2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[Hydera]

3) The anti-gay marriage grand coalition was awesome to behold.  It included various Buddhist, Taoist, Chinese traditionalist, Catholic, Presbyterian and Islamic and cross both Blue and Green political coalitions.    It was a massive gang up of everyone vs urban middle class progressives and the progressives got smashed. A great example of how to form a grand coalition.

Not surprising, theres a let and let live attitude ONLY because parents know they cant do anything about their LGBT kids that move out. But society was always not as accepting as it seems especially since its in Asia where old people still have this "natalist" belief about their kids giving them grandkids. Also globally people tend to underestimate how much of the working class is homophobic considering from the results, higher income places still voted No but not as large of a margin in rural and working class districts in Taiwan.

[Hydera]

I looked at the results for Case 14 and as expected theres zero precints that voted Yes.

http://referendum.2018.nat.gov.tw



Taipei City - 38%
New Taipei City - 34.9%
Hsinchu City - 34.2%
Keelung City - 33.9%
Yilan County - 33.1%
Tainan City - 33%
Kaohsiung City - 32.5%
Chiayi City - 32.1%
Taoyuan City - 31.8%
Taichung City - 31.2%
Pingtung County - 30.6%
Hsinchu county -30.4%
Yunlin county - 29.7%
Chiayi County  - 29.6%
Changhua County - 29%
Penghu county - 28.9%
Miaoli county - 28%
Nantou County - 27%
Hualien County - 26.4%
Taitung County - 25.8%
Lienchang county - 25.4%
Kinmen County - 24.3%

Within Taipei.


Neihu District - 39.1%
Datong District - 38.9%
Zhongshan District - 38.6%
Shilin District - 38.1%
Da’an District - 37.8%
Beitou District - 37.7%
Songshan District - 37.5%
Nangang District - 37.5%
Wanhua District - 37.2%
Xinyi District - 36.7%
Zhongzheng District - 36.1%
Wenshan District - 36.1%



https://web.cw.com.tw/election2018/electorate/index.html?county=63000

Using this map the reason for Neihu being higher(despite it still being pretty low...) is the higher number of young voters there.



Only three districts in Taipei were the vote against marriage being one male and one female reached 40%.

Dahuli, Neihu 40.9%  (In the referendum to allow same sex marriage it was 43.2%, god bless those inconsistent 2.3% of voters)
Zhongyuanli, Zhongshan District 41.3%
Tianshouli, Shilin District 40.1%


Then in the vote to allow same sex marriage there were a few ironic districts that voted Yes to Marriage being one man and one woman AND at the same time to allow same sex marriage


Bojiali, Wenshan 65.3% to first / 45.3%

Considering Bojiali also has a higher number of elderly voters it could just be a lot of elderly voters either voted Yes to everything because they didnt like referendums OR didnt read clearly the one to allow same sex marriage.

[Hydera]

In Keelung there was ONE district that voted against marriage being between one man and one woman.

Zhongxingli, Zhongshan, Keelung 50.2% disagree Yet voting only 33.8% to allow same sex marriage.

Zhongshali, Zhongzheng voted 71.9% FOR marriage being one man and one woman AND 54% to allow same sex marriage.

Theres a few more where this ironically happened.

Renaili, Zhongli, Taoyuan. Agree 50.6% to same sex marriage. 72% agree to marriage being one man and one woman.



Given that in more dense areas like in Taichung where the city areas had less support for marriage being one man and one woman AND at the same time voting in low numbers against a proposal to allow gay marriage while a handful of rural areas voted Yes on both questions it does seem to be a few districts were people just grossed over and voted yes to every question including Case 14 than an actual stance of support for gay marriage.

[Hydera]

A look at the 2 other critical referendum results by city/count are

                                                          Pro-nuclear power    Anti-gay marriage
Total                                                         59.49%                  72.48%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41)    69.36%                  77.66%
Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41)        66.92%                   78.61%
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)        61.45%                   78.19%
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)       60.06%                   78.13%
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)       59.92%                   74.15%
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)          59.99%                   76.79%
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)             59.51%                   72.22%
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)                58.55%                   65.59%
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)             60.58%                  72.77%
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)               59.90%                  69.96%
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)           63.22%                  76.66%
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)             61.97%                  77.74%
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)        59.12%                   70.02%
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)            60.28%                   73.24%
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)     59.54%                  76.19%
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)                  58.48%                  77.35%
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)            59.18%                  73.18%
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)         59.62%                  73.86%
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)           59.94%                   76.17%
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)            58.55%                   76.02%
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)            58.48%                  77.35%
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)            57.61%                  72.80%

There is almost no correlation between Blue/Green PVI and the pro-nuclear power vote even though DPP is clearly against nuclear power and the KMT is clearly open to backing nuclear power.  In super pro-DPP cities like Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) there is lesser support for nuclear power, sane with some super Blue counties for nuclear power.

The anti-gay marriage vote clearly is correlated with level of urbanization.  Correlation with Blue/Green PVI also seem non-existent.  Although some of the places the KMT under-performed did have lower rates of support for the anti-gay marriage position like  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)  despite an anti-KMT lean.  Likewise some of the places the KMT over-performed have high rates of anti-gay marriage support like Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)  and Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) despite an anti-KMT lean.

What about comparing the vote against same sex marriage and the vote for competing in the Tokyo Olympics as Taiwan not Chinese taipei.

[Hydera]

Looking back at previous elections, in Kaohsiung the combined Pan-Blue vote in Kaohsiung including both the county and the city was about in the 700,000s range in 2004-2012.  And even in the 2000 Taiwan election while a lot of Soong voters later became Soft or hard Pan-Green voters the combined Pan-Blue vote was 847,000 just 45,000 short of his vote total, so while it was a uphill battle for Han Kuo yu it wasnt an impossible task for him to win if he could turn out those people who previously voted for Soong in 2000.