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  Talk Elections
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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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Author Topic: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24  (Read 31896 times)
mvd10
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« Reply #100 on: June 27, 2018, 08:26:58 am »

I don't really know much about Taiwanese politics so I probably shouldn' comment on this but I always have the impression Asian right-wing parties are much more 'pro-industrial strategy'/pro-dirigisme (don't know how to call it) than most of their Western counterparts. So they're pro-business but not really pro-market. I believe Ha-Joon Chang said he'd actually support the right in South Korea even though he wrote books very critical of neoliberalism. Is this also true for the KMT?
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: June 27, 2018, 09:46:28 pm »

Are the KMT basically their version of the GOP or Conservative Party as a pro-business, free marketist party (I understand this is highly simplified and that every country has its nuances)? And their DPP is basically their Democratic Party?

In respect to policy, I understand while their health care model on paper looks efficient, I understand the system is overburdened, does Taiwan need to raise its taxes by a moderate amount to upgrade their health care system and make it less overwhelmed? Additionally, other than relations with the mainland, what are some other pressing issues for Taiwan?

Jaichind, who would you support and are there any policies you would like to be introduced, implemented or revamped?

The real difference between KMT and DPP are about the issue of identify.  KMT represents the Chinese identify and the DPP the Taiwanese identity.   Both mouth populist slogans, especially when in opposition but in reality KMT represents service and advanced industrial economic interests while the DPP represents the older industrial interests and landed class in rural areas.  This is not a coincidence.  The service and advanced industrial economic interests tend to benefit from economic integration with Mainland China while older industrial interests and landed class in rural areas tend to to be hurt by economic integration with Mainland China. 

Both KMT and DPP have done their share to expand the welfare state as part of populist schemes to win votes.  Of course both have worked on reform plans to cut costs of the welfare state given the overall aversion of Chinese societies to government debt.    The KMT is strong with the educated class tend to have a lot of support in public service workers which in turn triggers DPP to focus on public sector pension reform.  The DPP has a lot of support with rural farmers which triggers KMT to work on reform welfare payments to those sections.

Given the aversion to government debt the current system of national healthcare is in economic crisis and the current DPP regime is working on plans to reform the system and try to cut costs and increase premiums.     Understand that ROC also spends fairly low levels on defense given the PRC threat (and is really a free rider on USA's defense spending) and even then the fairly minimal welfare state it has built is not sustainable given the fairly low taxes and large size of the informal economy.

As for what policies I want.  I am a strong Chinese nationalist  so I am for Chinese reunification for identity reasons in addition to sound economic reasons.  To be far back in the 1980s I was a lukewarm supporter of Taiwan independence but that was more about my opposition to KMT laws that banned the expression of support for the Taiwanese identify.  Once those laws were removed I mostly reverted to my true Chinese ultra-nationalist self.

The current poor economic climate on ROC today stems from the fact that most wealth made by ROC business are routed abroad and not used to spur the domestic economy.     The reason for this are two fold.  First uncertainly over relationship with PRC and possible PRC invasion means that local wealth will find its way abroad.  Second the policy of promoting export which worked so well for the KMT in the 1960s-1990s period now holding the economy back with the Central Bank always looking to push down the currency to promote export but give wealth very little reason to try to stay.  As a result the local cost of living is fairly low but the consumer economy is not taking off as it should leaving a good section of the population in a lower middle class income trap.

The solution should be unification talks with the PRC.  We should be trading de jure unification for de facto autonomy.  A reasonable deal should be:
a) Union between Mainland China and Taiwan to form Federal Republic of China
b) Current situation on Taiwan Province stays EXACTLY the same as today except for any official usage of the word ROC (Republic of China) we instead use Federal Republic of China Taiwan Regional Government including keeping its armed forces.

I think the PRC would take this deal since economic problems would not lead to the overthrow of the CCP.  But if the PRC loses Taiwan and allows for a formal Taiwan Independence the CCP will over overthrown.  CCP knows that and putting to bed something that can lead to its overthrow and in fact pushing up defense spending would be a good deal for PRC. 

Of course doing this deal would lead to the destruction of DPP because that would pretty much blow up their entire reason for DPP to exist which is to protect an independent Taiwanese identity.
   
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jaichind
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« Reply #102 on: June 27, 2018, 10:09:31 pm »

It seems the KMT is bungling up a sure win in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) although it is not clear how it will work out.

See

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=220015.msg4853559#msg4853559

for a long writeup on the history of Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) politics since the 1990s.

With KMT incumbent Chiu (邱鏡淳) leaving office after two terms the election was headed to a 3 way race.  The DPP nominates Cheng(鄭朝方) who the son of Chiu's long time KMT rival Cheng(鄭永金).  KMT splinter MKT leader Shu (徐欣瑩)  who used to be a KMT MP is also running.   Former DPP MP and now KMT MP and whip Lin (林為洲) who beat Cheng(鄭永金) who ran for DPP in 2016 for MP was the front runner for the KMT and was expected to win the KMT "primary."

