India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana
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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana  (Read 46034 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #350 on: December 07, 2018, 03:18:21 PM »

Chhattisgarh exit poll projection calculation

It is this chart plus Today's Chanakya


                           BJP     INC   OTH
Republic TV           44      40       6
Timex Now-CNX    46       35      9
Republic C Voter    40      45       5
ABP News-CSDS    52      35      3
News Nation          40      42      8
India News            43      40      7
India-CNX             46      35      9
News24                36      50      4
India Today-Axis    25      59      6
Today's Chanakya  36      50      4
----------------------------------------------
Avg                      41     43       6 (tiny INC lead)

Since Today's Chanakya  does not seem to show is normal pro-BJP bias we do a straight average.

Now lets look at pre-election polls done by pollster that have exit polls

                          BJP   INC     OTH
ABP News-CSDS    56    25        9   -> exit poll somewhat more pro-INC
Cvoter                  43    41        6   -> exit poll somewhat more pro-INC
India-CNX             50    30      10   -> exit poll somewhat more pro-INC
News Nation          46    39       5   -> exit poll more pro-INC

The average of these 4 pre-election polls are
BJP  49  INC  34   OTH 7
The average of these 4 exit polls are
BJP  45  INC  39 OTH 6

Significant momentum toward INC.  So I will selection the average of 2nd and 3rd best for INC which is
INC 50 BJP 36 OTH 4

Now, since this is a defeat of the incumbent I will ad some seats from BJP to INC based on my view of low elasticity of the state which is
INC 52 BJP 34 OTH 4

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Chhattisgarh is
INC    52
BJP    34
OTH     4
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: December 07, 2018, 03:43:39 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2018, 06:33:22 PM by jaichind »

Rajasthan exit poll projection calculation

It is this chart plus Today's Chanakya

 
                           BJP     INC   OTH
Republic TV            93     91      15
Timex Now-CNX     85     105      9
Republic C Voter     58    134       7
ABP News-CSDS     83     101    15
First India Raja.      67     112    20
News Nation           80    112      7
India-CNX             85     105       9
News24                75      115      9
News Nation          91     101       7
India Today-Axis    63     129       7
Today's Chanakya  68     123       7
----------------------------------------------
Avg                      77    112      10

Since Today's Chanakya  does not seem to show is normal pro-BJP bias we do a straight average.

Now lets look at pre-election polls done by pollster that have exit polls

                          BJP   INC     OTH
ABP News-C Voter  58  135        6   -> exit poll a wash
India-CNX             75   115       9   -> exit poll somewhat more pro-BJP
News Nation          73  115      11   -> exit poll slightly more pro-BJP

The average of these 3 pre-election polls are
BJP 69 INC 122 OTH 8
The average of these 3 exit polls are
BJP  74  INC 117 OTH 8

So the momentum is with BJP.  So I will selection the average of 2nd and 3rd best for BJP which is
INC 103 BJP 88 OTH 8

Now, since this is a defeat of the incumbent I will add some seats from BJP to INC based on my view of high elasticity of the state which is
INC 121 BJP 70 OTH 8

I think BJP could have been beaten down to below 50 seats in a landslide.  But it seems last minute momentum tuned it into a simple INC victory but no landslide.

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Rajasthan is
INC   121
BJP     70
OTH     8
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jaichind
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« Reply #352 on: December 07, 2018, 04:02:15 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2018, 07:29:20 PM by jaichind »

Telangana exit poll projection which is this chart


                           TRS    INC+   BJP   OTH
Republic TV            58     45       5       11
Timex Now-CNX      66    37        7       9
TV9 Telegu             79     29        2       9
Republic C Voter     55     53        5       6
News Nation           55     53       3        8
TV9-CPS                87     21        2       9
India News            57     46        6      10
----------------------------------------------
Avg                      65     40        4       9

There was only 1 per-poll survey by C-Voter which was INC+ 64 TRS 42 BJP+ 4 OTH 9.  So there seems to be momentum toward TRS even though the nature of the evidence is fairly thin.  As such I will go with the average of the 2rd and 3rd best TRS poll which is TRS 72 INC+ 33 BJP 5 OTH 9.  Since this is not a defeat of the incumbent there are no adjustments needed.  

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Telangana is
TRS                      72
INC-TDP-TJS-CPI   33
BJP                       5
OTH                      9
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: December 07, 2018, 07:30:47 PM »

Mizoram exit polls



Most likely these exit poll overstate INC position with BJP ally MNF most likely gaining a majority on his own.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: December 07, 2018, 07:40:35 PM »

These projections seems mostly inline with what I had expected except for Telangana.  In Telangana I thought that TRS could win a majority but most likly only a thin one but these exit polls seems to indicate the strong likelihood that TRS will win a significant majority. 

