2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[jaichind]

With Tsai's ratings low with no clear way out and while the KMT has mostly closed the gap with the DPP but very little people are crediting KMT chairman Wu for it, the winner out of all this is former KMT Prez Ma a year and a half after leaving who was enemy number one for the Pan-Green bloc and abandoned by Deep Blue and Light Blue alike.  Now Ma's popularity is surging.  One way one can tell are the popularity of Ma Chinese New Year Decorations which are put up on the doors of households and are usually written words of good fortune. 

Historically the New Year Decorations written by the current ROC President are the most popular (kinds of like Gallup's poll of most admired Man is usually headed the sitting President.)   Last year Prez Ma's office gave out around 50K of such decorations.  This year given the massive demand for Ma Chinese New Year Decorations 250K has already been printed and sold out and another batch is several hundred thousand are now being frantically being printed.  The Tsai  Chinese New Year Decorations has printed 250K or so and that seems to be meeting demand.

One inevitably wonders if the ROC constitution allows for non-consecutive re-election. Or perhaps Eric Chu will give it another go. Interestingly he was a doctoral student of a colleague of my father's.

Ma can run again in 2020 if he so wishes.  I do not think he will do that well.  He is popular now because Tsai clearly over-promised and  under-delivered and Ma is no longer in partisan politics.  If he tries to run for office in 2020 memories of the 2014-2016 fiasco will come back.

Eric Chu would be the strongest candidate in 2020 but most likely he will wait for 2024.  Chances are that Tsai is even money for re-election and if Eric were to fight Wu for the nomination the KMT would be so split that it is unlikely he can win in the general election.   More likely he would just back Wu to run in 2020 and lose and he can come in the lead the KMT after 2020 and get ready to win in 2024.

As for knowing someone in ROC politics, I have several family friends that are in the radical pro-independence camp.  I also knew Jiang Yi-huah(江宜樺) who was the KMT Premier in 2013-2014.  He was a PHD student at Yale back in the early 1990s which overlapped my time there as an undergraduate.  I did not know him that well but we did have lunch several times and had lots of chats about politics of Greater China.  He was and I believe still is a moderate Chinese nationalist.  I was and still am a radical Chinese nationalist, of course. 

[jaichind]

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP "primary" loser Chang (張明達) is claiming fraud and hundreds of his supporters are rallying demanding that he run a an Independent.  Chang claims that hundreds of his supporters received prank calls constantly during the polling period which had the effect of holding up their phone lines so they could not get polled.  He also claims that there are signs of vote buying by his opponent Ong (翁章梁).  The way "vote buying" would work in a ROC "primary" is the person whose vote got "bought" would hand over his/her cell phone to the "vote buyer" during the polling period.  That way if pollster were to call the "vote buyer' can "vote" the right way. 

There are some KMT factions pushing for KMT to form an alliance with Chang (who himself was a KMT member back in the late 1990s but went over to the DPP along with the Lin faction defection from KMT to DPP.)   Most likely this will not take place and there will be a 3 way race if Chang runs as an Independent.   


 

[jaichind]

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) DPP "primary" results are out.  It is Huang(黃偉哲) 42% Chen(陳亭妃) 28%.  It was a very vicious campaign (most because the KMT is so weak in Tainan that the DPP candidate is almost certain to win.  Chen is crying foul and saying that the poll was manipulated.  

Just like in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) there is now talk that Chen might bolt from the DPP to run in the general as an independent.  Chen represents the more radical pro-independence bloc while Huang tends to be more moderate.  The pro-independence factions in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) are egging Chen on to run as an independent.

 

In kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) DPP "primary" it is Chen(陳其邁) 36% over a very large and crowed field  


Chen who is a MP was the son of a KMT MP who defected to the DPP back in 1993 taking his son who was a college political activist with him over to the DPP.  Chen was actually the front runner for the DPP primary for the 2006 kaoshiung City (高雄市) Mayor race but had to drop out when his father who was close to DPP President Chen was arrested for corruption.  This primary victory was the culmination of a long political comeback.   While the KMT might keep the race close Chen is certain to win the general election.

[jaichind]

Unknown pollster 民調大社會(Survey Society) came out with a Taipei city mayor election.

If it is Ko (柯文哲) (independent) vs Ding (丁守中) (KMT) vs Yao(姚文智) (DDP) then it is

Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  42.4
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)          30.9
Yao(姚文智) (DDP)             13.5



Breakout by Pan Blue voters, Pan Green Voters, and neutral voters has Ko (柯文哲) winning 50.4% of the Pan-Green vote and 36.4% of the pan-Blue vote.


If DPP steps aside to back Ko and it becomes Ko (柯文哲) (independent) vs Ding (丁守中) (KMT) then it is

Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  47.5
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)           40.7


Where some of the anti-Ko Pan-Green voters actually vote Ding to stop Ko. 

Poll has Ko approval/disapproval at 47.5/45.5

Ding (丁守中) has not been nominated by the KMT yet so his ratings, along with Yao(姚文智)  are underrated.  Still it seems Ko (柯文哲) is in trouble when DPP nominates a strong candidate that can consolidate the Pan-Green vote.  A weak DPP candidate actually works to the advantage of Ko (柯文哲)  in a 3 way race since Ko (柯文哲)  still wins a lot of the Pan-Green vote and holds on to a lot of the Pan-Blue vote since then Ko (柯文哲)  would not be consider the Pan-Green candidate.

[jaichind]

ETtoday (a media consortium) poll on Xi approval



The question is: "Do you approve of Mainland China leader Xi Jiping's leadership style?"  
The result is approval/disapproval 53.1/38.6

That's one way to get to Chinese reunification.  Have Xi run for ROC President in 2020 and win. With Xi holding the titles to PRC President and ROC President we will get reunification a-la Austro-Hungary Dual Monarchy method.

Another poll question



Is "As Mainland China becomes the number one economic power in the world would you support unification, independence or status quo"

Unification        24.2
Independence   12.1
Status Quo       51.5

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll on Taipei Mayor election in a Ko (柯文哲) (independent) vs Ding (丁守中) (KMT)  race has Ding getting close

Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  44.9
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)           39.2

[jaichind]

Fallout from the controversial Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP "primary" continue to widen and is involving Temple politics in this very Conservative and tradtionalist county.  The loser Chang (張明達) and team is coming out with a demand that Ong (翁章梁) and allies sign a oath to presented to a local temple where the deities will witness this oath.



The Oath pretty much says "I did nothing during this primary campaign to alter the opinion polling process for this primary.  If I did then may I end in a tragic death, the sprites of my ancestors find not rest and the fortunes of my decedents be cursed."

The Oath has  Chang (張明達) and team's signatures and asks Ong (翁章梁) and team to publicly sign.

[jaichind]

In Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP pretty much decided to nominate  Ong (翁章梁).   Chang (張明達) indicates that the DPP high command did not take his complaints to irregularities  seriously and is mulling an independent run.  Several key KMT Huang faction leaders who are on very friendly terms with  Chang (張明達) are the main drivers to egg him on to run as an independent.  The same KMT Huang faction leaders are also pushing KMT high command to form an alliance with  Chang (張明達) in case he runs.  If these KMT Huang faction leaders have their way the general election could be DPP-Lin faction vs KMT-Huang faction-Dissident Lin faction.

[jaichind]

Magazine Global Research came out with a poll that shows support for Unification at a 10 year high reaching 14.8% while support for independence falls to a 10 year low of 21.1%.  17% are for status quo forever which is a proxy for "soft" independence while 38.6% are for status quo and decide later which is a proxy for "will accept unification if the terms of good enough" 



The shift among the youth is the most striking.  For 20-29 year olds support for Unification have surged from 5.2% to 13.1 from early 2016 while support for Independence fell from 36.8% to 27.4% during the same period.   The Youth used to be the most pro-Independence age group.  That generational gap has mostly disappeared under poor economic environment and greater economic opportunities on Mainland China. 



A slightly more recent poll by the same magazine had 61.8% of 18-29 year old willing to move to Mainland China to enhance their economic prospects.