But it seems last minute KMT Chairman Wu decided not to go with a "primary" and that the KMT will draft a candidate.  Wu then went with Yang(楊文科).  It seems that Lin (林為洲) might not accept this and might run as an independent threatening to split the Pan-Blue vote 3 ways and could throw the race to DPP's   Cheng(鄭朝方) just like in 1997 when KMT was split (KMT Chiu (邱鏡淳) and KMT Cheng(鄭永金) ran against each other) and lost to DPP. 

There are several theories on why Wu did this.  One is  Lin (林為洲) coming from a DPP background was not acceptable to various pro-Blue local factions.  Worse  Lin (林為洲) is not a Hakka in a county that is mostly Hakka.  It is also said that Wu went with  Yang(楊文科) who he can control so he can use  Yang(楊文科) as a bargaining chip with  Shu (徐欣瑩) to work for a MKT merger back into KMT and for Shu (徐欣瑩) to run for KMT.

Anyway it is not clear that  Lin (林為洲) will actually bolt from KMT to run as an independent since it is unlikely without the KMT label he would win and risk losing is promising career as the KMT Parliamentary Whip.  Also even it comes to a 3 way split of the Pan-Blue vote   Shu (徐欣瑩) has a lot of appeal to Pan-Green voters and the election might turn into a Yang(楊文科) vs Shu (徐欣瑩)  battle with both Cheng(鄭朝方) and  Lin (林為洲), if he runs, being marginalized.  The main problem with Cheng(鄭朝方) is that he does not have the same appeal and connections his father has with local Pan-Blue factions and given his KMT background he might not appeal to the DPP vote in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).

One way or another the DPP better not win Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) or Wu will have a huge egg on his face and risks losing his job if the KMT has a mediocre election night in Nov 2018.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #103 on: June 27, 2018, 11:37:06 pm »

I think it's clear that any genuinely equitable political solution has long gone, if only because of the sheer disparity in economic and military strength. If there is a peaceful political solution, it will be on Beijing's terms with a few token concessions that give Taiwan slightly more autonomy than the ex-European colonies.
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jaichind
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« Reply #104 on: June 29, 2018, 07:37:49 am »

I think it's clear that any genuinely equitable political solution has long gone, if only because of the sheer disparity in economic and military strength. If there is a peaceful political solution, it will be on Beijing's terms with a few token concessions that give Taiwan slightly more autonomy than the ex-European colonies.

In theory yes.  Of course some unique factors in the KMT and DPP would make the ROC punch above its weight when it comes down to reunification talks.  The KMT is viewed as the "older brother" of the CCP which gives it a physiological edge when it unification talks with the CCP.  The DPP with with pro-Independence fringe could end up paying the "mad dog"  role (like if you push us to far we will just ignore the USA get nuclear weapons) in to apply pressure on the CCP to compromise.  If the DPP does not exist the KMT will almost have to invent the DPP as the bad cop. 

None of this would stop the process of unification on the long run as long as the PRC holds together but will give us on the ROC a negotiation edge beyond what is justified given our economic-military strength.
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: June 30, 2018, 02:06:59 pm »
« Edited: June 30, 2018, 03:13:10 pm by jaichind »

My current projection on results given the known candidates
Last few weeks have been generally bad for the pan-Greens in terms of new cycle.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [I assume DPP's Lu will not run and DPP's Su will run in Tainan]
KMT         44%
Ko           35%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         15.5%
KMT rebel  1.5%
SDP           1%     (Pan-Green)
KMT rebel   1%
TIP            0.5% (radical independence)
Indys        1.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         46.5%
Ind.           0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          44%
KMT          36%
DPP rebel    9%
Ind.            6%  (pro-Blue)
TSU rebel    4%
Ind.            1%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          51%
KMT         47%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
KMT rebel  1%  (radical re-unification)


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           52%
KMT           48%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     3%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           36%
DPP           32%
MKT           32%  (KMT splinter)


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            49%
KMT           45%
Ind.            6%  (pro-Green)


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             62%
pro-DPP Ind  35.5%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             51%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      2.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              55%
KMT              45%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              49%
KMT             45%
DPP rebel       6%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             49%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      5%
Indys            2%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            43%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            54%
DPP             46%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            67%
DPP             33%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%
Indys            1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Blue   50.5%
Pan-Green 49.1%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.4%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #106 on: July 03, 2018, 07:07:26 pm »

Latest TVBS (pro-Blue) poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).

Despite KMT bungling the DPP does not seem to be benefiting.  

If KMT continues with Yang(楊文科) as its candidate he will narrowly lose to MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩).

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)      31
KMT Yang(楊文科)     27
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)    9


If the KMT switches back to MP Lin(林為洲) as its candidate then Lin(林為洲) is ahead

KMT Lin(林為洲)       37
MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)      29
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)    8


If Lin(林為洲) runs as a KMT rebel then it is MKT's advantage

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)        27
KMT rebel Lin(林為洲) 24
KMT Yang(楊文科)       20
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)      9


It seems if this poll is believed that KMT splinter MKT leader Hsu(徐欣瑩) has mostly capture pan-Green support as the anti-KMT alternative.  At this stage with Yang(楊文科) not having starting his campaign his level of support is mostly under-estimated, especially with the Hakka majority.  But it seems that this election might end with DPP's Cheng(鄭朝方) marginalization and MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) becoming the de facto Green candidate.  

