|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 05, 2020, 04:35:13 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 46 47 48 49 50 [51] 52 53 54 55 56 ... 104 Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127690 times)
Classic Conservative
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,648



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1250 on: March 13, 2018, 04:42:05 pm »


I don't want to jump the gun, but I agree. We have seen nothing but good news for Lamb, both today and the past week. And there is no way Saccone is going to win with how high that turnout is getting.
I agree as well. My only pause is turnout in the other counties, which we have mostly no idea about, but most definitely aren't going to be hitting high levels of participation.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1251 on: March 13, 2018, 04:42:31 pm »

Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.



It's their approximation of a 50/50 race. If a candidate exceeds the benchmark in a precinct, it'll move the needle in their favor, and vice-versa.

Ah, I see, thanks.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,151
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1252 on: March 13, 2018, 04:43:42 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So even they seem to be bracing for a loss
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1253 on: March 13, 2018, 04:44:56 pm »

Which will be annoying if Saccone wins, smart on their part.
Logged
#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,623
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1254 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:13 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So eveb they seem to be bracing for a loss

I saw that. They keep sharing the exact same screenshot of a text message: "They said I couldn't vote because I've been redistricted." No name or time, and claim it's happening all over the district.


Btw, it's not just Limo that hates that guy. It's also me and a few other Atlasians. The buffoons over at PredictIt make fun of him all the time.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,950


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1255 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:37 pm »

Yeah I'm getting to a point where I'll be really shocked if Lamb loses

We should still remain cautiously optimistic. Saccone could still win, but turnout exceeding expectations makes that very hard to believe. Let's also remember Monmouth has an A+ rating from 538 and they said that Conor should win by a comfortable margin if turnout is high.

Yes, but don't forget that little thing called Margin of Error.  Even in the most favorable model for Lamb, the race was within MoE.
Logged
Classic Conservative
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,648



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1256 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:58 pm »

I think the most obvious sign is that Democratic voters, especially those in Clinton areas, are very energized and ready to vote, many Trump Democrats are still looking for a change agent in our system and not somebody from the political caste, and candidates do matter, this was painfully obvious here and Alabama.
Logged
Classic Conservative
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,648



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1257 on: March 13, 2018, 04:46:59 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So eveb they seem to be bracing for a loss

I saw that. They keep sharing the exact same screenshot of a text message: "They said I couldn't vote because I've been redistricted." No name or time, and claim it's happening all over the district.
I think it's mostly people who were in surrounding communities especially in rural areas and the new PA-14.
Logged
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,164
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1258 on: March 13, 2018, 04:48:29 pm »

Getting tons of AL flashbacks.
Logged
Hoosier_Nick
Nicholas_Roberts
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 766
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.03, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1259 on: March 13, 2018, 04:53:41 pm »

This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?



Clinton lost by 30 and Obama lost by 22. Benchmark model says Lamb will need to only lose by 9 to win (in a universal swing ofc)
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,500


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1260 on: March 13, 2018, 04:54:07 pm »

This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?



Ok found some info. Was a 62-32 Trump district in 2016 with 676 votes. 400 is pretty damn good so far! Pretty sure this precinct is gonna be Saccone country, as he represents it in the state house.
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,500


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1261 on: March 13, 2018, 04:55:17 pm »

Ngl I get off on these tweets

Logged
#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,623
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1262 on: March 13, 2018, 04:55:21 pm »

If I was Lamb right now, I would be feeling very confident.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,994


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1263 on: March 13, 2018, 04:59:53 pm »

If I was Lamb right now, I would be feeling very confident.

I want Lamb to win, but it would be really funny to see how much crow you will have to eat after the past week if Saccone wins. Smiley
Logged
#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,623
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1264 on: March 13, 2018, 05:01:24 pm »

Two hours left!
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,757


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1265 on: March 13, 2018, 05:09:18 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?
Logged
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,164
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1266 on: March 13, 2018, 05:10:30 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Not to my immediate memory.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,297


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1267 on: March 13, 2018, 05:11:53 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,500


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1268 on: March 13, 2018, 05:13:24 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Mark Critz in 2010 might fit the bill as well, though it wasn't a massive upset that he won.
Logged
MB
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,254
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1269 on: March 13, 2018, 05:17:55 pm »

What time do the results come in officially?
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
LibertarianRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,047
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1270 on: March 13, 2018, 05:18:44 pm »

What time do the results come in officially?

Around 8:20 PM EST
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,027
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1271 on: March 13, 2018, 05:19:46 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?
Hochul in 2011, and Bill Owens in 2009
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1272 on: March 13, 2018, 05:21:32 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?



Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Best example I can think of
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,568
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1273 on: March 13, 2018, 05:21:49 pm »

Logged
Hoosier_Nick
Nicholas_Roberts
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 766
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.03, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1274 on: March 13, 2018, 05:23:07 pm »

Also, somebody posted this early, but it's super handy so I'll recommend it again: Benchmarks for Lamb per precinct:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TTQPU3facejYEkSyE7nzCclRHML56jQhM4hOGit87sE/htmlview#
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 46 47 48 49 50 [51] 52 53 54 55 56 ... 104 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines