India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

With UP BJP government trying to deal with a resurgent opposition with the SP-BSP alliance as well as Dalit protests and clear anger by Dalit BJP MPs and MLA toward the UP BJP government, yet another blow has taken place.  A 16 year old girl tried to commit suicide in front of the UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath's house.

It seems that a BJP MLA and minister in the UP cabinet Kuldeep Singh Sengar

who is a famous party hopper (he started in the Youth INC in the late 1990s then was elected as MLA with BSP in 2002 and then elected in 2007 and 2012 with SP and then defected to BJP and elected again in 2017 has alleged organized a gang rape of this 16 year old last year with his brother.  After the rape the girl's family worked to file charges to no avail with the police. The girl's family got repeated calls (which were recorded) from the BJP MLA Kuldeep Singh Sengar threatening them to drop charges. Then the BJP MLA  Kuldeep Singh Sengar and brother got the police to arrest the girl's father who then was tortured and then died in prison.  This triggered the girl to then to go to the house of the UP CM to unsuccessfully commit suicide.   

This story is leading to large outrage in the media especially when  Kuldeep Singh Sengar still have not been questioned by the police yes and still is a member of the UP cabinet.

[jaichind]

India Today-Karvy poll for Karnataka has hung assembly with slight INC lead
 
              Seats    vote share
INC             96           37%
BJP             82           35%
JD(S)-BSP   39           19%
Others          7             9%


which is pretty much 2013 results but with the 2013 BJP splinters (KJP BSRCP) merging back into the BJP vote.

[jaichind]

In Karnataka even though JD(S) has an alliance with BSP, it seems that with the anti-BJP SP-BSP alliance being formed in UP BSP has not broken the alliance but now seems much more passive about the election given the perception that post election JD(S) is more likely to back BJP than INC. NCP which had planned to perhaps ally with JD(S) now back backed out of that and will back INC in the Karnataka.

Given the bad blood between BJP and TDP after the split of TDP from NDA over the Special status for AP, TDP is telling to Telegu population in Karnataka to vote against BJP.

[jaichind]

More signs of political churn ahead of the 2019 LS elections.  We already had the unprecedented SP-BSP alliance which was unthinkable given their post-1995 rivalry. 

Now there are signs of INC and TDP coming together with TDP backing INC in the Karnataka assembly elections and INC in Telangana openly talking about pursuing an INC-TDP alliance which breaks the old INC-TDP rivalry that started in 1983

In Maharashtra NCP came out and said that SHS does not pose a danger to secularism which implies that NCP is open to an alliance with SHS. 

Both events have geographical reasons.  When AP was united it was very simple: it was INC vs TDP.  Then when the Telangana issue started the early 2000s the TDP branch in Telangana broke off and formed TRS.  As Telangana was formed the Seemandhra branch of INC broke off and formed YSRCP.  So in Seemandhra (now AP) it is now a battle between TDP vs YSRCP.  In Telangana it is now INC vs TRS.  So both TDP and INC have different rivals in the two regions making it much easier to form an alliance.

In Maharashtra SHS tends to be strong in the Mumbai area and weak in the rest of Maharashtra while SHS is exactly the opposite.  So these two parties natural allies.  The idea of a NCP-SHS alliance has been talked about before but it is coming up again.

[jaichind]

With about a year to go before 2019 LS elections I decided to do a bottoms up district-by-district prediction of 2019 LS results.

My assumptions are
1) Unlike 2014 this will be a confederation of various state dynamics driven by alliance math as well as anti-incumbency.  2004 was like this model.  2014 and to some extent 199 there was a Modi and Vajpayee wave that made the election more "Presidential" choice election.   If 2019 was such a choice election then BJP/Modi will do fairly well.  I am assuming that this election will be "wave-less"
2) Various anti-BJP alliance driven by the rise of the BJP gets created in several critical states (UP, Jharkhand), INC gaining some critical allies (TDP in AP and Telangana), and BJP unable to retain key allies (SHS and TDP)
3) Most of the 2014 AAP vote outside of places like Delhi Punjab and Haryana were from urban middle class voters that will mostly flow back to BJP now that AAP fad is over and AAP will mostly retreat to the Greater Delhi area.
4) State level support tend to match last assembly elections with ever greater anti-incumbency.
5) Karnataka assembly election in May 2019 gives INC an edge over BJP
6) For Nov 2018 elections, MP assembly election has BJP winning but INC closing the gap, INC coming very close to winning in Chhattisgarh and INC winning in Rajasthan.

