FL-GOV: Who wins?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Tough one, in that I expect a good Democratic year but Republicans seem to have the much stronger state party. I'd say it's tilt D right now.

This. The Democratic infrastructure is nonexistent in Florida (compounded by the donor and county-chairpeople base, a huge chunk of whom frankly act like brats, but that's a whole other story), and the Republicans have been churning young white boys out of conservative youth groups for ages. It's a true brain drain for any aspiring young Democratic politico (and part of the reason I'm unsure about coming back home after college). Our new party chairwoman Terrie Rizzo has a history of organizing experience so hopefully she changes this culture.

Graham is favored to win the primary and the general. She's not taking the national mood or her name for granted, she's really setting up a good infrastructure and trying to meet as many voters as possible around the state à la Beto O'Rourke. So she'll likely win, assuming FkfNn John "Morgan" Morgan doesn't stick his anti-vaxxer, cigar-laden hands in the race as an independent to give the race to Putnam.

[Free Bird]

I have quite a few Democrat friends in Florida that aren't even voting now that Morgan is out. They themselves say Graham is more boring than driftwood.

To those voting for her, and I must preface this by saying she wouldn't be an awful governor, have you not learned by now that the FDP are the masters of choking?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I have quite a few Democrat friends in Florida that aren't even voting now that Morgan is out. They themselves say Graham is more boring than driftwood.

You mean like those losers, Ralph Northam and Doug Jones?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Graham wins purely on national environment.

[KingSweden]

I’m leaning Graham - for now - but would not be the least bit surprised if Putnam wins

[Cactus Jack]

I have quite a few Democrat friends in Florida that aren't even voting now that Morgan is out. They themselves say Graham is more boring than driftwood.

They'll change their tune come election time. Undecideds have uniformly broken for the Democrats in every election since summer.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

People from Central Florida (and people from outside of Florida) really overestimate how important John Morgan is. People from South Florida haven't ever even heard of the guy. He's the liberal Trump, and that's not a compliment.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

People from Central Florida (and people from outside of Florida) really overestimate how important John Morgan is. People from South Florida haven't ever even heard of the guy. He's the liberal Trump, and that's not a compliment.

Are you high? Morgan and Morgan is the most iconic law firm in the state! I grew up in Boynton and have been aware of him as long as I have been able to understand what I've been seeing on TV.

[Dr. MB]

I have quite a few Democrat friends in Florida that aren't even voting now that Morgan is out. They themselves say Graham is more boring than driftwood.

To those voting for her, and I must preface this by saying she wouldn't be an awful governor, have you not learned by now that the FDP are the masters of choking?

If I was a Floridian I'd write him in. I completely agree with your friends.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I have quite a few Democrat friends in Florida that aren't even voting now that Morgan is out. They themselves say Graham is more boring than driftwood.

You mean like those losers, Ralph Northam and Doug Jones?

I don't think Northam or Jones were boring - especially not Jones, who ran a very high energy, enthusiastic campaign.

[TheSaint250]

People from Central Florida (and people from outside of Florida) really overestimate how important John Morgan is. People from South Florida haven't ever even heard of the guy. He's the liberal Trump, and that's not a compliment.

I’m in South Florida and he’s one of the most well-known figures down here

[Free Bird]

Graham wins purely on national environment.

I have a letter for you from Charlie Crist in 2006.

[ExFLNewPA]

Graham wins purely on national environment.

And hard work. Many seem to forget her campaign skills. 1/2 Dems to oust a GOP incumbent during a BAD year for Dems. She won in a red year, in a red district, supporting Pro-Choice, Pro-LGBTQ values.  John Morgan's past would've come out in terrible oppo research by either DeSantis or Putnam, and he'd have to disclose wayyyy to much about his finances to run.  He is the most self-important person in Florida.  Graham already has the most supporters of any of the candidates by # of donations. True- the party infrastructure is almost non-existent.  True- FDP has a history of choking. True- Putnam has so much more money. However, none of them are Gwen Graham- the brand new candidate who outperformed Obama's margins among African American voters when she won FL-02. She won't pick Gillum because they share the same base, she'll most likely pick a prominent C.Fla politician, or a South Florida Latinx Male.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

WTF is a Latinx??

