2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[jaichind]

DPP formally nominates Yao(姚文智)  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) setting up a 3 way race between KMT DPP and Ko.

It is fairly clear what DPP's high command strategy for 2018 election is, which is all about securing DPP Tsai's re-election in 2020.  The minimum goal is to win Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).   If DPP loses Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then I would rate Tsai's chances of re-election at below 40%.  If DPP can hold Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then I would say Tsai's reelection chances are above 50%.  If DPP can somehow keep Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and get a compliant Ko to keep   Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  then Tsai's chances surges to 80%.

The main DPP strategy to keep  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) is one of diversion.  If the DPP can keep New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) competitive (within 5%)then the KMT will have to focus on New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) to avoid a disastrous defeat.  This is why Tsai went hat in hand to get her rival Su(蘇貞昌) to run in  New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).  So far this leg is not working as Su now finds himself behind in the polls by at least 10% if not more.

The other leg of the DPP strategy is find a way to back Ko to take on the KMT 1-on-1 and yet get the DPP base accept this since Ko's renegade style has pealed off DPP youth base over to him but the old pro-independence DPP are hostile to Ko.  The DPP strategy is to keep on threatening Ko with a DPP candidate and pumping up the DPP's base anger against Ko to get Ko to grovel to Tsai and DPP.  Main problem is Ko called the DPP bluff on the premise that no tier one DPP candidate will be willing to run in a election where they are likely to come in third.  Worse the anger DPP pumped up against Ko which was suppose to be for show became real to the point that DPP had to nominate someone to avoid a split in the party.  So in the end a tier two candidate like s Yao(姚文智) had to be nominated.   If seems that DPP's strategy going forward is to try to push up s Yao(姚文智) support to a point where Ko will have to come begging for a deal with the DPP or face certain defeat.

The KMT strategy in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is to project Yao as a dummy candidate and Ko as the true Pan-Green candidate.  This is because KMT in many ways is sitting pretty.   Assuming KMT keeps its ~43% vote base and the large number of Blue and Green Independents take around 7%, DPP has to collapse to single digits for KMT to have a risk of losing.  For now the KMT will assume that Tsai and DPP high command will not accept such an outcome.  So the main risk for the KMT is for Yao(姚文智) to catch fire and become "The Green candidate" which opens up Ko to capture votes from the Blue vote base eating into KMT Ding's ~43%. So no matter what KMT needs to keep Ko away from its core vote and labeling Ko as the Green candidate is the way to do it.   Ideally for the KMT Yao's support should be around 15%-20% which means Ko would be seen as KMT's main opponent and makes it easier to label Ko as the Green candidate which would ensure a easy KMT victory.  Later in the campaign if Yao's support falls below 15% there will be a risk for the KMT that DPP high command might throw in the towel and work to shift DPP votes toward Ko to block Ding.  KMT is figuring that would not take place due to a) such a result will be a major humiliation of DPP high command and Prez Tsai b) this would provoke outrage from the DPP core vote in other counties and cities.

The DPP-Ko breakup is already hurting DPP in other elections.  In Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) an ex-TSU MP who ran in 2014 as well is running again.  Ko will be backing her and could shift a bunch of youth vote toward her.  But this is the same youth vote the DPP is counting on to try to keep this seat from a stronger KMT challenger.

[jaichind]

In a shock, as soon as DPP nominated Yao(姚文智)  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), DPP ex-VP Lu (呂秀蓮) was as also working for the DPP nomination announced that she will quit DPP.  I guess soon after that she will be running as an independent.  This is a death blow to DPP and accelerate the marginalization of Yao(姚文智).    This is sort of neutral to Ko.  One the one hand it makes it more likely that anti-Ding DPP vote swill flow to him.  On the other hand there is another candidate to split the anti-Ding vote.