Going state by state we have (in terms of seats and estimated voted share)

J&K
BJP-PDP will have an alliance which actually works against them as their voting bases are not compatible and lose votes to INC-NC.  The support for BJP is skewed which works against them in terms of seats.

2019  
NDA: 1 (1 BJP, 0 PDP) ~42%
UPA: 5 (3 NC, 2 INC)  ~43%

2014
NDA:       3 (3 BJP)               32.6%
UPA:       0 (0 NC, 0 INC)       34.3%
Others:   3 PDP                     20.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 HP assembly elections with a bit of anti-incumbency that is somewhat mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland

2019
NDA: 3 BJP   ~53%
UPA: 1 INC   ~45%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana
3 way battle between BJP INC and INLD.  AAP also will be in the hunt.  BSP will back INLD.  BJP loses ground from 2014 assembly elections but somewhat mitigated by Modi popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA:      5 BJP                                 ~34%
UPA:      2 INC                                 ~27%
Others:  3 INLD-BSP (3 INLD 0 BSP)  ~29%
             0 AAP                                   ~7%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%

Punjab
AAP has lost a lot of ground mostly to NDA since the 2017 assembly elections.  NDA will do better in relative terms when compared to 2017 assembly elections.

2019
NDA:    7 (6 SAD, 1 BJP)    ~38%
UPA:     6 INC                   ~37%
Others: 0 AAP-LIF             ~18%
            0 BSP                     ~3%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%

Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA: 7 BJP      ~44%
UPA:  0 INC     ~23%
Others: 0 AAP  ~30%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP    ~48%
UPA:     1 INC    ~42%
Others  0 BSP      ~8%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP
This is the big one.  I assume some swing away from BJP due to anti-incumbency from its 2017 assembly election victory.  I also assume that SP-BSP-RLD-PECP-NISHAD alliance will be formed.  INC will have a tactical alliance with this new mega front.  INC will run in only half the seats in UP with this mega-front not running in 7 seats where INC is the clear alternative to BJP.  These alliances are so broad in terms of social breath that some votes will be lost to rebels as well as the BJP.  Net effect is BJP from (BJP AD(S) and SBSP) actually gains votes relative to 2014 but loses a bunch of seats due to the consolidation of the anti-BJP vote.

2019
NDA: 35 (32 BJP 2 AD(S) 1 SBSP)                                          ~45%
UPA:   4 INC                                                                          ~7%
Others: Grand alliance 41 (25 SP 15 BSP 1 RLD 0 NISHAD)      ~42%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar
On paper the NDA now have a very large coalition with BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLSP.  Most likely not all these parties can be accommodated and RLSP will go over to UPA.  UPA will counter with RLD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-NCP-JMM-CPM-CPI.  HAM is the JD(U) splinter that was with NDA in the 2015 assembly elections but already went over to UPA.  LJD is the pro-RJP JD(U) faction led by Sharad Yadav.  In theory NDA has the numbers to sweep the polls.  In reality having JD(U) come over to NDA also brings with it anti-incumbency and the result will be an almost even split between NDA and UPA.

2019
NDA:  22 (15 BJP 4 JD(U) 3 LJP)                                    ~45%
UPA:   18 (12 RJD 4 INC 1 LJD 1 NCP 0 HAM 0 RLSP)      ~44%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Assuming 2018 assembly results are a BJP victory with a reduced margin we should expect the 2019 LS election to mimic that result with a small swing toward BJP due to Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP     ~51%
UPA:    8 INC     ~41%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Rajasthan is very elastic and always alternates in power each election.   Here I expect INC to win a narrow victory in 2018 assembly elections and for the LS election results to mostly mimic the assembly election result with a small swing toward BJP due to Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA: 11 BJP      ~47%
UPA:  14 INC     ~46%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Chhattisgarh has been trending INC last few election cycles and I expect a narrow BJP or INC victory in the 2018 assembly elections.  Former INC CM Ajit Jogi has split off and formed CJC but should have fairly limited impact beyond hurting INC in a couple of seats.  Modi has been popular here both with the OBCs and tribals and should give the BJP an edge here.

