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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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Author Topic: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24  (Read 31903 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #175 on: November 24, 2018, 09:10:24 am »

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) call for KMT.  KMT 41.1 DPP 39.6 KMT rebel 18.0.  Fits my narrative that in ROC elections rebels tends not to hurt the challenging party to lose a seat they should have won but will hurt the ruling party to lose a seat they should have won without the rebel.
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jaichind
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« Reply #176 on: November 24, 2018, 09:15:28 am »

Referendum mostly done.  The goal is to get backing of 25% of the voting population.

The 2 KMT backed initiatives against coal power are ahead 39.7% and 37.8% respectively.  The KMT backed initiative against Japanese products from 2011 nuclear diaster areas are ahead with 38.6%.
The 3 anti-gay marriage and gay sex education initiatives ahead 38.8% 35.8% 32.1% respectively.

The Pan-Green backed using Taiwan to enter Olympics at the edge of winning at 24.6%

The 2 pro-gay marriage and gay sex education got crushed at 16.8 and 175% respectively.

The KMT backed pro-nuclear power initiative ahead at 29.6% 
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jaichind
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« Reply #177 on: November 24, 2018, 09:51:27 am »

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) KMT back in the lead KMT 41.1 Ko 41.0  DPP 17.1

Based on outstanding votes I project Ko wins Ko 41.0 KMT 40.8 DPP 17.3.  I suspect this is headed toward recount.
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jaichind
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« Reply #178 on: November 24, 2018, 12:50:14 pm »

With almost all the votes in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) its at Ko 41.08% KMT 40.78% DPP 17.30%.

Based on what is left the final result is projected to be Ko 41.05% KMT 40.82% DPP 17.29%

With the threshold to recount as 0.3% this is headed to recount although chances are very low for KMT's Ding to make up the difference.
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jaichind
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« Reply #179 on: November 24, 2018, 03:00:46 pm »

 Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) done.  Ko 41.05 KMT 40.82 DPP 17.29.  This is headed toward recount 

KMT's Ding will most likely sue to claim a flawed election.  Because of the unrepresented nature of an election with 10 referendum items  the voting time was much longer and there were massive lives across the board including  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).  The law is that as long as the voter was in line to vote by the 4PM deadline he or she could vote. In  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) the lines were so long that some voters did not vote until 7pm or even 8pm.  But the rules also said counting could begin at 4pm.  So we had the situation in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where a large amount of voters were voting AFTER a good chunk of the results were being declared.  In a 3 way race this is very problematic and the basis of KMT Ding's likely lawsuit to rule the election null and void  It is clear if Ko lost or lost the recount he would do the same.  This is a complete mess there are already conspiracy theories in both Ko and Deep Blue camps about this was the doing of the DPP. . 
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jaichind
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« Reply #180 on: November 24, 2018, 03:29:41 pm »

Referendum result (For Yes to pass it has to win AND cross 25% of voting population)

1) Reduce coal power (really a KMT push toward nuclear power): Yes won 79.0%  and since Yes was 40.3% of the voting population this passes.

2) Block construction of new coal plants (really a KMT push for nuclear power): Yes won 76.4% and since Yes was 38.5% of the voting population this passes

3) Ban food products from areas of Japan affected by the 2011 nuclear disaster (really a KMT push to wreck DPP relationship with Japan): Yes won 77.7% since Yes was 39.4% of the voting population this passes

4) Marriage law should state that marriage is between a Man and a Women (coalition of religious conservatives with tacit support of KMT): Yes won 72.5% and since Yes was 38.8% of voting population this passes

5) LGBT topics should not appear in sex education classes (coalition of religious conservatives with tactic support of KMT): Yes won 67.4% and since Yes was 35.9% of voting population it passes

6) If gay partnerships has to be protected by law then let there be a separate law outside the Marriage Law to allowed for this (coalition of religious conservatives wanting to create a "Separate and Unequal"  law for gay marriage): Yes won 61.1% and since Yes was 32.4% of voting population this passes

7) Let toe ROC Olympic team be named "Taiwan" vs "Chinese Taeipei" (pushed by Pan-Green activists as a proxy vote for Taiwan Independence): Yes won 45.2% and is defeated.

