2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[jaichind]

This blog

https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/p/election.html

which seems to fancy itself as a ROC 538 has a running prediction model based on poll aggregation, fundamental information, prediction markets, and google search.  There model seems to focus less on fundamental data than I would.  Also they often leave out key third party candidate in their vote share projections.  One thing I live about 538 is that they really try to take into account of minor candidates.  Anyway what they have is:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
Ko           48%     (In theory pro-Green)
KMT        39%
DPP         14%
This projection seems to overweight non-Blue polls that has Ko 10% ahead and does not take into account of a minor KMT rebel which I have to assume takes votes away from the KMT candidate.  My projection which is more KMT friendly focuses more on fundamentals.
 

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%
Very close to my projection and mostly matches CW.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         43%
I assume the remaining 4% goes to the KMT rebel.  Mostly matches CW.  My projection is more based on fundamentals and more KMT friendly.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%
Matches most CW and my projection.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP               49%
KMT               34%
pro-KMT ind.  13%
I guess the remaining 4% goes to remaining DPP and TSU rebels.  This projection seems to high for the pro-KMT ind. and too low for the various DPP and TSU rebels.  But we will see.
 

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         52%
DPP          48%
This projection leaves out the PFP rebel and ex-NP candidate which most likely will pull in support from the KMT vote.  But overall matches my projection.


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%
Matches my projection exactly which is a more fundamental based projection. 


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           55%
DPP            44%
This leaves out a KMT rebel which I guess will pull in from KMT candidate.  Mostly matches CW and my projection.


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
MKT           44%
KMT           40%
DPP           16%
This projection double downs the DPP collapse while my projection has DPP base still voting for DPP in large numbers.  In the DPP collapse scenario MKT will benefit more and then win. 


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            51%
KMT           38%
I guess the other 11% will go to pro-Ko Pro-Green independent.  Overall this is more negative for the KMT than fundamentals would suggest but this projection is more poll focused on this one. 


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             65%
pro-DPP Ind  35%
This projection is leaving out KMT and DPP rebels which I guess will take some  support from KMT and DPP separately. 


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             52%
DPP             48%
This projection missed the TSU rebel pro-Ko candidate which I suspect will win as much as 4%.  I guess that will come out of the DPP vote share which would make this race a bigger KMT win that most, including me, would expect given fundamentals. 


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             58%
DPP              42%
Sounds about right and matches CW although more pro-KMT than my projection.


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              54%
KMT              46%
This projection is missing a DPP rebel which will come out of the DPP vote share.  Sort of matches my projection that this race will be a lot closer than CW projections of a easy DPP win.


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              58%
KMT             42%
This projection leaves out a very significant DPP rebel (he is the current DPP vice magistrate and has de facto support of the DPP incumbent.)  If  this DPP rebel vote share of comes out of the DPP vote share then this projection would match my projection.


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             40%
DPP             39%
KMT rebel     21%
This projection is much more positive on the KMT rebel than my projection.  Of course my projection is the same, narrow KMT victory.


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             60%
KMT            40%
Matches CW.  I think the KMT will be a lot closer.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            56%
DPP             44%
This projection leaves out a key KMT rebel (who is the wife of an previous KMT county magistrate and was a county magistrate herself.)   If you take her vote share out of the KMT projection then this would match my projection pretty well.


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            69%
DPP             31%
Mostly matches CW, somewhat more positive on KMT then myself. 


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            54%
DPP             46%
Does not take into account a couple KMT rebels.  If we take those vote share for KMT rebels from the KMT candidate then this will match my projection.


So overall this blog projection mostly matches my.   Only real difference is Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where I focus on fundamentals with the large KMT base and this blog double downs on non-Blue polls showing Ko with a 10% vote share lead.

[jaichind]

Poll blackout already kicked in.  Last polls to come out are final TVBS for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
           Support       Projection
Ko        39(-1)           46
KMT     36(+3)          40
DPP      12(--)           13

So TVBS see KMT closing the gap but has Pan-Green tactical voting for Ko to bring him victory.