2019
NDA:  8 BJP       ~47%
UPA:  3 INC       ~42%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
Here NDA has gained an ally since the 2014 LS elections in the form of AJSU.  But that is counted by anti-incumbency since the 2014 assembly elections plus a grand alliance of JMM-INC-JVM-RJD.  The result should be mostly a draw.

2019
NDA:  7 (7 BJP 0 AJSU)                         ~43%
UPA:   7 (3 JMM 3 INC 1 JVM 0 RJD)       ~44%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                   40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC)    24.6%
           0 JVM                   12.3%
           0 AJSU                   3.8%

Gujarat
I expect the election result to mimic the 2017 assembly election with again a small swing toward Modi due to the favorite son affect and Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.  INC should get some seats based on an INC-BTP-NCP alliance to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP                                ~53%
UPA:    5 (4 INC 1 BTP 0 NCP)        ~43%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
Here the old NDA parties BJP and SHS have, if anything, expanded since 2014.  Main issue for BJP here is SHS pretty much has decided to go off on their own given their fear that BJP is trying to displace them.  Also some alliance swaps took place. SWP which was with NDA in 2014 has go over to the UPA while BVA which was with UPA in 2014 has go over to the BJP.  I also assume that UPA will get PWPI to join UPA.  The net affect of BJP and SHS splitting and INC-NCP alliance holding is that INC-NCP will gain seats even if their vote share might stagnate or decline.   SHS splinter NMS which also has turned hostile to Modi recently could end up in an alliance with SHS which I will assume for now.

2019
NDA:                 14 (13 BJP 1 BVA)                             ~32%
UPA:                 27 (11 INC 13 NCP 2 SWP 1 PWPI)      ~37%
Others:  SHS+     7 (7 SHS 0 NMS)                             ~23%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%

Goa
I expect the results to match the 2016 assembly election with some swing away from BJP due to anti-incumbency as well as infighting within NDA.

2019
NDA: 1 BJP     ~51%
UPA: 1 INC     ~42%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB
Here I expect a BJP surge mostly at the expense of the Left Front and to some extent AITC.  INC and Left front will form a tactical alliance where INC will back Left Front in most seats and Left Front will back INC in a few seats with some seats where both are strong having both contesting.  The INC-Left Front tactical alliance are able to save a few seats (mostly to the benefit of INC) while the BJP surge is not enough to gain BJP a large number of seats, yet.  GJM has called off its support for BJP and switched to AITC which means BJP will lose Darjeeling to AITC.

2019
NDA:        6 BJP            ~27%
UPA:        6 INC              ~7%
Others:  29 AITC           ~37%
              1  Left Front    ~26%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa
Here BJP is emerging as the main opponent to BJD with INC losing support fast to both BJP and BJD.  BJP will gain a lot in terms of vote share an seats but not enough to displace BJD as the number one party.

2019
NDA:      8 BJP     ~37%
UPA:      0 INC     ~15%
Others: 13 BJD    ~43%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
Here I expect INC to emerge as the largest party in the 2018 assembly elections if not a majority.  One key aspect is the relative revival of JD(S) which will un-do some anti-INC tactical voting for BJP in INC-BJP marginal seats.   Due to the distribution of vote share support BJP will hold a seat advantage even with similar vote share.

2019
NDA:   14 BJP      ~38%
UPA:    10 INC     ~39%
Others:  4 JD(S)  ~20%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
Here the end of TDP-BJP alliance puts TDP in trouble relative to YSRCP.  The TDP-YSRCP battle of the special status for AP has poised the environment so much that no party will ally with BJP.  TDP also has to deal with the fact that JSP which backed TDP in 2014 will now strike out on its own.  As a result I assume that a shocking TDP-INC alliance will be formed to prevent a total TDP meltdown.  Such an alliance could not prevent the loss of seats to YSRCP but does limit the damage.  Post-election YSRCP could end up joining forces with BJP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                      ~4%
UPA:        9 (7 TDP 2 INC)     ~40%
Others:  16 YSRCP                ~43%
              0 JSP                     ~11%

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
Here the fall of TDP-BJP alliance means at race between INC and TRS to win over TDP.  I assume that INC will win that race.  YSRCP has completely pulled out of the state.  INC-TDP will fight TRS to a draw.

