2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2018, 09:12:55 AM »
« edited: February 13, 2018, 10:03:47 AM by jaichind »

DPP is actually lucky that they have fairly popular incumbents in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5), Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5), and Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8) or else these cities will fall to the KMT as well.  Unless the KMT wave become a tidal wave which seems unlikely the DPP incumbents should pull through.  Hsinchu City(新竹市) would be the most dangerous for DPP since the old KMT mayor is running to his old seat back.  In all 3 most likely the KMT will have to wait for 2022 to recapture these cities and that is assuming Tsai wins re-election in 2020 so the KMT can take advantage of DPP double incumbency at the national level.  

Developments in Taoyuan City (桃園市) is actually quite ominous for KMT as the popular DPP incumbent seems fairly successful in changing the lean of the city.  I suspect in the future even after Tsai has passed on Taoyuan City (桃園市) might not vote for the KMT in the same margins as before even if the KMT might recapture Taoyuan City (桃園市) in 2022.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2018, 01:16:16 PM »

The current situation in Taipei city mayor election is an entire mess and risks throwing the election to the incumbent Ko despite a functionally disastrous, although not from a popularity point of view, term so far.

Back in 2014 Deep Green supporter and famous doctor but political novice Ko (柯文哲) defeated the KMT candidate in a landslide as a pro-DPP independent after the KMT won Taipei City 4 elections in a row.  Ko appealed to the youth vote with his anti-establishment image and style and won in a low KMT turnout election.


For a while Ko got along well with the DPP and was instrumental in the 2016 DPP landslide victory in the Prez and legislative race.  Ko's own turn as mayor after a few month showed that he was great on style but in terms of substance was poor in delivery as he was shown up as a poor administrator. Once Tsai got into office and the burden of incumbency began to weigh down the DPP Ko saw that 2018 would a difficult race for him to win if the pan-Blue vote consolidated around the KMT.  Ko also has national ambitions and calculated that a weak KMT and a unpopular DPP might mean a chance for him to run in 2020 or 2024 as a third party candidate and perhaps win.

Ko's next step even as his administration of Taipei city continue to be in shambles and started losing support of the DPP in the city assembly, was to turn toward a pro-Beijing position while claiming to be an ally of Tsai/DPP to attract attacks from pan-Green camp which would set him up to try to capture some of the pan-Blue vote as well as insulate him from the fall in DPP popularity.  Ko's maverick style continue to attract him you support and a successful 2017 Summer Universiade also worked to drive up Ko's ratings. 

On the DPP side the anger is building up in core DPP circles in Taipei over Ko's pro-Beijing positions and has been putting pressures on DPP high command to run a candidate in Taipei City in 2018.  The DPP Taipei City branch was especially concerned that the DPP city assembly candidates could have to run in 2018 as an enemy of Ko but without a DPP mayor candidate to lead them which in turn will lower DPP turnout throwing the city assembly election toward the KMT.  The main concern from Tsai point of view, is that a DPP candidate would split the anti-KMT vote and throw the election toward the KMT.  That would setup the KMT as a strong contender in 2020 and an angry Ko would run in 2020 taking the Youth vote away from Tsai.   Here the long term interest of Tsai and DPP diverges.  Tsai want to delay confronting Ko until after 2020 while doing so only weakens DPP in Taipei City.

On the KMT side the front runner to recapture Taipei City was Chiang(蔣萬安) who is the great grandson of ROC Prez and KMT leader Chiang Kai-Shek.  In Jan 2018 Chiang declined to run mostly on the calculation that Tsai would eventually run Ko and at best it is a tossup between him and Ko.   If so he rather conserve his political capital and run in 2022 when he would most likely win in a landslide if Ko wins re-election.  In this situation the likely winner of the KMT "primary" would be Ding (丁守中) who is a fairly bland candidate that can keep the KMT vote but would find it hard to win independents from Ko in a 1-on-1 race.


