PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 141411 times)
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #100 on: March 13, 2018, 09:27:24 PM »

Peters in Washington county is going to put Saccone over the top. He'll lead pending absentee ballots, by around 200 votes. Calling it now.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #101 on: March 13, 2018, 09:35:00 PM »

Basicallly all the remaining Wash co precincts are surrounded by precincts that netted Saccone 100 votes, if not more.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #102 on: March 13, 2018, 09:46:07 PM »

Again, Saccone will make up those 750 votes in the remaining Washington county precincts. Absentees will decide the race.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #103 on: March 13, 2018, 09:50:39 PM »

I think this his how it goes

  • Saccone wins ED voting up by about 300 votes
  • In absentee ballots, Lamb nets 700 from Allegheny
  • Saccone nets 500 from Washington, Greene, and Westmoreland

So Saccone wins by about 100 votes?
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #104 on: March 13, 2018, 09:55:13 PM »

Wow, I was very wrong about Peters Township. Thought it would net Saccone much more. Crow is being eaten.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #105 on: March 13, 2018, 09:56:56 PM »

If absentees come in as expected, Lamb should win in a crazy close squeaker.  Like 200-300 votes maybe?

It really depends on how they lean. 2016 election had absentees pretty significantly more democratic than the election day vote itself. But we can't know for sure for this election.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2018, 10:17:51 PM »

Collier district 5 looks very out of place. Plus it swung to Saccone while everything around swung towards Lamb...

It's very republican - Trump +39 district. Looks fine to me. Don't know why NYT says it swung to Saccone.

But if you see something sketchy, atlas people, please say something. I'm poring through the outlier looking precincts to see if anything looks weird.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #107 on: March 13, 2018, 10:40:08 PM »

He did it. I doubted it at the end, but he did it. It feels damn good.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #108 on: March 13, 2018, 10:51:48 PM »

Costello is going to get destroyed if he doesn't retire.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #109 on: March 13, 2018, 10:56:13 PM »

More
According to a source, one of the outstanding precincts (N. Ligonier, Westmoreland Co.) voted Saccone (R) 479-285. That's about what we expected, and it's consistent w/ Lamb (D) lead holding at around 400-600 votes.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973768397174517760

Lamb lead now down to 653. Probably will end up around 500 +/-100
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #110 on: March 13, 2018, 10:57:38 PM »

Both Westmoreland precincts in: Lamb lead goes from 847 to 579. Positioned to win with absentee ballots still uncounted in Washington, Westmoreland, and Greene counties.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #111 on: March 13, 2018, 10:59:43 PM »

More
According to a source, one of the outstanding precincts (N. Ligonier, Westmoreland Co.) voted Saccone (R) 479-285. That's about what we expected, and it's consistent w/ Lamb (D) lead holding at around 400-600 votes.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973768397174517760

Lamb lead now down to 653. Probably will end up around 500 +/-100
Ahh, the real LimoLiberal is back!

Wut? I'm literally saying Lamb is going to win.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #112 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:26 PM »

Lou Barletta should drop out tomorrow.

No, he should stay. We need him to lose by a lot to sink Costello, Rothfus and Fitzpatrick.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #113 on: March 13, 2018, 11:26:46 PM »


Freedom map.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #114 on: March 13, 2018, 11:45:01 PM »

Conor looking like a snack Smiley

https://www.c-span.org/video/?442500-1/conor-lamb-addresses-supporters-votes-counted-house-race
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #115 on: March 13, 2018, 11:52:11 PM »


It's fine. The best part was when he reasserted his commitment to organized labor. He could be a major power player for organized labor in Congress if he stays around.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #116 on: March 13, 2018, 11:57:48 PM »

Honestly I'm all in for a politico long piece about "the union democrats" - Sherrod Brown, Conor Lamb, Richard Ojeda.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #117 on: March 14, 2018, 12:04:23 AM »

I'd put 5 bucks down on Costello retiring as soon as the new map is upheld.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,377


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #118 on: March 14, 2018, 12:12:18 AM »

Gina Cerilli, this is your time.

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