BTW, note the MKT's party symbol is nearly identical to the KMT's symbol.

Sorts of reminds me of the 2010 FL Senate race where GOP rebel Charlie Crist  toward the end became the de facto Dem candidate as the main challenger to GOP's Rubio.
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Octosteel
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« Reply #107 on: July 03, 2018, 11:09:51 pm »

Is Hsu a devoted MKT person or using the party as an opportunistic vehicle? It's just weird to imagine the MKT winning everything although it's certainly a welcome surprise.
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jaichind
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« Reply #108 on: July 04, 2018, 05:06:43 am »

Is Hsu a devoted MKT person or using the party as an opportunistic vehicle? It's just weird to imagine the MKT winning everything although it's certainly a welcome surprise.

Well,  Hsu(徐欣瑩) is the founder and leader of the MKT.  MKT is only really relevant  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).  In 2008 Hsu(徐欣瑩) left the KMT and ran with DPP support against the official KMT candidate  Chiu (邱鏡淳) (current KMT county magistrate) in the Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) legislative seat.  She failed in a very strong KMT year.  She later rejoined the KMT and won the 2012 Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) legislative race as the KMT candidate.  In 2015 she broke from the KMT again and formed the MKT.  She was going to run for her legislative seat as the MKT candidate but was picked by KMT splinter PFP's Soong as his VP candidate in the 2016 Prez election. 

MKT is really a Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) local party.  There are always all sorts of talks about  Hsu(徐欣瑩) being in talks with the KMT to return to the KMT as the leader of the Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) KMT.  But that seems to have the opposition of a lot of the KMT local factions.   But in the meantime given the weakness of the DPP  Hsu(徐欣瑩) seems to have eaten into the DPP vote as an alternative to the KMT in  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14).
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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: July 04, 2018, 08:49:46 pm »

A picture making the round of ROC political discussion boards



It has "Mrs Xi (PRC Xi's wife)" "Mrs Kim(DPRK Kim's wife" and "Miss Tsai (ROC Prez Tsai)"

<The Chinese language does not have the concept of "Ms", only "Miss" or "Mrs".  In theory there is which is 女士 but it is rarely used and only there because the rise of the usage of "Ms" in the English speaking world>

My comment is: "Guess who is the Communist?"
The comment on the picture is "Times have changed,  Communist Bandits do not look like Communist Bandits anymore, and Those who are not Communist Bandits now look like Communist Bandits"
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: July 24, 2018, 06:29:31 am »

In  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14), it seems KMT MP Lin(林為洲) will bolt from the KMT and run as an independent making it a 4 way race.    He also has the support of former DPP county magistrate Lin(林光華) mostly based on the Lin Clan loyalty.    So both Lin(林為洲) and MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) will appeal to both pan-Blue and pan-Green voters.   With Lin(林為洲) in the race to further split the KMT vote I suspect MKT's Hsu(徐欣瑩) is now the front runner although I think all 4 candidates (MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩), KMT rebel Lin(林為洲), KMT Yang(楊文科),DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)) will get at least (or close to it) 20% of the vote.  This will be a fun 4 way race.
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jaichind
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« Reply #111 on: July 24, 2018, 07:00:10 am »

TVBS (pro-Blue) came out with polls in the 6 special municipalities.


Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) (change from  May)
Pro-Green Ind Ko(柯文哲)   40 (+9)
KMT Ding(丁守中)              30 (-3)
DPP Yao(姚文智)                11 (-2)
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +9)

Ko re-takes the lead although name recognition for Ding and Yao seem fairly low compared to Ko so Ko's lead seems artificial until the campaign really takes off.



New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) (change from June)
KMT Ho(侯友宜)    48 (--)
DPP su(蘇貞昌)     29 (-2)
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +2)

Both candidates are well known so most likely this is the race although it is clear that DPP will do better than this poll implies.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP Cheng(鄭文燦)  56
KMT Chen(陳學聖)   20
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +5)

DPP incumbent Cheng(鄭文燦) has a pretty positive record and will cruise to re-election.  Chen's name ID is fairly low and given the KMT base the race will be a lot closer than this poll would suggest especially when ROC polls tend to, in a non-polarized election, overestimate the incumbent running for re-election which is correlated to overestimation of the candidate with greater name recognition.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT Lu(盧秀燕)    39
DPP Lin(林佳龍)    33
Blue vs Green ID (Blue +1)

DPP Incumbent Lin in a tight race.  Given the incumbent is behind in the polls this does not look good for Lin.  Lu's main problem is that in rural Taichung where the KMT Black and Red factions still have some influence she is having a hard time getting these KMT factions to be actively backing her.  Lin could still get these KMT local factions to back him with the right incentives.