Given that if Ding ran for KMT and DPP backs Ko the race is at best tossup for KMT, there continues to be pressure on the KMT side to draft Eric Chu(朱立倫), incumbent New Taipei City mayor, failed 2016 KMT Prez candidate and possible 2020 KMT Prez candidate. 
 

Chu is term limited for New Taipei City and the draft Chu camp in KMT is making the argument that if Chu can recapture Taipei City for KMT in 2018 it sets him up well in 2024 for Prez if Tsai wins re-election which at worst is even money.

The prospect of Ding running for the KMT increases the chance that Ko will win re-election and this is pushing up the anger within the Taipei DPP both in terms of a) a strong DPP candidate could win against Ko and a bland KMT Ding in a 3 way race and b) backing Ko in 2018 would harm the DPP city assembly candidate chances and c) DPP has to put up with Ko for another 4 year and d) there is no reason why Ko, up winning, re-election, would not run in 2020 anyway and e) DPP just look like a coward in face of Ko outright attacks on DPP while at the same time claiming to be an "ally" of the DPP.

Taipei City DPP MP Yao(姚文智) is pushing the DPP high command to nominate him.  Yao wanted to run in 2014 but was waved off by the DPP high command to let Ko run with DPP support to ensure a defeat of the KMT.


Yao is seen as a lightweight and DPP high command view him as merely a spoiler for Ko throwing the race to the KMT if Yao were to run.  Then a few days ago with DPP core base anger of Tsai's accommodation of Ko boiling over, ex-DPP ROC Vice Prez Lu (呂秀蓮) threw her hat into the race.


It seems Lu is running just to force Tsai's hand to run a DPP candidate no matter what to take away the argument that DPP could not come up with someone with stature to take on Ko and the KMT in Taipei City.  The idea is that Lu's position as ROC Vice President 2000-2008 should be be stature enough.  Of course Lu is fairly polarizing and would never really be the DPP candidate.  But her coming out to run shows what the DPP grassroots are thinking which more and more leaning toward: We rather the KMT win then a traitor like Ko win.  If we run an lose at least we lose with our heads held high.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2018, 01:23:47 PM »

My best guess right now for Taipai City mayor election for the different scenarios would be

Ko vs Ding (really 50/50 as the DPP turnout would fall a lot taking away from the anti-KMT vote, I think Ding is underestimated in a 1-on-1 race against Ko given the DPP base's negativity toward Ko)
Ko(ind)        51%
Ding(KMT)   49%

Ko vs Ding vs Yao
Ko(ind)        35%
Ding(KMT)   40%
Yao(DPP)     25%

If KMT ran Chu then he would pretty much win under any scenario.  Really comes down to if Chu is willing to run and give up a chance to run in 2020 as Prez candidate for KMT and instead target 2024.
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Octowakandi
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2018, 01:45:48 PM »

Why has the Tsai administration cratered in popularity so much? Is it a bad economy, corruption scandals, aloofness?
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2018, 01:54:24 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2018, 02:48:57 PM by jaichind »

SET News(三立) which is a Deep Green outfit cane out with a poll on Taipei City with Ko vs Yao vs Chu

Ko(ind)        40.3%
Chu(KMT)    35.0%
Yao(DPP)     14.3%

Ko(ind)        39.8%
Ding(KMT)   30.3%
Yao(DPP)     13.9%

Ko(ind)        40.1%
Ding(KMT)   31.6%
Lu(DPP)       12.2%

Ko(ind)        34.9%
Ding(KMT)   29.7%
Chen(DPP)   21.9%  (Chen is Current DPP Kaoshing Mayor and talked about as a DPP draft candidate)

Ko(ind)         47.6%
Chu(KMT)     40.0%

Ko(ind)         47.0%
Ding(KMT)    39.1%

Of course SET News polls have a large negative house effect on the KMT vote AND neither Chu/Ding nor Yao/Lu/Chen have been nominated yet.  Still this poll gives the dynamics of the race correctly that Yao will most likely be a spoiler for Ko which is exactly what Tsai and DPP high command is worried about.