2019
NDA:    1 BJP                       ~17%
UPA:     7 (4 INC 3 TDP)       ~39%
Others: 8 TRS                      ~36%
            1 AIMIM                    ~4%

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
TN in politics is in turmoil.  AIADMK has splintered since 2016 after the death of Jayalaliatha.  The Sasikala faction led by TTV Dhinakaran has created AMMK which will cut into AIADMK votes.   Also film Rajinikanth has formed his own new party which like DMDK a decade ago I would expect to capture around 10% of the vote.  Rajinikanth's party name is not announced yet but I assume it will be RMM which is the name of his fan club.  Rajinikanth views are closer to BJP most likely will ally with BJP (this is what BJP wants) although BJP's reputation in TN is fairly low given their repeated intervention in the AIADMK civil war which TN votes view as an infringement of TN autonomy.  To some extent the rise of AMMK also stems from the same trend.  The winner of all this is clearly DMK which has recreated its alliance with INC and will get other pro-DMK parties like VCK PT MMK to continue their alliance.  The icing on the cake is getting MDMK to join up with the DMK front.  PMK and DMDK will also contest either together or separately but that will only split the anti-DMK vote. With AIADMK splintered DMK bloc is poised to sweep the polls given the uniform swing nature of TN.

2019
NDA:      0 (0 RMM 0 BJP)                                 ~13%
UPA      33 (23 DMK 5 INC 3 MDMK 1 VCK 1 PT) ~37%
Others:   5 AIADMK                                          ~30%
             0 AMMK                                               ~9%
             1 PMK

2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Here I expect some anti-incumbency to hit the Left Front since the 2016 assembly elections but while UPA will gain from Left Front UPA will lose more to a surging BJP.  BJP has lost its alliance with BDJS but I assume it will regain it by the time of the LS election.  BJP will win its first seat in Kerala.  KEC(M) has broken has INC but I expect by the LS election for KEC(M) to come back.  

2019
NDA:       1 BJP                                          ~15%
UPA:       7 (3 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)   ~41%
Others:  12 Left Front                                 ~41%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
BJP is stronger than 2014 LS election given its new allies (AGP and BPF).  On the other hand there is anti-incumbency since the 2016 assembly elections.  As a result I expect the result to be evenly matched between NDA and UPA.

2019
NDA:       6 (5 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)       ~43%
UPA:        5 INC                              ~36%
Others:    3 AIUDF                          ~14%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                     38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)



11 Northeast seats
I expect a complete NDA sweep here given recent assembly elections results there as well as the fact these backward states tend to vote for the incumbent national party given its dependency on federal subsidies.

2019
NDA:    11 (6 BJP 1 NDPP 1 NPP 1 UDF(M) 1 UDP 1 SDF)
UPA:      0 INC
Others:  0 Left Front

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 217 (194 BJP)  ~35.5% (~31.5% BJP)
UPA   182 (101 INC)  ~30.5% (~21.5% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

which is a major setback for BJP.  Note that BJP vote share of ~31.5% is nearly identical to 2014 but losing key allies as well as consolidation of the anti-BJP vote brings down its seat share dramatically.  The distribution of BJP vote is also not as favorable.  INC vote share of ~21.5% is only 2.0% higher than in 2014 but the right alliances gives it a lot more seats along with a more favorable distribution of votes.  

[jaichind]

It seems that in UP 4 BJP Dalit MPs are openly attacking the BJP leadership over treatment of Dalits and most likely will not be renominated.

https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20180417/3323177.html

It is pointed out that all 4 were defectors from BSP to BJP and won on the BJP ticket in 2014 are looking to defect back to BSP now that with the SP-BSP alliance it is likely they will lose re-election.  All 4 it seems were able to pull in Dalit votes in 2014 but given the issues with Dalits and the current UP regime that seems unlikely to repeat itself.  So in order come up with a reason to defect back they came out openly to attack the BJP leadership. 

This would be a good data set to back-test my predictions since all 4 BJP Dalit MPs view their seats are likely to be not winnable in 2019.    The 4 seats in question are (along with 2014 and my 2019 model results)

Etawah
2014
BJP  46.8%
SP   28.4%
BSP  20.5%
INC   1.4%

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
BJP  47.9%
SP   46.6%


Nagina
2014
BJP  39.0%
SP   29.2%
BSP  26.1%
PECP  2.3%
MD    1.4% (INC ally)

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
SP   52.8%
BJP  40.9%


Robertsganj
2014
BJP  42.7%
SP   21.1%
BSP  15.3%
INC   9.7%
CPI    2.8%

2019 (INC runs here)
BJP   43.4%
BSP  38.7%
INC    7.8%


Bahraich
2014
BJP  46.3%
SP   36.1%
BSP  10.4%
INC   2.6%

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
SP   47.5%
BJP  45.9%


So under my model BJP actually would win 2 of the 4 seats (1 of them narrowly.)  In Robertsganj had INC not run a candidate under my model BJP would also narrowly win.  So these Dalit BJP MPs, if anything, is slightly more negative than my model on the prospects of BJP in UP against a SP-BSP grand alliance.