Cool Let the marriage law be changed to allow for Gay marriage (pushed by LGBT activists): Yes won 32.7% and is defeated.

9) Let LGBT lifestyles be part of school sex ed classes (pushed by LGBT activists): Yes won 34.0% and is defeated.

10) Allow for greater growth of nuclear power as a part of a transition to green energy (pushed by nuclear power camp with tacit support by KMT): Yes won 59.5% and  since Yes was 29.4% of the voting population this passes.


Main takeaways:
1) Everything the KMT is for explicitly or tacitly passed and everything the KMT is opposed explicitly or tactility was defeated.
2) We had the first every de facto proxy vote for Taiwan Independence and it went down to defeat even though it was worded and structured in the most "safe" way.  Long Live ROC !! Long Live Chinese Reunification !! 
3) The anti-gay marriage grand coalition was awesome to behold.  It included various Buddhist, Taoist, Chinese traditionalist, Catholic, Presbyterian and Islamic and cross both Blue and Green political coalitions.    It was a massive gang up of everyone vs urban middle class progressives and the progressives got smashed. A great example of how to form a grand coalition.
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Hydera
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« Reply #181 on: November 24, 2018, 03:39:11 pm »


3) The anti-gay marriage grand coalition was awesome to behold.  It included various Buddhist, Taoist, Chinese traditionalist, Catholic, Presbyterian and Islamic and cross both Blue and Green political coalitions.    It was a massive gang up of everyone vs urban middle class progressives and the progressives got smashed. A great example of how to form a grand coalition.


Not surprising, theres a let and let live attitude ONLY because parents know they cant do anything about their LGBT kids that move out. But society was always not as accepting as it seems especially since its in Asia where old people still have this "natalist" belief about their kids giving them grandkids. Also globally people tend to underestimate how much of the working class is homophobic considering from the results, higher income places still voted No but not as large of a margin in rural and working class districts in Taiwan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #182 on: November 24, 2018, 03:42:22 pm »

Looking down ballot at the city and county assembly elections it seems that the DPP did not do that badly in urban areas.  It was expected that in urban areas the DPP would do poorly due to the swing against the DPP plus NPP running to split the DPP vote.  It turned out that why the defeats were bad they were not much worse what was feared by the DPP.  It was in rural areas where the DPP did not expect a large swing that the DPP crackup took place.  Part of it was the DPP was ambushed since they over-nominated candidates but part of it was just a large swing of vote against DPP in rural areas.

If you look at the mayoral and county magistrate elections the KMT clearly over-performed in rural areas aside from a couple of places where the local KMT faction decided to back DPP rebels and performed "Meh" in urban areas.  I think this is part of a greater trend away from what I call "Party System of 2000"

In the 1980s and 1990s the KMT was strong in rural areas and DPP stronger with urban middle class.  The rise of PRC low tech industry posed a threat ROC rural industry while urban ROC saw that its high tech service oriented economy could be a strong partner with PRC.  As a result in the 1990s there was a realignment with urban areas drifting KMT and rural areas drifting DPP culminating in the election of 2000 where was was cemented.   In 2008 with KMT's Ma coming to power he accelerated this trend by trying to turn the KMT into a pure urban middle class liberal party by throwing aside the rural KMT local factions.  During this period PRC's economy moved quickly upstream and became a competitive threat to the ROC urban economic sectors as well.  After 2012 DPP's Tsai was able to capture urban progress youth  and bank the DPP gains in rural areas to gain smashing victories in 2014 and 2016.  But now post 2016 with Ma out of the way and fall of agriculture prices meaning the PRC market for ROC agriculture product more decisive the rural vote is shifting back toward the KMT.  Another key factor is the gay marriage topic which drove a wedge between the DPP rural base and its new urban progressive supporters. It seems the "Party System of 2000" is slowing being reversed. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #183 on: November 24, 2018, 03:45:23 pm »

Mayor and County magistrate election results


Mayor and County magistrate election results at the township level


Change from 2014
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jaichind
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« Reply #184 on: November 24, 2018, 04:13:36 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2018, 04:49:45 pm by jaichind »

The Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) first district results is an extreme example of the DPP meltdown in rural county assembly elections as a part of a swing AND over-nomination.    22 candidates fighting for 13 spots