If TRS pulls this off then it is most because it played the Muslim-AIMIM-BJP card well.  TRS had expected an easy victory on the premise that the a good chunk of the Telangana vote was with TRS based on it getting credit for the creation of Telangana plus its now larger organized clientelist roots and that the opposition was splintered.  These plan were unhinged when the INC-TDP formed and grand alliance and got CPI and TJS on board.  INC also planned on pinning TRS as a de facto ally of the BJP and bank the Muslim vote.

TRS counted with forming an tactical alliance with AIMIM and then had AIMIM provoke a war of words with BJP.  This worked to swing some of the Muslim votes where AIMIM is not running behind TRS and now TRS most likely splitting the Muslim vote with INC.  Also this also drove INC-BJP marginal voters toward BJP and then recreating the splintered opposition situation relative to TRS.  Of course this risks moving BJP-TRS marginal voters toward BJP but TRS figured that it had a bigger base and could survive this loss.  AIMIM and BJP are both happy to play along.  AIMIM has a incentive to weaken INC so in the future it banks all of the Muslim vote.  BJP wants to weaken INC so it can become the main opposition to TRS like it has done in Orissa with respect to BJD.

If TRS does better than expected then this is how TRS most likely pulled it off.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: December 08, 2018, 04:35:35 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2018, 05:35:27 PM by jaichind »

India TV-CNX also did a nationwide poll for LS elections.  Note that this cycle India TV-CNX seems to have pretty pro-BJP results.  

It has
NDA    281 (BJP 247)
UPA     124 (INC 79)
Othes  138



By state

MP:  BJP 20 INC 9 -> Seem to assume Modi can get BJP to punch above its weight
Chhattisgarh: BJP 7 INC 4 ->  Seem to assume Modi can get BJP to punch above its weight
Rajasthan: BJP 12 INC 13 ->  Seem to assume Modi can get BJP to punch above its weight
Punjab: INC 8 SAD 4 AAP 1 -> Seems reasonable other than AAP at 1 which seems high
Haryana: BJP 8 INC 1 INLD 1 ->  Seem to assume Modi can get BJP to punch above its weight
Bihar: BJP 15 JD(U) 9 RJD 10 INC 1 Others 5 -> Sounds generally right but not sure if this takes into account that RLSP will be with RJD-INC.  Others 5 I assume will be mostly LJP LJD RLSP.  
West Bengal: AITC 27 BJP 8 Left 5 INC 2 -> Seems about right
Odisha: BJD 16 BJP 5 -> Seems about right
Gujarat: BJP 26 INC 0 -> Seem to assume Modi can get BJP to punch above its weight
Karnataka: BJP 15 INC 9 JD(S) 4 -> I think this does not take into account INC-JD(S) alliance
AP: YSRCP 16 TDP 8 BJP 1 -> Does not take into account possible TDP-INC alliance.  I doubt BJP can win a seat without an alliance with YSRCP which is unlikely
Kerala: INC 7 Left 7 BJP 1 Others 5 -> Sounds about right.  I guess the Others 5 will be split between INC allies (MUL and KEC) and pro-Left Ind.
TN: DMK 17 INC 3 AIADMK 14 Others 5 -> AIADMK doing much better then I would think. I assume Other 5 will be split between MDMK PMK AMMK and RMM (likely ally of BJP).
UP: BJP 55 SP 9 BSP 9 INC 5 Others 2 -> Does not seem to assume SP-BSP alliance which I still think is likely.  Others 2 I suspect is 1 AD (BJP ally) and 1 RLD.
Maharashtra: BJP 30 SHS 8 INC 5 NCP 5 -> Seems to assume all 4 contests separately.  This is wrong as INC-NCP will most likely have an alliance
Northeast: BJP 17 Others 8 -> Seems to assume INC wipe out.  I assume Others 8 is something like 2 AIUDF 6 BJP allies (BPF, AGP, NPP, NDPP, SDF).  I doubt INC will wash out like that in Assam.
Delhi: BJP 7 INC 0 AAP 0 -> Seems right if no AAP-INC alliance
J&K: BJP 2 INC 1 PDP 1 NC 2 -> seems about right

I guess I think this poll might overestimate NDA strength since it assumes that Modi will power BJP above its natural rate of support in the Hindi heartland AND assumes no SP-BSP alliance in UP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: December 08, 2018, 07:07:08 PM »

I decided to plug the India TV-CNX national poll data by state  into an xls to reverse engineer what this poll would have for all states as well as to figure out the likely breakdown of Others in the states it does report.  This is what I concluded