[jaichind]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/apr/17/bjp-wants-to-contest-for-majority-of-seats-in-bihar-in-2019-polls-sends-jitters-in-jdu-ljp-and-r-1802830.html

It seems the Bihar LS seat sharing battle is heating up.  BJP insist contesting a majority of the 40 Bihar LS seats based on the fact that it won 22 seats in 2014.  JD(U) which back in 2004 and 2009 contested 25 seats as an ally of BJP insist that it must have at least 18.  LJP which won 6 in 2014 wants 10 and RLSP which won 3 in 2014 wants 7.  What makes it worse is 1 of the RLSP winners in 2014 has since defected to BJP.  So RLSP way of looking at things is: RLSP won 3 seats in 2014.  The way BJP looks at it is: BJP has 23 incumbent MPs to accommodate which makes barging worse.

I think the end game here is that RLSP defects to UPA and BJP JD(U) LJP work out some compromise deal.

Also I think BJP made a mistake back in 2017 to form an alliance with JD(U) as the ruling party of Bihar.  What the BJP really did was to inherent anti-incumbency at both levels (Federal and state) with a weakened Nitish Kumar.  What the BJP should have done was to insist on a BJP CM back in 2017 which could have reset the clock on state anti-incumbency.  It ls clear now that the BJP sees it mistake and is trying to push Hindu polarization to beat back RJD.  RJD on the flip side is pushing a Backwards-Dalit-Muslim count-consolidating.  Both acts merely weakens JD(U) even more as its base splinters between BJP and RJD. 

The best sort of alliance is to join up with an opposition that is clearly the main alternative to an incumbent party weighted down by anti-incumbency.  The INC alliance with DMK in TN is a clear example of this which will get rich dividends for both DMK and INC.  My conjectured alliance between INC and TDP in AP in that sense will not be that great of an alliance for INC but could save TDP from total defeat by YSRCP.  I guess the strategy there  would be for TDP-INC to blame BJP for all issues related to AP development due to BJP federal government not granting AP special status.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/inld-bsp-seal-poll-deal-to-fight-bjp/articleshow/63822213.cms

One alliance prediction I made and assumed for by election projection model already came true.  I had assumed that in Haryana INLD and BSP will form an alliance.  It seems within a day or two they came out with an announcement of such an alliance.

[jaichind]

In Karnataka it could be CM vs CM and for sure son vs son.

INC CM Siddaramaiah vacated his seat of Varuna so his son can run there.  Instead he will run in his old seat and JD(S) stronghold of Chamundeshwari.  The son BJP CM candidate (and an ex-CM) Yeddyurappa will also run in Varuna to make it son vs son.  Siddaramaiah represented  Chamundeshwari when he was in JD(S).  The Chamundeshwari JD(S) incumbent is  Siddaramaiah's old protege.

In 2013 Varuna it was

INC (Siddaramaiah)   52.5%
KJP                           34.1%  (KJP was Yeddyurappa BJP splinter party in 2013)
JD(S)                          1.7%

In 2013  Chamundeshwari it was
JD(S)      42.9%
INC         38.9%
KJP           9.5%
BJP           4.7%

JD(S) is determined to hit back at Siddaramaiah who it views as a traitor.  There rumors of a tactical deal between BJP and JD(S) in Chamundeshwari and Varuna where the BJP will run a weak candidate in Chamundeshwari so the anti-INC vote can consolidate to defeat Siddaramaiah while JD(S) will run a weak candidate in Varuna to try to defeat Siddaramaiah's son.


It seems that Siddaramaiah will also run from Badami.   In response it is said that Yeddyurappa will also run in Badami so they can face each other face to face.  If so this election will become CM vs CM in Badami and son vs son in Varuna.