So for the  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) we have a crowed field.  My guesstimate of the result would be

KMT Ding(丁守中)             43.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    36.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               10.0%    Pan-Green
DPP rebel Lu(呂秀蓮)          3.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Taoyuan and ex-VP of ROC)
KMT rebel Li(李錫錕)           2.0%    Pan-Blue (1989 KMT candidate for Taipei county magistrate)
DPP rebel Su(蘇煥智)          2.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Tainan)
Pro-Blue Chiu(邱文祥)         1.5%    Pan-Blue (medical doctor with pro-Blue leanings)
SDP  Fang(范雲)                 1.0%    Pan-Green  (family friend)
TIP Gu(古文發)                   0.5%    Pan-Green  (radical pro-independence)
Ind Shu(許純美)                  0.5%   (actress)
Ind Cheng(鄭伊廷)              0.5%

Blue/Green split is 46.5/52.5.  It is clear that Ko will capture a chunk of the pan-Blue vote since in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) the Blue/Green split is around 55/45.

[jaichind]

Interesting, pretty much everything in the Western media (my Chinese isn't good enough yet to follow what either Beijing or Taipei are saying) says that the Kuomintang is collapsing.  They claim that Chinese identification will continue to decline in the future and that internal struggles are tearing the party apart.  It's great to hear a different view.

Now, this is just the view of an American Sinophile, who has only been to the mainland.  But I don't quite understand the long term goal of the modern KMT.  Obviously from the 1920s to 1949 it was to defeat the warlords and Communists while protecting the nation from Imperial Japan.  From 1949 until at least 1970 it was to provide an alternative model for China's development and prepare for the eventual reconquest of the mainland.  But what is the goal today?  I mean, I heard they don't even call for reunification anymore.  But even if they did support reunification, that opens up another can of worms.  The old KMT did so much to keep the PRC out of Taiwan and Kinmen.  I just don't understand why the group that fought a bloody, protracted war against Communism decide to join with the PRC.  I can't see a political party with such a long, proud history subordinate itself to the CPC.  But on the other hand, if they don't support reunification, what is their purpose?

Nevertheless, I'm wishing all the luck on the Kuomintang in November and hoping they take back power in 2020.  I have a huge affinity for the party for historical reasons and from what I've seen Tsai Ing-wen does not seem like a great president.

Also, what exactly is the point of the Qinmindang?  I don't get why their voters support them over the KMT, which is very similar.

I think the 2016-2017 period the narrative of the KMT in terminal decline is quite apt. Even as DPP was stumbling when it took over the KMT did not seem to benefit and if anything outsiders like Ko were gaining support as the alternative to the DPP.   The KMT was mired in civil war between its pro-unification vs non-unification factions in an environment where the general population was hostile to unification but a KMT without the banner of Chinese nationalism would lack a central vision.  Furthermore KMT without resources of being the incumbent party at both the Pres and Legislative level mean that the old KMT way of running elections was in danger of breaking down due to lack of resources.

Nome of that stopping being true but as 2018 came around the nature of the election campaign self-organized the KMT into a more viable and continued incompetence  of the DPP regime drove support to the KMT as the only real viable alternative as well as pushed up support for unification.  In many ways this is a replay of 2008-2010 when after the 2008 KMT landslide election it was thought that it would take the DPP at least 4 election cycles to come back after the disastrous corruption scandals of DPP Prez Chen.   The very nature of KMT stumbling, especially in the 2013-2014 period, make the DPP comeback only take 8 year and in 2016 DPP won with an unprecedented majority.   The way things are going the KMT has a 50/50 shot at winning in 2020 and is very likely to win in 2024.

As for PFP(親民黨) it is a KMT splinter and personality party of James Soong(宋楚瑜) who was an up and coming KMT superstar destined to lead the KMT.  But a diasterous KMT civil war  between Soong and his rival Lien Chan(連戰) lead to a KMT defeat of 2000 and crated the PFP.  The party mostly exist for KMT rebels to run to and most likely will come to an end when Soong retires.  In 2016 James Soong's PFP did fairly well as pro-KMT voters that wanted to teach the KMT a lesson voted PFP.  At this stage given the disastrous nature of the DPP regime most of them have gone back to backing the KMT again even if the KMT is led by a fairly listless leadership.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS (pro-Blue) poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

