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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127696 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #1225 on: March 13, 2018, 04:15:33 pm »

I can't help but think that Lamb needs more out of Allegheny if Westmoreland is keeping pace with it, but we will see in a few hours...

Reports have indicated that Allegheny (above 30%) is higher than they thought and Westmoreland (lower than 30%) is lower than they thought.

Obviously this could all change and/or be wrong.
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« Reply #1226 on: March 13, 2018, 04:16:34 pm »



I fail to see how Saccone would win with turnout exceeding expectations.
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DTC
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« Reply #1227 on: March 13, 2018, 04:18:29 pm »



I fail to see how Saccone would win with turnout exceeding expectations.

Obviously it's a red wave of Republicans for Saccone
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« Reply #1228 on: March 13, 2018, 04:19:22 pm »



I fail to see how Saccone would win with turnout exceeding expectations.

Obviously it's a red wave of Republicans for Saccone

The buffoons over at PredictIt would love to believe that!
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1229 on: March 13, 2018, 04:20:03 pm »

Ok! Everyone is getting off work and school. Let's light up this thread!
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1230 on: March 13, 2018, 04:20:19 pm »

Turnout in Westmoreland county might be slipping:



Westmoreland is heavily Republican.
Glorious news!
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1231 on: March 13, 2018, 04:22:48 pm »

Hello! This is where Lamb will rack up massive margins.

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« Reply #1232 on: March 13, 2018, 04:27:00 pm »

Looking good...



50% turnout in Lebanon... that is... fantastic.

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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #1233 on: March 13, 2018, 04:27:09 pm »

Hello! This is where Lamb will rack up massive margins.


It's so weird seeing you being optimistic
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marty
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« Reply #1234 on: March 13, 2018, 04:27:44 pm »

I am continuously amazed at how many turnout reports twitter gives us for every little election

Sometimes they matter, sometimes not, but i do not remember this in past elections
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1235 on: March 13, 2018, 04:28:17 pm »

We got less than 3 hours till the polls close and because I'm evil I feel compelled to remind you all of this https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1236 on: March 13, 2018, 04:28:22 pm »

Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.

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« Reply #1237 on: March 13, 2018, 04:28:57 pm »

Mt. Lebanon just exceeded 50%... that's Lamb's hometown and it's the BLUEST of them all. Imagine the turnout in the other cities and towns.
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History505
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« Reply #1238 on: March 13, 2018, 04:29:45 pm »

Looking good...



50% turnout in Lebanon... that is... fantastic.


Energized voters.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1239 on: March 13, 2018, 04:31:43 pm »

The Ward 1 precincts that vote at Lincoln Elementary in Mt. Lebanon all went for Clinton by 60-65% of the vote.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1240 on: March 13, 2018, 04:32:59 pm »

The Ward 1 precincts that vote at Lincoln Elementary in Mt. Lebanon all went for Clinton by 60-65% of the vote.

Yep. Lamb is getting 75%+ here. Extremely well-known and extremely well liked.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1241 on: March 13, 2018, 04:35:09 pm »

It's quite clear that Lamb will win.
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« Reply #1242 on: March 13, 2018, 04:35:35 pm »

If he is exceeding 50% in Mt. Lebanon, just imagine what turnout will be for southern Allegheny by the end of the night...
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #1243 on: March 13, 2018, 04:35:59 pm »

What time do polls close? 7?
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« Reply #1244 on: March 13, 2018, 04:36:21 pm »


I don't want to jump the gun, but I agree. We have seen nothing but good news for Lamb, both today and the past week. And there is no way Saccone is going to win with how high that turnout is getting.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1245 on: March 13, 2018, 04:37:01 pm »


8 ET.
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History505
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« Reply #1246 on: March 13, 2018, 04:38:51 pm »

What is the biggest margin Lamb could win by if he outperforms?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1247 on: March 13, 2018, 04:38:54 pm »

Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.



It's their approximation of a 50/50 race. If a candidate exceeds the benchmark in a precinct, it'll move the needle in their favor, and vice-versa.
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« Reply #1248 on: March 13, 2018, 04:39:24 pm »

What is the biggest margin Lamb could win by if he outperforms?

I am gonna be bold and say 7. These turnout reports are FANTASTIC.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1249 on: March 13, 2018, 04:41:24 pm »


7pm Bagel time.
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