In 2013  Badami it was

INC     41.3%
JD(S)   30.4%
BJP      21.8%
KJP       2.2%

[jaichind]

There were a bunch of municipal elections Jharkhand a few days ago.  The opposition (JMM INC JVM RJD) contested separately on purpose to get a sense of the relative strength of these opposition parties.  BJP and AJSU did the same for similar reasons.  The BJP swept most of the seats.  JMM and JVM under-performed while INC over-performed.   The vote share split seems to indicate that the opposition must unite in 2019 LS and assembly elections to have a chance but if they do unite it will be quite competitive.

It seems what JMM and JVM got out of the elections are that there are no room for any splintering of the opposition and both seem determined join hand with INC take on the ruling BJP-AJSU ruling bloc. INC's performance seem to mean that while JMM will be the leader of the opposition alliance, INC will be in a strong bargaining position for a significant number of seats.  For 2019, like I expected, we are headed toward a bipolar BJP-AJSU vs JMM-INC-JVM-RJD.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/bsp-may-not-contest-against-gandhis-in-2019/articleshow/63854967.cms

In UP it seems that SP-BSP alliance talks are far enough along that BSP is now open to not contesting in the Gandhi (Sonia and Rahul) seats.  INC sources seems to indicate that they would be open to an alliance with SP-BSP where INC would get 10-12 seats with SP-BSP splitting the rest after RLD get a seat or two. 

My base case is still that such an alliance would be hard to pull off.  I foresee a situation where SP-BSP gives INC at most 7 seats which leads to a partial alliance with SP-BSP-RLD-NISHAND contests 73 seats (35 SP 35 BSP 2 RLD 1 NISHAND) and backing INC in the rest.  INC would withdraw candidates in 40+ seats to back the Grand Alliance but will run candidates in the rest.

[jaichind]

Times Now-VMR has it neck-to-neck between INC and BJP with a very strong performance for JD(S)
  

                       Seats     Vote share
INC                    91            38.6%
BJP                    89            35.0%
JD(S)-BSP          40            21.3%
Others                 4             5.04%

[jaichind]

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS poll for Karnataka has BJP slightly ahead

                       Seats     Vote share
INC                    88            37%
BJP                    92            35%
JD(S)-BSP          35             

[jaichind]

If I were INC I would be very nervous with all these polls having it neck-to-neck between INC and BJP.  All things equal the incumbent party will under-perform pre-election surveys. 

[jaichind]

In Karnataka the BJP has backed out of the Son vs Son battle by not nominating BJP CM Yeddyurappa's son to contest Varuna against INC CM Siddaramaiah's son.  Not clear why this was done after the hype and the build up for this prestige battle.  The BJP base seems to have been demoralized by this act and many BJP party workers are up in arms about this.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems Nitish Kumar is trying to create a bloc-within-a-bloc in the NDA.  The JD(U) concern is that the BJP is trying to polarize  the electorate to push Forward Castes and OBCs toward BJP which could then dominate the NDA in Bihar.  Nitish Kumar seems to be counter with a JD(U)-LJP-RLSP de facto alliance that seeks to reach out to Muslims and Dalits.  The undertone of JD(U) is clear.  If the BJP tries to short change JD(U) in LS 2019 and Assembly 2020 seat sharing talks then JD(U)-LJP-RLSP could counter with the threat of a third front making it BJP vs RJD-INC-HAM-NCP-LJD vs JD(U)-LJP-RLSP fight.

My take on this is that JD(U) is becoming a paper tiger and BJP will call its bluff with the result of JD(U) having to accept junior status as its voting base migrate to BJP and RJD.   As a result RLSP will get the short end of seat sharing talks and would eventually drop out of NDA and join up with UPA.

[jaichind]

 
NDA: 217 (194 BJP)  ~35.5% (~31.5% BJP)
UPA   182 (101 INC)  ~30.5% (~21.5% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

I decided to stress test my projection in case there is a Modi wave on top of the alliance structures I assumed.  I figured in a Presidential style election Modi wave NDA can gain an extra 3% vote share and overcome a 5% deficit on top of my current projection.   In such a case the BJP can win an extra 66 seats and other NDA allies 9 extra seats which would put BJP at 260 seats and NDA at 292 which would give the NDA a governing majority.

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Karnataka election.  

They point out that had KJP BSRCP not split from BJP in 2013 assembly elections then the 2013 election would have been neck-to-neck between INC and BJP.