Ind(KMT)     15.1% elected
KMT            12.9% elected
KMT            10.1% elected
DPP              8.7% elected
KMT             8.0% elected
KMT             8.0% elected
NPP              6.7% elected
KMT             5.9% elected
Ind(KMT)      5.8% elected
DPP rebel      5.6% elected
DPP              5.3% elected
Ind(KMT)      5.1% elected
Ind(KMT)      4.7% elected
DPP rebel      4.4%
DPP              4.2%
DPP              3.8%
DPP              3.8%
DPP              3.3%
Ind(TSU)       2.3%
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« Reply #185 on: November 24, 2018, 04:21:51 pm »

Referendum result (For Yes to pass it has to win AND cross 25% of voting population)


Cool Let the marriage law be changed to allow for Gay marriage (pushed by LGBT activists): Yes won 32.7% and is defeated.


3) The anti-gay marriage grand coalition was awesome to behold.  It included various Buddhist, Taoist, Chinese traditionalist, Catholic, Presbyterian and Islamic and cross both Blue and Green political coalitions.    It was a massive gang up of everyone vs urban middle class progressives and the progressives got smashed. A great example of how to form a grand coalition.



Rather than say something that might get me kicked off the board, all I can say is that I'll never understand the kind of person that takes that kind of joy in other people's heartbreak. 

Then again, I'm sure in November 2008 plenty of "Yes on 8" types were no doubt congratulating themselves on the "awesomeness" of THEIR grand coalition too...
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jaichind
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« Reply #186 on: November 24, 2018, 04:51:28 pm »

I think going forward DPP will need to renew its alliance with Ko to stop KMT in 2020.  Not sure Ko's supporters would be ok with this. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #187 on: November 24, 2018, 04:55:42 pm »

ROC cabinet begins process to pass a gay marriage law as per Supreme Court ruling last year.  Not clear will it be to amend the Marriage Law or a "separate and unequal" law that the referendum clearly indicated.  One way or another the DPP will be trapped between its Northern progressive wing and its Southern conservative base.
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jaichind
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« Reply #188 on: November 25, 2018, 06:21:40 pm »

The election night was a disaster for the ROC election comission especially in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  where KMT's Ding narrowly lost to Ko.  It seems that there were massive delays and lines in voting especially in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  where voters were voting up until 7pm even though polls closed at 4pm and counting started. 

Turnout in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) ended up being 65% vs 70% back in 2014 even though turnout in  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) surged.  It is clear that turnout was suppressed by the long lines.  The Ding camp claims foul that the long lines deterred their elderly  base from psychically being in a line for 3-4 hours.  The Ko camp claims that its youth base lack patience and did not turn out.  Of course the worst is possible and likely  DPP Yao->Ko tactical voting by DPP voters as they watched the election returns on their mobile phones at 5pm 6pm or even 7pm which showed Yao way behind.  The ballot boxes which were counted the latest clearly had Yao with lower level of support even though the Ko camp could also claim that some of them were Yao->Ding tactical voting.

All this is made worse by the facts that: Most media outfits make up vote totals from 4pm-7pm in their broadcast.  You heard it right.  Most of the vote count numbers are mostly made up based on very low level of sample counts from key precincts.   This history of why this is the case stem from an earlier era in the 1980s and early 1990s when the KMT had a huge party worker organization which fed live count numbers to KMT headquarters which is a lot further ahead than the official election commission numbers.   The KMT then feed these numbers to KMT owned CTV which had a huge edge in TV viewership election night.  Rival TV channels to compete pretty much took what they saw on CTV and added numbers on top of that to fit their own gut feeling on how the race will go and as the election commission numbers caught up converged their guesses to the official numbers by around 7pm-8pm.  These TV channels also bias their "projected" votes to fit the needs of their viewers.  Pro-Green TV channels would push up the DPP vote total during the 4pm-7pm period to keep their Green supporters engaged a eyeballs on their channel.  Same with pr-Blue TV channels.  In 2004 in fact there was a fiasco where many channels had their numbers overrun to final vote count and had to have their vote count GO DOWN.

