2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: May 24, 2018, 05:03:35 PM »

KMT "primaries" held in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11). 

For  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  it will be Han(韓國瑜) who is actually from the Deep Blue branch of the KMT but due to his fairly high charisma could make the race competitive even thought the KMT has a fairly low chance of winning. 


For  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) the KMT will nominate Kao(高思博) who is a son of a former KMT Tainan Mayor as well as the brother-in-law of current New Taipei City Mayor and 2016 KMT Prez candidate Zhu.  Kao will have to rely on his family roots in Tainan politics to make the race competitive.


What should help Kao is former TSU MP Shu(許忠信) will also run and split the Pan-Green vote. Worse former DPP Prez Chen seems to be coming out to back Shu.  Chen's angle is to create trouble for DPP Prez Tsai to the point where she has not choice but to grant Chen a parden as he is in theory still on medical parole. 


What hurts Kao is that Pro-Bue former Tainan chief of police Chen(陳子敬) is also looking to run.  Chen seems open to holding a second round "primary" between Chen and Kao to determine a United Front Pan-Blue candidate.  KMT talks with Chen are in progress.  But if Chen runs then there is zero chance of the race in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) being competitive which is the most the KMT can hope for.



KMT has other problems in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) where there are multiple KMT candidates and KMT high command has to figure out how to run a "primary" that all parties see as fair and not bolt.  In addition KMT spliter MKT will be running MKT leader and founder Shu (徐欣瑩) will be running and will take a large chunk of the KMT vote.

In Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) where the KMT incumbent seems set to win a landslide victory against a pro-DPP independent is now facing a potential KMT rebel in the form of his KMT predecessor Liu(劉政鴻) who is threatening to run based on based changes the KMT incumbent made to various budget priorities Liu set when he was the county magistrate.

These problems in safe KMT counties highlight the unprecedented  environment KMT now has to operate in where it lost control of both the Executive and Legislative branches and lack the resources to settle these conflicts offline.  Dealing with these rebellions without resources  are part of the process of the KMT shift toward an election machine party versus a clientelist organization at the local level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #76 on: May 27, 2018, 12:39:59 PM »

It is not official yet but it is said that a "primary" was held between DDP MP Yao(姚文智) and Former DPP VP Lu(呂秀蓮) in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and that Yao won.  This seems to pave the way for DPP to nominate Yao.



This seems, for now, the worst outcome for DPP.  Ideally DPP forms an alliance with Ko backs Ko against KMT's Ding or brings in someone so strong (like Former Tainan Mayor and now PM Lai(賴清德) or former Kaoshiung Mayor Chen (陳菊)) where in a polarized race Ko would be the victim of pan-Green tactical voting.

Now the DPP will have to run in third place and its only chance is to hammer Ko down so the Pan-Green vote shifts to Yao.  If DPP fails in this which is likely then the chances are high that Ding would win with Ko coming out of the election blaming DPP for his defeat.  And along they way as DPP goes after Ko the pro-Ko DPP youth vote in Northern Taiwan Province might turnout lower for DPP candidates.  Alternatively toward the end of the campaign DPP mostly drops Yao and tactically vote for Ko to make it a Ding/Ko 50/50 race.  But in that case the DPP Taipei City assembly races would see significant impact.

If it is Yao is the DPP candidate, then on proxy would be the 27 DPP city assembly candidates.   If they start to run away from Yao and starts aligning with Ko you can tell DPP high command has given up on Yao and is a mode to back Ko against Ding.
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« Reply #77 on: May 27, 2018, 01:34:07 PM »

Do you think the KMT can survive long-term?
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: May 27, 2018, 08:58:13 PM »

Couple of new polls. 

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)..  ETToday (mostly neutral but I guess a slight pro-Blue lean) poll has it at

DPP                 31.2%
KMT                18.5%
Pro-Blue Ind.     4.5%
Ind.                  2.9%



Which is a fairly poor poll for DPP when radical pro-independence pan-Green  Shu(許忠信) who is in the race was not included.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).  Pro-Blue UDN poll has it

Support
KMT     39
DPP      32

Who is likely to win
DPP     39
KMT    25



Which implies a neck-to-neck race given the UDN house effects.  On the other hand DPP candidate Lin  is the incumbent so he so be polling better this. So overall this is a fairly poor poll for DPP as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: May 28, 2018, 02:42:19 PM »


Clearly it can as there will always be a need for a Center-Right mainstream party in ROC.  The question is can KMT play that role and survive while keeping some vestiges of its pre-2000 era.  Namely can the KMT remain the main Center-Right party of ROC WHILE being A party of Chinese nationalism (in the pre-1970s era the KMT was THE party of Chinese nationalism.)  