If is also interesting that Chu is not doing that much better than Ding.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2018, 08:12:00 PM »

Why has the Tsai administration cratered in popularity so much? Is it a bad economy, corruption scandals, aloofness?

Mostly over-promising in the 2016 campaign and then under-delivering after coming into the office.  Tsai made all sorts of "have it both ways" promises on pension reform, labor reform, mainland China relationship, energy policy etc etc and after coming into office all these issues blew up in her face because it then became obvious she could not have it both ways.

What is funny was that she was such a shoe in for 2016 that there was no need to make the promises she made.  She would have won even without making them. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2018, 11:13:22 AM »

A history of pan-Blue/pan-Green vote shares based on my calculations since 1989 (which is the real start of competitive elections across the board)

1989 Municpal               55.1/44.2  Taipei City and Kaoshiung City mayor not electable
1992 Legislature            60.7/35.4  KMT splinter Proto-NP was born
1993/94 Municipal cycle 55.9/43.7  Peak of NP influence
1995 Legislature            61.3/36.8  Slight ebbing of NP but was able to deny KMT majority
1996 Presidential           78.9/21.3  KMT Lee took a lot of Pan-Green votes so it was really 65/35
1997/98 Municipal cycle 52.3/47.1  Pan-Blue vote was hopelessly split leading to a KMT rout
1998 Legislature            61.7/35.6  NP in free fall with NP vote going mostly back to KMT
2000 Presidential           59.9/40.1  Pan-Blue vote was split leading to DPP victory
2001 Legislature            54.6/43.7  KMT splinter TSU (Pan-Green) and PFP (Pan-Blue) formed
2001/02 Municipal cycle 52.9/46.7  KMT comeback
2004 Presidential           49.9/50.1 DPP Chen "shot" day before election leading to DPP surge, if it
                                                     not been that "shot" it would have been 54/46 based on polls
2004 Legislature            54.5/44.6  Pan-Blue keeps majority, DPP Chen second term in trouble
2005/06 Municipal cycle 54.8/44.6  Ma leads KMT to landslide victory
2008 Legislature            57.7/42.3  New FPTP system leads to KMT landslide
2008 Presidential           58.4/41.6  Ma/KMT landslide
2009/10 Municipal cycle 51.2/48.6  Anti-incumbency kicks in, mostly draw
2012 Legislature            54.5/45.5  KMT able to marginalize PFP to win majority
2012 Presidential           54.4/45.6  Ma able to marginalize PFP to win re-election
2014 Municipal              43.5/55.9  Divide KMT falls apart
2016 Legislature            43.4/56.6  Further divisions in KMT leads to record defeat
2016 Presidential           43.9/56.1  PFP and DPP surge as divide KMT falls apart

Pan-Blue held the upper hand throughout until the 2014-2016 re-alignment where now Pan-Greens had the upper hand in a series of elections with very low Pan-Blue turnout.  I reckon the Pan-Blue/Pan-Green balance is now around 50/50 so turnout will define win/loss going forward.

For Municipal elections Pan-Greens tends to historically over-perform but that might be a function of   Pan-Blue having the upper hand in national elections. With the playing field now more 50/50 it would be interesting to see what the vote share would be in the 2018.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2018, 02:12:02 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2018, 02:14:40 PM by jaichind »

In Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)  KMT will nominate Shu (徐榛蔚) wife (or really ex-wife) of the current pro-KMT independent incumbent Fu.  On why Shu is the ex-wife but not the wife of Fu see by 2014 writeup on this couple.

What is funny about the picture below of Fu and Shu in a rally together is the jacket Shu was wearing literally says "Wife of the County Magistrate" even though in theory they got divorced and the were currently fighting a case of fraudulent divorce by the prosecution office. 

I would like to write the funny story of Hualian County magistrate Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) who just won re-election as a way for me to deal with my depression over the KMT rout.

Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁)



Fu was a member of the KMT which has dominated Hualian County politics for decades.  In the 2004 County magistrate elections Fu failed to get the KMT nomination and switched over to the KMT splinter PFP and ran.  He was defeated by the official KMT candidate.  In 2009 he rejoined the KMT and worked to get the KMT nomination, but due to outstanding charges of corruption the KMT refused to nominate him. So he ran as an independent and beat the official KMT candidate with 56% of the vote.  

But even as he was being sworn in in December 2009, the progress continued into investigations into Fu's past for corruption.  To hedge himself, six days before he took office he divorced his wife Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚) citing irreconcilable differences.

Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚)


And then right before taking office he announced that he will appoint his ex-wife Shu lieutenant county magistrate so she would be in line to take over as county magistrate if he is charged and removed from office.  ROC law says that one cannot appoint a relative to such an office but nothing stops someone from appointing his ex-wife.  What is funny about this "divorce" is that after the divorce is that Shu "moved out" of Fu's house, just to move right next door.  As Fu was taking office after divorcing his wife six days earlier, they held hands and kissed several times during the entire ceremony.  After Fu took office, day in an day out Fu and his ex-wife lieutenant county magistrate pretty much spent all their time in office together including going to work and coming home at the same time.   During the 2012 ROC Prez elections, Fu endorsed the KMT candidate Ma, and both Fu and Shu campaigned for Ma together in various campaign events which also included them holding hands.  The Hualian County prosecution office also charged Fu and Shu with false divorce but Fu claimed he is being falsely charged.

Now, fast forward to the 2014 elections where Fu is running for re-election.  It was Fu running as an independent against the offocial KMT candidate.  There has been more progress in the investigations of  Fu and his corruption charges.   There was a risk that during the campaign Fu might be stripped from the right to even run for office. To hedge against this risk, Fu's ex-wife and current lieutenant county magistrate Shu also announced that she was running for the office of Hualian County magistrate as well.   The idea is that if Fu stopped from running and name taken off the ballot, then his political machine can push his vote to be shifted his ex-wife Shu who then will be elected.


This leads the the spectacle of Fu and Shu running at the same time against each other but showing up in campaign rallies as two rival candidates on paper but taking part in the same event.



There are even campaign posters with both candidates and names of both candidates on the poster.

The idea of the poster is although it is not said explicitly:  Please vote for Fu, but if Fu is charged and name taken off the ballot please vote Shu.



As it is Fu was allowed to run and won with 56% of the vote.  Shu actually captured 3% of the vote. Maybe some supporters of Fu did not get the memo that Fu was not being charged, yet, so he is eligible to take office if he wins.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2018, 02:43:03 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 09:23:16 AM by jaichind »

This election cycle the KMT will nomiate a record number of women candidates for mayor/county magistrate seats.  

The KMT already nominated

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  Lu(盧秀燕) - Currently a MP


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) Lin(林姿妙) - Currently head of a large township


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) Wang(王惠美) - Currently a MP


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) Chang(張麗善) - Currently a MP,sister of head of Chang faction


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) Huang(黃敏惠) - ex-mayor running for old seat


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) Rao(饒慶鈴) - speaker of County assembly


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) Shu(徐榛蔚) - MP and wife of incumbent


And there is up to 3 more.

In Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) KMT will either nominate Huang(黃秀霜) with a long career in education

Or back a pro-KMT independent Chen(陳子敬) who has a long career in the police

In Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) KMT will either nominate Yang(楊麗環) (ex-MP)

or Chen (陳學聖) who is a current MP

In Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) KMT will either draft Wang(王育敏) - currently a MP

Or perhaps back possible DPP rebel Chang(張明達) in case he loses the DPP primary.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2018, 09:06:11 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2018, 10:51:15 AM by jaichind »

TVBS does annual and sometimes semi-annual survey by county/city on mayor/county magistrate approval ratings.  It also polls on party ID.  I used that data from Dec 2016, Jul 2016, Dec 2017 surveys to construct a pan-Green vs pan-Blue balance vs the 2016 Prez results.

