2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP (but no necessary pro-Tsai) New Taiwan national policy think tank came out with a new poll with some 2020 Prez trial heats.   This time they put Ma in as well.

It has (changes are vs Jan 2018 results from the same poll)

Prez Tsai approval/disapproval 31.1 (+0.4)/54.8(+3.7)
PM Lai approval/disapproval 40.6(-3.4)/44.8(+9.7)

Support Tsai's reelection Yes/No 33.0/57.7
Support Ko entering into 2020 race Yes/No 39.8/51.6
Support Ma entering into 2020 race Yes/No 24.3/65.1
Ma innocent/guilty of new charges related to sale of KMT assets in 2007 44.0/40.8

2020 DPP "primary" Tsai 23.4 (-1.0) Lai 48.6 (+6.3)
 
2020 Prez heats

Tsai(DPP)  46.2(+0.7)
Wu(KMT)  30.8(+1.2)

Tsai(DPP)  36.3(-1.9)
Chu(KMT)  47.8(+3.9)

Tsai(DPP)  39.5
Ma(KMT)   40.8

Lai(DPP)   58.0(+0.3)
Wu(KMT)  22.7(+0.6)

Lai(DPP)   46.5(-1.4)
Chu(KMT) 41.6(+6.6)

Lai(DPP)   50.8
Ma(KMT)  35.3

Tsai(DPP)  27.1(-4.5)
Wu(KMT)  18.3(+0.5)
Ko(Ind)     40.3(+3.7)

Tsai(DPP)  25.3(-3.7)
Chu(KMT)  31.3(+1.5)
Ko(Ind)     32.4(+2.4)

Tsai(DPP)  25.9
Ma(KMT)   27.8
Ko(Ind)     33.8


Lai(DPP)   36.8(-7.8 )
Wu(KMT)  15.5(-0.6)
Ko(Ind)    34.3(+7.7)

Lai(DPP)   33.6(-7.1)
Chu(KMT) 29.7(+1.9)
Ko(Ind)     28.2(+6.2)

Lai(DPP)   35.6
Ma(KMT)  24.3
Ko(Ind)    29.2

This seems to indicate that while Lai is still easily the strongest of DPP candidates his star has waned while Ko's level of support has surged.  Ma not polling so well and Chu is clearly KMT's best shot.  It is unlikely that Lai would be the DPP candidate.  For DPP to swap out Tsai and put in Lai is to admit that the DPP regime was a failure.

Same poll has vote for 2018 Mayor/County magistrate which has

DPP  38.6
KMT  29.5
Indy  10.5 (mostly Ko I guess)
MKT   0.4

Vote for City/County assembly member

KMT 29.9
DPP  22.9
Indy  3.6
NPP   2.5

[jaichind]

Looking at the New Taiwan national policy think tank poll breakdown gives one a good sense of demographic breakdown between Blues and Greens.   

If you look at the poll result of

Tsai(DPP)  39.5
Ma(KMT)   40.8

which is a near tie and then look at breakdown by gender and education you get

                Tsai(DPP)     Ma(KMT)
Men            44.6             35.1
Women       34.6              46.4

where women favor the Right Blue bloc and men favor the Left Green bloc despite Tsai being a women herself.

If you look it by education
                                       
                                     Tsai(DPP)     Ma(KMT)
Elementary school              45.6            22.1
Middle school                     52.3            30.6
High school                        33.6            50.0
Vocation school                  30.6            53.3
College                              39.7            41.4

Where Tsai is strong among lower educated population which makes up the KMT base.  Ma is stronger in higher educated population but ties Tsai with college educated voters.  Tsai does have unique appeal to the progressive liberal urban college educated voters beyond the DPP based whom have voted mostly KMT since 2000.

[jaichind]

The most recent Formosa (pro-DPP but somewhat negative on Tsai) poll has all sorts of interesting data.

It has Tsai approval/disapproval 26.1(+0.3)/61.7(-0.6) [change from June]

It also has "If Mainland China makes the condition that we accept One China Principle [There is One China and Taiwan is part of that One China even if both sides might disagree who represents that One China] should we do so" Yes/No 43.3/36.7.  In 2017 it was Yes/No 36.2/47.2 so there has been a shift toward more compromise with PRC in order to start talks.



It also asks "Who is more responsible for bad relationship between Mainland and Taiwan": Taiwan 35.0 Mainland China 29.3.  In 2017 it was Taiwan 33.4 Mainland 31.3.  So there has been a sift toward more negativity toward the Tsai regime for bad current Mainland-Taiwan conflict.



It also asks about "Do you trust Prez Tsai" which has it at Yes/No 30.6/52.2

Tsai falling to 30s consistently by early 2018

The poll points out that the same poll (or its ancestor pollsters)  for Prez Ma in the 2004 to 2018 period.

Around the time of Ma's reelection in early 2012 he was even on this question Ma only got to the 30s in terms of trust in his 5th year of his Presidency in late 2012.  2013-2016 period was a disaster for the Ma KMT administration and trust in Ma fell to 20s by 2013-2016 and only got to 30s as he left office.  Now he is back to even.

DPP Prez Chen had the same pattern although the poll only started in 2004 which is the start of his second term

Around the time of Chen reelection in 2004 it was even on this question.  Chen got to 30s (in fact 20s) in terms of trust only in 2005 which is 5th year of his term.  It stayed in the 20s until he left office and fell to 5.9 in late 2008 right after he left office when he was indicted and then convicted for corruption.   As time passed on even Chen is now back in the low 20s despite still being out on medical parole and in theory still serving his prison term of his conviction.