The answer was fairly cloudy in the 2014-2017 period but by 2018 it is clear that pro-unification sentiment on ROC is recovering due to the problematic tenure of the DPP regime.  KMT Chairman Wu(吳敦義) has historically came from the non-unification branch of the KMT and him winning power as the head of the KMT was seen as a trend toward KMT as a Taiwan regionism force (think a DPP clone but more willing to do business with PRC) versus a Chinese nationalist force.  

But recently Wu came out strongly for unification in a critique of DPP Prez Tsai saying that the ROC Constitution states clearly that reunification with the Mainland is the goal and that if Tsai claims that she is carrying out her role under the ROC Constitution then she should not pursue any policies that is toward Taiwan Independence.   Of course Wu said this under the clear recent trend in public opinion toward unification.  In the latest poll by the ROC Mainland Affairs Council the Unification vs Independence support was 17.1% vs 19.3% when in the 2004-2016 period it was mostly in the 11% vs 24% region.  This is the most pro-unification sentiment since 2002.

Of course for the KMT to survive it has to make a comeback in Southern Taiwan Province.  Here something took place recently in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) mayor race points to the way how that might be done.  What took place was a large bloc of the Kaoshiung Presbyterian Church decided to break with its anti-KMT tradition which stretches back to the 1960s and come out to back the KMT candidate.  Same with some Buddhist and Taoist organizations which defected to the DPP 10-15 years ago.  What drove them to do this was their objection to recent policies of the DPP regime at the center that added a more sympathetic view of LGBT and non-traditional family lifestyles in public school curriculum.  This is exactly what I predicted might take place as the DPP made progress in urban areas last couple of election cycles based on progressive values that appeals to the urban youth and urban middle class.  The KMT counterattack has to be its own tradtional values based "Operation Dixie" in the South and it seems to be taking places on its own.  

It just shows there are no permanent majorities and a coalition of everyone will not last long.

Speaking of Gay marriage that is still the big hidden ticking time bomb issue that could come out and blow up the DPP.  While political cleavage is centered around the Unification-Independence debate the DPP is safe but if the salience of the Unification-Independence  debate were to decline then social issues like Gay marriage could create significant issues for the DPP and the Pan-Greens as a whole.  

The reason is shown in a chart drawn up by former DPP MP and now political commentator Sheng Fu-Shiung

The X axis is Conservative-Progressive axis with Progressive on the Right.  The Y axis is the unification-independence axis with independence at the top.  DPP core is to the Upper Left side of chart while NGO youth activist bloc is the Upper Right side of the chart.


The basic idea is the Green bubble is where the DPP MPs are at.  But the White Bubble on the Upper Left box is where the DPP core vote is.  The DPP activist base in Northern Taiwan is the small bubble on the Upper Right corner.  The Blue bubble is where the KMT MPs which also overlaps with the KMT vote base.

The problem is clear for the DPP.  Its core vote base Southern Taiwan are made up of Bubbas and Billy Bobs yet its activist based in the North are made up of Progressive activist youth and the DPP MPs somewhere in the middle.  While the KMT is all-powerful and political cleavage mostly about unification-independence the Pan-Green coalition can hold together.  But if political debate shifts to cultural issues like Gay Marriage DPP risk losing its Northern activist based to NPP and losing its socially conservative vote base in Southern Taiwan to the old KMT factional leaders who themselves are fairly socially conservative.  

It is clear for the reason Tsai (who personally clearly for Gay marriage) is petrified of the Gay Marriage issue and pretty much done everything possible to push it to the courts and trying to take it out of the political zone of debate.  