[jaichind]

Lee(李錫錕) who is a professor of political science in NTU will also run in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) mayor elections.  Lee was the KMT candidate for Taipei County (now New Taipei City) magistrate back in 1989 and narrowly lost.  He has been mostly out of politics for a couple of decades but does have a significant following among the non-partisan youth.  He will most likely eat into Ko (柯文哲) and KMT vote equally.


There is also talk that Freddy Lim(林昶佐), former music star and now NPP MP, will also to look to run.  Lim is concerned about Ko (柯文哲) recent shifts toward a pro-Beijing stance and sees an opening for him if DPP does not nominate a candidate.



If Lim gets into the race there might be a point where there is no point for DPP to nominate a candidate.   With both ex-DPP Tainan County magistrate Su(蘇煥智) and now NPP MP Lim(林昶佐) in the race there is not much space left for a DPP candidate would would most likely just eat more into the pan-Green vote for Ko (柯文哲) and throw the race to the KMT with DPP having no chance at victory.  

It seem what is going on is a good part of DPP base is fairly angry at Ko (柯文哲) and want Tsai to put forward a DPP candidate.  Tsai knows that doing that most likely means throwing the race to the KMT and makes her 2020 KMT opponent stronger and also could provoke Ko (柯文哲) to run in 2020. So Tsai strategy is delay, wait for other Pan-Green candidates to get into the race (Like  Su(蘇煥智) and now perhaps Lim(林昶佐)) and then say to the anti-Ko(柯文哲) faction of the DPP "there is no point in putting a DPP candidate that cannot win anyway."  Of course if I am right then Tsai here is guilty of gutting the Taipei DPP to ensure her 2020 reelection.  

[jaichind]

In Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11), DPP will not nominate a candidate but will back a pro-DPP independent and currently a mayor medium sized city in Maioli County Hsu(徐定禎.)  Given the fact that in a partisan election where the KMT is not split the DPP has no chance, DPP might as well make the race less partisan.   KMT incumbent is going to win no matter what.

[jaichind]

In Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), the KMT still have not selected a candidate yet.  But right after Huang(黃偉哲) won the DPP "primary" it emerged that ex-TSU MP Hsu(許忠信) will most likely run as an independent. 


There are already rumors from the DPP that supporter of Chen(陳亭妃) who was Huang(黃偉哲)'s opponent in the DPP "primary" might shift over to back Hsu(許忠信).  Most likely DPP will still win but this Pan-Green splinter candidate might work to narrow the DPP-KMT margin.

[Cynthia]

Is Xi eligible to stand for elections in Taiwan?

[jaichind]

Is Xi eligible to stand for elections in Taiwan?

No.  The ROC Constitution has clauses that indicate "before National reunification the sovereign territories of Republic of China will be divided into ROC controlled territories (aka Free ROC regions) and non-ROC controlled regions."  And then indicate that those living outside of ROC controlled regions have different sets of political rights including running for office. 

[jaichind]

In New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) the KMT "primary" is over and as expected Lieutenant mayor Ho (侯友宜)

 won over former Taipei County (what New Taipei City used to be called) Magistrate (2005-2010) Zhou(周錫瑋).

The margin was something like Ho 56% to Zhou 34% which was decisive enough for Zhou to fall in line and support Ho in the general election.


With no KMT split there does not seem much to stop the KMT from winning New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) with ease. 

The DPP in response is trying to get Su (蘇貞昌) who himself is also a former Taipei County Magistrate (1997-2005), a DPP Vice Presidential candidate, and a former DPP Chairman to run.  DPP high command does not expect Su to win but to keep it close so the KMT will be forced to use resources in New Taipei City (新北市) so they cannot be used in other races. Prez Tsai and Su are long time rivals but if Tsai insists I suspect Su will fall in line.

Latest Apple Daily poll has Su far behind losing to Ho 61-28.  But that is Su not formally in the race. and if Su does enter I suspect the race will be decided by a margin less than 5% with Ho most likely still winning. 


In many way Ho might be the future of the KMT.  I suspect Ho might end up on the KMT ticket in 2024 or 2028.

[jaichind]

Su (蘇貞昌) is in the race to be the DPP candidate for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).  A couple of new polls came out

TVBS has

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  40%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   32%



ETtoday has Ho way ahead

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  46.4%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   22.7%


The TVBS poll was done on the same day Su announced he was joining the race so it most likely have exaggerated Su's support.    I think Su is most likely around 10%-15% behind but will close the gap one the DPP election machine gets going.