Tsai fell to 30s in terms of trust in her second year (early 2018) which is a record.


The poll asks for approval of KMT and DPP and then based on  that it constructed a specturm of Blue abd Green voters.  
 

G1 G2 G3 are pro-KMT voters with G1 being most pro-Blue.  G7 G8 G9 are pro-DPP voters with G9 being the most pro-Green.   It has the Blue/Green split being 31.5/24.7.
G4 voters seem to approve of both Blue and Greens, G5 does not seem engaged and most likely are non voters with G6 being against both Blues and Greens.

A map of how each tranche of voters  trust several key politicians has
 

Brown is Taipei mayor Ko, Deep Green is Prez Tsai, Light Green is PM Lai, Dotted Green is former DPP Prez Chen, Dark Blue is New Taipei City mayor and 2016 KMT Prez candidate Chu, and Dotted Blue is former KMT Prez Ma.

The map is not a surprise.  Blue voters trust Chen and Ma and not Tsai Lai and Chen and vice versa with Green voters.  The map clearly shows Chu is more popular than Ma while Lai is more popular than Tsai.  Despite being a convicted criminal for corruption the Deep Green still back and trust Chen.

Ko seems to enjoy trust with Light Blue and Light Green as well independents that are hostile  to both Blue and Green blocs.  This is this the power of Ko that he can appeal to all 3 camps.  

Main message is the same.  KMT should nominate Chen in 2020 while DPP ideally should have Lai run but that might be hard given Tsai is the incumbent.  For Ko 2020 is his chance and most likely he will take it.

I suspect 2020 will be similar to USA 1992 with Bush vs Clinton vs Perot with Ko playing the role of Perot without that episode of Perot dropping out and then coming back.  If it was not for that Perot had a chance to go above 30% of the vote and made a real 3 way race.

[jaichind]

Chinatimes (pro-Blue although mostly anti KMT Chairman Wu and somewhat positive on Ko) poll for 2020 Prez race looks ugly for DPP.



Support for Ko to run for Prez in 2020 if he were to win re-election as mayor of Taipei Support/Do not Support 37.7/35.7

3 way race (Chinatimes is so negative on Wu they are not bothering polling him)
Ind(Ko)    31.5
KMT(Chu) 26.9
DPP (Tsai) 12.1

Ind(Ko)     32.0
KMT(Chu)  26.7
DPP(Lai)    15.4

Where Lai does not do that much better than Tsai.

The Ko phenomenon is mostly a function of the fact that the Tsai DPP regime is imploding (to be fair only to be confirmed in the 2018 elections) 2 years into their administration.  Chen DPP regime only started to implode in 2005 and Ma KMT regime only started to implode in 2013 both in the 5th year of their administration.  Lee KMT regime started its meltdown in 1997 (although Lee and KMT made a short term comeback in the 1998 election cycle) which is its 7th since Lee was elected on his own in 1990.  In all those other cases the mainstream opposition party (DPP or KMT) was in a position to pick up support lost by the discredited ruling regime.  Problem for KMT is the DPP implosion came too quickly and the voter population's poor memories of 2013-2016 are still fresh.  Also having a fairly unpopular leader such was Wu (who to be fair is a good backroom operator) means that support lost by DPP will not flow to the KMT.  Instead it seems to have flowed to Ko.

The risk for Ko is that he gets labeled by the KMT as the "de facto" Green candidate to consolidate the Blue vote behind the KMT even as Ko needs to gobble up the Green vote to have a chance in 2018 Taipei mayor race as well as a hypothetical 2020 Prez race.  So Ko's ground war is about getting pro-DPP  grassroots organizations to come over to him and Ko's air war is mostly about attacking the DPP Tsai regime to present himself as NOT GREEN so he can scoop up some Light Blue vote.  We will see later this year if this conflicting strategies causes problems for Ko.

[jaichind]

With around 100 days to election both KMT and DPP came out with their ratings of the Mayor and county magistrate elections.  I left out the Fujian counties since they are going to the Blue camp no matter what.
                                                                 KMT rating                    DPP rating
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)                     Tossup                    DPP behind
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)        KMT well ahead               Tossup
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)               KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)          KMT slightly ahead      DPP slightly ahead
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)             KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)            Tossup                  DPP well ahead
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)               KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)           KMT well ahead              Tossup
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)           Tossup                     DPP behind
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)                KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)          KMT well ahead            DPP behind
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)  KMT slightly ahead            Tossup
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)             KMT well ahead           DPP behind
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)              Tossup                   DPP well ahead
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)            KMT behind               DPP well ahead
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)                 KMT well ahead              Tossup
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)             KMT behind               DPP well ahead
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)     KMT slightly ahead           Tossup
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)        KMT well ahead             DPP behind
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)          KMT well ahead             DPP behind

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) it is mostly Ko vs KMT where Ko seems to be ahead even as the KMT claims that it is a Tossup and DPP is mostly out of the game.

In Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) is is mostly a KMT vs MKT battle with MKT most likely ahead even though the KMT rate as "Tossup" and DPP seems to be out of the game.

DPP is not realistic in calling New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) "Tossup" when it is clear that KMT is ahead.

KMT's rating of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  as "Tossup" is not realistic even though it is close and could go KMT in a wave year.

KMT and DPP seems to agreed that Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) are close.

KMT rating of Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)  of "Tossup" is interesting.   In theory they are not realistic since the DPP clearly has the edge.  On the other hand there are all sort of rumors large scale DPP infighting in Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) which could make the race a lot closer.

DPP claim that Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)  is a "Tossup" is not realistic but I agree part of the reason is because of DPP infighting which if they can settle could make the race a lot closer.

Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) is very close this year with the DPP running a very strong candidate and even the KMT acknowledge the threat.

DPP rating Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)  as "Tossup" is not realistic but I guess they are gambling the  KMT rebel taking more KMT votes than expected.

[jaichind]

One 黃偉展 (Huang) who is a DPP candidate in a multi-member district for City council of Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) had to drop out over a sex scandal with some very funny details.

黃偉展 (Huang) who is currently a Zone head and a member of the New Tide faction campaign ad with DPP ex-mayor of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) New Tide leader Chen Ju.


The sex scandal blew up when a women who is on 黃偉展 (Huang) 's campaign staff and claims to be 黃偉展 (Huang)'s "Mistress #5" came out to expose 黃偉展 (Huang) slimy campaign tactics after a falling out.



"MIstriss #5" said that 黃偉展 (Huang)  wanted her to
1) start an affair with another DPP rival candidate in the same district and then go public with the affiar
2) get into a car accident with another women DPP rival candidate who is known drunk driver in order to force the police to charge the rival DPP candidate with drunk driving in the aftermath of the accident

"Mistress #5" also said that 黃偉展 (Huang) pressured "Mistress #4" to have an abortion in order to not hurt his political career.

"Mistress #5" also said that  黃偉展 (Huang) indicated that he is running for City Council only to further his business operations on Mainland China and he indicated that a lot of DPP City Council members have large and significant business operations on Mainland China based on the need of the local CCP to "buy influence" with the DPP at the local level for political mileage for the CCP in the future.

"Mistress #5" also came out with a public announcement that she has no intention of committing suicide and that if anything were to happen to her it is the result of foul play.

At first 黃偉展 (Huang) held a press conference with his wife where he did not deny the allegations of "Mistress #5" but said his statements to her were "taken out of context" but does admit to having several affairs.  At the press conference his wife forgave him and backed him continuing him staying in the race.


After this pressure from DPP high command finally forced 黃偉展 (Huang) to drop out of the race.

This sort of stuff is fairly standard in multi-member district races where both the KMT and DPP have several candidates and all of them have good reason to back-stab each other since their intra-party rival's votes are transferable to then.  Candidates of both DPP and KMT have been known for all sorts of dirty tricks against their so called comrades in these sort of races, especially at the local level.

[jaichind]

The deadline to register was a couple of days ago.  The KMT managed to convince a bunch of rebels not to contest (Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)) but gained new rebels (Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)).  Both the KMT and DPP will have some time to convince some of their rebels to drop out.  Based on the current list of candidates my most recent projections are:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [I assume DPP's Lu will not run and DPP's Su will run in Tainan]
KMT         43%
Ko           42%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         12%
KMT rebel  2.5%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         52%
KMT         41%
KMT rebel  6.5%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          45%
KMT          40%
DPP rebel    7%
TSU rebel    4%
KMT rebel   2%
DPP rebel    2%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          51%
KMT         48%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           52%
DPP            45%
KMT rebel     2%
Indys           1%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           37%
MKT           33.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           29%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            50%
KMT           43%
Ind.            5.5%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1.5%

Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             62%
pro-DPP Ind  30%
DPP rebel       5.5%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             50%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      2.5% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      1%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              51%
KMT              47%
DPP rebel       1.5%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              50%
KMT             43%
DPP rebel       6%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             45%
KMT rebel      6%
Ind.              1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             56%
KMT            43.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            66%
DPP             33%
Ind.              1%

Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      3%
Indys            2%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Blue   50.4%
Pan-Green 49.3%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

[jaichind]

The latest government Mainland Affairs Council poll has Unification-Independence split at 17.1%-17.7% which is the smallest pro-Independence lead over Unification since 2002.  Once you allocate people that are open to unification (decided on unification-independence later) and would de facto support independence (status quo on a permanent basis) you get the most pro-unification result since 2007. 

This is not that big of a surprise.  During KMT rule pro-independence support usually surges and during DPP rule pro-unification support surges.

[jaichind]

2 Months before the election TVBS (pro-Blue) came out with its latest polls in the 6 special municipalities.  Most of the polls are converging toward results similar to what I am predicting and also toward fundamentals assuming that it is a slight anti-DPP wave.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
Ko's lead down to 5% as KMT's Ding gains ground as I expected.  I expect this race to be neck-to-neck by election day with Ding with a slight edge.
 


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
DPP's Su gains a bit of ground and should gain more ground but not enough to stop a solid KMT victory



Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP's Cheng with a solid lead.  The KMT rebel Yang at 6% and mostly at the expense of KMT's lackluster Chen.  The pro-KMT fundamentals, although weakening, of this race should mean what Cheng polls at this stage is going to be his vote share, which is around 53%.  Rest goes to the pan-Blue bloc.  Still a solid victory in such a historically strong KMT area.



Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
DPP's Lin gains a bit of ground.  This election was always going to be neck-to-neck with KMT with a tiny edge only because of the anti-DPP tide



kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT's Han is running a strong race in this open seat against DPP's Chen (who is also suppose to be a strong candidate).  But the DPP lead is down to 4% and election night could deliver a shocking victory to KMT's Han or at least a very narrow defeat. 



Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP's Huang is losing ground as are the two pan-Green rebels (Su and Shu which fell to 6% and 3% respectively).  Pro-KMT independent Chen dropped out of the race and most of his support went to the other pro-KMT independent Lin who surged to 13% from 7% two months ago.  KMT's Gao has a shot making this a close race if he could get Lin's vote to come over to him.  I suspect that is most likely going to be the case but Gao is running out of time to make this happen in time to make him a viable candidate to make this a close race despite clear pan-Green and DPP weakness.