If the  Unification-Independence issue does loses salience (which seems unlikely for the next couple of years) I can see a realignment which actually reverse the previous large realignment of 1990-2004.  In the 1980s the KMT was dominant in the rural and low educated areas while the DPP was seen as a liberal-progressive urban force even as among economic elites the KMT still dominated.  As  the Unification-Independence issue gained salience this pattern reversed during the 1990-2004 where the KMT became much stronger in the cities which tended to benefit from economic integration with Mainland China while DPP became much stronger in rural areas where they tend to suffer from economic integration with Mainland China.  If the  Unification-Independence become less salient we might revert to a political pattern more like the 1980s.  To some extent the Tsai 2016 campaign which focused on her appeal to the urban progressive youth is already a step in that direction as her relative swings where much stronger in urban areas in 2016.  The next step is for the KMT to use Gay Marriage as a wedge issue to split the DPP coalition.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: May 28, 2018, 04:37:18 PM »

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) poll by pro-Blue Chinatimes has KMT within striking distance.  KMT fairly strong in middle age voters

DPP   39.5%
KMT  31.1%





While vote for Kaoshiung City Assembly is neck-to-neck between DPP and KMT

DPP   28.9%
KMT   29.7%



Of course KMT's Han(韓國瑜) most likely got a bump from he being nominated but the race seems a lot closer than what it seems before the kMT "primary."
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« Reply #81 on: May 28, 2018, 06:11:15 PM »

It's interesting how Chinese identification declines when the KMT is in power, and resurges when the DPP is in power.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: May 29, 2018, 12:31:27 PM »

Latest Apple Daily poll (tend to be anti-KMT and slightly pro-Ko) for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
has a virtual tie between Ding and Ko

KMT Ding(丁守中)           29.1%
pro-DPP Ko(柯文哲)        29.0%
DPP Yao(姚文智)             13.5%



What should worry Ko is with Pan-Blue voters it is Ding 75% Ko 18%.  But with Pan-Green voters it is Yao 60% Ko 34%. So if Yao is able to get campaign and focus on consolidating the pan-Green vote Ko will fall behind Ding. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: May 29, 2018, 12:39:59 PM »

It's interesting how Chinese identification declines when the KMT is in power, and resurges when the DPP is in power.

Correct.  That is a function of feasibility concerns.  Before the 1990s unification support was high but that was because a) pro-independence position was technically illegal (which was one of the reasons why I was pro-independence in the 1980s as it was more of an issue of free speech) and b) unification was seen as a fusion of two equal entities and not a PRC takeover and mostly c) unification was not realistic so it was easy to back something that was not realistic.

Independence support surged in the 1990s due to the rise of the PRC and a PRC takeover became more possible.  By the same token the DPP 2000 victory meant that independence became more realistic and as a result pro-unification position surged in the 2000-2002 period.

DPP Prez Chen did move the needle and pushed for a referendum law and pushed hard on Taiwanese identity in 2002 ironically because his administration was running into trouble and it was clear that he was not going to win over pan-Blue voters.  So DPP Prez Chen pushed to consolidate the pro-Independence bloc even at the expense of losing out on the even larger anti-Independence bloc.

Pro-unification KMT Ma's election in 2008 made independence out of the question but made unification more likely given a remote but possible deal between KMT and CCP.   As result pro-independence position surged.  As Ma's administration ran into problems starting in 2013 that merely added to the pro-independence position.

Now that DPP's Tsai is in charge the roles are reversed and with her administration going badly it is reasonable that pro-unification position that surged to a 2002 high.

What one can draw from this is the ROC voting population just want status qua to go on forever. Unfortunately that might not be sustainable over the next couple of decades.   
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« Reply #84 on: May 29, 2018, 06:36:17 PM »


Clearly it can as there will always be a need for a Center-Right mainstream party in ROC.  The question is can KMT play that role and survive while keeping some vestiges of its pre-2000 era.  Namely can the KMT remain the main Center-Right party of ROC WHILE being A party of Chinese nationalism (in the pre-1970s era the KMT was THE party of Chinese nationalism.)  

The answer was fairly cloudy in the 2014-2017 period but by 2018 it is clear that pro-unification sentiment on ROC is recovering due to the problematic tenure of the DPP regime.  KMT Chairman Wu(吳敦義) has historically came from the non-unification branch of the KMT and him winning power as the head of the KMT was seen as a trend toward KMT as a Taiwan regionism force (think a DPP clone but more willing to do business with PRC) versus a Chinese nationalist force.  