Final Chinatimes poll for Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has it at
KMT       42.5 (-1.0)
DPP        38.9 (+2.7)
with DPP candiadate gaining ground on a good debate performance.


Pro-Green Apple Daily which is a tier two pollster final polls for the 6 special municipalities are
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KO         34.1
KMT       31.4
DPP         7.1
 
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT       36.4 
DPP       30.7
 
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP       36.9
KMT       26.8
 
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT      34.4
DPP       32.0
 
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP               25.6
KMT              21.1
pro-KMT indy  6.5
DPP rebel       2.8
TSU rebel       1.9
DPP rebel       1.4
 
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT           35.4
DPP            32.6

[jaichind]

On election day 11/24 there will also be a bunch of referendums some of which now has a realistic chance of passing.  The old standard was that over 50% of registered voters have to vote for a proposal.   Now a simple majority plus total vote greater than 25% of registered voters is necessary.  There high profile ones are

1) Pan-Green/DPP proposal: <The ROC team which participates in the Olympics be renamed from "Chinese Taipei" to "Taiwan.">  Polls indicate Yes 67% No 24%.  Main problem here is if it passes this sets up the ROC government on a collision course with IOC which stipulated that ROC can only participate under "Chinese Taipei" and not "Taiwan"  The Pan-Green forces want to use this referendum as a way to sooth its pro-independence base with some red meat showing that there is "progress" on independence.  This will clearly pass but IOC saying that ROC cannot participate in Olympics will force the DPP regime and its supporters face the basic international reality of PRC power.

2) Pan-Blue/KMT proposal: <All products from Japan from prefectures affected by the 2011 nuclear accident (which is mostly Fukushima prefecture> are banned from being imported to ROC>  Polls indicate Yes 61 No 28.  This is a KMT scheme to undermine DPP regime's attempt us ally with Japan to counter PRC's power.  The DPP wants Japan's help to deal with PRC and one of Japan's conditions is that the ROC lift its ban on Japanese food products from Fukushima and other ares affected by the 2011 nuclear crisis.  The KMT knows this is not popular and want to hammer corner DPP on this issue.  This one will most likely pass as well.

3) Religious conservative/traditionalist proposal: <ROC marriages law should explicitly state that marriage is between a man and a women>.  Polls indicate Yes 67 No 17.  A grand alliance of various religious organizations which includes the usually deep Green Presbyterian Church and various pro-KMT Buddhist/Taoist organizations seems on track to pass this anti-Gay marriage measure by a wide margin.  KMT tactically support this as a way to splinter the DPP alliance of Southern Taiwan conservatives and Northern Taiwan liberal progressive youth activists.

4) Possessive activist  pro-LBGT proposal: <ROC marriage laws to allow for Gay marriage>.  Polls indicate Yes 26 No 65.  This has the youth activist faction DPP as well as NPP support.  Will go down in defeat it seems.



A NPP poll asked which proposal people most support.  The Gay marriage issue clearly is the most polarizing.  26.7% most want to vote for the Anti-Gay marriage measure and 13.1% most want to vote for the Gay marriage measure.


Same NPP has
1) <The ROC team which participates in the Olympics be renamed from "Chinese Taipei" to "Taiwan."> Yes 66.7 No 23.9
2) <All products from Japan from prefectures affected by the 2011 nuclear accident (which is mostly Fukushima prefecture> are banned from being imported to ROC> Yes 60.7 No 23.9
3) <ROC marriages law should explicitly state that marriage is between a man and a women>.  Yes 71 No 17
4) <ROC marriage laws to allow for Gay marriage> Yes 25.6 No 65.0

[jaichind]

NPP poll of all of ROC

Party support
KMT        28.0
DPP        16.2
NPP         12.5
PFP           1.6
NP            0.3
Overestimates NPP and underestimates DPP, but this is a NPP poll after all.