                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      20                   9                                                       29
Chhattisgarh         7                   4                                                        11
Rajastahan          12                 13                                                        25
Punjab                        SAD:4     8                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               8                   1                                      INLD:1        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U):9    1  RJD:10                                           40
                                 LJP:3
                                 RLSP:1
WB                      8                   2                                      AITC:27      42
                                                                                       Left:5
Odisha                 5                                     BJD:16                             21   
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          15                   9                                      JD(S):4       28
AP                      1                   0                 YSRCP:16       TDP:8          25
Kerala                 1                   7  MUL:2                           Left:7          20
                                                   KEC:1                           Left Ind: 2
TN                      0                   3  DMK:17   AIADMK:14     AMMK:3       39
                                                  MDMK:1   PMK:1
UP                    55   AD:1         5                                      SP:9            80
                                                                                       BSP:9
Maharashtra      30   SHS:8       5  NCP:5                                              48     
Delhi                  7                    0                                                          7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Northeast         17   BPF:1                                                AIUDF:2       25
                              AGP:1
                             SDF:1
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
                             UDF:1
UT                    4                    1  NCP:1                                               6
Telengana         1                    5                   TRS:9          TDP:1           17
                                                                                     AIMIM:1                     
Jharkhand         5   AJSU:1      2  JMM:5                                              14
                                                 JVM:1
Goa                  1                   1                                                           2
Uttarakhand      4                   1                                                           5
HP                    3                   1                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              247  34           79  45             56               82              543

So it is BJP 247 BJP allies 34 -> 281
           INC 79 INC allies 45 -> 124
           Pro-BJP others 56
           Anti-BJP Others 82

Now, due to this poll potentially overestimating the BJP seat count by 30-40 due to assuming the Modi magic is still intact in the Hindu heartland PLUS assuming no SP-BSP alliance in UP, no INC-NCP alliance in Maharashtra, no INC-JD(S) alliance in  Karnataka it is totally possible that in reality that NDA will be around 240-250 seats.  If so it will need parties like YSRCP and AIADMK to come in to support a NDA government from the outside.  In such a case Modi might have to go.  So in 2019 LS elections the Modi magic MUST work in the Hindu heartland state in the North since Modi's job will depend on it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: December 09, 2018, 11:40:48 PM »

India equity exchange drops by more than 1.7% which is more that other Asian exchanges on exit poll results showing that BJP has lost ground from 2013 assembly elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: December 10, 2018, 07:45:48 PM »

In Bihar, as expected and predicted by me back in March, RLSP quits NDA because BJP would not budge from the 2 seat allocation in the incoming LS elections. I guess RLSP will join RJD-INC front.  Not sure how many seats it will get but I assume it will be more than 2 but not much greater than 2. 
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« Reply #359 on: December 10, 2018, 09:45:37 PM »

Vote counting has started.
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jaichind
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« Reply #360 on: December 10, 2018, 10:18:37 PM »

Counting begins (mostly postal votes)
Postal votes tend to lean BJP

MP(35/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC            17            +8
BJP            17             -9
BSP             0             --
Others         1             +1


Rajasthan(51/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        30            +22
BJP           24             -16
BSP            0              -2     
Others        0              -4


Telengana(45/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         27             +5
INC+       15             -1
BJP            3              --
Others       0              -4


Chhattisgarh(22/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC           9               --
BJP           8               -5
BSP+         4              +4
Others       1              +1


Mizoram(0/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF           0             --
INC            0             --
BJP            0             --
Others       0             --
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: December 10, 2018, 10:40:47 PM »

Counting begins (mostly postal votes)
Postal votes tend to lean BJP

MP(79/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC            35           +14
BJP            41            -17
BSP             1             +1
Others         2             +2


Rajasthan(120/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        66            +51
BJP           50             -43
BSP            1              -2   
Others        3              -6


Telengana(89/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         65            +21
INC+       20             -12
BJP            3              -2
Others       1              -7


Chhattisgarh(49/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          21              +2
BJP          27               -3
BSP+         2              +1
Others       0               --


Mizoram(7/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF           4             +1
INC            2             -1
BJP            0             --
Others       1             --
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« Reply #362 on: December 10, 2018, 10:46:02 PM »

Telangana is certainly TRS, Rajasthan seems to go Congress and Mizoram to MNF. Not clear about the rest.
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« Reply #363 on: December 10, 2018, 10:52:54 PM »

Counting begins (mostly postal votes)
Postal votes tend to lean BJP

MP(97/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC            49           +24
BJP            45            -28
BSP             2             +2
Others         2             +2


Rajasthan(147/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        80            +62
BJP           61             -55
BSP            1              -2
Others        5              -5


Telengana(107/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         75            +16
INC+       26              -9
BJP            2              -3
Others       4              -4


Chhattisgarh(62/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          29              +5
BJP          29               -8
BSP+         4              +3
Others       0               --


Mizoram(14/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF           8             +5
INC            4             -6
BJP            1             +1
Others       1             --

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jaichind
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« Reply #364 on: December 10, 2018, 10:53:30 PM »

Telangana is certainly TRS, Rajasthan seems to go Congress and Mizoram to MNF. Not clear about the rest.