[jaichind]

Two pro-KMT media polls has Ho (侯友宜) (KMT) well ahead of old two time DPP Taipei County magistrate, former DPP PM, twice DPP Chairman, and 2008 DPP Vice Prez candidate Su (蘇貞昌) in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).

UDN has it

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  45%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   26%


While Chinatimes has it at

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  50.6%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   27.1%


Usually UDN and Chinatimes has the pan-Blue support right but underestimate the pan-Green candidate by 5%-10%.  So the race is most likely something like Ho 47 Su 35.  Still a surprising large lead for Ho given the stature of Su.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ding (丁守中) wins the KMT "primary" in a crowed field of second tier candidates by a large margin and will be the KMT candidate.  Now the DPP will have to make a call to figure out if they should nominate their own candidate, most likely Yao(姚文智) setting up a 3 way race or back Ko (柯文哲).

At this stage it is a lose-lose situation for DPP.  The DPP Light Green and youth base has now mostly go over to Ko but the core DPP vote is fairly anti-Ko at this stage given Ko's recent pro-Beijing position.  DPP now faces a split now matter what it does.  Worse the split might extend into other counties and cities where the 2016 DPP vote has fractured along pro-Ko and anti-Ko positions.

DPP high command led by DPP Prez Tsai really want to back Ko to avoid a Ko 3rd party run in 2020 but need Ko to renounce some if not all of his more pro-Beijing rhetoric as well as his fairly recent criticisms of the DPP regime, especially those of the DPP New Tide faction.  To some extent the recent Ko vs DPP battle is really a Ko vs DPP New Tide faction battle.

The next few days will be fun to watch to on how the DPP will avoid a civil war.  Given DPP's track record of unity before a general election I am sure they will find some way to patch things up.

Most recent Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) polls are all over the place. 

An internal DPP poll has it
Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  35
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)          30
Yao(姚文智) (DDP)             25

While a KMT poll has Ding (丁守中) (KMT) ahead of Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  by 7% in an 1-on-1 race.


An ETtoday internet poll has it at an absurd

Ko (柯文哲) (independent) 48.5
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)          32.1
Yao(姚文智) (DDP)              4.0

[jaichind]

Left Independence SDP Chairperson and family friend Fan(范雲) will also now run for mayor of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) adding more pressure on Ko (柯文哲) by threatening to peal off more pro-DPP voters.    Fan was a key player of the anti-KMT collage campus movement back in the late 1980s and was a key member of the DPP before bolting in 2006 over DPP Prez Chen's corruption scandals.



She is a long time friend of the pro-independence branch of my family and is fairly close to my cousin.  I meet her a few times on my various trips to ROC.  She also attended Yale as a graduate student when my cousin was attending there as well and I got to chat with her at length a few times when I went back to Yale to visit my cousin.  We had a series of headed debates given her Left Pro-Independence Feminist position and my extreme Right Chinese nationalist ultra-capitalism position.  Still I have strong respect for the faith of her convictions and her tolerance of, from her point of view, of my abhorrent ideas.  I wish her the best of luck even as I will of course back the KMT's Ding (丁守中).   I wonder if the pro-Independence (and fairly wealthy) branch of my family is funding her campaign.  I have to ask them about that next I get to talk to them on the phone.   

[jaichind]

ROC internet betting site xfutures odds of winning on the Special municipality Mayors and County Magistrates races.  Historically these odds has a pro-DPP bias but usually misses waves.

Nothing from Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) since the KMT did not nominate their candidate yet.

For the rest they have
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6): Pro-DPP Ind 48% KMT 44% DPP 8%
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2): KMT 56% DPP 44%
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5): DPP 73% KMT 27%
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0): DPP 59% KMT 41%
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8): DPP 61% KMT 39%
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6): KMT 67% DPP 33%
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5): DPP 60% KMT 40%
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11): KMT 72% DPP backed Ind. 28%
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1): DPP 50% KMT 50%
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3): KMT 79% DPP 21%
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8): DPP 56% KMT 44%
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10): DPP 79% KMT 21%
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3): KMT 59% DPP 36% KMT rebel 5%
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8): DPP 75% KMT 25%
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18): KMT 52% DPP 48%
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20): KMT 77% DPP 23%
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4): KMT 54% DPP 46%

[jaichind]

Latest Chinatimes Times poll (pro-Blue media) has KMT's Ding (丁守中) surging ahead in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).

