Forward? – A 2012 Election Game (Sign Up and Rules Thread)

[Lumine]

Results up, next turn coming tomorrow. It will include Super Tuesday polling, and a write-up offering analysis on each campaign.

How long will this next turn last? Will it cover the rest of February?

No, February will be split in two turns of about ten days each. This, of course, means there's no extensions and both turns will last 72 hours.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

Don't be too over confident. Paul can still whip you good

[adamevans]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

Don't be too over confident. Paul can still whip you good

I didn't say he couldn't (which he doesn't seem to be looking like he can do right now). I just said Fletcher is the frontrunner and is in a pretty good position right now in the upcoming primaries.

[terp40hitch]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

I would say Carolla too since he could make a play out west and New York

[adamevans]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

I would say Carolla too since he could make a play out west and New York

Washington is his last shot at winning a primary. Without that, I don't see momentum for him.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

I would say Carolla too since he could make a play out west and New York

Washington is his last shot at winning a primary. Without that, I don't see momentum for him.

Agreed. He loses in Washington, he should drop out, as all moment of his will be gone

[terp40hitch]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

I would say Carolla too since he could make a play out west and New York

Washington is his last shot at winning a primary. Without that, I don't see momentum for him.

I see that too but if he does win he could have serious momentum going into Super Tuesday

[NewYorkExpress]

While nothing is official until I see Michigan and Super Tuesday polling, I think it's time to congratulate  Senator Clinton on becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Dkrol, you've done a wonderful job.

-Note, Biden hasn't officially dropped out yet, and won't until polls for Michigan/Super Tuesday are released...but if they are, what I believe they'll look like, I have every reason to believe he will drop out.

You should stay in, you are doing as well as Bernie did in 2016

I'm not Bernie Sanders, and I won't sabotage the Democrats chances in November anymore than I have to if I have no realistic shot at winning the nomination.

[adamevans]

If I may point out, Ron Paul barely suffered damage from not campaigning or attending debates, but Fletcher suffered more damage than Paul somehow.

[terp40hitch]

If I may point out, Ron Paul barely suffered damage from not campaigning or attending debates, but Fletcher suffered more damage than Paul somehow.

It was because Bachmann took his support but I am surprised how hurt Brown was from not debating.

Also Brown should have 7 delegates not 4

[Jaguar4life]

Meanwhile, the reps have to find out who is their choice After Christie left

I think it'll be a Bachmann v. Paul v. Fletcher with Fletcher as the front-runner

I would say Carolla too since he could make a play out west and New York

Washington is his last shot at winning a primary. Without that, I don't see momentum for him.

Agreed. He loses in Washington, he should drop out, as all moment of his will be gone

I’m sure he can do good with the moderate Republicans

[adamevans]

If I may point out, Ron Paul barely suffered damage from not campaigning or attending debates, but Fletcher suffered more damage than Paul somehow.

It was because Bachmann took his support but I am surprised how hurt Brown was from not debating.

Also Brown should have 7 delegates not 4

Fletcher and Bachmann are not anywhere close to each other. Fletcher's support just didn't turn out is the likely reason (especially considering caucuses have much lower turnout than primaries), so I'd wonder why Paul supporters wouldn't turnout like Fletcher supporters did in some states. The only states Fletcher didn't underperform is Missouri, Nevada, and Maine.

[terp40hitch]

If I may point out, Ron Paul barely suffered damage from not campaigning or attending debates, but Fletcher suffered more damage than Paul somehow.

It was because Bachmann took his support but I am surprised how hurt Brown was from not debating.

Also Brown should have 7 delegates not 4

Fletcher and Bachmann are not anywhere close to each other. Fletcher's support just didn't turn out is the likely reason (especially considering caucuses have much lower turnout than primaries), so I'd wonder why Paul supporters wouldn't turnout like Fletcher supporters did in some states. The only states Fletcher didn't underperform is Missouri, Nevada, and Maine.

Paul might have a more energized base since he is a revolution type candidate

[Lumine]

If I may point out, Ron Paul barely suffered damage from not campaigning or attending debates, but Fletcher suffered more damage than Paul somehow.

I can see how Paul might not have suffered that much damage for not attending the debate, just like Trump, who didn't attend the debate before Iowa and still didn't get that hurt (in fact, there were polls that shown him winning the debate that he didn't attend). I'd expect something similar to have happened with many Paul supporters, because of his views and anti establishment appeal that attract energized voters. In a nutshell, many of them, specially younger energized voters, might not have cared and voted for him anyway.