KMT Ding(丁守中)             33.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    31.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               13.0%    Pan-Green



If Lu gets into the race then it is

KMT Ding(丁守中)             35.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    29.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               11.0%    Pan-Green
DPP rebel Lu(呂秀蓮)          5.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Taoyuan and ex-VP of ROC)


Which is sort of close to my guesstimate of the result

[jaichind]

Just to show how much the youth vote has abandoned the DPP in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and perhaps other areas, the number of people that watches a daily live-stream called "Watch Mayor Ko Eat Lunch" which is, well, basically Ko eating a normal lunch must be 50 times higher than the recent internet only live-stream of a live interview of DPP Prez Tsai.

[jaichind]

Somewhat pro-Green poll aggregation has DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval at a record low of 27/59. 

[jaichind]

Ettoday (slight pro-Blue bias) poll for Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)

DPP  32.8%
KMT  19.6%


A lead of this sort by an incumbent is actually somewhat problematic for DPP given that it is the incumbent running.    Of course the KMT candidate Chang(張麗善) also ran in 2014 and is the sister of former KMT county magistrate and leader of the still powerful Chang faction.  She did not really want to run again but the KMT put in a lot of effort to get her to run.  She will not win but it seems the race will be closer than 2014 by some margin.

[jaichind]

Latest Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

KMT Ding(丁守中)             40.2%     
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    34.7%     
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12.2%   

If it is clear that Yao cannot win and will end up third then it will be

KMT Ding(丁守中)             43.7%     
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    38.5%     
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 6.8%

Which seems to show that there is an solid anti-Ko bloc of pro-DPP voters that would even vote Ding to avoid Ko from winning.

What is disastrous for DPP is the generic vote for City assembly  which is

KMT   39.4％
DPP    16.6％
NPP      2.8%

which reflects ths vertical split of the Taipei DPP between pro-KO and anti-KO factions.  With, for now, DPP going on the warpath on Ko the pro-Ko bloc of the DPP are holding back their support of DPP assembly candidate.  Most likely the DPP will fall to below Ma 2002 landslide levels most because unlike 2002 the pan-Blue vote will be consolidated behind KMT when in 2002 the pan-Blue were split between KMT and PFP.

[jaichind]

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) has DPP way ahead

DPP Huang(黃偉哲)          40.3%
KMT Gao(高思博)             17.3%
Pan-Blue Chen(陳子敬)      6.5%
Ex-TSU rebel Shu(許忠信)  5.9%



For Gao to have any chance of keeping it close KMT has to convince Chen to withdraw and Shu has to stay in the race.

Same poll has vote for City Assembly has DPP way ahead

DPP   36.7％
KMT   21.1%
NPP     1.8％
TSU    0.7%
PFP     0.4%
NP      0.3%

[jaichind]

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) does not run as a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               56.9%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    17.6%

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) runs a a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               46.5%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    10.3%
KMT rebel Liu(劉政鴻)          8.6%



This is the most pro-KMT county on Taiwan Province.  I suspect if Liu(劉政鴻) does run his vote share is underestimated. Pro-DPP independent is most likely underestimated as well as the pro-DPP vote should be at least 30% if Liu(劉政鴻) does not run.

[jaichind]

Ettoday (slightly pro-Blue) poll for Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6)

KMT Lin(林姿妙)          41.2%
DPP Chen(陳歐珀)       15.8%
KMT rebel Lin (林信華)  3.9%

Obviously underestimates DPP.  But the gap highlights Lin(林姿妙) strength and the fact that is is the heavy favorite to win in this traditionally DPP county (back in 1980s  Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) was the most anti-KMT county).  Lin(林姿妙) could be a future KMT superstar if her tenure as Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) county magistrate goes well.  I can see her being on the KMT national ticket beyond 2024.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll for Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT Shu(徐榛蔚)        44.4%
DPP Liu(劉曉玫)          19.0%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) is one of the most pro-Blue counties although recently DPP have been gaining ground here, especially with the non-Aborigine vote.  Shu(徐榛蔚) is the wife of the pro-KMT independent incumbent and seems set to win.   

