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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127467 times)
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #2075 on: March 13, 2018, 10:07:46 pm »

Razor-tight special House election race. Hmm...

Looks like PA Democrats are energized.
Even though Lamb will (*almost definitely*) win by a razor thin margin, that's still a massive D swing.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2076 on: March 13, 2018, 10:07:58 pm »

CNN says 3206 absentees in the other 3 counties.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2077 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:04 pm »

Lamb should have this.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2078 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:09 pm »

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LAMB APPARENT WINNER

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Conor Lamb
Democrat
111,875   49.9%
   
Rick Saccone
Republican
111,028   49.5   
Drew Miller
Libertarian
1,351   0.6   
224,254 votes, 99% reporting (591 of 593 precincts)
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2079 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:14 pm »

PROJECTION:


Conor Lamb
Dem.
111,875   49.9%


Rick Saccone
Rep.
111,028   49.5

Drew Miller
Lib.
B-but what about Westmoreland?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2080 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:21 pm »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2081 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:28 pm »

DDHQ says the last 2 Westmoreland precincts are:

Latrobe, 2nd ward
Ligonier (North Ligonier)

These and their absentees will report within the next hour.

Latrobe appears to be a pretty decent area for Lamb. Ligonier is going to be pretty Republican.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2082 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:30 pm »

DDHQ says the last 2 Westmoreland precincts are:

Latrobe, 2nd ward
Ligonier (North Ligonier)

These and their absentees will report within the next hour.

Ligonier probably leans Saccone, and Latrobe Lamb. So, Saccone needs some absentees from the rest of the counties.
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Representative ReaganClinton
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« Reply #2083 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:40 pm »

Projecting it for Lamb
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UncleSam
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« Reply #2084 on: March 13, 2018, 10:09:11 pm »

So its 850 votes for Lamb with around 4k votes left (including absentees) to count in R-leaning counties from what I'm understanding

Lamb should win but it'll be way close
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2085 on: March 13, 2018, 10:09:18 pm »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2086 on: March 13, 2018, 10:09:52 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #2087 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:03 pm »

PA absentees lean Dem, too. I just don't see how Saccone makes up 847 votes.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2088 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:06 pm »

*Drew Miller right now*
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #2089 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:26 pm »

Santorum basically conceding on CNN.
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money printer go brrr
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« Reply #2090 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:31 pm »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2091 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:35 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...
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Ses
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« Reply #2092 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:00 pm »


Thanks Drew!
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2093 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:17 pm »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.

Got it.

Does seem like Lamb wins at this point. Can't see Saccone managing 848 votes net from maybe 3000 absentee ballots, max.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2094 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:51 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

I'm not overconfident, I'm just pointing out what this election means for the midterms. If Saccone pulls off a narrow victory, it would still be a bad sign for the Republicans.
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DTC
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« Reply #2095 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:03 pm »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.

Got it.

Does seem like Lamb wins at this point. Can't see Saccone managing 848 votes net from maybe 3000 absentee ballots, max.

Yeah, and the Allegheny absentee ballots leaned dem by 10% more than the county at large.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #2096 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:09 pm »

So its 850 votes for Lamb with around 4k votes left (including absentees) to count in R-leaning counties from what I'm understanding

Lamb should win but it'll be way close

I am feeling good that you are correct.
But we need to hear from the other 2 precincts and the other counties absentees.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2097 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:20 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

I'm not overconfident, I'm just pointing out what this election means for the midterms. If Saccone pulls off a narrow victory, it would still be a bad sign for the Republicans.
Ik, just talking about tonight
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Holmes
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« Reply #2098 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:21 pm »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??
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Beet
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« Reply #2099 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:36 pm »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

Yeah it's the rust belt... a very elastic area if the country. Dems will continue on with "muh rich Atlanta suburbs" strategy o/c.
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