What will be the shocking upset of the night in 2018?

[136or142]

Trump Mafia member Devin Nunes is defeated.

[progressive85]

Democrats picking up Governor in Kansas and Oklahoma with long coattails in the statehouses.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can just feel it... Bredesen beating Blackburn in Tennessee. I don't know, it's the universe TELLING me.

[VPH]

Democrats picking up Governor in Kansas and Oklahoma with long coattails in the statehouses.

In all honesty, there aren't a huge amount of competitive pick-up opportunities for Dems in Kansas. 2016's gains were absolutely massive (won a few Trump 65%+ seats even). Holding onto the many Trump-Dem seats will be the first task. I'd be especially careful about Eber Phelps' seat (Ellis County, which used to be Democratic many moons ago), Steve Crum's seat (Haysville, just south of Wichita but deeply R), Ed Trimmer's seat (Winfield, Cowley County, which can be nice to Democrats for some reason but in 2014 he won by a miniscule margin), and Adam Lusker's seat (Frontenac, Crawford County, which is the last Democratic stronghold in SE Kansas, although it's moved sharply right in the last decade or so).

 If I see some openings, they'd be
HD-119 (Dodge City), where a Democrat who dropped out shockingly got 48%, high Hispanic population so turnout will be important
HD-69 (Salina), JR Claeys is pretty disliked, although working-class Salina being split in 2 districts doesn't help Democrats
HD-51 (rural area between Manhattan and Topeka), where Adrienne Olejnik nearly beat Ron Highland, I can't say I know much about this district but it could be a shot for us
HD-45 (Lawrence suburbs), Clinton got like 64% here, but Tom Sloan always seems to hang on. For reference, Tom Sloan is a bastion of the Yankee-style Republicandom that used to define Douglas County back in the day
HD-23 (Lenexa), very suburban, well-off, nearly lost in 2016 but she's a moderate who fits her district
HD-30 (Lenexa), Powell might fall victim to national trends, and he is more conservative than Gallagher

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kevin McCarthy loses.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Kevin McCarthy loses.

This wouldn't be hugely shocking... At least not for me.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Senate: Ted Cruz losing or Virginia 14 redux
House: Ryan losing. If he retires WV-03
Governor: Abrams win GA.

[Keep cool-idge]

Senate: Ted Cruz losing or Virginia 14 redux
House: Ryan losing. If he retires WV-03
Governor: Abrams win GA.

Lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

Brandon Presley beating McDaniels in Mississippi by .03%

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Very bold prediction: the Zodiac Killer narrowly loses in Texas.

[Del Tachi]

Peter Roskam losing?

[junior chįmp]

Democrats will end up with either a parity in governorships or more than Republicans

[Strudelcutie4427]

Feeling the best effects of the new tax code, especially given the lack of state income taxes, Republicans sweep NH, Kister goes down, Atlas loses its mind

[Wiz in Wis]

Dems take Wisconsin State Senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beig edgy here, but maybe Ojeda wins.

[TheSaint250]

John Morgan's People's Party will dominate /s

[The Dowager Mod]

The Iron 'Stache beats Eddie Munster.

[Brittain33]

Peter King losing (assuming he has a viable challenger)

[Pyro]

Texas or Tennessee. Also if somehow Tina Smith loses to Pawlenty.

[Devout Centrist]

Bredesen emerges victorious; Ducey loses narrowly.

[UWS]

O'Rourke wins.

[Oryxslayer]

Peter King losing (assuming he has a viable challenger)

I read somewhere that he was an expected retire later this year (I always expected it) and his plan was to do it late enough to get his daughter through a NY-style party convention without a primary.

Big shockers on the other hand - Dems loosing one of RI/CT even as the rest of the nation votes left, Evens wins in GA, and Tennessee Senate goes Blue.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats gain 10-15 seats in the Oklahoma House of Representatives.

[Blackacre]

Cruz and Malloy both lose.

[tallguy23]

Probably Tennessee senate going Dem. Or Cruz losing.