[jaichind]

The cross-tabls in the TVBS poll in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  highlights KMT Ding's strategic dilemma.  If we look at the TVBS poll cross-tabs for May July and Sept by DPP supporters, KMT supporters, NPP supporters, Independents, Minor Parties (PFP, NP, NPB TSU, GP, plus refuse to answer) we have

Overall
                                    May      July       Sept
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       31       40          37
KMT Ding (丁守中)           33        30          32
DPP Yao(姚文智)               13       11          11
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


DPP voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                   (17%)  (16%)     (18%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       32       46          39
KMT Ding (丁守中)             3         5            3
DPP Yao(姚文智)               49       41          48
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            0


KMT voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                   (28%)  (25%)     (25%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       15       21          17
KMT Ding (丁守中)            76       73         72
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 2        0            1
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


NPP voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                     (8%)   (7%)     (8%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       61       69         79
KMT Ding (丁守中)            13        3           6
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12      12            5
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            0


Independent voters
(have KMT DPP learners plus truely independents)
                                    May      July       Sept
                                    (38%)  (40%)   (34%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       41       46         47
KMT Ding (丁守中)            21      18          24
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 5       6            2
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


Minor parties (or refuse to ID) voters
(this bloc are mostly non-KMT Pan Blue voters, non-DPP Pan Green voters with a lean toward the Pan-Blues)
                                    May      July       Sept
                                    (11%)  (12%)   (15%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       12      34          27
KMT Ding (丁守中)            24      30          33
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 9       8            7
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --           3


Ko's main strength is that he pretty much captured half of DPP support plus almost all the pan-Green rebels.  Ko is also able to get a slice of the KMT vote plus a solid chunk of the non-KMT pan-Blue vote.  Of course Ko also have a good part of the non-aligned vote which we can see as his core.
 DPP's Yao is reduced to just half of the DPP base and almost non of the non-DPP pan-Green vote.  KMT's Ding has most but not all of the KMT vote and a good chunk of the non-KMT Pan-Blue vote.

So Ding's dilemma is IF Ko is going to continue his strength in the Pan-Green vote which pretty much means Yao is consigned to single digit or low double digit overall support  then Ding should go on the attack  against Ko painting Ko AS THE PAN-GREEN CANDIDATE to consolidate the entire Pan-Blue vote.  That tends to lead to something like Ding 45 Ko 40 Yao 15.  The risk of this strategy is that the pro-Ko Pan-Blue vote might be committed and will not swing back to Ding and an attack on Ko as the Pan-Green candidate will prevent the migration of the Pan-Green vote from Ko to Yao then the result will be Ding 40 Ko 45 Yao 15.  Of course Ding could gamble that Yao will recapture some of the DPP and other Pan-Green votes and as a result Ko takes a more neutral position on the Blue-Green axis. In which case Ding would mostly attack Yao as the pan-Green candidate but attack Ko mostly on policy execution issues than an ideological onslaught.  If successful the result will be Ding 40 Ko 35 Yao 25.  The main risk is that such an Ding attack pattern would be unsuccessful and a strong Yao  campaign could draw non-KMT Pan-Blue or even KMT voters to back Ko in as Ko gains a non-Green image in which case it would be Ding 35 Ko 40 Yao 25.

The basic idea is Ding would have to guess how the Pan-Green vote will flow and what sort of Blue-Green position Ko will take in the last 2 months of the campaign.  Ko's strength with non-DPP Green vote is very powerful has he could get a good part of the pan-Green vote without the baggage of being aligned with the DPP.  Ko being a political Chameleon and opportunist makes Ding's guess difficult to get right and the wrong bet could throw the election to Ko when Ding has a solid shot of winning if he plays his cards right.

[jaichind]

Slightly pro-Green Apply Daily will also have polls for the 6 special municipalities

So far they have

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       34.9
KMT Ding (丁守中)            30.8
DPP Yao(姚文智)               10.4
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1.9

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT Ho(侯友宜)               40.2％
DPP Su(蘇貞昌)               29..4％

Both roughly matches TVBS results and if anything are closer to what the race will most likely converge to (KMT's Ding and DPP's Su most likely will gain ground in their respective races in ling with underlying fundamentals). 

[jaichind]

Also a couple of more polls came out on the Unification-Independence topic has record numbers of unification

Pro-Blue UDN poll had



Which if you add up ASAP and leaning you have

            Unification    Independence
2010         14                 31
2011         14                 29
2012         15                 31
2013         15                 33
2014         12                 34
2015         13                 28
2016         17                 31
2017         20                 24
2018         23                 24


While the pro-Green Taiwan Public Opinion Fund had


Unification       26.1
Independence  36.2

With the Unification-Independence gap the smallest in the 2000s.   The absolute level of support for Unification is the highest since 1996.  While support for Independence peaked at 51.6 in mid 2016 and have since collapsed to 36.2.

[jaichind]

Latest Slightly pro-Green Apply Daily polls has Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) neck to neck.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT Lu(盧秀燕)     30.9
DPP Lin(林佳龍)     30.3  (incumbent)

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) (open seat)
DPP Chen(陳其邁)  33.8
KMT Han(韓國瑜)   31.2

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue TVBS came out with a bunch of battleground cities/counties polls with projections:

Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
               poll       projection
KMT          40           49
DPP          31           46
KMT rebel   5            5


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
               poll       projection
KMT          35           41
DPP           29          42
KMT rebel  15          15


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
               poll       projection
KMT          42         49
DPP          35          49
KMT rebel   1           1
KMT rebel   1           1


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
               poll       projection
KMT          50         56
DPP          30         44


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
               poll       projection
KMT         44          50
DPP         36          49


The Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) poll results are a shock and shows how KMT's Han(韓國瑜) non-orthodox style of campaign is breaking new ground for the KMT.  I think KMT's projections are assuming a surge in DPP turnout and adjust for TVBS's house effects.

Given that we are seeing a small anti-Green wave I think TVBS's projections are mostly to generous to DPP.   On these poll results I think KMT should win Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) especially given tactical voting by KMT voters that support the KMT rebel.

If DPP loses Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) in addition to Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4), and Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) and compounded by being blown out in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) and aipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [ it would be a complete disaster.  In such a case Tsai will most likely lose her 2020 re-election campaign.

It all comes down to Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  now.  DPP has to pull out wins in at least one of these 2 cities.

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue TVBS poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

                                    poll       projection
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       40           44
KMT Ding (丁守中)            32           40
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12           15
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1            1

KMT Ding (丁守中) will end up with 40-45 in the end.  So it comes down to how many votes DPP Yao(姚文智)  ends up with.  If DPP Yao(姚文智)  can get above 20 then DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲) is most likely sunk.

The breakdown in support by party are the following

                                    DPP         KMT         NPP        None        Others
                                   (18%)      (28%)      (9%)       (34%)        (11%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       39           17           77            55            19
KMT Ding (丁守中)             5           78             5            20            32
DPP Yao(姚文智)               41            1           15              5            18
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          0            0.3          0              1             4

Others are mostly other Pan-Blue parties (PFP NP) plus a smallish Pan-Green parties (TSU SDP).  PFP will mostly back Ko (柯文哲) and NP will mostly back Ding (丁守中).

How DPP high command plays this in the end will depend on their evaluation on the following set of questions:
1) If Ko (柯文哲) were to run in the 2020 Prez race will it harm DPP or KMT more? Most likely the answer is it will hurt DPP more since Ko (柯文哲) will appeal to the youth which used to be the DPP core vote.
2) If Ko (柯文哲) more likely to run in 2020 if he wins narrowly or lose narrowly?  The general view is that Ko (柯文哲) is more likely to run in 2020 if he narrowly lose since he will blame DPP for his defeat and will be looking for revenge in 2020.
3) If Ko (柯文哲) were to run in 2020 will he be stronger if he won the 2018  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) mayoral race narrowly or loses the race narrowly?  The general view is that  Ko (柯文哲) will be stronger if he wins his race for re-election.
4) If  DPP Yao(姚文智) were to collapse to low double digits or even single digits and the DPP City Council assembly election candidates gets crushed how much will that hurt Tsai's reelection effort in 2020?  The view is a lot.  

So the DPP High command is stuck.  Their goal is clearly to avoid a Ko run and if he runs then somehow make sure he is a weak candidate.  Ideally for DPP, DPP Yao(姚文智) gets vote share in the high teens so the DPP Taipei City assembly election results avoid a collapse and Ko (柯文哲) narrowly wins which in turn decides not to run in 2020.  Of course it is hard to micromanage DPP Yao(姚文智)'s vote share that precisely.  So in the home stretch the DPP high command will have a lot of decisions to make on how much to invest in DPP Yao(姚文智) clearly failing campaign.

[jaichind]

A bit about the Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) County magistrate race. 
It will be KMT's Rao(饒慶鈴)
 

vs DPP's Liu (劉櫂豪)

 
vs KMT rebel Kuang(鄺麗貞)


The KMT rebel Kuang(鄺麗貞) is actually a former KMT County magistrate and the wife of a former KMT County magistrate Wu (吳俊立)

Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) at the national level is very pro-Blue due to the high concentration of pro-KMT aborigines.  But at the local level the county could be quite competitive.  For legislative elections the Aborigines vote in a separate Aborigine slate which reduces the KMT lead over DPP. For county magistrate races the power of local clans and factions comes into play and gives DPP opportunities.

The Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) KMT is dominated by 3 families.  One of the 3 families is the  Rao(饒) clan who is led by former KMT Vice Speaker of the Legislature Rao(饒穎奇) who is the father of the current KMT candidate and current speaker of the County legislature Rao(饒慶鈴). Rao the Elder(饒穎奇) was MP for a long time before retiring 1998 but still has great influence in county politics. The second of the 3 families is the Huang(黃) clan led by the sitting County magistrate Huang(黃健庭) whose father was a county magistrate back in the 1960s and was a MP from 2001-2009 before becoming county magistrate.  The last of the 3 families is the Wu(吳) clan led by Wu(吳俊立) was elected County magistrate in 2005.  Then due to corruption charges stemming when Wu(吳俊立) was speaker of the county assembly had to resign.  His wife Kuang(鄺麗貞) was appointed by him to take over from his role in 2006.

On the DPP side Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) are their kingpins of county politics.  Both came from second tier KMT political families and went over the the DPP due the the domination of the top 3 KMT families.

The recent history of  Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) elections leading up to 2018 is quite interesting.

We first had the 2001 County Magistrate election which ended up with KMT splinter PFP winning
PFP Shu(徐慶元)  44.3%
KMT Wu(吳俊立)  36.9%
DPP Lai(賴坤成)   17.3%

Shu(徐慶元) was a rival of  Wu(吳俊立) in the KMT and ran in the 1997 county magisrate election as a KMT rebel in a losing cause and went over to the PFP and took advantage of the PFP surge in 2000-2001 to win.