[jaichind]

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) has DPP incumbent way ahead

DPP Cheng(鄭文燦)   51.5%
KMT Chen(陳學聖)    24.9%

But due to the fundamentals of  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) having a pro-KMT lean especially at the local level the KMT is way ahead for City Assembly vote

KMT   35.1%
DPP   13.8%
NPP     1.0%



DPP incumbent should win the race with ease but KMT's strong fundamentals means that the KMT candidate could keep it close if there is a small KMT wave.

[jaichind]

New TVBS (pro-KMT) poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) has KMT Ho opening up a 17 point lead over DPP Kingpin Su.

KMT Ho (侯友宜)    48(+8)
DPP Su (蘇貞昌)     31(-1)



The DPP spent a lot time this last month on the attack against Ho in hopes of keeping New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) close and preventing the KMT from using Ho to campaign in other races.  It seems things are not working out for DPP.

[jaichind]

Are the KMT basically their version of the GOP or Conservative Party as a pro-business, free marketist party (I understand this is highly simplified and that every country has its nuances)? And their DPP is basically their Democratic Party?

In respect to policy, I understand while their health care model on paper looks efficient, I understand the system is overburdened, does Taiwan need to raise its taxes by a moderate amount to upgrade their health care system and make it less overwhelmed? Additionally, other than relations with the mainland, what are some other pressing issues for Taiwan?

Jaichind, who would you support and are there any policies you would like to be introduced, implemented or revamped?

The real difference between KMT and DPP are about the issue of identify.  KMT represents the Chinese identify and the DPP the Taiwanese identity.   Both mouth populist slogans, especially when in opposition but in reality KMT represents service and advanced industrial economic interests while the DPP represents the older industrial interests and landed class in rural areas.  This is not a coincidence.  The service and advanced industrial economic interests tend to benefit from economic integration with Mainland China while older industrial interests and landed class in rural areas tend to to be hurt by economic integration with Mainland China. 

Both KMT and DPP have done their share to expand the welfare state as part of populist schemes to win votes.  Of course both have worked on reform plans to cut costs of the welfare state given the overall aversion of Chinese societies to government debt.    The KMT is strong with the educated class tend to have a lot of support in public service workers which in turn triggers DPP to focus on public sector pension reform.  The DPP has a lot of support with rural farmers which triggers KMT to work on reform welfare payments to those sections.

Given the aversion to government debt the current system of national healthcare is in economic crisis and the current DPP regime is working on plans to reform the system and try to cut costs and increase premiums.     Understand that ROC also spends fairly low levels on defense given the PRC threat (and is really a free rider on USA's defense spending) and even then the fairly minimal welfare state it has built is not sustainable given the fairly low taxes and large size of the informal economy.

As for what policies I want.  I am a strong Chinese nationalist  so I am for Chinese reunification for identity reasons in addition to sound economic reasons.  To be far back in the 1980s I was a lukewarm supporter of Taiwan independence but that was more about my opposition to KMT laws that banned the expression of support for the Taiwanese identify.  Once those laws were removed I mostly reverted to my true Chinese ultra-nationalist self.

The current poor economic climate on ROC today stems from the fact that most wealth made by ROC business are routed abroad and not used to spur the domestic economy.     The reason for this are two fold.  First uncertainly over relationship with PRC and possible PRC invasion means that local wealth will find its way abroad.  Second the policy of promoting export which worked so well for the KMT in the 1960s-1990s period now holding the economy back with the Central Bank always looking to push down the currency to promote export but give wealth very little reason to try to stay.  As a result the local cost of living is fairly low but the consumer economy is not taking off as it should leaving a good section of the population in a lower middle class income trap.

The solution should be unification talks with the PRC.  We should be trading de jure unification for de facto autonomy.  A reasonable deal should be:
a) Union between Mainland China and Taiwan to form Federal Republic of China
b) Current situation on Taiwan Province stays EXACTLY the same as today except for any official usage of the word ROC (Republic of China) we instead use Federal Republic of China Taiwan Regional Government including keeping its armed forces.