[Donerail]

WTF is a Latinx??

tiresome to type "Latino or Latina," weirdly online to type "Latin@." Doesn't really make sense in this context b/c the gender's specified, but whatever.

[136or142]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

[Former Kentuckian]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

lol

[user12345]

WTF is a Latinx??

tiresome to type "Latino or Latina," weirdly online to type "Latin@." Doesn't really make sense in this context b/c the gender's specified, but whatever.

Since Spanish is such a male gender dominated language, changing it to "Latinx" is a way of including more people; referring to people that may not fit into gender norms.

[Breton Racer]

In another year Putnam would win, but in this environment Graham wins by ~2-4%.

[junior chįmp]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

[Former Kentuckian]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

If Gillum becomes Graham's LG nom, I can see her chances improving even more against a wounded DeSantis from the primary.

[Young Conservative]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

If Gillum becomes Graham's LG nom, I can see her chances improving even more against a wounded DeSantis from the primary.

DeSantis has nothing to be wounded on in a Republican primary.

[Former Kentuckian]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

If Gillum becomes Graham's LG nom, I can see her chances improving even more against a wounded DeSantis from the primary.

DeSantis has nothing to be wounded on in a Republican primary.

He'll be spending time, money, and energy to defeat a well-known, well-funded candidate who has won statewide elections before (something he's never done) that he could use against Graham instead. And let's not act like Trump's endorsement is a golden ticket, even in a Republican primary (just ask Luther Strange).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

If Gillum becomes Graham's LG nom, I can see her chances improving even more against a wounded DeSantis from the primary.

DeSantis has nothing to be wounded on in a Republican primary.

He'll be spending time, money, and energy to defeat a well-known, well-funded candidate who has won statewide elections before (something he's never done) that he could use against Graham instead. And let's not act like Trump's endorsement is a golden ticket, even in a Republican primary (just ask Luther Strange).

You're failing to take into account the fact that A) John Morgan is flirting with running on a third party ticket, an B) that Phillip Levine and other Democrats have been waging spirited, fairly well advertised campaigns against Graham.

[Former Kentuckian]

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FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Clownsantis winning the GOP nomination all but guarantees a Graham win. On the plus side, a messy divided primary between Putnam and Santis in which Putnam wins would also help. A win win situation

If Gillum becomes Graham's LG nom, I can see her chances improving even more against a wounded DeSantis from the primary.

DeSantis has nothing to be wounded on in a Republican primary.

He'll be spending time, money, and energy to defeat a well-known, well-funded candidate who has won statewide elections before (something he's never done) that he could use against Graham instead. And let's not act like Trump's endorsement is a golden ticket, even in a Republican primary (just ask Luther Strange).

You're failing to take into account the fact that A) John Morgan is flirting with running on a third party ticket, an B) that Phillip Levine and other Democrats have been waging spirited, fairly well advertised campaigns against Graham.

Keyword is flirting. Unless Morgan actually enters the race, he's a non-factor. And Philip Levine is no Adam Putnam. Adam Putnam has won two statewide elections, and that should make DeSantis nervous. Graham has all but ignored Levine since he entered the race, and that's not surprising. Besides, Levine enters the race with more than a few battle scars that Graham could pick should she choose: http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/11/01/here-are-potential-governor-candidate-philip-levines-vulnerabilities/

Graham is under no threat from Levine or Gillum, which is why they've been vocal about her but she's refused to even acknowledge they exist: http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/11/15/andrew-gillum-camp-struggling-to-raise-money-continues-to-swing-at-gwen-graham/

Graham just has to keep doing what she's doing and raising boatloads of cash until the dust settles: http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/15/gwen-graham-continues-strong-fundraising-donor-numbers/

The Republican primary, on the other hand, will be an all-out brawl, and an expensive one at that.