MO Senate: Talent, McCaskill tied in new Rasmussen Poll

[Jake]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

[Alcon]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

Generally, the only reason is if the challenger is significant more popular.  It's not common, but it's not like it never happens that a reasonably popular incumbent is kicked out by an even more popular challenger.  Just ask William Roth (but don't expect him to answer).

[TheresNoMoney]

Buyers remorse in choosing Blunt over McCaskill in last year's gubernatorial race.

Oppostion to Social Security phaseout.  Support of emybronic stem cell research. Dissatisfaction with the country's direction in general, of which Talent is closely linked to the president and administration. Economic worries about the future.

Plus the fact that Claire is well known and well-liked in the state.

[Keystone Phil]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

Generally, the only reason is if the challenger is significant more popular.  It's not common, but it's not like it never happens that a reasonably popular incumbent is kicked out by an even more popular challenger.  Just ask William Roth (but don't expect him to answer).

That's the point. McCaskill is not a more popular challenger.

[King]

Plus the fact that Claire is well known and well-liked in the state.

What are Claire's favoribility/approval ratings compared to Talent's in Missouri?  I can't just take the word of somebody who lives in New Hampshire as fact.

[Alcon]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

Generally, the only reason is if the challenger is significant more popular.  It's not common, but it's not like it never happens that a reasonably popular incumbent is kicked out by an even more popular challenger.  Just ask William Roth (but don't expect him to answer).

That's the point. McCaskill is not a more popular challenger.

I would seriously doubt Rasmussen is off more than 6 points, and even if she's just six behind, she has to be reasonably popular to be competing with Talent.

Unless there is some other reason you see, or you think this poll is just totally out there...and Rasmussen is never that wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

Generally, the only reason is if the challenger is significant more popular.  It's not common, but it's not like it never happens that a reasonably popular incumbent is kicked out by an even more popular challenger.  Just ask William Roth (but don't expect him to answer).

That's the point. McCaskill is not a more popular challenger.

I would seriously doubt Rasmussen is off more than 6 points, and even if she's just six behind, she has to be reasonably popular to be competing with Talent.

Unless there is some other reason you see, or you think this poll is just totally out there...and Rasmussen is never that wrong.

It makes no sense to me how she can be tied with Talent. Talent is pretty well liked and is not facing an above average opponent. I don't buy that this race is tied.

[Alcon]

What are his vulnerabilities? Why would Missouri throw him out of office? Scoonie has provided nothing more than approval ratings which are low across the board because of a general disapproval of Congress.

Generally, the only reason is if the challenger is significant more popular.  It's not common, but it's not like it never happens that a reasonably popular incumbent is kicked out by an even more popular challenger.  Just ask William Roth (but don't expect him to answer).

That's the point. McCaskill is not a more popular challenger.

I would seriously doubt Rasmussen is off more than 6 points, and even if she's just six behind, she has to be reasonably popular to be competing with Talent.

Unless there is some other reason you see, or you think this poll is just totally out there...and Rasmussen is never that wrong.

It makes no sense to me how she can be tied with Talent. Talent is pretty well liked and is not facing an above average opponent. I don't buy that this race is tied.

State Auditors are generally not polled for approval ratings, but what's to say she is not popular in the state?  Where are you getting the information from that she is not above average?

After all, she beat Matt Blunt.

[Keystone Phil]

State Auditors are generally not polled for approval ratings, but what's to say she is not popular in the state?  Where are you getting the information from that she is not above average?

After all, she beat Matt Blunt.

Not above average in that I highly doubt her name is that powerful in the state. I don't see how someone with mediocre name ID can beat a popular incumbent.

And, no, she didn't beat Matt Blunt.

[Alcon]

State Auditors are generally not polled for approval ratings, but what's to say she is not popular in the state?  Where are you getting the information from that she is not above average?

After all, she beat Matt Blunt.

Not above average in that I highly doubt her name is that powerful in the state. I don't see how someone with mediocre name ID can beat a popular incumbent.

And, no, she didn't beat Matt Blunt.

Wow, I'm truly stupid today.

I meant to say that she only lost to Blunt 51-48.  That isn't a bad showing.