So we have the issue of voters being influenced by real vote count totals which are not even the real vote counts but what the said TV channel THINKS the vote count should be during the 4pm-7pm period.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #189 on: November 25, 2018, 08:51:10 pm »
« Edited: November 25, 2018, 10:04:51 pm by jaichind »

Depite talk of a massive KMT victory in the 2018 local elections the Pan-Blue vs Pan-Green vote share victory was much more muted.  I did my Blue vs Green vote share count and came up with (I also have the numbers for the 1993/4 1997/8 2001/2 2005/6 2009/10 2014 number as well)

                   Blues        Greens
1993/4       55.94%      43.72%
1997/8       52.32%      47.13% (deceptive, massive number of KMT rebels in a DPP landslide year)
2001/2       52.87%      46.74%
2005/6       54.83%      44.56%
2009/10     51.23%      48.60%
2014          42.91%      56.47%
2018          51.77%      47.57%

You can argue that the Pan-Green vote share of 47.57% is deceptive since Pan-Green rebels in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10), and Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) over-performed and clearly pulled in Pan-Blue votes.  On the other hand KMT rebels in Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14), Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) over-performed and clearly pulled in Pan-Green votes.  It is true that in absolute terms  the impact of Ko in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is much larger.

It is true that KMT reached unprecedented levels of support in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) but the results for the KMT in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is very problematic as this is the second election in the role that the Pan-Blue camp was reduced to the low 40s in terms of vote share.  Ko is eroding the once massive Pan-Blue lead in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).   Also Pan-Greens reached unprecedented levels of support in Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) and nearly matched their unprecedented levels of support in Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8).

All things equal the Pan-Blue/KMT performance looks more like 2001/2 and 2009/2010 than its 2005/6 landslide victory.  The shock of DPP loses in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) tends to take attention away from true DPP over-performance in Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) and Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8).

To some extent the large number of Pan-Green rebels in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) actually prevented a larger KMT surge there, It is clear that the DPP is wearing out its welcome in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) but did not trust KMT yet.  The Pan-Green rebel over-performance in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) were clearly a way to show that desire.
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jaichind
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« Reply #190 on: November 26, 2018, 01:34:53 am »

Another comical DPP over-nomination example for county assembly.  This is also in Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) but firth district.    8 candidates fighting for 5 spots

KMT           17.5% elected
KMT           17.0% elected
Ind(KMT)    15.0% elected
KMT           12.8% elected
Ind(PFP)     10.8% elected
DPP           10.4%
DPP           10.0%
DPP             6.7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #191 on: November 26, 2018, 08:39:08 am »

2018 was also the year of the KMT women.  The KMT nominated 7 women candidates out of the 22 mayor/county magistrate races.    1 was lean DPP, 3 were tossups, 2 was lean KMT, 1 was solid KMT.  All 7 won.  Two of them benefited from a key relative being arrested a couple of months before the election.  In Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), KMT's Chang's brother was the KMT county magistrate back in 1997-2005. He was arrested a couple of month for corruption.  The sympathy factor plus the rural anti-DPP pushed her to an unexpected victory.    In Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) KMT's Hsu had her husband and current county magistrate was arrested a couple of month before the election.  She was sure to win but the arrested created a sympathy wave which pushed her to a massive 71.5% to 25.9% victory over the DPP.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #192 on: November 26, 2018, 09:01:28 am »

Great updates, thanks!
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jaichind
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« Reply #193 on: November 26, 2018, 09:32:26 am »

Referendum result (For Yes to pass it has to win AND cross 25% of voting population)


Cool Let the marriage law be changed to allow for Gay marriage (pushed by LGBT activists): Yes won 32.7% and is defeated.


3) The anti-gay marriage grand coalition was awesome to behold.  It included various Buddhist, Taoist, Chinese traditionalist, Catholic, Presbyterian and Islamic and cross both Blue and Green political coalitions.    It was a massive gang up of everyone vs urban middle class progressives and the progressives got smashed. A great example of how to form a grand coalition.



Rather than say something that might get me kicked off the board, all I can say is that I'll never understand the kind of person that takes that kind of joy in other people's heartbreak. 

Then again, I'm sure in November 2008 plenty of "Yes on 8" types were no doubt congratulating themselves on the "awesomeness" of THEIR grand coalition too...