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP Chen(陳其邁)    40
KMT Han(韓國瑜)     32
Blue vs Green ID (Green +9)

Han is keeping it close which is a significant accomplishment.  Han might be able to get this race to be within the lower single digits.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP Huang(黃偉哲)            41
KMT Gao(高思博)               15
DPP rebel Su(蘇煥智)           8
Pan Blue Indy Lin(林義豐)    7  (fairly strong with youth and internet crowd)
Pan Blue Indy Chen(陳子敬) 4
TSU rebel Shu(許忠信)         3  (back by former DPP Prez Chen)
Blue vs Green ID (Green +12)

Gao has fairly low name recognition so once the election campaign picks up he will gain more support.  If Chen and Shu are polling 4 and 3 at this stage then they will most likely end up with less than 2$ of the vote each.   Huang looks set to win by a wide margin although Su is a threat to take a bunch of pan-Green votes and reduce the DPP winning margin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: July 25, 2018, 07:29:06 am »
« Edited: July 25, 2018, 07:41:02 am by jaichind »

The "markers" for the 2020 Prez election front-runners in this election are the following:

1) For the KMT if
a) KMT only wins  New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) then Wu is out as KMT chairman ASAP and Chu becomes the KMT chairman and the KMT candidate in 2020 especially if KMT does well in Chu's New Taipei City(新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) election.
b) KMT wins one of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) or Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).  Wu stays on as KMT chairman but the 2020 KMT nomination will become a Wu vs Chu fight where it is a tossup since Wu has the party machinery and Chu is more popular with the KMT grassroots.  
c) KMT wins both Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0). Wu becomes the KMT Prez candidate in 2020

Of course there is the issue of Ma.  Ex-KMT Prez Ma has been indicted for a 2005 (when Ma was KMT Chairman) sale of KMT owned media companies.  The prosecution claims that Ma sold those assets below market value "to benefit others."  But main issue here is there are no proof or evidence that Ma personally got a dime out of this deal.  So there is a perception, especially among KMT voters, that this is a political motivated trumped up charge.  This sympathy factor means that if Ma were to choose to run in the KMT "primary" for 2020 there is not much Wu or Chu can do to stop him.

2) For DPP Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  is clearly lost and could end up being a catastrophic result.  If DPP holds  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then Tsai will avoid a "Primary" challenge even, as expected, the DPP will lose a few counties.   If DPP loses Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then there will be internal pressure in the DPP to dump Tsai.  Most likely she can suppress this rebellion since the main alternative to Tsai is PM Lai of the New Tide faction which inside the Tsai camp as her PM.

Tsai has to balance several factors.  She has to a) Make sure she avoids an internal "Primary" challenge b) Try to avoid a Ko run in 2020 c) Make sure the KMT candidate is Wu who poll the worst among the possible KMT candidate.  Problem is these goals are contradictory.  

If DPP does "too well" then Wu is out as KMT and Tsai will get Chu which is a tougher challenger in 2020.   If DPP does too poorly then Tsai faces a DPP  "primary challenge."   If Tsai helps Ko win in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) to avoid a Ko 2020 run then KMT defeat in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) could mean Wu is out and Tsai get Chu.

It seems Tsai's strategy was to de facto back Ko in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  so he wins and does not run in 2020 while having Su run in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)  to keep it close so the KMT could not focus on Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).   DPP power-brokers rejected this forced Tsai to nominate a DPP candidate which increased the chances of a Ko run.  At this stage the best game theory result for Tsai is for KMT to win in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and Ko to get a poor result while DPP holds Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) so she will avoid any "Primary" challenge.  Not sure things will work out that way.

The good news for Tsai is while it is hard for her to achieve all 3 goals simultaneously it is unlikely she will fail on all 3.  Meaning I cannot see a way for here to a) face a internal "primary" challenge and b) have Ko run in 2020 and c) KMT run someone other than Wu. 

3) With the DPP fielding a candidate in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ko is likely to run for Prez in 2020 if he gets above 40% of the vote regardless if he wins or not.  Talk of a Ko run in 2020 actually helps him in the Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) election since it keeps the media attention on him and sucking the media air out of KMT Ding(丁守中) and DPP Yao(姚文智).  The Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) result will most likely be either be

Ko     40%
KMT   35%
DPP   20%
Others 5%

Where DPP revives and recaptures some of the DPP base but Ko then is able to attract Blue voters since Ko is THE GREEN candidate

OR

KMT   45%
Ko     40%
DPP   10%
Others 5%

Where DPP falls apart which makes Ko THE GREEN candidate and the Blue vote consolidates around KMT's Ding as a result.

Either way Ko is likely to be above 40% and then likely to run in 2020.  The way to stop Ko from running is a ultra-strong DPP comeback

KMT   40%
DPP   30%
Ko     25%
Others 5%

Where DPP take back almost all of its core base leaving Ko with just the independent vote.   Tsai/DPP was hoping for this when they nominated a candidate.  This seems unlikely at this stage.