I think the PRC would take this deal since economic problems would not lead to the overthrow of the CCP.  But if the PRC loses Taiwan and allows for a formal Taiwan Independence the CCP will over overthrown.  CCP knows that and putting to bed something that can lead to its overthrow and in fact pushing up defense spending would be a good deal for PRC. 

Of course doing this deal would lead to the destruction of DPP because that would pretty much blow up their entire reason for DPP to exist which is to protect an independent Taiwanese identity.
   

[jaichind]

It seems the KMT is bungling up a sure win in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) although it is not clear how it will work out.

See

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=220015.msg4853559#msg4853559

for a long writeup on the history of Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) politics since the 1990s.

With KMT incumbent Chiu (邱鏡淳) leaving office after two terms the election was headed to a 3 way race.  The DPP nominates Cheng(鄭朝方) who the son of Chiu's long time KMT rival Cheng(鄭永金).  KMT splinter MKT leader Shu (徐欣瑩)  who used to be a KMT MP is also running.   Former DPP MP and now KMT MP and whip Lin (林為洲) who beat Cheng(鄭永金) who ran for DPP in 2016 for MP was the front runner for the KMT and was expected to win the KMT "primary."

But it seems last minute KMT Chairman Wu decided not to go with a "primary" and that the KMT will draft a candidate.  Wu then went with Yang(楊文科).  It seems that Lin (林為洲) might not accept this and might run as an independent threatening to split the Pan-Blue vote 3 ways and could throw the race to DPP's   Cheng(鄭朝方) just like in 1997 when KMT was split (KMT Chiu (邱鏡淳) and KMT Cheng(鄭永金) ran against each other) and lost to DPP. 

There are several theories on why Wu did this.  One is  Lin (林為洲) coming from a DPP background was not acceptable to various pro-Blue local factions.  Worse  Lin (林為洲) is not a Hakka in a county that is mostly Hakka.  It is also said that Wu went with  Yang(楊文科) who he can control so he can use  Yang(楊文科) as a bargaining chip with  Shu (徐欣瑩) to work for a MKT merger back into KMT and for Shu (徐欣瑩) to run for KMT.

Anyway it is not clear that  Lin (林為洲) will actually bolt from KMT to run as an independent since it is unlikely without the KMT label he would win and risk losing is promising career as the KMT Parliamentary Whip.  Also even it comes to a 3 way split of the Pan-Blue vote   Shu (徐欣瑩) has a lot of appeal to Pan-Green voters and the election might turn into a Yang(楊文科) vs Shu (徐欣瑩)  battle with both Cheng(鄭朝方) and  Lin (林為洲), if he runs, being marginalized.  The main problem with Cheng(鄭朝方) is that he does not have the same appeal and connections his father has with local Pan-Blue factions and given his KMT background he might not appeal to the DPP vote in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).

One way or another the DPP better not win Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) or Wu will have a huge egg on his face and risks losing his job if the KMT has a mediocre election night in Nov 2018.

[jaichind]

I think it's clear that any genuinely equitable political solution has long gone, if only because of the sheer disparity in economic and military strength. If there is a peaceful political solution, it will be on Beijing's terms with a few token concessions that give Taiwan slightly more autonomy than the ex-European colonies.

In theory yes.  Of course some unique factors in the KMT and DPP would make the ROC punch above its weight when it comes down to reunification talks.  The KMT is viewed as the "older brother" of the CCP which gives it a physiological edge when it unification talks with the CCP.  The DPP with with pro-Independence fringe could end up paying the "mad dog"  role (like if you push us to far we will just ignore the USA get nuclear weapons) in to apply pressure on the CCP to compromise.  If the DPP does not exist the KMT will almost have to invent the DPP as the bad cop. 

None of this would stop the process of unification on the long run as long as the PRC holds together but will give us on the ROC a negotiation edge beyond what is justified given our economic-military strength.