In the 2001 Legislative race it was
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 42.5%
DPP                       30.7%
PFP                       23.4%
TSU                        2.7%
   
In the 2004 legislative race Huang(黃健庭) won re-election
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 61.6%
DPP                       40.0%

Shu(徐慶元) knew he was going to be in trouble for his 2005 re-election and took on as his vice-magistrate DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) hoping to form a Shu(徐慶元)-DPP alliance for 2005 but then decided to back DPP's  Liu(劉櫂豪) to run in 2005 against  Wu(吳俊立),  The result of the 2005 county magistrate election was
KMT Wu(吳俊立)  59.2%
DPP Liu(劉櫂豪)   38.2%

But Wu(吳俊立) had to step down due to corruption charges so he divorced his wife Kuang(鄺麗貞) who he appointed to the role of county magistrate.  She ran in a by-election against DPP's  Liu(劉櫂豪) and won in 2006.  The DPP side was contested with both  Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) wanting to run but DPP went with Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) running as a rebel.
KMT  Kuang(鄺麗貞)  63.0%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)      24.5%
DPP rebel Lai(賴坤成) 7.1%

In the 2008 legislative race Huang(黃健庭) won re-election again
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 61.1%
DPP                       37.0%
 
In the 2009 county magistrate election due to the poor performance of Kuang(鄺麗貞) the KMT led by Rao the Elder(饒穎奇) pushed her off the ticket and nominated MP Huang(黃健庭)  instead who won against DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) who came much closer to winning due to anti-incumbency against the KMT at the center.   The DPP had convinced  Lai(賴坤成) that he will be nominated in the by-election for KMT Huang(黃健庭) seat if Huang(黃健庭) were to win which he did
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 52.6%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    47.4%

The 2010 legislative by-election saw the KMT lose for the first time. With Wu(吳俊立) angry that his wife was pushed off the ticket insisted that his wife  Kuang(鄺麗貞) be nominated as the KMT candidate in the legislative by-election.  Fearing that Wu(吳俊立) might split the KMT the KMT went along with this and due to lack of support from the Rao(饒) clan  Kuang(鄺麗貞) lost
KMT Kuang(鄺麗貞)  45.3%
DPP Lai(賴坤成)       49.5%

In the 2012 legislative election Liu(劉櫂豪)  insisted on running and the DPP convinced Lai(賴坤成) to switch over to run in Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) next door.  On the KMT side they nominated Rao(饒慶鈴) but with Wu(吳俊立) angry on what happen to his wife in 2009-2010 ran as a KMT  rebel and threw the race to Liu(劉櫂豪).
KMT Rao(饒慶鈴)         29.6%
DPP  Liu(劉櫂豪)          45.6%
KMT rebel Wu(吳俊立)  25.0%

In 2014 country magistrate election DPP MP Liu(劉櫂豪) challanged KMT Huang(黃健庭) one more time and lost despite the national anti-KMT wave.
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 54.4%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    45.6%

In the 2016 legislative election with the KMT still splintered and a clear anti-KMT wave nationally and Rao(饒慶鈴) refusing to run  Liu(劉櫂豪)  won re-election against a second tier KMT candidate.
KMT                      35.8%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    64.2%

For the 2018 county magistrate election the KMT knew that the reason why they lost the 2012 and 2016 legislative races was due to infighting by the 3 main KMT clans.  So the KMT worked with get all three clans united around Rao(饒慶鈴)'s candidacy.   Wu(吳俊立) also made his peace with the KMT and agreed to be Rao(饒慶鈴)'s campaign manager.  The KMT also agreed to support  Wu(吳俊立)'s sister to become the new speaker of the county legislative after the elections.   Then in early Sept a bombshell took place. Wu(吳俊立)'s wife and former county magistrate Kuang(鄺麗貞) registered as a candidate.  The total shock displayed by her husband Wu(吳俊立) seems to indicate he had now knowledge of her actions.  Multiple attempts by Wu(吳俊立) to try to get his wife to withdraw has failed.   

So now we will have the spectacle of the husband of a candidate being the campaign manager of a rival candidate.  There are conspiracy theories abound that this good cop - bad cop routine by Wu(吳俊立) who is still bend on getting revenge for 2009-2012. 

DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) is a strong candidate that runs well ahead of the DPP and the KMT split now gives him a chance.  In the end most like he will come up short but will give the KMT quite a scare due to Kuang(鄺麗貞) running as a KMT rebel.

[jaichind]

Latest UDN (pro-Blue) poll on r Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
                                   
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       38 (+1)         
KMT Ding (丁守中)            35 (+6) 
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 8           
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1

Confirms the TVBS poll showing KMT Ding (丁守中) gaining an closing the gap.


Cross-tabs are interesting
For Men it is 40-37-8 for  Ko (柯文哲)
For Women it is 35-34-6 for  Ko (柯文哲) (Gender gap on ROC is women are more center-Right)

The age differences are huge
20-39  it is  62-19-5 for  Ko (柯文哲)
60+ it is 44-15-8 for Ding (丁守中)

Pan Blue favor Ding (丁守中) 66-26-1
Pan Greens favor Ko (柯文哲)  49-34-6

It seems given the age and partisan cross-tabs, the entire DPP youth vote has pretty much gone over to Ko (柯文哲).  It is also interesting and sad that with the older DPP base left DPP Yao(姚文智)  is down to 8%.  I would agree with DPP analysts here and say "this cannot be" and assume that election day other older DPP supporters  will come out and push DPP Yao(姚文智)'s vote share to 15% at least.  If course sometimes if our only argument is "this cannot be" the result might end up being "it is."

