PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:26:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 79 80 81 82 83 [84] 85 86 87 88 89 ... 103
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197728 times)
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,862
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2075 on: March 13, 2018, 10:09:18 PM »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2076 on: March 13, 2018, 10:09:52 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2077 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:03 PM »

PA absentees lean Dem, too. I just don't see how Saccone makes up 847 votes.
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2078 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:06 PM »

*Drew Miller right now*
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2079 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:26 PM »

Santorum basically conceding on CNN.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,416
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2080 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:31 PM »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2081 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:35 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2082 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:00 PM »


Thanks Drew!
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,285


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2083 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:17 PM »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.

Got it.

Does seem like Lamb wins at this point. Can't see Saccone managing 848 votes net from maybe 3000 absentee ballots, max.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2084 on: March 13, 2018, 10:11:51 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

I'm not overconfident, I'm just pointing out what this election means for the midterms. If Saccone pulls off a narrow victory, it would still be a bad sign for the Republicans.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,201


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2085 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:03 PM »

Alleghaney Absentee

1930 Lamb
1178 Snowcone

Is that all of the absentees? I thought there were supposed to be ~4200 in Allegheny.

That many were sent out I believe. These were returned.

Got it.

Does seem like Lamb wins at this point. Can't see Saccone managing 848 votes net from maybe 3000 absentee ballots, max.

Yeah, and the Allegheny absentee ballots leaned dem by 10% more than the county at large.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2086 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:09 PM »

So its 850 votes for Lamb with around 4k votes left (including absentees) to count in R-leaning counties from what I'm understanding

Lamb should win but it'll be way close

I am feeling good that you are correct.
But we need to hear from the other 2 precincts and the other counties absentees.
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2087 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:20 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

I'm not overconfident, I'm just pointing out what this election means for the midterms. If Saccone pulls off a narrow victory, it would still be a bad sign for the Republicans.
Ik, just talking about tonight
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2088 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:21 PM »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,805


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2089 on: March 13, 2018, 10:12:36 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

Yeah it's the rust belt... a very elastic area if the country. Dems will continue on with "muh rich Atlanta suburbs" strategy o/c.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2090 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:08 PM »

Well this is a nailbiter.
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2091 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:40 PM »

Drew Miller is such a savage on twitter

Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2092 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:40 PM »

So it ain't over 'til it's over.

Also, I thought Allegheny's absentees were supposed to come in at midnight, it's an hour early.

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2093 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:54 PM »

Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,285


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2094 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:02 PM »


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

He can't net 100 in Greene if there are only 200 ballots. That would be a huge overperformance compared to on-the-day results. If absentees are the same as on-the-day (and they were significantly better than on-the-day for Lamb in Allegheny), Saccone nets 30-35 votes from Greene.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,353


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2095 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:24 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm calling it a night.  Stay safe, folks. Smiley
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2096 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:42 PM »

Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2097 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:52 PM »

So it ain't over 'til it's over.

Also, I thought Allegheny's absentees were supposed to come in at midnight, it's an hour early.


Allegheny always counts quickly, they were just being cautious. About an hour CNN reported that the results would come before 11:30.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,416
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2098 on: March 13, 2018, 10:15:15 PM »

The outcome of this election is bad, bad news for the Republicans. I am now convinced that the House of Representatives will almost certainly flip this year. Losing a district Trump won by 20 points...that is a major shift.
Let's not get overconfident...anything is still possible...

Yeah it's the rust belt... a very elastic area if the country. Dems will continue on with "muh rich Atlanta suburbs" strategy o/c.

Huh

Dems win a seat in a competitive area where they performed poorly in 2016 and your reaction is that they're not going to follow through in a GE?

Besides, the fact that Dems won this seat when Trump has tailored parts of his presidency specifically to curry favor with this demographic region is bad news for Republicans nationwide next year.


Saccone needs to pull 850 votes out of the remaining 3200. I think he'll net about 100 absentee votes in Greene but probably not enough in the other two to make up for it. I'm still really nervous about calling this though.

You think he wins absentees in Greene 75-25??

ah I thought he won regular votes there by a similar margin but it looks like he only won there like 58-41... okay yeah I feel pretty good calling this one Smiley
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2099 on: March 13, 2018, 10:15:43 PM »

+1 D for impeachment/hating God
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 79 80 81 82 83 [84] 85 86 87 88 89 ... 103  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 11 queries.