I think she is losing, too, but you never know.

I'll wait for another poll.

[Keystone Phil]

State Auditors are generally not polled for approval ratings, but what's to say she is not popular in the state?  Where are you getting the information from that she is not above average?

After all, she beat Matt Blunt.

Not above average in that I highly doubt her name is that powerful in the state. I don't see how someone with mediocre name ID can beat a popular incumbent.

And, no, she didn't beat Matt Blunt.

Wow, I'm truly stupid today.

I meant to say that she only lost to Blunt 51-48.  That isn't a bad showing.

I think she is losing, too, but you never know.

I'll wait for another poll.

That isn't a bad showing, I agree, but it's nothing amazing. She has to be a Casey-like candidate to beat a popular candidate. I'd say right now it looks like...

Talent - 52%
McCaskill - 47%
Others - 1%

[Alcon]

State Auditors are generally not polled for approval ratings, but what's to say she is not popular in the state?  Where are you getting the information from that she is not above average?

After all, she beat Matt Blunt.

Not above average in that I highly doubt her name is that powerful in the state. I don't see how someone with mediocre name ID can beat a popular incumbent.

And, no, she didn't beat Matt Blunt.

Wow, I'm truly stupid today.

I meant to say that she only lost to Blunt 51-48.  That isn't a bad showing.

I think she is losing, too, but you never know.

I'll wait for another poll.

That isn't a bad showing, I agree, but it's nothing amazing. She has to be a Casey-like candidate to beat a popular candidate. I'd say right now it looks like...

Talent - 52%
McCaskill - 47%
Others - 1%

She doesn't necessarily need to be Casey-like.  One major factor to consider is that Talent is a first-term Senator, and opinions about him are less likely to be cemented as with Santorum.  In addition, Missouri has less risk in replacing Talent because he is a freshman and doesn't have much power in Washington.

It would, however, take a very popular candidate, which McCaskill may theoretically be.

[Keystone Phil]

She doesn't necessarily need to be Casey-like.  One major factor to consider is that Talent is a first-term Senator, and opinions about him are less likely to be cemented as with Santorum.  In addition, Missouri has less risk in replacing Talent because he is a freshman and doesn't have much power in Washington.

It would, however, take a very popular candidate, which McCaskill may theoretically be.

That's still no reason to get rid of Talent who, as I keep saying, remains popular.

McCaskill is not popular enough to take down Talent.

[Alcon]

She doesn't necessarily need to be Casey-like.  One major factor to consider is that Talent is a first-term Senator, and opinions about him are less likely to be cemented as with Santorum.  In addition, Missouri has less risk in replacing Talent because he is a freshman and doesn't have much power in Washington.

It would, however, take a very popular candidate, which McCaskill may theoretically be.

That's still no reason to get rid of Talent who, as I keep saying, remains popular.

McCaskill is not popular enough to take down Talent.

What do you base this on what?  She's a known entity and Blunt was very popular when elected (much moreso than Talent is now, if I recall correctly)...so I don't think it's a total longshot.

But I'll wait for another poll.

[Smash255]

She doesn't necessarily need to be Casey-like.  One major factor to consider is that Talent is a first-term Senator, and opinions about him are less likely to be cemented as with Santorum.  In addition, Missouri has less risk in replacing Talent because he is a freshman and doesn't have much power in Washington.

It would, however, take a very popular candidate, which McCaskill may theoretically be.

That's still no reason to get rid of Talent who, as I keep saying, remains popular.

McCaskill is not popular enough to take down Talent.

His Approval is hovering around the 50% mark, not bad, but not exactly all that good either

[opebo]

She doesn't necessarily need to be Casey-like.  One major factor to consider is that Talent is a first-term Senator, and opinions about him are less likely to be cemented as with Santorum.  In addition, Missouri has less risk in replacing Talent because he is a freshman and doesn't have much power in Washington.

It would, however, take a very popular candidate, which McCaskill may theoretically be.

That's still no reason to get rid of Talent who, as I keep saying, remains popular.

McCaskill is not popular enough to take down Talent.

