2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 (user search)
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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24  (Read 38181 times)
LoneStarDem
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Posts: 945
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« on: March 04, 2019, 05:33:34 PM »

Latest TVBS polls have DPP in trouble for the 3/16 by-elections.

In  New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) it has it at

KMT  40
DPP   36

And that is with the DPP candidate Yu(余天) being the former MP from this district and have very high name recognition due to him being an entertainment superstar.   Given both TVBS's pro-Blue bias plus Yu(余天) out sized  name recognition this will be neck-to-neck with a slight KMT edge.


In Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) the TVBS poll is a shock

KMT        38
DPP         26 (New Tide)
DPP rebel 13 (anti-New Tide)

Note that back in 2016 Tsai won 78.1% of the vote in this district which made it her strongest district.  The DPP MP candidate Huang who was just elected Tainan City mayor back in Nov 2018 won 76.5% of the vote (with a minor radical pro-Taiwan independence party winning 2.4% of the vote.)  Even in the KMT landslide of 2008 Huang won here 59.2% to KMT backed NPB 40.8%.

The good news for the DPP is that a lot of undecided must be pro-Ex-Prez Chen Deep Green voters that are still deciding between the DPP candidate and the anti-New Tide DPP rebel.  The bad news is that it seems ex-DPP Prez Chen and Ko both which are out for blood against the New Tid faction are implicitly backing the DPP rebel so the DPP rebel vote would not collapse last minute.  Most likely this will end up neck-to-neck with a slight KMT edge. 

Can the DPP recover in time for the 2020 Presidential Elections ?
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LoneStarDem
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Posts: 945
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2019, 03:51:19 PM »

With Lai getting into the DPP primary it seems Prez Tsai is not backing down so we will have a contested DPP primary.  Everyone seems to think Lai will win easily.  It does not look that way to me.

The pro-Lai pro-Independence think-tank Taiwan Braintruest just came out with a poll which was done before Lai announced.  These numbers are pretty much as good as it is going to get for Lai and as bad it is going to get for the KMT.

DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval:  28.2/53.4
DPP "primary" between Tsai vs Lai: Lai 50.9 Tsai 29.2 (but for DPP supporters it is Lai 48.1 Tsai 43.1)
KMT "primary" between Chu vs Wang vs Wu: Chu 43.8 Wang 33.8 Wu 6.1 (but for KMT supporters it is Chu 67.0 Wang 14.5 Wu 7.8 )
Party support: KMT 36.8 DPP 24.6 NPP 15.6 PFP 1.7 NP 1.2

Prez trial heats
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai: Chu 51.1 Tasi 37.9
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai: Han 50.1 Tsai 41.6 (Han does worse than Chu)
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai: Lai 46.6 Chu 44.1
KMT Han vs DPP Lai: Lai 48.6 Han 44.6
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Chu 33.9 Ko 30.9 Tsai 29.0
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Han 35.4 Tsai 30.6 Ko 27.9
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.1 Chu 31.8  Ko 27.9
KMT Han vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.3 Han 34.7 Ko 24.1

So even the most pro-DPP pro-Lai poll has Lai ahead of Tsai in DPP voters 48.1 vs 43.1.  Even in trial heats Lai does a bit better than Tsai.    This means if Tsai really hits back against Lai over the next month this small gap could be close I can see Tsai winning this "primary."  She might end up being damaged but in March April Tsai and Lai primary campaign would push up media coverage of the DPP race and if Tsai manages to defeat Lai it might even enhance her position relative to Ko and Chu in the general election.  Granted a sitting incumbent facing a primary challenge is not good but Tsai is already in a dire situation and any reshuffling of the cards is a chance for her to improve her position.

One way or another it does not see like a slam dunk that Lai will defeat Tsai in the DPP "primary."  A lot will depend on the rules.  Will it be Lai vs Tsai series pf polls ? Will such polls filter out only DPP supporters?  Will the polls be more Prez trial heats? Either way Tsai is withing striking distance of Lai even in a pro-Lai poll.

Is the DPP in big trouble if Tsai loses the Primary ? I know some anti-Tsai people want the KMT back in control of the Presidential Office Building.
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