MP will go INC.   Not sure about Chhattisgarh... we will see
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ag
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« Reply #365 on: December 10, 2018, 10:54:47 PM »

Telangana is certainly TRS, Rajasthan seems to go Congress and Mizoram to MNF. Not clear about the rest.

MP will go INC.   Not sure about Chhattisgarh... we will see

Yep, increasingly looks that way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #366 on: December 10, 2018, 11:05:10 PM »

Counting begins (some real results now)

MP(134/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC            69           +39
BJP            58            -43
BSP             5             +3
Others         2             +1


Rajasthan(168/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        85            +67
BJP           71             -65
BSP            1              -2
Others      10              --


Telengana(116/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         81            +19
INC+       24             -13
BJP            6             +1
Others       5              -7


Chhattisgarh(73/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          41            +11
BJP          28             -14
BSP+         4              +3
Others       0               --


Mizoram(23/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         15           +12
INC            6           -13
BJP            1             +1
Others       1             --
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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: December 10, 2018, 11:05:48 PM »

NDTV pointing out that the BJP CM is behind in Chhattisgarh.  If this is anything close to what will take place INC will take Chhattisgarh with ease.
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ag
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« Reply #368 on: December 10, 2018, 11:10:28 PM »

NDTV pointing out that the BJP CM is behind in Chhattisgarh.  If this is anything close to what will take place INC will take Chhattisgarh with ease.

Chhattisgarh has shifted big to INC. Looks like INC will win there for the first time since statehood!
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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: December 10, 2018, 11:13:38 PM »

Counting begins (some real results now)

MP(158/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC            81           +46
BJP            69            -49
BSP             5             +3
Others         3             --


Rajasthan(179/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        95            +75
BJP           67             -77
BSP            3             --
Others      14              +2


Telengana(116/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         81            +19
INC+       24             -13
BJP            6             +1
Others       5              -7


Chhattisgarh(79/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          48            +15
BJP          26             -19
BSP+         4              +3
Others       1              +1


Mizoram(31/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         19           +16
INC            6           -19
BJP            2             +2
Others       4             +3
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: December 10, 2018, 11:15:47 PM »

ECI vote share for Telangana which has results for 15 seats which is somewhat relevant

TRS                     50.3%
INC-TDP-TJS-CPI  25.5%
BJP                       8.9%
AIMIM                   4.9%

Blowout for TRS so far.
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jaichind
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« Reply #371 on: December 10, 2018, 11:19:50 PM »

ECI vote share for Rajasthan which is there for 11 seats

BJP                        32.8%
INC-LJD-NCP-RLD   36.6%
BTP                         7.4% (will go down over time)
BSP                         4.6%
CPM                         5.4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: December 10, 2018, 11:23:56 PM »

Counting begins (some real results now)

BJP falling apart in Chhattisgarh.  Still close in MP but the trend is on INC side and they should win.


MP(194/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC          102           +53
BJP            83            -56
BSP             5             +2
Others         4             +1


Rajasthan(184/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        99            +79
BJP           67             -81
BSP            3             --
Others      15              +2


Telengana(118/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         80            +17
INC+       27             -10
BJP            5              --
Others       6              -7


Chhattisgarh(82/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          50            +15
BJP          26             -20
BSP+         5              +4
Others       1              +1


Mizoram(35/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         22           +18
INC            8           -22
BJP            1             +1
Others       4             +3
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ag
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« Reply #373 on: December 10, 2018, 11:28:24 PM »

INC is on track to get better result in Chhatisgarh than BJP has ever had!
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: December 10, 2018, 11:30:14 PM »

Counting begins (some real results now)

BJP falling apart in Chhattisgarh and it is getting worse and worse.  This is the first breakout election for Chhattisgarh  in either direction since the 1990s.  Still close in MP but the trend is on INC side and they should win.


MP(199/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC          101           +52
BJP            87            -57
BSP             5             +2
Others         6             +3


Rajasthan(186/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+       101            +81
BJP           68             -82
BSP            3             --
Others      14              +1 (9 IND, 3 RLP, 1 BTP, 1 CPM)


Telengana(119/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         82            +19
INC+       25             -12
BJP           6              +1
Others       6              -8


Chhattisgarh(83/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          55            +19
BJP          21             -25
BSP+         6              +5
Others       1              +1


Mizoram(38/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         25           +21
INC            9           -24
BJP            1             +1
Others       3             +2
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