Table is in terms of Pan-Green lead over Pan-Blue

                            2016         2016         2017          2017         Pan Green shift
                           election       Dec           July           Dec          2016->Dec 2017
Taidong County       -23%        -14%        NA             -25%             -2%
Hualian County       -20%        -20%        NA             -29%             -9%
Yilan County            24%          8%         NA               NA               NA        
Keelong City             -4%        -3%         NA             -11%              -7%
Taipei City                 4%          0%        -4%             -5%              -9%
New Taipei City        10%          1%         3%             -1%             -11%
Taoyuan City             2%          3%         -2%            -2%              -4%
Hsintsu City              2%          2%         NA              -5%              -7%
Hsintsu County        -15%      -22%        NA             -26%             -11%
Miaoli County           -9%       -13%        NA             -18%              -9%
Taichung City           10%          2%         2%             -1%             -11%  
Changhua County     13%         4%        NA               -2%             -15%
Nantou County          4%         -4%        NA              -10%            -14%
Penghu County         2%           1%         NA               -8%            -10%
Yunlin County          27%          6%        NA               10%             -17%
Jiayi City                 20%          8%        NA                 2%            -18%
Jiayi County             30%        18%       NA               10%             -20%
Tainan City              35%         18%       NA                NA                NA
Kaoshiung City         27%         16%      18%             14%             -13%
Pingdong County      27%         17%       NA                7%              -20%
Jinmen County        -64%        -55%      NA              -57%              +7%

No Dec 2017 data for Tainan City and Yilan County since both DPP incumbents were drafted into the cabinet but I suspect Dec 2017 numbers will look similar to Dec 2016 numbers with prehaps it is a bit worse for the Pan-Greens.

In Blue areas the net loss for Pan-Green margin are around 9% with, as I pointed out before, the net Pan-Green loss in Taoyuan City, Hsintsu City, and Keelong City being smaller due to popular DPP incumbents.  As I have warned about the net Green loss in Taoyuan City is only 4% from the 2016 Tsai landslide has to be ominous for the KMT as the DPP mayor is doing an effective job shifting the lean of the city.

In Green areas the net loss for Pan-Green margins are more around 17%.  I suspect the net loss will be a less than that as some polled neutral voters are really pan-Green voters even though when I modeled I took that into account.

In marginal areas the net loss for Pan-Green margins are around 11%.

I think net net this means the loss of Pan-Green margins overall will be around 12% and since in 2016 the Pan-Greens won 56/44 that gives us a 50/50 Blue/Green balance today which is what I roughed guess where we are.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: February 18, 2018, 09:06:51 AM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 10:11:44 AM by jaichind »

Looking ahead to 2020 Legislative elections, one can use the same PVI logic on ROC districts to see what would be generic results of the ROC legislative races given a particular Blue-Green lean.  ROC Legislature is made up of 73 FPTP seats, 6 Aborigine seats, and 34 PR seats.  Overall the 73 FPTP seats are fairly symmetrical in terms of seat distribution given a particular lean.  The 6 Aborigine seats lean heavily toward Blue camp while the 34 PR seats lean toward the Green camp since the NP has a floor of 3% but is unlikely to cross the 5% threshold while other smaller Pan-Green either are tiny or, like NPP, will pass the 5% threshold for sure.

I look at the Blue+8 Blue+6 Blue+4 Blue+2 Even Green+2 Green+4 Green+6 Green+8 scenarios.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
Blue+8         58        15        6            0            20     14        84    29
Blue+6         56        17        6            0            19     15        81    32
Blue+4         50        23        6            0            18     16        74    39
Blue+2         43        30        6            0            17     17        66    47
Even            36        37        5            1            16     18        57    56
Green+2      29        44        5            1            16     18        50    63
Green+4      24        49        5            1            15     19        44    69
Green+6      17        56        5            1            14     20        36    77
Green+8      16        57        4            2            13     21        33    80

If we look at the 2008 2012 2016 results (2008 was the first year ROC had this FPTP system versus multi-member districts)

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2008            60        13        6            0            20     14        86    27     Blue+8 election
2012            46        27        6            0            18     16        70    43     Blue+4.5 election
2016            20        53        5            1            14     20        39    74     Green+6.5 election

Which matches the chart above fairly well.