Just to be clear. I actually back gay marriage.  I think the anti-gay marriage crowd got it all wrong.  They should focus on the right of free association in social and economic spheres so the mainstream majority, if it choose to, can socially ostracizes the gay lifestyle they so much oppose.

I back the ROC anti-marriage campaign even if I were given the vote I would vote for gay marriage because it is a useful tool to create a wedge between the DPP progressive Northern urban bridgehead and the DPP Southern Conservative core.  While I am very hostile to Mao I do buy into some parts of Mao Zedong Thought: "We should support whatever the enemy opposes and oppose whatever the enemy supports.  - Mao 1939"
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jaichind
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« Reply #194 on: November 26, 2018, 09:37:45 am »

This talk of KMT year of the women made me realize one thing.  5 out of the 7 women KMT winners were flips of a DPP seat.  Han's Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  and island county Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) were the only male KMT flips.

In fact it seem what the KMT should have done is to nominate an all women slate plus Han.  Given of these trends they could have won a 22-0 sweep if they did that Smiley

Given the gender gap in favor of the Right/KMT on ROC I would be fine for election laws to be changed on ROC so only women had the vote.

I am on a business trip to Tokyo and HK this week  But next couple of weeks when I get back to USA I plan to do more in depth analysis on how the city/county assembly vote swings went.   I want to verify my theory that the KMT surge was focused on rural areas and wanted to see if I can get better statistical evidence for that by looking at the city/county assembly results.
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« Reply #195 on: November 26, 2018, 01:04:25 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2018, 02:39:39 pm by Hydera »

I looked at the results for Case 14 and as expected theres zero precints that voted Yes.

http://referendum.2018.nat.gov.tw



Taipei City - 38%
New Taipei City - 34.9%
Hsinchu City - 34.2%
Keelung City - 33.9%
Yilan County - 33.1%
Tainan City - 33%
Kaohsiung City - 32.5%
Chiayi City - 32.1%
Taoyuan City - 31.8%
Taichung City - 31.2%
Pingtung County - 30.6%
Hsinchu county -30.4%
Yunlin county - 29.7%
Chiayi County  - 29.6%
Changhua County - 29%
Penghu county - 28.9%
Miaoli county - 28%
Nantou County - 27%
Hualien County - 26.4%
Taitung County - 25.8%
Lienchang county - 25.4%
Kinmen County - 24.3%

Within Taipei.


Neihu District - 39.1%
Datong District - 38.9%
Zhongshan District - 38.6%
Shilin District - 38.1%
Da’an District - 37.8%
Beitou District - 37.7%
Songshan District - 37.5%
Nangang District - 37.5%
Wanhua District - 37.2%
Xinyi District - 36.7%
Zhongzheng District - 36.1%
Wenshan District - 36.1%



https://web.cw.com.tw/election2018/electorate/index.html?county=63000

Using this map the reason for Neihu being higher(despite it still being pretty low...) is the higher number of young voters there.



Only three districts in Taipei were the vote against marriage being one male and one female reached 40%.

Dahuli, Neihu 40.9%  (In the referendum to allow same sex marriage it was 43.2%, god bless those inconsistent 2.3% of voters)
Zhongyuanli, Zhongshan District 41.3%
Tianshouli, Shilin District 40.1%


Then in the vote to allow same sex marriage there were a few ironic districts that voted Yes to Marriage being one man and one woman AND at the same time to allow same sex marriage


Bojiali, Wenshan 65.3% to first / 45.3%

Considering Bojiali also has a higher number of elderly voters it could just be a lot of elderly voters either voted Yes to everything because they didnt like referendums OR didnt read clearly the one to allow same sex marriage.
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« Reply #196 on: November 26, 2018, 02:47:52 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2018, 02:54:01 pm by Hydera »

In Keelung there was ONE district that voted against marriage being between one man and one woman.

Zhongxingli, Zhongshan, Keelung 50.2% disagree Yet voting only 33.8% to allow same sex marriage.

Zhongshali, Zhongzheng voted 71.9% FOR marriage being one man and one woman AND 54% to allow same sex marriage.

Theres a few more where this ironically happened.

Renaili, Zhongli, Taoyuan. Agree 50.6% to same sex marriage. 72% agree to marriage being one man and one woman.