If it is KMT's Ding vs Ko then it is

KMT Ding           42.7%
pro-DPP Ko        36.5%


If DPP PM and former Tainan Mayor Lai (賴清德) and considered the strongest DPP candidate if they are determinted to win is nominated by the DPP it is an embarrassing

KMT Ding           40.0%
Ind. Ko              32.0%
DPP Lai              13.2%



Not sure what 3 dimensional chess DPP Prez Tsai is playing but her delay on making a decision on weather to back Ko or go with a DPP candidate merely served to divide the Taipei DPP into pro- and anti- Ko factions.  What is worse is that the same is taking place in other counties and cities.  The DPP hope that somehow Ko could capture some marginal KMT voters seem to have limited impact, as least as indicated in this poll.  To be fair to adjust for the pan-Blue house effect I would still view Ding and Ko as neck-to-neck in a 1-to-1 race. 

At this stage DPP's only course of action might be to back Ko since a 3 way race could end up with the DPP in a distant third and Ko will might very well run against DPP candidates in other counties/cities as well as potentially run against Tsai in 2020.

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP Formosa Poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has KMT Ding and Ind. Ko neck-to-neck in a 1-on-1 battle.

If has

pro-DPP Ko        41.0%
KMT Ding           40.9%


If DPP nominates Yao(姚文智) it becomes

Ind. Ko          35.2%
KMT Ding       33.1%
DPP Yao         15.0%


If DPP nominates DPP PM and former Tainan Mayor Lai (賴清德)

Ind. Ko          30.7%
KMT Ding       30.0%
DPP Yao         22.6%


If DPP nominates former Kaoshiung Mayor Chen (陳菊)

Ind. Ko          28.6%
KMT Ding       32.0%
DPP Yao         22.8%

[jaichind]

In  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) DPP has decide to nominate their own candidate.  Mostly due to the surge of KMT's Ding where then DPP feels that backing Ko does not guaranteed victory but instead risks a meltdown of the DPP core vote.

Latest ETToday poll has Ding in the lead if DPP goes with Yao

KMT Ding       37.5%
Ind. Ko          36.4%
DPP Yao         13.4%

[jaichind]

A lot of candidates are up in the air, especially in places like Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) but my current guess for election results are

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         43%
Ko           33%
DPP         15%
DPP rebel   4%
KMT rebel  3%
SDP           1%
Ind.           1%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         54%
DPP         46%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         54%
KMT         46%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          58%
KMT          41%
Ind.            1%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          53%
KMT         43%
PFP           2%  (KMT splinter)
KMT rebel  2%  (radical re-unificationist)


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           52%
KMT           48%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     3%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           39%
DPP           35%
MKT           26%  (KMT splinter)


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            54%
KMT           46%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             66%
pro-DPP Ind  31%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               1%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             52%
DPP             48%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             57%
DPP              43%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              56%
KMT              44%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              55%
KMT             45%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      7%
Ind.               1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            43%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            53%
DPP             47%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            65%
DPP             35%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            49%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      6%
Ind.              1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Green 49.9%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Pan-Blue   49.8%
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

Which would place this election to something similar to the 2009/2010 cycle.

[jaichind]

Latest UDN (pro-Blue media outfit) poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

If it is Ding vs Ko then it is

KMT Ding           41%
pro-DPP Ko        39%


If DPP nominates someone then it is depending on the DPP candidate

                     KMT Ding    Ko       DPP
Yao(姚文智)         39          38          8
Lu(呂秀蓮)          41           38         4
Lai(賴清德)         36           33        16

It seems if we take this poll at face value then a lot of undecided in a Ding vs Ko race are DPP supporters.  If so then DPP getting into the race will be devastating for Ko.  But not getting into the race would be devastating for DPP in Taipei City assembly elections as well as races in other counties/cities.