The danger for  Ko (柯文哲) is that he is very reliant on a large youth turnout which clearly came out in 2014 in an anti-KMT wave.  This year it seems it will be a small to medium anti-DPP wave.  I tend to think in such a scenario the DPP youth will most likely just not turn out.  If they did they would vote  Ko (柯文哲) but more likely than they will not. 

[jaichind]

Some recent polls from fairly quality pollsters seems to indicate the anti-DPP wave is building.  

The pro-Green Formasa News had its Late Oct Monthly poll on overall climate which had

Tsai's approval/disapproval at 25.5 (-1.5)/67.3(+4.0)
Tsai's truest/distrust 26.7(-3.2)/58.5(+3.4)

DPP approval/disapproval 27.4(+1.0)/57.5(+5.5)
KMT approval/disapproval 41.7(+11.0)!!!!/39.2(-3.8 )

Where the KMT approval surged.  
The main narrative for a minor anti-DPP wave is that KMT support is still tepid and the anti-DPP feelings are mostly pro-Ko and made up of partly the 2014-2016 DPP coalition that is going over to Ko but still anti-KMT.  With KMT support going up this will become a lot bigger problem for DPP.

Looking at 2008-2016 KMT Prez Ma approval/disapproval and trust/distrust
 

Shows that on the trust/distrust Tsai is already at around Ma May 2013 levels which is the 5th year of the Ma Presidency.  Tsai got there in 2 years.

 
Pro-Blue UDN poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)

Has it at KMT 54 DPP 26 with DPP getting destroyed in the youth vote as well.  

In many ways the DPP reaction to these polls are "this cannot be !!" DPP Su(蘇貞昌) being behind by 28 points would be like Jeb Bush going back to FL to run as governor again and behind behind the Dem candidate by 28 point.  The fact that he can lose is obvious but he will at least keep it close.  Part of the problem is that the Ko vote outside Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) seems to be drifting toward the KMT which is really bad news for DPP.


Pro-Blue China times poll Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) now has it at KMT 43.5 DPP 36.2.  


And cleaning up on the youth vote which is a shock



All these pollsters have house effects but are all golden standard pollsters in addition to TVBS.  All of them had a good track record for filtering out their House effect

The most recent DPP collapse most likely has to do with KMT's Han(韓國瑜) in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) where his surge has brought in the Youth vote and is bring in the pro-Ko vote along with him to back KMT.

[jaichind]

UDN (pro-Blue) poll on Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) still has MKT somewhat ahead of KMT.

MKT Shu(徐欣瑩)     36(+5)
KMT Yang(楊文科)    29(+4)
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)  11(--)


The structure of the race seems similar to Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where Ko is winning around 50% of the DPP vote and around 20% of the KMT vote.  Here Ko's ally and KMT splinter MKT MKT Shu(徐欣瑩) has 50% of the Pan-Green vote while getting around 33% of the Pan-Blue vote.  There will be a consolidation of the Pan-Blue vote around KMT Yang(楊文科) right before the election so this election will become neck-to-neck.

As mentioned before, as of 2012 all 3 candidates were members of the KMT.  This is truly a KMT vs KMT vs KMT race.  

[jaichind]

New TVBS poll for Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) which is pretty much one of the last ones before the poll publishing dark period behinds.  It has the KMT surge continuing and now projects a KMT win.
               poll            projection
KMT          48 (+6)         52
DPP          38 (+3)         47
KMT rebel   1                  1
KMT rebel   0.3 (-0.7)      0.3

The party ID of this poll is even more favorable to the DPP than the one a month ago with DPP party ID going from 21 to 27 while KMT party ID goes from 17 to 18 and NPP Party ID goes from 6 to 7.  But KMT's Han(韓國瑜) seems to just grow among independents to put him even further ahead. 

[jaichind]

As the poll embargo is approaching in a couple of days various media outfits are coming out with polls while they are still allowed to.  Most of them seem to build the narrative that the anti-DPP wave is building.

A UDN (pro-Blue) poll swing county Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) has the KMT taking a strong lead

KMT   41(+7)
DPP    24(--)


UDN also has a poll in another battle ground Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) also showing the KMT taking a large lead

KMT   43 (+9)
DPP   30 (-3)


A Formosa Daily (pro-Green) poll for  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) also has a KMT lead but smaller
KMT    35.7%
DPP     28.7％

The real lead most likely is somewhere in between.

Apple Daily (lean Green) poll for  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) finds the KMT being much closer than expected
KMT   36.9％ (-5.4)
DPP    26.8％ (+8.3)



Apple Daily also has a poll for Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) which also finds DPP lead as much more narrow than expected in a multi-cornered contest

                Total                       Pan-Green       Pan-Blue
                                                 voters             voters        Independents
DPP           25.6%  (+1.7)           61.9               10.8               31.3
KMT           21.1%  (+7.3)            1.2               60.2                10.3
KMT rebel    6.5%  (+0.6)             6.4                 4.7                 8.0
DPP rebel    2.8%  (-2.1)              5.2                 3.6                 2.2
TSU rebel    1.9%  (-1.1)              3.6                 nil                  1.6
DPP rebel    1.4% (+1.0)              1.4                 0.4                 0.9

The KMT rebel seems to be hurting the KMT candidate ability to win Pan-Green voters while the Pan-Green rebels are eating into the once solid Pan-Green vote for DPP.  Main danger for DPP is that in an anti-DPP wave election many of the undecided independents might break for KMT.


There are more signs that in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Ko is beginning to feel the heat of the KMT resurgence and is beginning to form de facto alliances with various local DPP machines to try to beat back the KMT.  Ko reads  KMT's Han(韓國瑜) surge in  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  as sucking up the internet oxygen and he has to beat back the KMT across the board to regain the initiative.   This might have blowback for Ko as the anti-DPP vote might then consolidate around the KMT.