The CW seems to be that the weaker DPP is the better it is for Ko.  Up to a point that is true as the way to kill off Ko is for DPP to do very well.  But my take is that if DPP does poorly then Ko will be viewed as the de facto DPP candidate and the larger Pan-Blue vote in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) will consolidate around KMT's Ding.  I guess if DPP then falls to 5% or less that will help Ko in last minute tactical voting but even then a outright Green vs Blue showdown in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) in a neutral or slightly pro-Blue should end with a KMT victory.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #113 on: July 26, 2018, 10:11:51 am »

I don't really know much about Taiwanese politics so I probably shouldn' comment on this but I always have the impression Asian right-wing parties are much more 'pro-industrial strategy'/pro-dirigisme (don't know how to call it) than most of their Western counterparts. So they're pro-business but not really pro-market. I believe Ha-Joon Chang said he'd actually support the right in South Korea even though he wrote books very critical of neoliberalism. Is this also true for the KMT?

One salient fact: we had a full blown Maoist join Atlas once, and he agreed with jaichind (pretty much an outrageous stereotype of a rich capitalist) to the letter in regards to Taiwan.
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« Reply #114 on: July 26, 2018, 10:52:53 am »

I don't really know much about Taiwanese politics so I probably shouldn' comment on this but I always have the impression Asian right-wing parties are much more 'pro-industrial strategy'/pro-dirigisme (don't know how to call it) than most of their Western counterparts. So they're pro-business but not really pro-market. I believe Ha-Joon Chang said he'd actually support the right in South Korea even though he wrote books very critical of neoliberalism. Is this also true for the KMT?

One salient fact: we had a full blown Maoist join Atlas once, and he agreed with jaichind (pretty much an outrageous stereotype of a rich capitalist) to the letter in regards to Taiwan.

I'm pretty sure I agree with jaichind in regards to Taiwan.
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« Reply #115 on: July 27, 2018, 07:34:20 pm »

Ettoday poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) after KMT MP Lin(林為洲) broke from the KMT to run as an independent (diff from June)

MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩)         27.5% (+7.8%)
KMT Yang(楊文科)        23.6% (-2.7%)
KMT rebel Lin(林為洲)  18.1%
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)       6.5% (-3.2%)



With both Hsu and Lin pulling in DPP votes.  I think in the end DPP Cheng(鄭朝方) should get at least 20% of the vote and most likely end up third or even second place.  MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩) seems in a good position to win.
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« Reply #116 on: July 31, 2018, 05:56:45 am »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 09:52:21 am by jaichind »

Pro-DPP (but no necessary pro-Tsai) New Taiwan national policy think tank came out with a new poll with some 2020 Prez trial heats.   This time they put Ma in as well.

It has (changes are vs Jan 2018 results from the same poll)

Prez Tsai approval/disapproval 31.1 (+0.4)/54.8(+3.7)
PM Lai approval/disapproval 40.6(-3.4)/44.8(+9.7)

Support Tsai's reelection Yes/No 33.0/57.7
Support Ko entering into 2020 race Yes/No 39.8/51.6
Support Ma entering into 2020 race Yes/No 24.3/65.1
Ma innocent/guilty of new charges related to sale of KMT assets in 2007 44.0/40.8

2020 DPP "primary" Tsai 23.4 (-1.0) Lai 48.6 (+6.3)
 
2020 Prez heats

Tsai(DPP)  46.2(+0.7)
Wu(KMT)  30.8(+1.2)

Tsai(DPP)  36.3(-1.9)
Chu(KMT)  47.8(+3.9)

Tsai(DPP)  39.5
Ma(KMT)   40.8

Lai(DPP)   58.0(+0.3)
Wu(KMT)  22.7(+0.6)

Lai(DPP)   46.5(-1.4)
Chu(KMT) 41.6(+6.6)

Lai(DPP)   50.8
Ma(KMT)  35.3

Tsai(DPP)  27.1(-4.5)
Wu(KMT)  18.3(+0.5)
Ko(Ind)     40.3(+3.7)

Tsai(DPP)  25.3(-3.7)
Chu(KMT)  31.3(+1.5)
Ko(Ind)     32.4(+2.4)

Tsai(DPP)  25.9
Ma(KMT)   27.8
Ko(Ind)     33.8


Lai(DPP)   36.8(-7.8 )
Wu(KMT)  15.5(-0.6)
Ko(Ind)    34.3(+7.7)

Lai(DPP)   33.6(-7.1)
Chu(KMT) 29.7(+1.9)
Ko(Ind)     28.2(+6.2)

Lai(DPP)   35.6
Ma(KMT)  24.3
Ko(Ind)    29.2

This seems to indicate that while Lai is still easily the strongest of DPP candidates his star has waned while Ko's level of support has surged.  Ma not polling so well and Chu is clearly KMT's best shot.  It is unlikely that Lai would be the DPP candidate.  For DPP to swap out Tsai and put in Lai is to admit that the DPP regime was a failure.