For 2020 I think the most likely scenario right now is a narrow Tsai re-election with a Green+1 election and a very narrow Pan-Green legislative majority.  In such a case the DPP regime will need the support of Pan-Green "ally" NPP to pass laws.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2020           33        40        5            1            16     18        54    59     Green+1 election
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #36 on: February 18, 2018, 11:21:14 AM »

What's the "Green Aborigine" area? I thought the Taiwan Aborigines were rock-solid KMT voters.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #37 on: February 18, 2018, 04:33:02 PM »

What's the "Green Aborigine" area? I thought the Taiwan Aborigines were rock-solid KMT voters.

Why is that, btw?
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: February 18, 2018, 05:40:18 PM »

What's the "Green Aborigine" area? I thought the Taiwan Aborigines were rock-solid KMT voters.

The 6 Aborigine seats are divided up into 2 3- multi-member seats (3 for Plains Tribal and 3 for Mountain Tribal.)  For the DPP to win a seat in either one their vote share has to go up to around 18% or higher which is possible to likely for Plains Tribal constituency in an even environment and possible to likely for Mountain Tribal constituency in a Green+8 constituency.

Most Aborigines are concentrated in Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) and Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20.  There are some Han-ized Aborigines in urban areas that still identify as Aborigines mostly to get various affirmative action goodies (there are bonus points for Taiwan Aborigines in various entrance exams of all kinds (and for Tibetans and Mongolians but there are not that many of them on ROC controlled territories these days.)  And yes, there is no real pro-Green Aborigine area.

Growing up in Greater Taipei I really did not know any  Aborigines although my nanny during ages of  2-5 was an Aborigine and I have some vague memories of her.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2018, 08:22:05 AM »

Ah, got it. Didn’t realize these were multi-member constituencies. Thought it was more like MMP.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2018, 08:28:04 AM »

What's the "Green Aborigine" area? I thought the Taiwan Aborigines were rock-solid KMT voters.

Why is that, btw?

To my understanding, patronage networks, mainly. Plus there is some history of anti-Aborigine racism by certain of the pro-independence Taiwanese.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2018, 11:36:19 AM »

What's the "Green Aborigine" area? I thought the Taiwan Aborigines were rock-solid KMT voters.

Why is that, btw?

To my understanding, patronage networks, mainly. Plus there is some history of anti-Aborigine racism by certain of the pro-independence Taiwanese.

Mostly this.  Although on the long run I think both factors will decline over the years and the Aborigine vote will trend Green.  The DPP Taiwan independence agenda is these days more about political and economic differences with the PRC vs Hoklo regionalism which has turned off Hakka Aborigine and Mainlander votes.  Tsai being Hakka herself is a good part of this.  The KMT counterattack has to be increase the salience of issues like Gay Marriage to split the DPP Northern Progressive branch and the socially conservative Southern rural DPP branch (and with it the Aborigines) whereas the KMT base overall is a lot less split on Gay Marriage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2018, 04:23:52 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 04:31:44 PM by jaichind »

Speaking of Gay marriage that is still the big hidden ticking time bomb issue that could come out and blow up the DPP.  While political cleavage is centered around the Unification-Independence debate the DPP is safe but if the salience of the Unification-Independence  debate were to decline then social issues like Gay marriage could create significant issues for the DPP and the Pan-Greens as a whole.  

The reason is shown in a chart drawn up by former DPP MP and now political commentator Sheng Fu-Shiung

The X axis is Conservative-Progressive axis with Progressive on the Right.  The Y axis is the unification-independence axis with independence at the top.  DPP core is to the Upper Left side of chart while NGO youth activist bloc is the Upper Right side of the chart.