Generic vote for Mayor/County magistrate
KMT       29.1
DPP       19.5
Ind         9.7 (mostly Ko and various rebels, perhaps even MKT)

Generic vote for City/County council
KMT       21.7
DPP        15.9
NPP          6.1
PFP          1.1
NP           0.3
Ind.         9.7 (mostly pan-Blue candidates running as independents)

[jaichind]

With polls showing a medium size anti-DPP wave, the DPP response has been to say they are behind because of
a) Fake News/Fake polls
b) PRC interventionism in favor of KMT

Sounds like a exact mapping of Dem claims of Russia collusion after 2016.  Maybe DPP can borrow Robert Mueller after the elections to investigate PRC intervention and collusion with the KMT in this election.  OF course what is wrong with this logic is the PRC was for the KMT in 2014 and 2016 as well and failed to stop a landslide defeat of the KMT in both elections.  I think the power of the PRC to affect ROC election is clearly overstated.     

[jaichind]

Pro-Green Taiwan Public Opinion Fund poll on party affiliation has KMT making a huge surge since Aug to 36.0 vs DPP at 23.5.  Back in May 2016 when Tsai took office it was DPP 49.3 KMT 16.6.  The Tsai regime has been an utter disaster for DPP party support.
  


Same poll also has a generic vote for Mayor/County magistrate
KMT     33.9
DPP     24.2
Ind.     14.9 (Ko and various rebels, could also include MKT)



The generic vote for City/County council
KMT       29.2
DPP        18.5
Minors      2.8
Ind.        19.5 (most of them will be various Pan-Blue candidates running as Ind.)

[jaichind]

The DPP rally cry is pretty much "Stop the PRC takeover via its KMT proxies"

The KMT rally cry is "1124 Destroy Eastern Depot".  Some context in Chinese history is needed to understand this rallying cry.  What took place in 2016 when DPP won power in all branches is they really sent after the KMT by creating a series of institutions to freeze KMT assets and also a "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" like South Africa to look into KMT excesses during the KMT authoritarian era of 1950-1987.   The KMT views these moves as just political vendetta.  Freezing KMT assets means that in 2018 is the first election ever that the DPP has a clear money advantage over KMT.   Then recently a leaked tape was released where  members of "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" said in a private meeting that they are just like the 東廠(Eastern Depot). The Eastern Depot was the feared secret police of the Late Ming dynasty that was absolutely loyal to the Imperial interests and ruthless in its tactics to suppress dissent (think KBG under Stalin.)   When this tape came out a couple of months ago it set of a firestorm as it seems to support the KMT narrative of the "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" as just another arm of the DPP.

So the KMT then came out with the rallying cry 1124滅東廠(1124 Destroy Eastern Depot) on a play on the Mid-Autumn Festival traditions in September.  The Mid-Autumn Festival is often call the Moon cake  Festival because back in the late Mongol based Yuan dynasty the an uprising was planned to be right after the Mid-Autumn Festival  and rebels gave out moon cakes to everyone as gifts  and embedded in the cake is a note "August 15th we will kill the Mongols" as a signal of when the date of the uprising will be.



The KMT ad and cry then took both the Moon Cake  Festival tradition and the common animus toward Eastern Depot into "1124 Destroy Eastern Depot" meaning on election day this DPP tyranny will be destroyed.

[jaichind]

In Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) it seems that even the DPP camp is admitting that DPP's Chen(陳其邁) is trouble.  First DPP City council candidates are replacing their posters which had their picture with Chen taken down and replaced with just their own picture.






Also the Chen campaign, seeing that DPP Prez Tsai is not popular even in DPP territory Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has pretty much cut Tsai out of all campaign rallies and events in the week before the election.

This race is reaching a crisis point of DPP.  For DPP to lose the combined city of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) would be like GOP losing TX or Dems losing NY or CA.

