a typical midwest dem.

It presumes uniform swing, which is unlikely for a variety of reasons. Steel county union Demosaurs are different from southern rural whites, etc
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2230 on: March 13, 2018, 11:04:23 pm »

Now can we pop some champagne?
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Holmes
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« Reply #2231 on: March 13, 2018, 11:04:30 pm »


It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...

Ok but like everyone younger than me is 12.
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DemocraticKing
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« Reply #2232 on: March 13, 2018, 11:04:49 pm »

So. Would Gina Cerilli have been a better candidate? Or would she not have prevailed without Lamb's Allegheny hometown advantage?

She would have lost this I think, but she can win the new PA-14 now that that river region is included.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2233 on: March 13, 2018, 11:05:09 pm »


It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...
I remember spending my college years late at night on the internet with a quiz the next day. That's actually not sarcasm I legit did that and getting nostalgia flashbacks
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YE
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« Reply #2234 on: March 13, 2018, 11:06:40 pm »


It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...
I remember spending my college years late at night on the internet with a quiz the next day. That's actually not sarcasm I legit did that and getting nostalgia flashbacks

It's not an ideal situation but sh**t happens in college and sometimes you stay up way later than you'd like. Happens to me like two times a week these days.
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PQG will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #2235 on: March 13, 2018, 11:06:59 pm »


Cry RIP
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trebor204
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« Reply #2236 on: March 13, 2018, 11:07:37 pm »

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.

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bilaps
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« Reply #2237 on: March 13, 2018, 11:08:05 pm »

It's a win for Lamb. Saccone won election day vote. Lamb wins because of Allegheny absantees.

It's a big win for Dems.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2238 on: March 13, 2018, 11:08:25 pm »

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.



The lastest dump included Westmoreland absentee. So only washington and greene
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2239 on: March 13, 2018, 11:09:08 pm »

Oh noes Cry
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2240 on: March 13, 2018, 11:09:13 pm »

Tax cuts though!
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henster
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« Reply #2241 on: March 13, 2018, 11:09:33 pm »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2242 on: March 13, 2018, 11:10:07 pm »

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.


That's assuming that the absentees match the ED vote, right?

If so, Lamb has done better in absentees in both Allegheny and Westmoreland. I'd imagine it'll stay the same in Washington and Greene.
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emailking
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« Reply #2243 on: March 13, 2018, 11:10:19 pm »


Sad
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marty
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« Reply #2244 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:24 pm »

congrats to the dems of the board!

I am not upset at all. I like Lamb from the speeches I heard and youtube stuff I watched on him.

Very exciting night!

In the grand scheme of things, this election is pointless, and imo, a waste of money. I know by law there needs to be a special election, but all this money and time for a seat that expires in 8 months...meh.

congrats to all the red avatars.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2245 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:26 pm »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

No, he should stay. We need him to lose by a lot to sink Costello, Rothfus and Fitzpatrick.
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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #2246 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:36 pm »

114 GOP seats that are less Republican than this one. November just might be a bloodbath of epic proportions.

The all time record for seat pickups is 130 in the 1896 midterms.
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« Reply #2247 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:48 pm »

I hate how I found out Hawking died through the PredictIt comments...
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adrac
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« Reply #2248 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:05 pm »


What a way to end the night...
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marty
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« Reply #2249 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:20 pm »


I really really doubt the tax cuts played a role here.

Polling shows around 51% of Americans support it, but it will not end up being a midterm savior.
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