Do you think the KMT can survive long-term?
Clearly it can as there will always be a need for a Center-Right mainstream party in ROC. The question is can KMT play that role and survive while keeping some vestiges of its pre-2000 era. Namely can the KMT remain the main Center-Right party of ROC WHILE being A party of Chinese nationalism (in the pre-1970s era the KMT was THE party of Chinese nationalism.)
The answer was fairly cloudy in the 2014-2017 period but by 2018 it is clear that pro-unification sentiment on ROC is recovering due to the problematic tenure of the DPP regime. KMT Chairman Wu(吳敦義) has historically came from the non-unification branch of the KMT and him winning power as the head of the KMT was seen as a trend toward KMT as a Taiwan regionism force (think a DPP clone but more willing to do business with PRC) versus a Chinese nationalist force.
But recently Wu came out strongly for unification in a critique of DPP Prez Tsai saying that the ROC Constitution states clearly that reunification with the Mainland is the goal and that if Tsai claims that she is carrying out her role under the ROC Constitution then she should not pursue any policies that is toward Taiwan Independence. Of course Wu said this under the clear recent trend in public opinion toward unification. In the latest poll by the ROC Mainland Affairs Council the Unification vs Independence support was 17.1% vs 19.3% when in the 2004-2016 period it was mostly in the 11% vs 24% region. This is the most pro-unification sentiment since 2002.
Of course for the KMT to survive it has to make a comeback in Southern Taiwan Province. Here something took place recently in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) mayor race points to the way how that might be done. What took place was a large bloc of the Kaoshiung Presbyterian Church decided to break with its anti-KMT tradition which stretches back to the 1960s and come out to back the KMT candidate. Same with some Buddhist and Taoist organizations which defected to the DPP 10-15 years ago. What drove them to do this was their objection to recent policies of the DPP regime at the center that added a more sympathetic view of LGBT and non-traditional family lifestyles in public school curriculum. This is exactly what I predicted might take place as the DPP made progress in urban areas last couple of election cycles based on progressive values that appeals to the urban youth and urban middle class. The KMT counterattack has to be its own tradtional values based "Operation Dixie" in the South and it seems to be taking places on its own.
It just shows there are no permanent majorities and a coalition of everyone will not last long.Interesting, pretty much everything in the Western media (my Chinese isn't good enough yet to follow what either Beijing or Taipei are saying) says that the Kuomintang is collapsing. They claim that Chinese identification will continue to decline in the future and that internal struggles are tearing the party apart. It's great to hear a different view.
Now, this is just the view of an American Sinophile, who has only been to the mainland. But I don't quite understand the long term goal of the modern KMT. Obviously from the 1920s to 1949 it was to defeat the warlords and Communists while protecting the nation from Imperial Japan. From 1949 until at least 1970 it was to provide an alternative model for China's development and prepare for the eventual reconquest of the mainland. But what is the goal today? I mean, I heard they don't even call for reunification anymore. But even if they did support reunification, that opens up another can of worms. The old KMT did so much to keep the PRC out of Taiwan and Kinmen. I just don't understand why the group that fought a bloody, protracted war against Communism decide to join with the PRC. I can't see a political party with such a long, proud history subordinate itself to the CPC. But on the other hand, if they don't support reunification, what is their purpose?
Nevertheless, I'm wishing all the luck on the Kuomintang in November and hoping they take back power in 2020. I have a huge affinity for the party for historical reasons and from what I've seen Tsai Ing-wen does not seem like a great president.
Also, what exactly is the point of the Qinmindang? I don't get why their voters support them over the KMT, which is very similar.