[jaichind]

My current projection on results given the known candidates
Last few weeks have been generally bad for the pan-Greens in terms of new cycle.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [I assume DPP's Lu will not run and DPP's Su will run in Tainan]
KMT         44%
Ko           35%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         15.5%
KMT rebel  1.5%
SDP           1%     (Pan-Green)
KMT rebel   1%
TIP            0.5% (radical independence)
Indys        1.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         46.5%
Ind.           0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          44%
KMT          36%
DPP rebel    9%
Ind.            6%  (pro-Blue)
TSU rebel    4%
Ind.            1%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          51%
KMT         47%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
KMT rebel  1%  (radical re-unification)


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           52%
KMT           48%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     3%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           36%
DPP           32%
MKT           32%  (KMT splinter)


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            49%
KMT           45%
Ind.            6%  (pro-Green)


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             62%
pro-DPP Ind  35.5%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             51%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      2.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              55%
KMT              45%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              49%
KMT             45%
DPP rebel       6%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             49%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      5%
Indys            2%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            43%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            54%
DPP             46%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            67%
DPP             33%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%
Indys            1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Blue   50.5%
Pan-Green 49.1%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.4%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS (pro-Blue) poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).

Despite KMT bungling the DPP does not seem to be benefiting.  

If KMT continues with Yang(楊文科) as its candidate he will narrowly lose to MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩).

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)      31
KMT Yang(楊文科)     27
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)    9


If the KMT switches back to MP Lin(林為洲) as its candidate then Lin(林為洲) is ahead

KMT Lin(林為洲)       37
MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)      29
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)    8


If Lin(林為洲) runs as a KMT rebel then it is MKT's advantage

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)        27
KMT rebel Lin(林為洲) 24
KMT Yang(楊文科)       20
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)      9


It seems if this poll is believed that KMT splinter MKT leader Hsu(徐欣瑩) has mostly capture pan-Green support as the anti-KMT alternative.  At this stage with Yang(楊文科) not having starting his campaign his level of support is mostly under-estimated, especially with the Hakka majority.  But it seems that this election might end with DPP's Cheng(鄭朝方) marginalization and MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) becoming the de facto Green candidate.  

BTW, note the MKT's party symbol is nearly identical to the KMT's symbol.

Sorts of reminds me of the 2010 FL Senate race where GOP rebel Charlie Crist  toward the end became the de facto Dem candidate as the main challenger to GOP's Rubio.

[jaichind]

Is Hsu a devoted MKT person or using the party as an opportunistic vehicle? It's just weird to imagine the MKT winning everything although it's certainly a welcome surprise.

Well,  Hsu(徐欣瑩) is the founder and leader of the MKT.  MKT is only really relevant  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).  In 2008 Hsu(徐欣瑩) left the KMT and ran with DPP support against the official KMT candidate  Chiu (邱鏡淳) (current KMT county magistrate) in the Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) legislative seat.  She failed in a very strong KMT year.  She later rejoined the KMT and won the 2012 Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) legislative race as the KMT candidate.  In 2015 she broke from the KMT again and formed the MKT.  She was going to run for her legislative seat as the MKT candidate but was picked by KMT splinter PFP's Soong as his VP candidate in the 2016 Prez election. 

MKT is really a Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) local party.  There are always all sorts of talks about  Hsu(徐欣瑩) being in talks with the KMT to return to the KMT as the leader of the Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) KMT.  But that seems to have the opposition of a lot of the KMT local factions.   But in the meantime given the weakness of the DPP  Hsu(徐欣瑩) seems to have eaten into the DPP vote as an alternative to the KMT in  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).