Given that in more dense areas like in Taichung where the city areas had less support for marriage being one man and one woman AND at the same time voting in low numbers against a proposal to allow gay marriage while a handful of rural areas voted Yes on both questions it does seem to be a few districts were people just grossed over and voted yes to every question including Case 14 than an actual stance of support for gay marriage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #197 on: November 26, 2018, 04:09:16 pm »

Post election Chinatimes poll "Which politician do you back from the Green and Blue camps respectively?"

Green camp: PM Lai 19.5% Taoyuan  mayor Cheng 18.0% Tainan mayor election Huang 5.7% DPP Prez Tsai 4.2%

Blue camp: Kaoshiung mayor election Han 30.5% Outgoing New Taipei City mayor and 2016 KMT candidate Chu 13.9% KMT ex-Prez Ma 10.5% KMT Chairman and ex-Vice Prez Wu 1.0%

All the media outfits are claiming that the DPP have no chance in 2020 and that most likely Tsai would not run.  I disagree with that.  I agree if DPP swap out Tsai then they are agreeing with the KMT narrative of a failed presidency and for sure will lose.  I think Tsai will still run for re-election and given a protracted primary will destroy her chances unless Lai can launch a palace coup very quickly to take over Tsai is more likely than not to still get the DPP nomination.  If Tsai runs in 2020 I think she has a 35/65 shot at winning, especially if the KMT primary is protracted or if KMT nominates Wu.  She can still run on an anti-unification platform and I think that sort of campaign could still have legs.  In fact KMT losing Taipei City could be a blessing a disguise.  With a strong pro-unification Ding as KMT mayor of Tapei City creates a convenient foil for the DPP.

On the KMT side realistically it is a Chu vs Wu race.  Ex PM Chang would jump in as a dark house but Chang is not  member of the KMT.  Chang might get the nod if it seems KMT have low chances of winning in 2020.  But under the current circumstances     Wu can claim that he deserves a shot at the nomination given his management of the successful 2018 campaign.  On the other hand Chu is just much more popular than Wu and is more likely to get the KMT nomination even if Wu is still in the running.
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jaichind
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« Reply #198 on: November 27, 2018, 03:58:28 am »

In Keelung there was ONE district that voted against marriage being between one man and one woman.

Zhongxingli, Zhongshan, Keelung 50.2% disagree Yet voting only 33.8% to allow same sex marriage.

Zhongshali, Zhongzheng voted 71.9% FOR marriage being one man and one woman AND 54% to allow same sex marriage.

Theres a few more where this ironically happened.

Renaili, Zhongli, Taoyuan. Agree 50.6% to same sex marriage. 72% agree to marriage being one man and one woman.



Given that in more dense areas like in Taichung where the city areas had less support for marriage being one man and one woman AND at the same time voting in low numbers against a proposal to allow gay marriage while a handful of rural areas voted Yes on both questions it does seem to be a few districts were people just grossed over and voted yes to every question including Case 14 than an actual stance of support for gay marriage.


Understand that another election commission mess up was that they insisted on rewording the referendum items to be so filled with legalese that for many voters it was impossible to figure out which in term lead to very long voting times as they tried to read and re-read the description and led to plenty of inconsistent voting behavior. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #199 on: November 27, 2018, 05:01:23 am »

The referendum results for using Taiwan instead of Chinese Taipei for ROC Olympic team by city/county mostly matches Blue/Green PVI

Total                                                         45.20%
--------------------------------------------------------------
Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41)    21.13%
Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41)        23.15%
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)        35.81%
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)       37.84%
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)       37.00%
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)          38.84%
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)             43.20%
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)                43.94%
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)             41.51%
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)               41.88%
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)           41.58%
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)             41.54%
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)        45.03%
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)            43.28%
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)     45.09%
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)                  49.25%
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)            50.41%
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)         48.62%
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)           48.09%
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)            50.46%
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)            51.59%
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)            52.73%

Being in the North seems to give the KMT a slight boost relative the Unification-Independence lean.  Given the Independence vote lean Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) should have a Green lean of +8 and not +6 but being in the North lead to more relative votes for KMT.  Same for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) where given its Independence  vote lean it should be Green+1 but instead it is Blue +2.  Being in the North helps the KMT vote there as well.
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