Same poll has vote for 2018 Mayor/County magistrate which has

DPP  38.6
KMT  29.5
Indy  10.5 (mostly Ko I guess)
MKT   0.4

Vote for City/County assembly member

KMT 29.9
DPP  22.9
Indy  3.6
NPP   2.5
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« Reply #117 on: July 31, 2018, 08:43:50 am »

Looking at the New Taiwan national policy think tank poll breakdown gives one a good sense of demographic breakdown between Blues and Greens.   

If you look at the poll result of

Tsai(DPP)  39.5
Ma(KMT)   40.8

which is a near tie and then look at breakdown by gender and education you get

                Tsai(DPP)     Ma(KMT)
Men            44.6             35.1
Women       34.6              46.4

where women favor the Right Blue bloc and men favor the Left Green bloc despite Tsai being a women herself.

If you look it by education
                                       
                                     Tsai(DPP)     Ma(KMT)
Elementary school              45.6            22.1
Middle school                     52.3            30.6
High school                        33.6            50.0
Vocation school                  30.6            53.3
College                              39.7            41.4

Where Tsai is strong among lower educated population which makes up the KMT base.  Ma is stronger in higher educated population but ties Tsai with college educated voters.  Tsai does have unique appeal to the progressive liberal urban college educated voters beyond the DPP based whom have voted mostly KMT since 2000.
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« Reply #118 on: August 01, 2018, 04:57:27 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 05:01:32 pm by jaichind »

The most recent Formosa (pro-DPP but somewhat negative on Tsai) poll has all sorts of interesting data.

It has Tsai approval/disapproval 26.1(+0.3)/61.7(-0.6) [change from June]

It also has "If Mainland China makes the condition that we accept One China Principle [There is One China and Taiwan is part of that One China even if both sides might disagree who represents that One China] should we do so" Yes/No 43.3/36.7.  In 2017 it was Yes/No 36.2/47.2 so there has been a shift toward more compromise with PRC in order to start talks.



It also asks "Who is more responsible for bad relationship between Mainland and Taiwan": Taiwan 35.0 Mainland China 29.3.  In 2017 it was Taiwan 33.4 Mainland 31.3.  So there has been a sift toward more negativity toward the Tsai regime for bad current Mainland-Taiwan conflict.



It also asks about "Do you trust Prez Tsai" which has it at Yes/No 30.6/52.2

Tsai falling to 30s consistently by early 2018

The poll points out that the same poll (or its ancestor pollsters)  for Prez Ma in the 2004 to 2018 period.

Around the time of Ma's reelection in early 2012 he was even on this question Ma only got to the 30s in terms of trust in his 5th year of his Presidency in late 2012.  2013-2016 period was a disaster for the Ma KMT administration and trust in Ma fell to 20s by 2013-2016 and only got to 30s as he left office.  Now he is back to even.

DPP Prez Chen had the same pattern although the poll only started in 2004 which is the start of his second term

Around the time of Chen reelection in 2004 it was even on this question.  Chen got to 30s (in fact 20s) in terms of trust only in 2005 which is 5th year of his term.  It stayed in the 20s until he left office and fell to 5.9 in late 2008 right after he left office when he was indicted and then convicted for corruption.   As time passed on even Chen is now back in the low 20s despite still being out on medical parole and in theory still serving his prison term of his conviction.

Tsai fell to 30s in terms of trust in her second year (early 2018) which is a record.


The poll asks for approval of KMT and DPP and then based on  that it constructed a specturm of Blue abd Green voters.  
 

G1 G2 G3 are pro-KMT voters with G1 being most pro-Blue.  G7 G8 G9 are pro-DPP voters with G9 being the most pro-Green.   It has the Blue/Green split being 31.5/24.7.
G4 voters seem to approve of both Blue and Greens, G5 does not seem engaged and most likely are non voters with G6 being against both Blues and Greens.

A map of how each tranche of voters  trust several key politicians has
 

Brown is Taipei mayor Ko, Deep Green is Prez Tsai, Light Green is PM Lai, Dotted Green is former DPP Prez Chen, Dark Blue is New Taipei City mayor and 2016 KMT Prez candidate Chu, and Dotted Blue is former KMT Prez Ma.

The map is not a surprise.  Blue voters trust Chen and Ma and not Tsai Lai and Chen and vice versa with Green voters.  The map clearly shows Chu is more popular than Ma while Lai is more popular than Tsai.  Despite being a convicted criminal for corruption the Deep Green still back and trust Chen.

Ko seems to enjoy trust with Light Blue and Light Green as well independents that are hostile  to both Blue and Green blocs.  This is this the power of Ko that he can appeal to all 3 camps.  

Main message is the same.  KMT should nominate Chen in 2020 while DPP ideally should have Lai run but that might be hard given Tsai is the incumbent.  For Ko 2020 is his chance and most likely he will take it.