But recently Wu came out strongly for unification in a critique of DPP Prez Tsai saying that the ROC Constitution states clearly that reunification with the Mainland is the goal and that if Tsai claims that she is carrying out her role under the ROC Constitution then she should not pursue any policies that is toward Taiwan Independence.   Of course Wu said this under the clear recent trend in public opinion toward unification.  In the latest poll by the ROC Mainland Affairs Council the Unification vs Independence support was 17.1% vs 19.3% when in the 2004-2016 period it was mostly in the 11% vs 24% region.  This is the most pro-unification sentiment since 2002.

Of course for the KMT to survive it has to make a comeback in Southern Taiwan Province.  Here something took place recently in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) mayor race points to the way how that might be done.  What took place was a large bloc of the Kaoshiung Presbyterian Church decided to break with its anti-KMT tradition which stretches back to the 1960s and come out to back the KMT candidate.  Same with some Buddhist and Taoist organizations which defected to the DPP 10-15 years ago.  What drove them to do this was their objection to recent policies of the DPP regime at the center that added a more sympathetic view of LGBT and non-traditional family lifestyles in public school curriculum.  This is exactly what I predicted might take place as the DPP made progress in urban areas last couple of election cycles based on progressive values that appeals to the urban youth and urban middle class.  The KMT counterattack has to be its own tradtional values based "Operation Dixie" in the South and it seems to be taking places on its own.  

It just shows there are no permanent majorities and a coalition of everyone will not last long.

Interesting, pretty much everything in the Western media (my Chinese isn't good enough yet to follow what either Beijing or Taipei are saying) says that the Kuomintang is collapsing.  They claim that Chinese identification will continue to decline in the future and that internal struggles are tearing the party apart.  It's great to hear a different view.

Now, this is just the view of an American Sinophile, who has only been to the mainland.  But I don't quite understand the long term goal of the modern KMT.  Obviously from the 1920s to 1949 it was to defeat the warlords and Communists while protecting the nation from Imperial Japan.  From 1949 until at least 1970 it was to provide an alternative model for China's development and prepare for the eventual reconquest of the mainland.  But what is the goal today?  I mean, I heard they don't even call for reunification anymore.  But even if they did support reunification, that opens up another can of worms.  The old KMT did so much to keep the PRC out of Taiwan and Kinmen.  I just don't understand why the group that fought a bloody, protracted war against Communism decide to join with the PRC.  I can't see a political party with such a long, proud history subordinate itself to the CPC.  But on the other hand, if they don't support reunification, what is their purpose?

Nevertheless, I'm wishing all the luck on the Kuomintang in November and hoping they take back power in 2020.  I have a huge affinity for the party for historical reasons and from what I've seen Tsai Ing-wen does not seem like a great president.

Also, what exactly is the point of the Qinmindang?  I don't get why their voters support them over the KMT, which is very similar.
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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: May 30, 2018, 07:40:04 AM »

DPP formally nominates Yao(姚文智)  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) setting up a 3 way race between KMT DPP and Ko.

It is fairly clear what DPP's high command strategy for 2018 election is, which is all about securing DPP Tsai's re-election in 2020.  The minimum goal is to win Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).   If DPP loses Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then I would rate Tsai's chances of re-election at below 40%.  If DPP can hold Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then I would say Tsai's reelection chances are above 50%.  If DPP can somehow keep Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and get a compliant Ko to keep   Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  then Tsai's chances surges to 80%.

The main DPP strategy to keep  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) is one of diversion.  If the DPP can keep New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) competitive (within 5%)then the KMT will have to focus on New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) to avoid a disastrous defeat.  This is why Tsai went hat in hand to get her rival Su(蘇貞昌) to run in  New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).  So far this leg is not working as Su now finds himself behind in the polls by at least 10% if not more.

The other leg of the DPP strategy is find a way to back Ko to take on the KMT 1-on-1 and yet get the DPP base accept this since Ko's renegade style has pealed off DPP youth base over to him but the old pro-independence DPP are hostile to Ko.  The DPP strategy is to keep on threatening Ko with a DPP candidate and pumping up the DPP's base anger against Ko to get Ko to grovel to Tsai and DPP.  Main problem is Ko called the DPP bluff on the premise that no tier one DPP candidate will be willing to run in a election where they are likely to come in third.  Worse the anger DPP pumped up against Ko which was suppose to be for show became real to the point that DPP had to nominate someone to avoid a split in the party.  So in the end a tier two candidate like s Yao(姚文智) had to be nominated.   If seems that DPP's strategy going forward is to try to push up s Yao(姚文智) support to a point where Ko will have to come begging for a deal with the DPP or face certain defeat.