[jaichind]

Latest projection from me

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         42%
Ko           40%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         16%
KMT rebel  1.5%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         55%
DPP         45%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         51%
KMT         43%
KMT rebel  5%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          43%
KMT          39%
KMT rebel   7%
DPP rebel    6%
TSU rebel    3%
DPP rebel    2%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         50%
DPP          48.5%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
ex-NP        0.5% (radical unification)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           53%
DPP            44%
KMT rebel     2%
Indys           1%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           38%
MKT           36.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           25%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            50%
KMT           43%
Ind.            5.5%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1.5%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             63%
pro-DPP Ind  30%
DPP rebel       5.5%
KMT rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             49%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      4% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      0.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              50%
KMT              48%
DPP rebel       1.5%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              49%
KMT             43%
DPP rebel       7%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%
Ind.              1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             55%
KMT            44.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      4%
Indys            1%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            66%
DPP             33%
Ind.              1%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            50%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      2%
Indys            2%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get  
Pan-Blue   50.8%
Pan-Green 48.9%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

[jaichind]

Some more polls as the poll blackout period approaches.

Pro-Blue UDN has for Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)

KMT          31 (+3)
DPP          28(+3)
KMT rebel  15(-2)

Given the pro-Blue nature of UDN polls I would say in theory the DPP incumbent should have the edge. But I do think the KMT candidate will win since as the election day approaches the KMT rebel will lose steam and last minute tactical voting will favor the KMT candidate.






Apple Daily (pro-Green) poll on Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has it close to neck-to-neck

Ko              34.1 (-0.8 )
KMT           31.4 (+0.6)    
DPP             7.1 (-3.3)
KMT rebel    1.4 (-0.5)

In theory KMT-DPP polarization in the last couple weeks of the election should give KMT's Ding the edge.  In practice the main danger this poll shows is that while Ding has a viable and perhaps solid chance of winning the DPP candidate collapse might signal DPP->Ko tactical voting to stop KMT.  Of course that might trigger  pro-KO pan-Blue voter to switch back to KMT.




Ettoday (which is neutral but not that high quality pollster) came out with a poll for Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)

KMT     42.6 (+7.0)
DPP     31.8 (+0.8 )

Not sure if I buy the gap being what it is given the lower quality reputation of Ettoday but the trneds are clear.

[jaichind]

Another round of polls in which will now come in fast since the poll blackout will begin in a day or two.  These polls seems to indicate that the anti-DPP wave continues to build.

The shock of day was the pro-Blue UDN poll has the KMT's Han moving into a massive lead in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)

KMT               49(+17)
DPP               32(-2)
PFP rebel         2(+1)
ex-NP              1(-1)
Most likely this poll exaggerates the KMT Han's surge but it seems that the DPP is clearly at risk of losing Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) by a significant margin which would be a shock.




Pro-Blue Chinatimes poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) with key cross-tabs and change from early Oct
                Support           Pan-Blues        Independents
Ko           33.6(-8.0)      13.1(-12.9)          47.3(-11.3)
KMT        32.8(+5.6)      76.0(+11.6)        18.1(+7.5)
DPP         14.8(-0.4)

KMT's Ding got a large swing from Ko in his Pan-blue vote base.  What seems to have taken place was that the KMT Han's surge in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has also pushed up KMT support across the board, especially with the youth vote.  That threatened Ko the most as that is his base so he started to strike at Han.  But that merely polarized the Pan-Blue vote behind KMT's Ding in response.



Chinatimes also had a poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           28.7%
MKT           26.3%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           10.5%
KMT now moves into the lead over MKT.

[jaichind]

More polls comes out which are more muted on the anti-DPP wave.

Pro-Blue TVBS poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
                     poll       projection
KMT            48(-2)           55
DPP            34(+4)          45
DPP consolidates the Pan-Green vote.  TVBS projection now matches my current projection.


TVBS also came out with a poll for Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT            41(-3)           
DPP            39(+3)         
Taichung just had a fairly successful Expo which pushed up the DPP incumbents numbers.  Still he is behind his KMT opponent if terms of personal approval and his overall job approval went slightly down from prev poll.  TVBS, I guess, feels the race is to close to call to make a vote share projection.


Pro-Green Formosa Daily poll on Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has Ko's led cut but still substantial

KO      38.6 (-4.5)
KMT    27.1 (+2.3)
DPP      8.3 (-3.1)

This poll also picked up on the Pan-Blue consolidation behind KMT's Ding but also saw a counter-consolidation of independents behind Ko which limited the closing of the gap.
 


Ettoday which is mostly neutral and more of a second tier pollster came out with poll results of the 6 special municipalities 

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KO         38.4
KMT       36.8
DPP         7.6
Seems to match most pro-Blue pollsters

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT       39.9 
DPP       34.0
Seems to have it much closer than most pro-Blue pollsters and line up more with various third tier pro-Green pollsters (most of whom I view as more as DPP operatives than real pollsters) 

Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP       45.9
KMT       27.6
DPP is for sure ahead.  This type of lead seems beyond what the fundamentals justify

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT      45.4
DPP       31.7
KMT most likely is ahead.  Again, this type of lead seems beyond what the fundamentals justify

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP              36.6
KMT              19.7
pro-KMT indy 17.6
Pro-KMT independent seems much too strong as other polls seems to show his support falling and shifting toward the KMT candidate.

kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT           42.6
DPP            36.6
Seems to confirm most other pro-Blue polls with KMT taking a lead, and perhaps strong one.