The basic idea is the Green bubble is where the DPP MPs are at.  But the White Bubble on the Upper Left box is where the DPP core vote is.  The DPP activist base in Northern Taiwan is the small bubble on the Upper Right corner.  The Blue bubble is where the KMT MPs which also overlaps with the KMT vote base.

The problem is clear for the DPP.  Its core vote base Southern Taiwan are made up of Bubbas and Billy Bobs yet its activist based in the North are made up of Progressive activist youth and the DPP MPs somewhere in the middle.  While the KMT is all-powerful and political cleavage mostly about unification-independence the Pan-Green coalition can hold together.  But if political debate shifts to cultural issues like Gay Marriage DPP risk losing its Northern activist based to NPP and losing its socially conservative vote base in Southern Taiwan to the old KMT factional leaders who themselves are fairly socially conservative.  

It is clear for the reason Tsai (who personally clearly for Gay marriage) is petrified of the Gay Marriage issue and pretty much done everything possible to push it to the courts and trying to take it out of the political zone of debate.  

If the  Unification-Independence issue does loses salience (which seems unlikely for the next couple of years) I can see a realignment which actually reverse the previous large realignment of 1990-2004.  In the 1980s the KMT was dominant in the rural and low educated areas while the DPP was seen as a liberal-progressive urban force even as among economic elites the KMT still dominated.  As  the Unification-Independence issue gained salience this pattern reversed during the 1990-2004 where the KMT became much stronger in the cities which tended to benefit from economic integration with Mainland China while DPP became much stronger in rural areas where they tend to suffer from economic integration with Mainland China.  If the  Unification-Independence become less salient we might revert to a political pattern more like the 1980s.  To some extent the Tsai 2016 campaign which focused on her appeal to the urban progressive youth is already a step in that direction as her relative swings where much stronger in urban areas in 2016.  The next step is for the KMT to use Gay Marriage as a wedge issue to split the DPP coalition.
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2018, 10:09:12 PM »

Latest poll on Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) DPP "primary"



Last few months it was clear that Huang(黃偉哲) who is a DPP MP was way ahead.


But now Chen(陳亭妃) who is a DPP MP herself has closed the gap.


Now this poll which Huang claims is a "fake poll" has Huang barely ahead of Chen 22.6 vs 22.2

Among DPP supporters Chen is ahead 31.7 vs Huang 26.3.  Among KMT supporters Huang leads Chen 27.3 vs 20.8.

It was clear a while ago that Huang was ahead so every other DPP candidates started to gang up on him.  It seems this poll shows that these attacks are having an effect although mostly to the benefit of Chen.

Huang is also famous because his own sister Huang Tse-Siang (黃智賢) is a famous pro-KMT and pro-unification commentator and political talk show host.  The Huang family has very strong pro-Green traditions but Huang's sister broke from her family to take a Deep Blue and sometimes pro-CCP position and is famous for her blistering attacks on Tsai and the DPP.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: March 03, 2018, 04:42:14 PM »

Recent developments.  In New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2), current Lieutenant mayor Ho (侯友宜) has thrown his hat into the ring for the KMT primary.  Ho has a police background and has cross-party appeal.


He will be up against former Taipei County (what New Taipei City used to be called) Magistrate (2005-2010) Zhou(周錫瑋) who is considered more mainstream KMT.


Ho is very popular within the KMT as well as with the generic public and is expected to win the KMT primary and then win the general election.  As long as Zhou does not split the KMT in the general election Ho is expected to win even if the DPP in desperation runs Su (蘇貞昌) who himself is also a former Taipei County Magistrate (1997-2005), a DPP Vice Presidential candidate, and a former DPP Chairman.


Su is a rival of Tsai within the DPP and it is not clear that Su would even want to run given his hostility toward Tsai as well as the risk that he will most likely lose to Ho.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: March 03, 2018, 04:47:47 PM »

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) it seems Su (蘇煥智) who is a former Tainan County magistrate (2001-2010) has withdrew his membership in the DPP to run as an independent.