The KMT strategy in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is to project Yao as a dummy candidate and Ko as the true Pan-Green candidate.  This is because KMT in many ways is sitting pretty.   Assuming KMT keeps its ~43% vote base and the large number of Blue and Green Independents take around 7%, DPP has to collapse to single digits for KMT to have a risk of losing.  For now the KMT will assume that Tsai and DPP high command will not accept such an outcome.  So the main risk for the KMT is for Yao(姚文智) to catch fire and become "The Green candidate" which opens up Ko to capture votes from the Blue vote base eating into KMT Ding's ~43%. So no matter what KMT needs to keep Ko away from its core vote and labeling Ko as the Green candidate is the way to do it.   Ideally for the KMT Yao's support should be around 15%-20% which means Ko would be seen as KMT's main opponent and makes it easier to label Ko as the Green candidate which would ensure a easy KMT victory.  Later in the campaign if Yao's support falls below 15% there will be a risk for the KMT that DPP high command might throw in the towel and work to shift DPP votes toward Ko to block Ding.  KMT is figuring that would not take place due to a) such a result will be a major humiliation of DPP high command and Prez Tsai b) this would provoke outrage from the DPP core vote in other counties and cities.

The DPP-Ko breakup is already hurting DPP in other elections.  In Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) an ex-TSU MP who ran in 2014 as well is running again.  Ko will be backing her and could shift a bunch of youth vote toward her.  But this is the same youth vote the DPP is counting on to try to keep this seat from a stronger KMT challenger.
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jaichind
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« Reply #86 on: May 30, 2018, 07:58:35 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2018, 11:58:27 AM by jaichind »

In a shock, as soon as DPP nominated Yao(姚文智)  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), DPP ex-VP Lu (呂秀蓮) was as also working for the DPP nomination announced that she will quit DPP.  I guess soon after that she will be running as an independent.  This is a death blow to DPP and accelerate the marginalization of Yao(姚文智).    This is sort of neutral to Ko.  One the one hand it makes it more likely that anti-Ding DPP vote swill flow to him.  On the other hand there is another candidate to split the anti-Ding vote.

So for the  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) we have a crowed field.  My guesstimate of the result would be

KMT Ding(丁守中)             43.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    36.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               10.0%    Pan-Green
DPP rebel Lu(呂秀蓮)          3.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Taoyuan and ex-VP of ROC)
KMT rebel Li(李錫錕)           2.0%    Pan-Blue (1989 KMT candidate for Taipei county magistrate)
DPP rebel Su(蘇煥智)          2.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Tainan)
Pro-Blue Chiu(邱文祥)         1.5%    Pan-Blue (medical doctor with pro-Blue leanings)
SDP  Fang(范雲)                 1.0%    Pan-Green  (family friend)
TIP Gu(古文發)                   0.5%    Pan-Green  (radical pro-independence)
Ind Shu(許純美)                  0.5%   (actress)
Ind Cheng(鄭伊廷)              0.5%

Blue/Green split is 46.5/52.5.  It is clear that Ko will capture a chunk of the pan-Blue vote since in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) the Blue/Green split is around 55/45.
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jaichind
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« Reply #87 on: May 30, 2018, 11:49:16 AM »


Interesting, pretty much everything in the Western media (my Chinese isn't good enough yet to follow what either Beijing or Taipei are saying) says that the Kuomintang is collapsing.  They claim that Chinese identification will continue to decline in the future and that internal struggles are tearing the party apart.  It's great to hear a different view.

Now, this is just the view of an American Sinophile, who has only been to the mainland.  But I don't quite understand the long term goal of the modern KMT.  Obviously from the 1920s to 1949 it was to defeat the warlords and Communists while protecting the nation from Imperial Japan.  From 1949 until at least 1970 it was to provide an alternative model for China's development and prepare for the eventual reconquest of the mainland.  But what is the goal today?  I mean, I heard they don't even call for reunification anymore.  But even if they did support reunification, that opens up another can of worms.  The old KMT did so much to keep the PRC out of Taiwan and Kinmen.  I just don't understand why the group that fought a bloody, protracted war against Communism decide to join with the PRC.  I can't see a political party with such a long, proud history subordinate itself to the CPC.  But on the other hand, if they don't support reunification, what is their purpose?

