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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127468 times)
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #2100 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:08 pm »

Well this is a nailbiter.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2101 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:40 pm »

Drew Miller is such a savage on twitter

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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #2102 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:40 pm »

So it ain't over 'til it's over.

Also, I thought Allegheny's absentees were supposed to come in at midnight, it's an hour early.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #2103 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:54 pm »

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2104 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:02 pm »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

He can't net 100 in Greene if there are only 200 ballots. That would be a huge overperformance compared to on-the-day results. If absentees are the same as on-the-day (and they were significantly better than on-the-day for Lamb in Allegheny), Saccone nets 30-35 votes from Greene.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2105 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:24 pm »

Quote
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I'm calling it a night.  Stay safe, folks. Smiley
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2106 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:42 pm »

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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2107 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:52 pm »

So it ain't over 'til it's over.

Also, I thought Allegheny's absentees were supposed to come in at midnight, it's an hour early.


Allegheny always counts quickly, they were just being cautious. About an hour CNN reported that the results would come before 11:30.
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money printer go brrr
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #2108 on: March 13, 2018, 10:15:15 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

Yeah it's the rust belt... a very elastic area if the country. Dems will continue on with "muh rich Atlanta suburbs" strategy o/c.

Huh

Dems win a seat in a competitive area where they performed poorly in 2016 and your reaction is that they're not going to follow through in a GE?

Besides, the fact that Dems won this seat when Trump has tailored parts of his presidency specifically to curry favor with this demographic region is bad news for Republicans nationwide next year.


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??

ah I thought he won regular votes there by a similar margin but it looks like he only won there like 58-41... okay yeah I feel pretty good calling this one Smiley
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Mondale
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« Reply #2109 on: March 13, 2018, 10:15:43 pm »

+1 D for impeachment/hating God
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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2110 on: March 13, 2018, 10:16:19 pm »

Yep, Lamb has prevailed!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2111 on: March 13, 2018, 10:16:49 pm »

D+1.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2112 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:01 pm »

These are only the absentees sent out, not returned. Could be much fewer, which makes Saccone's margin for error much smaller.
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Joey1996
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« Reply #2113 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:20 pm »

Safe to say Lamb pulled this one out?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2114 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:26 pm »

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Ses
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« Reply #2115 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:41 pm »

D+1
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2116 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:51 pm »

Collier district 5 looks very out of place. Plus it swung to Saccone while everything around swung towards Lamb...

It's very republican - Trump +39 district. Looks fine to me. Don't know why NYT says it swung to Saccone.

But if you see something sketchy, atlas people, please say something. I'm poring through the outlier looking precincts to see if anything looks weird.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2117 on: March 13, 2018, 10:18:24 pm »

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money printer go brrr
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #2118 on: March 13, 2018, 10:18:56 pm »

Collier district 5 looks very out of place. Plus it swung to Saccone while everything around swung towards Lamb...

It's very republican - Trump +39 district. Looks fine to me. Don't know why NYT says it swung to Saccone.

But if you see something sketchy, atlas people, please say something. I'm poring through the outlier looking precincts to see if anything looks weird.

wulfric is on it, I'm sure
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Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #2119 on: March 13, 2018, 10:19:29 pm »



Big if big
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2120 on: March 13, 2018, 10:19:41 pm »

Waiting for the AP now
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #2121 on: March 13, 2018, 10:20:11 pm »

Why doesnt NYT have Westmoreland precincts on the map?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #2122 on: March 13, 2018, 10:20:26 pm »

Several weeks ago Someone said that Sconne was running as a Trumper.  Tonight someone said he was running as a Bushie.  Which is correct?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2123 on: March 13, 2018, 10:20:29 pm »

These are only the absentees sent out, not returned. Could be much fewer, which makes Saccone's margin for error much smaller.

This is also the numbers sent out...yeah I don't see Saccone pulling this back until we enter the black box of the expected recount. Even there, Dems dominate all the county boards so, hard to see any shenangians happening
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kph14
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« Reply #2124 on: March 13, 2018, 10:20:35 pm »

AP won't call it tonight
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