[jaichind]

The Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  continues to be unclear heading into the final week of the election.  The dynamics of a 3 way makes it extra uncertain and fun.
DPP's Yao realistically is now realistically looking for an honorable but third place finish.  His main theme is that both Ko and KNT's Ding are puppets of Beijing and to beat back a PRC takeover.  In other words Yao is looking to consolidate the core Deep Green vote.
Ko seems to be flipping back and forth between Blue and Green but recently having identified the KMT's Han for the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) seat as the the person that is helping the KMT win the social media war have mostly turned against the KMT since the KMT base seems to be consolidating around KMT's Ding and Ko's path to victory is DPP tactical voting for Ko.
Ding has been running on "A vote for Ko is a vote to reelection DPP Prez Tsai" claiming that Ko Yao, and  Tsai are all in the same league trying so scam their way to victory despite the fact that DPP is deeply unpopular in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).  Ding's slogan is trying to kill 3 birds with one stone.  It will provoke Light Blue voters to come home to Ding to vote against Tsai.  By attacking Tsai Ding hopes to provoke a Deep Green reaction to actually vote Yao.  By linking Ko to Tsai, Ding is hoping that anti-Tsai pro-Ko Pan-green youth voters which would not vote Ding anyway would be confused enough to then just not turnout.

The election result will most likely a Pan-Blue consolidation with Pan-Green partly holding up for Yao which would make it
KMT Ding  43
Ko            41
DPP Yao    15

to a complete collapse of Yao outside the most anti-Ko part of the DPP followed by a Pan-Blue counter-consolidation which would fall just short
Ko            46
KMT Ding  45
DPP Yao     8

Ding's job is to pain Ko as the Pan-Green candidate but make sure that the core Deep Green vote stay with Yao while Ko want to prevent this Pan-Blue consolidation but if he sees it taking place would then go all out to trigger anti-Ding tactical voting by the entire DPP bloc.

I can even see Tsai 2 days before the election coming out to call on all DPP voters to vote Ko once it is clear that Yao would be crushed and Tsai would be then blamed.  If she asked for DPP supporters to vote Ko she can at least then try to claim credit for a Ko victory over KMT's Ding.

[jaichind]

The election season I think the most creative (although it ended up backfiring) ad was DPP's

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE7yp30TTBw



Where it took a play on the word 黨(party) of 國民黨(KMT) to make it its homonym 擋(block) and accuse the KMT of blocking needed DPP reforms.  The song is quite catchy and I stiil sing it to myself from time to time.  Of course politically it was not effective as the KMT was not able to block any of the measure the ad talked about about and almost all of those measures are unpopular and part of the reason why the DPP is in trouble.  I guess this ad can rally Deep Green voters behind the DPP but actually drives away light green (including pro-Ko), independent and light blue voters.  So despite its creatively should be seen as a failure.  DPP mostly accepted it as much as they took down the ad after a few days of being mocked on the internet on for the ad.

[jaichind]

How many of the referenda do you think will pass?

25% of the voting population would have to vote for an initiate to pass.  Turnout will most likely be 60%-65%.  Of course you have to vote for the referendum initiates separately

Step 2 and 3 are for the vote for public office and Step 4 to 6 are the vote for the referendum
  

Pro-Green groups are really pushing the "ROC attend Tokyo Olympics as Taiwan and not Chinese Tapei" while the KMT are really pushing for the pro-nuclear (anti-coal) energy as well as the anti-Japan food product from 2011 nuclear disaster areas initiatives.  None of them seems to have really caught fire.  I say that out of all of them the  "ROC attend Tokyo Olympics as Taiwan and not Chinese Tapei" will barely pass but it will be a Pyrrhic victory as the IOC already stated that ROC will be banned from IOC if it tries to attend any Olympic event under "Taiwan."  I would say the DPP lost as much votes as it gained for its candidates as a result of this.  

The ones that is most likely to pass are the anti-gay marriage initiatives backed by religious conservatives with tacit support from KMT.  DPP knows this is a wedge issue are trying to run away from this topic as much as possible.  The ROC supreme court  already ruled that Gay marriage must be legalized.  But how that takes place can greatly influenced by this referendum.  What the anti-gay marriage initiative is really pushing for is a "Separate and unequal" law that legalizes Gay marriage but makes it clear that Gay marriage is not the same as traditional marriage even as it is legal.  This position is backed by most KMT and frankly DPP voters outside urban areas and liberal progress youth who are clearly in the minority here.  The supreme court ruling, if anything, by taking no law that legalizing Gay marriage off the table, actually help consolidate the anti-Gay marriage and the "Legal but Separate and unequal" center ground into one massive bloc and will crush the pro-Gay marriage vote election day.  