I suspect 2020 will be similar to USA 1992 with Bush vs Clinton vs Perot with Ko playing the role of Perot without that episode of Perot dropping out and then coming back.  If it was not for that Perot had a chance to go above 30% of the vote and made a real 3 way race.
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« Reply #119 on: August 06, 2018, 06:38:34 am »

Chinatimes (pro-Blue although mostly anti KMT Chairman Wu and somewhat positive on Ko) poll for 2020 Prez race looks ugly for DPP.



Support for Ko to run for Prez in 2020 if he were to win re-election as mayor of Taipei Support/Do not Support 37.7/35.7

3 way race (Chinatimes is so negative on Wu they are not bothering polling him)
Ind(Ko)    31.5
KMT(Chu) 26.9
DPP (Tsai) 12.1

Ind(Ko)     32.0
KMT(Chu)  26.7
DPP(Lai)    15.4

Where Lai does not do that much better than Tsai.

The Ko phenomenon is mostly a function of the fact that the Tsai DPP regime is imploding (to be fair only to be confirmed in the 2018 elections) 2 years into their administration.  Chen DPP regime only started to implode in 2005 and Ma KMT regime only started to implode in 2013 both in the 5th year of their administration.  Lee KMT regime started its meltdown in 1997 (although Lee and KMT made a short term comeback in the 1998 election cycle) which is its 7th since Lee was elected on his own in 1990.  In all those other cases the mainstream opposition party (DPP or KMT) was in a position to pick up support lost by the discredited ruling regime.  Problem for KMT is the DPP implosion came too quickly and the voter population's poor memories of 2013-2016 are still fresh.  Also having a fairly unpopular leader such was Wu (who to be fair is a good backroom operator) means that support lost by DPP will not flow to the KMT.  Instead it seems to have flowed to Ko.

The risk for Ko is that he gets labeled by the KMT as the "de facto" Green candidate to consolidate the Blue vote behind the KMT even as Ko needs to gobble up the Green vote to have a chance in 2018 Taipei mayor race as well as a hypothetical 2020 Prez race.  So Ko's ground war is about getting pro-DPP  grassroots organizations to come over to him and Ko's air war is mostly about attacking the DPP Tsai regime to present himself as NOT GREEN so he can scoop up some Light Blue vote.  We will see later this year if this conflicting strategies causes problems for Ko.
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« Reply #120 on: August 17, 2018, 11:26:01 am »

With around 100 days to election both KMT and DPP came out with their ratings of the Mayor and county magistrate elections.  I left out the Fujian counties since they are going to the Blue camp no matter what.
                                                                 KMT rating                    DPP rating
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)                     Tossup                    DPP behind
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)        KMT well ahead               Tossup
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)               KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)          KMT slightly ahead      DPP slightly ahead
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)             KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)            Tossup                  DPP well ahead
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)               KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)           KMT well ahead              Tossup
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)           Tossup                     DPP behind
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)                KMT behind              DPP well ahead
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)          KMT well ahead            DPP behind
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)  KMT slightly ahead            Tossup
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)             KMT well ahead           DPP behind
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)              Tossup                   DPP well ahead
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)            KMT behind               DPP well ahead
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)                 KMT well ahead              Tossup
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)             KMT behind               DPP well ahead
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)     KMT slightly ahead           Tossup
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)        KMT well ahead             DPP behind
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)          KMT well ahead             DPP behind

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) it is mostly Ko vs KMT where Ko seems to be ahead even as the KMT claims that it is a Tossup and DPP is mostly out of the game.

In Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) is is mostly a KMT vs MKT battle with MKT most likely ahead even though the KMT rate as "Tossup" and DPP seems to be out of the game.

DPP is not realistic in calling New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) "Tossup" when it is clear that KMT is ahead.

KMT's rating of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  as "Tossup" is not realistic even though it is close and could go KMT in a wave year.

KMT and DPP seems to agreed that Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) are close.

KMT rating of Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)  of "Tossup" is interesting.   In theory they are not realistic since the DPP clearly has the edge.  On the other hand there are all sort of rumors large scale DPP infighting in Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) which could make the race a lot closer.

DPP claim that Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)  is a "Tossup" is not realistic but I agree part of the reason is because of DPP infighting which if they can settle could make the race a lot closer.

Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) is very close this year with the DPP running a very strong candidate and even the KMT acknowledge the threat.

DPP rating Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)  as "Tossup" is not realistic but I guess they are gambling the  KMT rebel taking more KMT votes than expected.
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jaichind
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« Reply #121 on: August 21, 2018, 06:30:51 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2018, 06:42:38 am by jaichind »

One 黃偉展 (Huang) who is a DPP candidate in a multi-member district for City council of Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) had to drop out over a sex scandal with some very funny details.

黃偉展 (Huang) who is currently a Zone head and a member of the New Tide faction campaign ad with DPP ex-mayor of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) New Tide leader Chen Ju.


The sex scandal blew up when a women who is on 黃偉展 (Huang) 's campaign staff and claims to be 黃偉展 (Huang)'s "Mistress #5" came out to expose 黃偉展 (Huang) slimy campaign tactics after a falling out.