Poll of polls has BJP losing ground to JD(S) last few months



Swings needed by BJP and INC to win majority relative to 2013 (assuming BJP KJP BSRCP were united)




NDTV points out that 2013 village level elections were fairly predictive of 2013 assembly elections


Which in turn if we look at 2018 village level elections has INC ahead but without majority



Some data on caste breakdown



Districts can be broken down to Lingayat Vokkaliga Muslim Dalit/Tribal and Mixed (mostly are on Coastal area which have some Muslims so the Hindu-Muslim conflict have salience)  



NDTV took the vote share average of the last 2 LS and assembly elections and look at the vote share breakdown by district type.  There is no surprise.   Lingayat districts are INC vs BJP,  Vokkaliga are INC vs JD(S) [Modi wave and anti-INC tactical voting in 2014 skews the data as to underestimate true JD(S) strength], and Muslim/Mixed seats are INC vs BJP.
 

[jaichind]

 Jan Ki Baat Republic poll has BJP ahead

               seats     vote share
INC           73            38%
BJP          105           40%
JD(S)+      43            20%
Others        3              2%



While ABP-CSDS has INC ahead

               seats     vote share
INC           97            38%
BJP           84            33%
JD(S)+      38            22%
Others        5              7%



Back in late April ABP-CSDS had BJP ahead 92 to INC 88 and only tried INC vote share wise 35% to 37%.  Seems like this poll had a small swing away from BJP and toward INC and JD(S).

In seems both polls has INC around 38%.  Key is will anti-INC forces consolidate around BJP or not.

[jaichind]

Karnataka voting is tomorrow.  The trend the last week of the campaign seems to be a slight momentum shift toward the BJP. 

The election result will still be decided on how Lingayat and Dalit vote goes.

INC's social composition strategy is AHINDA - which is Muslims, Dalits, and OBC. INC CM Siddaramaiah being from the large OBC Kurubas is part of that strategy.  The weak leg here are some Dalit votes might leak to JD(S)-BSP or BJP

BJP's social composition strategy is Lingayat, OBC and Dalits.  Here the Lingayat vote is the main risk of going to INC due to a perception among Lingayats that BJP CM candidate and Lingayat Yeddyurappa is being sidelined by BJP high command and other BJP factions.

JD(S)-BSP is based on Vokkaliga and is trying to expand into Muslim and Dalit votes.

If INC dalit base experiences defections to BJP and JD(S) then BJP wins.  If BJP's  Lingayat base experiences defections to INC then INC wins.

[jaichind]

BJP rigging EVMs to win elections: Shiv Sena

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-rigging-evms-to-win-elections-shiv-sena-5172852/

With allies like this who needs enemies.  SHS which already announced that in 2019 it will no longer be a BJP ally in Maharashtra and dealing a major blow to BJP chances there in 2019 when INC-NCP will be allied now has come to praise INC Rahul Gandhi and will back INC in an upcoming assembly by-election.

SHS backed INC back in the 1980s but has stayed with BJP since their alliance started in the late 1980s.  It is still far fetched but there is a small chance in 2019 we might see in Maharashtra a uber anti-INC grand alliance of INC-NCP-SHS to take on BJP.  SHS splinter NMS which was pro-Modi back in 2014 has also turned against BJP might also join in.

The main reason why SHS has gotten so negative on BJP party because of Narayan Rane.  Narayan Rane was the SHS CM of Maharashtra in the 1994-1999 SHS-BJP government.  The  he had an falling out with SHS and defected to INC.  He recently defected from INC to form his own party MSP which has allied with BJP.  SHS has asked BJP not to have any truck with Narayan Rane and was ignored.  Ever since then the SHS attacks on BJP has grown with intensity even as on paper the Maharashtra government is still a BJP-SHS one.     

[jaichind]

Karnataka voting in progress.  As of 3pm turnout was 56% with voting ending at 5pm when exit polls will come out.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 5pm is 64%.  Back in 2013 it was 72% and in 2008 (which was a midterm) it was 65%.  This seems mildly positive for INC as a very high turnout would represent a anti-incumbency wave.  Main risk for INC is this could be the INC voting base having lower turnout.

[jaichind]

NewsX exit poll has BJP advantage.

INC     76
BJP    106
JD(S)   37

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll also BJP ahead

BJP    103
INC     93
JD(S)  26