I am personally for, for civic purposes, putting Gay marriage on truly equal ground as traditional marriage.  So if I could vote I will mostly back the pro-Gary marriage initiatives which will get crushed. But I back the anti-Gay marriage campaign as a way to break the DPP coalition.  Whatever it takes to take down DPP and Tsai I guess.

[jaichind]

The trends the last few days after the poll blackout shows a clear sign of Blue-Green polarization which I think mostly works to the benefit of DPP and hurts Ko.  The KMT Han surge in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) pretty much freaked out the DPP high command into throwing everything they have into the campaign.  An ill advised attack by KMT chairman Wu against Prez Tsai COS and former Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) Mayor Chen by calling her a "pig" and then later apologized for clearly mobilized the DPP base.  Many pro-DPP cities and counties which were beginning to lean KMT are now back at tossup.  Of course this Green mobilization provoked a Blue consolidation as well.

Ko is the main loser out of this as his Green base could shift back to DPP's Yao in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and let in KMT's Ding.  DPP's main issue here is to how to deal with Ko and its candidate Yao.  Yao is going all out to attack Ko and DPP high command fear that this would drive pro-DPP pro-Ko vote outside of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) away from the DPP candidate.  But failure to back Yao would demoralize the Deep Green anti-Ko vote who might not turn out.

On the pro-Green but also pro-Ko PTT discussion board they had a prediction contest similar to the Atlas.  Out of over 600 predictions for mayor/county magistrate races the Medium guess was DPP 8 Seats KMT 12 seats Others 2 seats even though the Mode is DPP 7 seats KMT 13 Seats and Others 2.

Looking at the Others at 2 and assuming that Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) race will go to the KMT rebel over the official KMT candidate, that means the medium guess is that both Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) (Ko vs KMT) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) (Pro-KO MKT vs KMT) are both 50/50 with the KMT winning one of them but losing the other.  KMT clearly perfers to win Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) but KMT chairman Wu would insisted on handpicking the KMT candidate might privately prefer that KMT wins Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) instead.

Looking at DPP at 8 for the medium guess.  7 seats are lean or solid DPP so let give that to them.  Out of the 3 tossups Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7), Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) the medium guess seems to have the DPP at a slight disadvantage in all of them with DPP emerging with one of them.  DPP high command will surely prefer that the one they win is  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) since losing there would be a major blow.  Of course the Mode guess is for the DPP to win 7 which means all three tossup goes KMT.

My current guess is still DPP 7 KMT 14 Other 1.  I think in a anti-DPP year all the tossups will go KMT.

[jaichind]

It seems for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) DPP high command has decided to go all out to destroy Ko to stop him from being a force in 2020.  What to do about Ko has been a strategic dilemma for DPP high command since early this year.  One approach is to help him win re-election and then he will be a de facto ally for DPP in 2020.  Another approach is to have him beaten so badly in his campaign for re-election that he will know he will have no chance in 2020 and instead submit to backing DPP.  It seems DPP high command/Prez Tsai has decided on the first approach.  It seems that Prez Tsai has concluded
a) Ko cannot be trusted so it is better to take him out now
b) With Blue-Green polarization in the final weeks of the campaign, an all out attack on Ko means that Ko's supporters outside of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) are less likely to vote KMT or abstain
c) An approach of abandoning DPP's Yao would crushed DPP already poor chances in the Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) city council election and a crushing defeat there along with a poor Yao finish could lead to a domino effect in 2020 where either Ko or KMT will take out DPP

DPP Prez Tsai/PM Lai has campaigned hard for DPP's Yao and doubled down on pushing up Yao's vote.  What the DPP high command at this stage is hoping for is something like

KMT's Ding 40
Ko             34
DPP's Yao   25

where the KMT base is pushed down to its core 40% and Ko beaten by more than 5% and a clear signal to him that he has no chance in 2020 if he were to run for Prez.