His Approval is hovering around the 50% mark, not bad, but not exactly all that good either

Talent is not popular.  I don't know where you're getting that, Keystone Phil.  He was narrowly elected and remains at about 50%, as Smash points out.  There is an enormous amount of hostility to Bush building in this state, as well as to Blount.  This doesn't mean MO is turning Democratic, just that the mood here is anti-incumbent, and most people are blaming Bush, Blount, and the GOP for the miserable economic conditions they see around them.

McGaskill has a fairly good chance though I'm sure the posters above who predict her being massively outspent are correct.

[Keystone Phil]

Talent is not popular.  I don't know where you're getting that, Keystone Phil.  He was narrowly elected and remains at about 50%, as Smash points out.  There is an enormous amount of hostility to Bush building in this state, as well as to Blount.  This doesn't mean MO is turning Democratic, just that the mood here is anti-incumbent, and most people are blaming Bush, Blount, and the GOP for the miserable economic conditions they see around them.

McGaskill has a fairly good chance though I'm sure the posters above who predict her being massively outspent are correct.

There is a great amount of hostility towards Bush in Missouri? Really? And how would you know this?

I don't care that Talent is not incredibly popular. You are missing the point that McCaskill is not popular enough to beat an incumbent Senator.

[Moooooo]

You are missing the point that McCaskill is not popular enough to beat an incumbent Senator.

Neither was Wellstone.  Now, Im not saying McCaskill is the next Paul Wellstone or anything, but you cant assume the challenger in every race has to be wildly popular in order to knock off the incumbent.  Wellstone probably had a name ID of 2% when entered the race and by the end he was the winner.  Who would have thought?

[TheresNoMoney]

If they are already tied in a Republican-leaning poll with 14 months to go until the election, it is ludicrous to think that she can't win.

[Alcon]

If they are already tied in a Republican-leaning poll with 14 months to go until the election, it is ludicrous to think that she can't win.

Stop it, stop it, stop it!

Rasmussen is not Republican-leaning!  It has virutally no bias, and if it does, it's less than a point toward the GOP, which is not considerable enough to be considered bias.

Just because it is owned by a Republican does not make it Republican-leaning.

[TheresNoMoney]

Chill out, Alcon.

OK, a non-partisan poll. Happy now??

[ATFFL]

Chill out, Alcon.

OK, a non-partisan poll. Happy now??

You can also call him libertarian since he did some paid work for them in the past.

[Keystone Phil]

You are missing the point that McCaskill is not popular enough to beat an incumbent Senator.

Neither was Wellstone.  Now, Im not saying McCaskill is the next Paul Wellstone or anything, but you cant assume the challenger in every race has to be wildly popular in order to knock off the incumbent.  Wellstone probably had a name ID of 2% when entered the race and by the end he was the winner.  Who would have thought?

Wellstone was charismatic and I have a feeling that the Republican incumbent (Borshwitz or something like that) had some serious flaws.

[opebo]

There is a great amount of hostility towards Bush in Missouri? Really? And how would you know this?

Because I see lots of anti-Bush bumper stickers cropping up - upon the pickup trucks of the proles, not just the Volvos of the intelligencia (or what passes for one in Missouri).  I have even seen homemade anti-bush signs on the vehicles of the lumpenproles, which shows an even higher level of anger, as the signs are very crudely made and embarrassing.   Most importantly,  I have seen all of this in towns that have 'Jebus' signs in every other yard.  I realize this is anecdotal, but I think it is meaningful.

I've even had lower class simples burst out in anti-Bush diatribes at the next pump at the gas station (twice now), and once I saw the same thing in the payment line.  I don't think you can overestimate the gas price effect upon these ignorant working class types, Keystone Phil.  Many of these people voted for Bush previously because they were duped by patriotism or hatred of various minority groups.  Now they feel betrayed and misled - basically what is happening to Bush is what happened to Carter.

[Alcon]

Chill out, Alcon.

OK, a non-partisan poll. Happy now??

NO!!!!!!!!

YOU WILL FEEL MY RAGE FOR INSUILTING THE LOVE OF MY LIFE, JOHN RASMUSSEN!!!