[jaichind]

A picture making the round of ROC political discussion boards



It has "Mrs Xi (PRC Xi's wife)" "Mrs Kim(DPRK Kim's wife" and "Miss Tsai (ROC Prez Tsai)"

<The Chinese language does not have the concept of "Ms", only "Miss" or "Mrs".  In theory there is which is 女士 but it is rarely used and only there because the rise of the usage of "Ms" in the English speaking world>

My comment is: "Guess who is the Communist?"
The comment on the picture is "Times have changed,  Communist Bandits do not look like Communist Bandits anymore, and Those who are not Communist Bandits now look like Communist Bandits"

[jaichind]

In  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14), it seems KMT MP Lin(林為洲) will bolt from the KMT and run as an independent making it a 4 way race.    He also has the support of former DPP county magistrate Lin(林光華) mostly based on the Lin Clan loyalty.    So both Lin(林為洲) and MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) will appeal to both pan-Blue and pan-Green voters.   With Lin(林為洲) in the race to further split the KMT vote I suspect MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) is now the front runner although I think all 4 candidates (MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩), KMT rebel Lin(林為洲), KMT Yang(楊文科),DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)) will get at least (or close to it) 20% of the vote.  This will be a fun 4 way race.

[jaichind]

TVBS (pro-Blue) came out with polls in the 6 special municipalities.


Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) (change from  May)
Pro-Green Ind Ko(柯文哲)   40 (+9)
KMT Ding(丁守中)              30 (-3)
DPP Yao(姚文智)                11 (-2)
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +9)

Ko re-takes the lead although name recognition for Ding and Yao seem fairly low compared to Ko so Ko's lead seems artificial until the campaign really takes off.



New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) (change from June)
KMT Ho(侯友宜)    48 (--)
DPP su(蘇貞昌)     29 (-2)
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +2)

Both candidates are well known so most likely this is the race although it is clear that DPP will do better than this poll implies.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP Cheng(鄭文燦)  56
KMT Chen(陳學聖)   20
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +5)

DPP incumbent Cheng(鄭文燦) has a pretty positive record and will cruise to re-election.  Chen's name ID is fairly low and given the KMT base the race will be a lot closer than this poll would suggest especially when ROC polls tend to, in a non-polarized election, overestimate the incumbent running for re-election which is correlated to overestimation of the candidate with greater name recognition.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT Lu(盧秀燕)    39
DPP Lin(林佳龍)    33
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +1)

DPP Incumbent Lin in a tight race.  Given the incumbent is behind in the polls this does not look good for Lin.  Lu's main problem is that in rural Taichung where the KMT Black and Red factions still have some influence she is having a hard time getting these KMT factions to be actively backing her.  Lin could still get these KMT local factions to back him with the right incentives.


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP Chen(陳其邁)    40
KMT Han(韓國瑜)     32
Blue vs Green ID (Green +9)

Han is keeping it close which is a significant accomplishment.  Han might be able to get this race to be within the lower single digits.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP Huang(黃偉哲)            41
KMT Gao(高思博)               15
DPP rebel Su(蘇煥智)           8
Pan Blue Indy Lin(林義豐)    7  (fairly strong with youth and internet crowd)
Pan Blue Indy Chen(陳子敬) 4
TSU rebel Shu(許忠信)         3  (back by former DPP Prez Chen)
Blue vs Green ID (Green +12)

Gao has fairly low name recognition so once the election campaign picks up he will gain more support.  If Chen and Shu are polling 4 and 3 at this stage then they will most likely end up with less than 2$ of the vote each.   Huang looks set to win by a wide margin although Su is a threat to take a bunch of pan-Green votes and reduce the DPP winning margin.

[jaichind]

The "markers" for the 2020 Prez election front-runners in this election are the following:

1) For the KMT if
a) KMT only wins  New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) then Wu is out as KMT chairman ASAP and Chu becomes the KMT chairman and the KMT candidate in 2020 especially if KMT does well in Chu's New Taipei City(新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) election.
b) KMT wins one of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) or Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).  Wu stays on as KMT chairman but the 2020 KMT nomination will become a Wu vs Chu fight where it is a tossup since Wu has the party machinery and Chu is more popular with the KMT grassroots.  
c) KMT wins both Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0). Wu becomes the KMT Prez candidate in 2020

Of course there is the issue of Ma.  Ex-KMT Prez Ma has been indicted for a 2005 (when Ma was KMT Chairman) sale of KMT owned media companies.  The prosecution claims that Ma sold those assets below market value "to benefit others."  But main issue here is there are no proof or evidence that Ma personally got a dime out of this deal.  So there is a perception, especially among KMT voters, that this is a political motivated trumped up charge.  This sympathy factor means that if Ma were to choose to run in the KMT "primary" for 2020 there is not much Wu or Chu can do to stop him.