You do have to give credit to DPP Prez Tsai for finally making a choice.  Dithering on exactly what her endgame is in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) I think threw away a good hand in early 2018 and by both wanting an alliance with Ko but not wanting to offend that anti-KO Deep Green faction in the DPP.

The main risk to this approach is that if Ko's youth supporters outside of  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) see the main reason why Ko was defeated was because of a last minute DPP stab then in 2020 the pro-Ko vote might sit it out in revenge and give the edge to the KMT.

[jaichind]

Campaigning over.  Voting is tomorrow.  The biggest focus of both KMT and DPP seems to be still Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7).  Both KMT's Han and DPP's Chen held massive rallies of size above 100K people each.

DPP's Chen rally



KMT's Han rally

[jaichind]

Final projection from me

In an medium anti-DPP wave KMT wins all the tossups except for Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) where the DPP lean is too strong to overcome despite a strong KMT candidate and the Han factor.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         42.5%
Ko           38%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         18%
KMT rebel  1%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         54%
DPP         46%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         42%
KMT rebel  4%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          48%
KMT          39%
KMT rebel   6%
DPP rebel    4%
TSU rebel    2%
DPP rebel    1%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         50%
DPP          48.5%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
ex-NP        0.5% (radical unification)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     2.5%
Indys           0.5%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           36%
MKT           34.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           29%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            52%
KMT           43%
Ind.            4%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             63%
pro-DPP Ind  29%
DPP rebel       6.5%
KMT rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             49%
DPP             47%
TSU rebel      3% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      0.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              50.5%
KMT              48%
DPP rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              53%
KMT             41%
DPP rebel       5%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      4.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            42.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            51%
DPP             45%
KMT rebel      3.5%
Indys            0.5%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            65%
DPP             34.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            51%
DPP             47%
KMT rebel      1%
Indys            1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get 
Pan-Blue   50.3%
Pan-Green 49.4%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

[jaichind]

Likely impact on key leadership in the DPP, KMT and Ko blocs from different results:

DPP camp:
a) If DPP holds both Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then Tsai will keep her role as  DPP leader and will not face an internal challenge ahead of 2020 and should have a better than 50/50 shot at reelection.
b) If DPP loses one of  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  then there will be pressure for Tsai to step down as DPP leader as well as a possible challenge to Tsai for 2020.  She will be wounded but should be the DPP candidate and her chances at re-election would depend on if Ko runs and who the KMT candidate it.
c) If DPP loses both  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  then Tsai has to give up DPP leadership for sure and she will face strong DPP pressure to step down for 2020.  I think DPP either way faces a difficult race in 2020 regardless if it is Tsai or Lai unless KMT nominates Wu.

KMT camp:
a) If the results are a major KMT victory sweeping all tossups with KMT doing well in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) and Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) where Wu is micromanaging the race.  Wu gets to stay on as KMT chairman and has a shot at being nominated as the KMT candidate for 2020 even tough Chu and Han are in the race as well.
b) If the results are a minor victory or even setback for for the KMT  then Wu is out for sure and he can kiss any chance at being nominated for 2020 good buy.  As to who will succeed him it would depend on
   1) If KMT does well in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) then Chu will most likely become KMT leader and become the KMT candidate in 2020 leading to a Tsai vs Chu rematch.
   2) If KMT loses Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) narrowly but does better than exepcted in Southern Taiwan counties, especially Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), then Han could become KMT leader since he would have been proven to be able to challenge DPP's hold on the South.

Ko Camp:
a) If Ko wins or loses narrowly and with DPP vote share being low then most likely he will not run in 2020 since Ko will have shown not to be able to attract KMT votes. 
b) If Ko loses narrowly but with a high DPP vote share then Ko will run in 2020 since he has shown that he can win KMT votes and will be out for revenge for DPP taking him down
c) If Ko loses by a large margin then he is out of 2020 for sure.

So a game theory view of these calculations, what result does Tsai want?  Well, she wants to avoid an internal DPP challenge AND make sure that Wu has as high of a chance being the KMT candidate AND wants Ko out of the picture.  If so then she would want to make sure
a) Ko loses badly so he is out of 2020
b) She actually would not mind if Han wins in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) since Han will not run as the KMT candidate in 2020 and Wu's chances of running as the KMT candidate has gone up.
c) DPP does will in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) and keeps it close so Chu would not be a strong contender in the KMT leadership battle.