Nevertheless, I'm wishing all the luck on the Kuomintang in November and hoping they take back power in 2020.  I have a huge affinity for the party for historical reasons and from what I've seen Tsai Ing-wen does not seem like a great president.

Also, what exactly is the point of the Qinmindang?  I don't get why their voters support them over the KMT, which is very similar.

I think the 2016-2017 period the narrative of the KMT in terminal decline is quite apt. Even as DPP was stumbling when it took over the KMT did not seem to benefit and if anything outsiders like Ko were gaining support as the alternative to the DPP.   The KMT was mired in civil war between its pro-unification vs non-unification factions in an environment where the general population was hostile to unification but a KMT without the banner of Chinese nationalism would lack a central vision.  Furthermore KMT without resources of being the incumbent party at both the Pres and Legislative level mean that the old KMT way of running elections was in danger of breaking down due to lack of resources.

Nome of that stopping being true but as 2018 came around the nature of the election campaign self-organized the KMT into a more viable and continued incompetence  of the DPP regime drove support to the KMT as the only real viable alternative as well as pushed up support for unification.  In many ways this is a replay of 2008-2010 when after the 2008 KMT landslide election it was thought that it would take the DPP at least 4 election cycles to come back after the disastrous corruption scandals of DPP Prez Chen.   The very nature of KMT stumbling, especially in the 2013-2014 period, make the DPP comeback only take 8 year and in 2016 DPP won with an unprecedented majority.   The way things are going the KMT has a 50/50 shot at winning in 2020 and is very likely to win in 2024.

As for PFP(親民黨) it is a KMT splinter and personality party of James Soong(宋楚瑜) who was an up and coming KMT superstar destined to lead the KMT.  But a diasterous KMT civil war  between Soong and his rival Lien Chan(連戰) lead to a KMT defeat of 2000 and crated the PFP.  The party mostly exist for KMT rebels to run to and most likely will come to an end when Soong retires.  In 2016 James Soong's PFP did fairly well as pro-KMT voters that wanted to teach the KMT a lesson voted PFP.  At this stage given the disastrous nature of the DPP regime most of them have gone back to backing the KMT again even if the KMT is led by a fairly listless leadership.
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jaichind
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« Reply #88 on: June 01, 2018, 06:57:44 PM »

Latest TVBS (pro-Blue) poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

KMT Ding(丁守中)             33.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    31.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               13.0%    Pan-Green



If Lu gets into the race then it is

KMT Ding(丁守中)             35.0%    Pan-Blue
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    29.0%    Pan-Green (for now) although is likely to ally with Pan-Blue PFP
DPP Yao(姚文智)               11.0%    Pan-Green
DPP rebel Lu(呂秀蓮)          5.0%    Pan-Green (ex-county magistrate of Taoyuan and ex-VP of ROC)


Which is sort of close to my guesstimate of the result
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jaichind
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« Reply #89 on: June 01, 2018, 07:00:52 PM »

Just to show how much the youth vote has abandoned the DPP in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and perhaps other areas, the number of people that watches a daily live-stream called "Watch Mayor Ko Eat Lunch" which is, well, basically Ko eating a normal lunch must be 50 times higher than the recent internet only live-stream of a live interview of DPP Prez Tsai.
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jaichind
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« Reply #90 on: June 01, 2018, 07:28:36 PM »

Somewhat pro-Green poll aggregation has DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval at a record low of 27/59. 

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jaichind
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« Reply #91 on: June 02, 2018, 08:27:31 AM »

Ettoday (slight pro-Blue bias) poll for Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)

DPP  32.8%
KMT  19.6%


A lead of this sort by an incumbent is actually somewhat problematic for DPP given that it is the incumbent running.    Of course the KMT candidate Chang(張麗善) also ran in 2014 and is the sister of former KMT county magistrate and leader of the still powerful Chang faction.  She did not really want to run again but the KMT put in a lot of effort to get her to run.  She will not win but it seems the race will be closer than 2014 by some margin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #92 on: June 04, 2018, 06:36:35 PM »

Latest Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

KMT Ding(丁守中)             40.2%     
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    34.7%     
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12.2%   

If it is clear that Yao cannot win and will end up third then it will be

KMT Ding(丁守中)             43.7%     
Pro-DPP Ind. Ko(柯文哲)    38.5%     
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 6.8%

Which seems to show that there is an solid anti-Ko bloc of pro-DPP voters that would even vote Ding to avoid Ko from winning.