I guess Su is figuring that in the end Tsai would be too chicken to run a candidate in Taipei City and that by running he could then potentially pick up the DPP vote and perhaps even win in a close 3 way race.  Of course if the DPP does run a candidate we will have the situation where Ho, Su and the DPP candidate will split the DPP vote and unless Ho (and perhaps also Su) can also capture a good part of the KMT vote it will be a KMT victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: March 03, 2018, 04:56:12 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2018, 04:59:44 PM by jaichind »

More bad news for the current DPP regime.

Over this last week on Taiwan Province ROC there has been a crisis of toilet paper shortage and panic buying.  It seems rumors came out that due to the surge of international paper prices that various toilet paper suppliers will be raising prices significantly soon.  The DPP regime Department of consumer protection (whose price control function should really just be abolished) bungled this by saying that there are no plans to allow retailers to raise prices until at least March and the level of price increases will be no more than 30%.  The message that prices will stay the same for now but will surge soon triggered consumer panic buying of toilet paper especially given the low trust in government institutions and current regime at this moment.  

I guess the good news is that over the next few weeks this will die down and for the DPP hopefully not a big issue in the elections in late 2018.






Which only helped ROC paper wholesalers  
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jaichind
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« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2018, 03:20:06 PM »

In Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP "primary" kicks off today where a series of polls will be done to determine if Chang (張明達) who is the proxy candidate of current DPP county magistrate Helen Chang (張花冠)


Ong (翁章梁) who is the proxy candidate of previous DPP count magistrate Chen (陳明文)


Chang (張明達) represents the pro-DPP Lin faction and has de facto support of various KMT Hunag faction leaders while Ong (翁章梁) more represents the DPP organization in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣).   Ong (翁章梁)  is considered slightly ahead but there has been persistent rumors that  the KMT back Chang (張明達)  and in case Chang (張明達)  loses might back him to run against Ong (翁章梁).

As soon as the primary kicked off it seems supports of both candidates have been complaining that they have been getting constant calls on their phones which clearly represents fake pollsters with the main target of taking up the phone line so the real pollster could not get through.   
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Simfan34
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« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2018, 07:58:24 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2018, 08:04:10 PM by Simfan34 »

With Tsai's ratings low with no clear way out and while the KMT has mostly closed the gap with the DPP but very little people are crediting KMT chairman Wu for it, the winner out of all this is former KMT Prez Ma a year and a half after leaving who was enemy number one for the Pan-Green bloc and abandoned by Deep Blue and Light Blue alike.  Now Ma's popularity is surging.  One way one can tell are the popularity of Ma Chinese New Year Decorations which are put up on the doors of households and are usually written words of good fortune. 

Historically the New Year Decorations written by the current ROC President are the most popular (kinds of like Gallup's poll of most admired Man is usually headed the sitting President.)   Last year Prez Ma's office gave out around 50K of such decorations.  This year given the massive demand for Ma Chinese New Year Decorations 250K has already been printed and sold out and another batch is several hundred thousand are now being frantically being printed.  The Tsai  Chinese New Year Decorations has printed 250K or so and that seems to be meeting demand.

One inevitably wonders if the ROC constitution allows for non-consecutive re-election. Or perhaps Eric Chu will give it another go. Interestingly he was a doctoral student of a colleague of my father's.

The problem is clear for the DPP.  Its core vote base Southern Taiwan are made up of Bubbas and Billy Bobs yet its activist based in the North are made up of Progressive activist youth and the DPP MPs somewhere in the middle.

One also wonders how this would be translated into Mandarin!
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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: March 06, 2018, 09:47:06 AM »

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP "primary" Ong (翁章梁) who is the proxy candidate of previous DPP county magistrate Chen (陳明文) beating  Chang (張明達) who is the proxy candidate of current DPP county magistrate Helen Chang (張花冠) 43%-35%.  It seems that Chang does not seem to accept this result stating cheating by the Ong camp.  Not clear what his next steps are which might including running as an independent potentially with KMT support or turn the election into a 3 way race.
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