But I need to say that I expected to come much more hurt for not campaigning and not attending the debate because I was busy.

That would be a minor part of the answer, but the larger picture is a combination of many of those states being well suited for Paul (accordingly, he dropped more in the states more hostile to him) and that polling is after all off by a couple of points (sometimes a bit more). It should also be remembered the local trends are not the same as national polling, which ought to be interesting next turn.

[terp40hitch]

My February and Super Tuesday Predictions

Arizona: Solid Fletcher

Michigan: Solid Fletcher

Washington: Likely Carolla

Alaska: Lean Paul

Georgia: Solid Fletcher

Idaho: Two-way Tossup between Fletcher and Bachmann

Massachusetts: Likely Brown

North Dakota: Lean Bachmann

Ohio: Threeway Tossup between Fletcher, Bachmann, and Santorum

Oklahoma: Lean Flecther

Tennesee: Likely Flecther

Vermont: Likely Paul

Virginia: Lean Brown

Wyoming: Lean Bachmann

[terp40hitch]

When will the next turn be posted

[DKrol]

I imagine he's working on the Death of Kings turn, so give him 24 hours after the DoK turn is posted.

[adamevans]

Republican Primary Polling Demographics

African- Americans
Fletcher: 70%
Paul: 10%
Carolla: 10%
Brown: 7%
Bachmann: 2%
Santorum: 1%

Hispanic- Americans
Paul: 50%
Carolla: 23%
Fletcher: 23%
Brown: 3%
Bachmann: 1%
Santorum: 0%

Veterans
Paul: 35%
Fletcher: 31%
Carolla: 14%
Bachmann: 9%
Brown: 8%
Santorum: 3%

[terp40hitch]

I would say that Paul is doing worse with veterans since the Bachmann attacks and Fletcher probably is doing better with veterans since he was a veteran himself

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I do think that Fletcher won't be doing that well with African Americans because Paul has things that align more with the beliefs of them and Hispanics.

I also think that Santorum would be doing a tad bit better (probably 3-5%) with veterans considering those who've served in the KKK.

[adamevans]

I do think that Fletcher won't be doing that well with African Americans because Paul has things that align more with the beliefs of them and Hispanics.

I also think that Santorum would be doing a tad bit better (probably 3-5%) with veterans considering those who've served in the KKK.

Fletcher has beliefs that align with Huckabee (plus his position on Legal Aid). Huckabee has one of the best black appeals of any Republican. He nearly won the black vote in one of his elections in the late 90s. I doubt Paul would really be doing that well with African- Americans. He doesn't have beliefs that really align with them.

[terp40hitch]

Republican Aligned Primary Polling Gender Demographics

Men
Fletcher:32%
Paul:25%
Carolla:18%
Bachmann: 11%
Brown: 9%
Santorum: 7%

Women
Fletcher: 34%
Carolla: 21%
Paul:20%
Bachmann: 20%
Brown: 4%
Santorum: 3%

[Jaguar4life]

Republican Aligned Primary Polling Gender Demographics

Men
Fletcher:32%
Paul:25%
Carolla:18%
Bachmann: 11%
Brown: 9%
Santorum: 7%

Women


Fletcher: 34%
Carolla: 21%
Paul:20%
Bachmann: 20%
Brown: 4%
Santorum: 3%

I expect Carolla to do better with the more moderate groups.

[terp40hitch]

when will the new turn be up?

[terp40hitch]

My February and Super Tuesday Predictions

Arizona: Solid Fletcher

Michigan: Solid Fletcher

Washington: Likely Carolla

Alaska: Lean Paul

Georgia: Solid Fletcher

Idaho: Two-way Tossup between Fletcher and Bachmann

Massachusetts: Likely Brown

North Dakota: Lean Bachmann

Ohio: Threeway Tossup between Fletcher, Bachmann, and Santorum

Oklahoma: Lean Flecther

Tennesee: Likely Flecther

Vermont: Likely Paul

Virginia: Lean Brown

Wyoming: Lean Bachmann

I don't think Wyoming is a very big tea party state. I'd also see Vermont as more of a Lean or Likely Fletcher since it voted for Romney by a relatively big margin in 2012.

I was thinking Vermont is going to Paul since it has a large libertarian/Independent vote and Two delegates went to Rand Paul in 2016