What is disastrous for DPP is the generic vote for City assembly  which is

KMT   39.4%
DPP    16.6%
NPP      2.8%

which reflects ths vertical split of the Taipei DPP between pro-KO and anti-KO factions.  With, for now, DPP going on the warpath on Ko the pro-Ko bloc of the DPP are holding back their support of DPP assembly candidate.  Most likely the DPP will fall to below Ma 2002 landslide levels most because unlike 2002 the pan-Blue vote will be consolidated behind KMT when in 2002 the pan-Blue were split between KMT and PFP.
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« Reply #93 on: June 10, 2018, 04:32:15 PM »

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) has DPP way ahead

DPP Huang(黃偉哲)          40.3%
KMT Gao(高思博)             17.3%
Pan-Blue Chen(陳子敬)      6.5%
Ex-TSU rebel Shu(許忠信)  5.9%



For Gao to have any chance of keeping it close KMT has to convince Chen to withdraw and Shu has to stay in the race.

Same poll has vote for City Assembly has DPP way ahead

DPP   36.7%
KMT   21.1%
NPP     1.8%
TSU    0.7%
PFP     0.4%
NP      0.3%
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« Reply #94 on: June 13, 2018, 08:43:55 AM »

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) does not run as a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               56.9%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    17.6%

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) runs a a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               46.5%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    10.3%
KMT rebel Liu(劉政鴻)          8.6%



This is the most pro-KMT county on Taiwan Province.  I suspect if Liu(劉政鴻) does run his vote share is underestimated. Pro-DPP independent is most likely underestimated as well as the pro-DPP vote should be at least 30% if Liu(劉政鴻) does not run.
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jaichind
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« Reply #95 on: June 13, 2018, 08:48:04 AM »

Ettoday (slightly pro-Blue) poll for Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6)

KMT Lin(林姿妙)          41.2%
DPP Chen(陳歐珀)       15.8%
KMT rebel Lin (林信華)  3.9%

Obviously underestimates DPP.  But the gap highlights Lin(林姿妙) strength and the fact that is is the heavy favorite to win in this traditionally DPP county (back in 1980s  Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) was the most anti-KMT county).  Lin(林姿妙) could be a future KMT superstar if her tenure as Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) county magistrate goes well.  I can see her being on the KMT national ticket beyond 2024.
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jaichind
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« Reply #96 on: June 13, 2018, 09:22:06 PM »

Ettoday poll for Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT Shu(徐榛蔚)        44.4%
DPP Liu(劉曉玫)          19.0%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) is one of the most pro-Blue counties although recently DPP have been gaining ground here, especially with the non-Aborigine vote.  Shu(徐榛蔚) is the wife of the pro-KMT independent incumbent and seems set to win.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #97 on: June 14, 2018, 06:58:05 PM »

Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) has DPP incumbent way ahead

DPP Cheng(鄭文燦)   51.5%
KMT Chen(陳學聖)    24.9%

But due to the fundamentals of  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) having a pro-KMT lean especially at the local level the KMT is way ahead for City Assembly vote

KMT   35.1%
DPP   13.8%
NPP     1.0%



DPP incumbent should win the race with ease but KMT's strong fundamentals means that the KMT candidate could keep it close if there is a small KMT wave.
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jaichind
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« Reply #98 on: June 26, 2018, 08:38:03 PM »

New TVBS (pro-KMT) poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) has KMT Ho opening up a 17 point lead over DPP Kingpin Su.

KMT Ho (侯友宜)    48(+8)
DPP Su (蘇貞昌)     31(-1)



The DPP spent a lot time this last month on the attack against Ho in hopes of keeping New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) close and preventing the KMT from using Ho to campaign in other races.  It seems things are not working out for DPP.
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« Reply #99 on: June 27, 2018, 05:23:37 AM »

Are the KMT basically their version of the GOP or Conservative Party as a pro-business, free marketist party (I understand this is highly simplified and that every country has its nuances)? And their DPP is basically their Democratic Party?

In respect to policy, I understand while their health care model on paper looks efficient, I understand the system is overburdened, does Taiwan need to raise its taxes by a moderate amount to upgrade their health care system and make it less overwhelmed? Additionally, other than relations with the mainland, what are some other pressing issues for Taiwan?

Jaichind, who would you support and are there any policies you would like to be introduced, implemented or revamped?
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