"MIstriss #5" said that 黃偉展 (Huang)  wanted her to
1) start an affair with another DPP rival candidate in the same district and then go public with the affiar
2) get into a car accident with another women DPP rival candidate who is known drunk driver in order to force the police to charge the rival DPP candidate with drunk driving in the aftermath of the accident

"Mistress #5" also said that 黃偉展 (Huang) pressured "Mistress #4" to have an abortion in order to not hurt his political career.

"Mistress #5" also said that  黃偉展 (Huang) indicated that he is running for City Council only to further his business operations on Mainland China and he indicated that a lot of DPP City Council members have large and significant business operations on Mainland China based on the need of the local CCP to "buy influence" with the DPP at the local level for political mileage for the CCP in the future.

"Mistress #5" also came out with a public announcement that she has no intention of committing suicide and that if anything were to happen to her it is the result of foul play.

At first 黃偉展 (Huang) held a press conference with his wife where he did not deny the allegations of "Mistress #5" but said his statements to her were "taken out of context" but does admit to having several affairs.  At the press conference his wife forgave him and backed him continuing him staying in the race.


After this pressure from DPP high command finally forced 黃偉展 (Huang) to drop out of the race.

This sort of stuff is fairly standard in multi-member district races where both the KMT and DPP have several candidates and all of them have good reason to back-stab each other since their intra-party rival's votes are transferable to then.  Candidates of both DPP and KMT have been known for all sorts of dirty tricks against their so called comrades in these sort of races, especially at the local level.
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« Reply #122 on: September 03, 2018, 04:35:31 pm »

The deadline to register was a couple of days ago.  The KMT managed to convince a bunch of rebels not to contest (Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)) but gained new rebels (Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)).  Both the KMT and DPP will have some time to convince some of their rebels to drop out.  Based on the current list of candidates my most recent projections are:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [I assume DPP's Lu will not run and DPP's Su will run in Tainan]
KMT         43%
Ko           42%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         12%
KMT rebel  2.5%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         52%
KMT         41%
KMT rebel  6.5%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          45%
KMT          40%
DPP rebel    7%
TSU rebel    4%
KMT rebel   2%
DPP rebel    2%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          51%
KMT         48%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           52%
DPP            45%
KMT rebel     2%
Indys           1%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           37%
MKT           33.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           29%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            50%
KMT           43%
Ind.            5.5%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1.5%

Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             62%
pro-DPP Ind  30%
DPP rebel       5.5%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             50%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      2.5% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      1%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              51%
KMT              47%
DPP rebel       1.5%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              50%
KMT             43%
DPP rebel       6%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             45%
KMT rebel      6%
Ind.              1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             56%
KMT            43.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            66%
DPP             33%
Ind.              1%

Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      3%
Indys            2%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Blue   50.4%
Pan-Green 49.3%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #123 on: September 03, 2018, 04:40:06 pm »

The latest government Mainland Affairs Council poll has Unification-Independence split at 17.1%-17.7% which is the smallest pro-Independence lead over Unification since 2002.  Once you allocate people that are open to unification (decided on unification-independence later) and would de facto support independence (status quo on a permanent basis) you get the most pro-unification result since 2007. 

This is not that big of a surprise.  During KMT rule pro-independence support usually surges and during DPP rule pro-unification support surges.
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jaichind
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« Reply #124 on: September 17, 2018, 06:51:15 am »

2 Months before the election TVBS (pro-Blue) came out with its latest polls in the 6 special municipalities.  Most of the polls are converging toward results similar to what I am predicting and also toward fundamentals assuming that it is a slight anti-DPP wave.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
Ko's lead down to 5% as KMT's Ding gains ground as I expected.  I expect this race to be neck-to-neck by election day with Ding with a slight edge.
 


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
DPP's Su gains a bit of ground and should gain more ground but not enough to stop a solid KMT victory



Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP's Cheng with a solid lead.  The KMT rebel Yang at 6% and mostly at the expense of KMT's lackluster Chen.  The pro-KMT fundamentals, although weakening, of this race should mean what Cheng polls at this stage is going to be his vote share, which is around 53%.  Rest goes to the pan-Blue bloc.  Still a solid victory in such a historically strong KMT area.



Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
DPP's Lin gains a bit of ground.  This election was always going to be neck-to-neck with KMT with a tiny edge only because of the anti-DPP tide



kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT's Han is running a strong race in this open seat against DPP's Chen (who is also suppose to be a strong candidate).  But the DPP lead is down to 4% and election night could deliver a shocking victory to KMT's Han or at least a very narrow defeat. 



Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP's Huang is losing ground as are the two pan-Green rebels (Su and Shu which fell to 6% and 3% respectively).  Pro-KMT independent Chen dropped out of the race and most of his support went to the other pro-KMT independent Lin who surged to 13% from 7% two months ago.  KMT's Gao has a shot making this a close race if he could get Lin's vote to come over to him.  I suspect that is most likely going to be the case but Gao is running out of time to make this happen in time to make him a viable candidate to make this a close race despite clear pan-Green and DPP weakness.
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