So where does Tsai campaign last two days of the campaign season?  Why Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [to take out Ko] and New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) [to do damage to Chu] of course.  So a game theory view of Tsai's balance of risks and rewards seems to correct in practice. 

[jaichind]

The poll blackout does not hold true for referendum items.  There was a last minute poll for the KMT backed pro-nuclear power proposal of increasing the use nuclear as a stepping stone toward more clean power. The poll had 81.9% of voters willing to vote in the referendum and 51.7% of voters would vote for it.  So if turnout is 65% then a pessimistic calculation would be (0.65)*(0.819)*(.517) = 27.5% which would put it above the 25% threshold to pass.

[jaichind]

Live streams

Pro-KMT CTV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpM9Jr4TN4k

Pro-KMT CTITV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUPPkSANpyo

Neutral ETToday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5X_hiHtKkM

Live results from

China Times
https://www.chinatimes.com/

UDN
https://udn.com/news/index

[jaichind]

Counting in progress. It seems DPP is facing a medium to large anti-DPP wave.  KMT are winning almost all the tossups by a large margin.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) is KMT 56.1 DPP 42.8 !!
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) is KMT 51.9 DPP 35.6 KMT rebel 11.2 !!
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) is KMT 53.7 DPP 39.4 TSU rebel 4.7 !!
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) KMT 57.2 DPP 38.4 KMT rebel 3.1
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) KMT 39.4 DPP 33.4 KMT rebel 9.9 KMT rebel 7.7
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) unexpectedly flipped to KMT by a large margin KMT 52.5 DPP 43.3

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) is still very close KMT 40.8 DPP 39.8 KMT rebel 18.2

KMT ahead in mega tossup  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) which is at KMT 52.4 DPP 46.3

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is still neck-to-neck Ko 41.2 KMT 41.1 DPP 16.8

KMT ahead in KMT-MKT tossup Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) KMT 38.2 MKT 32.0 DPP 28.0 where a DPP surge helped KMT.

[jaichind]

In the 3 cities where popular DPP incumbents with cross partisan appeal they did pretty well

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8) DPP 54.6 KMT 45.4
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) DPP 49.7 KMT 27.6 pro-Green Independent 20.4 (pro-Green independent seems like too in a lot of Pan-Blue votes)
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) DPP 53.8 KMT 39.1 KMT rebel 4.9

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) went mostly as expected KMT 56.9 DPP 43.1 where KMT did a bit better than expected

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) was a DPP victory but a humble one where DPP rebels did well DPP 38.5 KMT 32.1 DPP rebel 11.8 pro-Blue independent 8.8 TSU rebel 4.8 DPP rebel 4.2

[jaichind]

Frankly this KMT victory is undeserved.  They pretty much did nothing these last 2 years with no resources and tons of infighting.  It was DPP's self-destruction plus Han coming out of nowhere to lead the KMT campaign that led to this.   Assuming Han wins how he does as mayor of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) will determine if this KMT revival is real or a dead cat bounce.

[jaichind]

DPP finally beginning to fall apart in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7).  It is now 52.8 DPP 45.8

[jaichind]

This election seems to be the return of the KMT local factions.  The places where KMT over-performed: Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  etc etc all have historically strong KMT local factions.  They drifted away from the KMT for elections outside of local government after Ma tried to cut them off.  Now they see the peril of the DPP onslaught  and swung back beyond the KMT candidates.

[jaichind]

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) it is DPP 51.6 KMT 29.6 DPP rebel 16.1.  It was said that the local KMT Yellow factions was going to back the DPP rebel as the KMT candidate was an outsider.  It seems that played out.  DPP did a good job of keeping its base together. 

[jaichind]

Only two races in doubt now:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ko 41.2 KMT 41.1 DPP 16.9
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)  KMT 41.0 DPP 39.7 KMT rebel 18.0