2) For DPP Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  is clearly lost and could end up being a catastrophic result.  If DPP holds  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then Tsai will avoid a "Primary" challenge even, as expected, the DPP will lose a few counties.   If DPP loses Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then there will be internal pressure in the DPP to dump Tsai.  Most likely she can suppress this rebellion since the main alternative to Tsai is PM Lai of the New Tide faction which inside the Tsai camp as her PM.

Tsai has to balance several factors.  She has to a) Make sure she avoids an internal "Primary" challenge b) Try to avoid a Ko run in 2020 c) Make sure the KMT candidate is Wu who poll the worst among the possible KMT candidate.  Problem is these goals are contradictory.  

If DPP does "too well" then Wu is out as KMT and Tsai will get Chu which is a tougher challenger in 2020.   If DPP does too poorly then Tsai faces a DPP  "primary challenge."   If Tsai helps Ko win in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) to avoid a Ko 2020 run then KMT defeat in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) could mean Wu is out and Tsai get Chu.

It seems Tsai's strategy was to de facto back Ko in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  so he wins and does not run in 2020 while having Su run in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)  to keep it close so the KMT could not focus on Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).   DPP power-brokers rejected this forced Tsai to nominate a DPP candidate which increased the chances of a Ko run.  At this stage the best game theory result for Tsai is for KMT to win in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and Ko to get a poor result while DPP holds Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) so she will avoid any "Primary" challenge.  Not sure things will work out that way.

The good news for Tsai is while it is hard for her to achieve all 3 goals simultaneously it is unlikely she will fail on all 3.  Meaning I cannot see a way for here to a) face a internal "primary" challenge and b) have Ko run in 2020 and c) KMT run someone other than Wu. 

3) With the DPP fielding a candidate in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ko is likely to run for Prez in 2020 if he gets above 40% of the vote regardless if he wins or not.  Talk of a Ko run in 2020 actually helps him in the Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) election since it keeps the media attention on him and sucking the media air out of KMT Ding(丁守中) and DPP Yao(姚文智).  The Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) result will most likely be either be

Ko     40%
KMT   35%
DPP   20%
Others 5%

Where DPP revives and recaptures some of the DPP base but Ko then is able to attract Blue voters since Ko is THE GREEN candidate

OR

KMT   45%
Ko     40%
DPP   10%
Others 5%

Where DPP falls apart which makes Ko THE GREEN candidate and the Blue vote consolidates around KMT's Ding as a result.

Either way Ko is likely to be above 40% and then likely to run in 2020.  The way to stop Ko from running is a ultra-strong DPP comeback

KMT   40%
DPP   30%
Ko     25%
Others 5%

Where DPP take back almost all of its core base leaving Ko with just the independent vote.   Tsai/DPP was hoping for this when they nominated a candidate.  This seems unlikely at this stage.

The CW seems to be that the weaker DPP is the better it is for Ko.  Up to a point that is true as the way to kill off Ko is for DPP to do very well.  But my take is that if DPP does poorly then Ko will be viewed as the de facto DPP candidate and the larger Pan-Blue vote in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) will consolidate around KMT's Ding.  I guess if DPP then falls to 5% or less that will help Ko in last minute tactical voting but even then a outright Green vs Blue showdown in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) in a neutral or slightly pro-Blue should end with a KMT victory.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) after KMT MP Lin(林為洲) broke from the KMT to run as an independent (diff from June)

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)         27.5% (+7.8%)
KMT Yang(楊文科)        23.6% (-2.7%)
KMT rebel Lin(林為洲)  18.1%
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)       6.5% (-3.2%)



With both Hsu and Lin pulling in DPP votes.  I think in the end DPP Cheng(鄭朝方) should get at least 20% of the vote and most likely end up third or even second place.  MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩) seems in a good position to win.