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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Gravis Polling: Nelson 44 (D)-Scott 39 (R)
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Author Topic: Gravis Polling: Nelson 44 (D)-Scott 39 (R)  (Read 2857 times)
Hoosier_Nick
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« on: December 27, 2017, 05:46:35 pm »

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/27/gravis-marketing-2018-florida-poll-results/
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2017, 05:51:19 pm »

Nelson will win.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2017, 05:51:25 pm »

Makes more sense than Scott leading.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2017, 05:52:39 pm »

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Free Bird
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2017, 05:57:48 pm »


I mean in the end yeah probably, it is Bill Nelson after all, but is there any reason why polling has been so all over the place for this one?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2017, 06:11:06 pm »


I mean in the end yeah probably, it is Bill Nelson after all, but is there any reason why polling has been so all over the place for this one?

Florida is a huge state and there have not been many high quality pollsters testing the race.
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adrac
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2017, 06:16:34 pm »

I don't see Nelson losing in this environment.
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2017, 06:18:42 pm »

He probably wins like this in the end against Scott.
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King Lear
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2017, 06:22:46 pm »

Nelson will be facing an extremely tough race next year against Rick Scott, at this point Iíd give a slight edge to Rick Scott, however that doesnít mean Nelson canít squeak it out. To me this race should be a national bellwether for Democrats, if their winning it their probably holding Down republican gains in the senate while if their losing it their probably facing a wipeout.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2017, 06:25:22 pm »


I would hope by a bigger margin considering how easily he won in 2012 in a more neutral environemnt.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2017, 06:31:34 pm »


I would hope by a bigger margin considering how easily he won in 2012 in a more neutral environemnt.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.

That's true, but 2012 was also a D+1 GCB. Anyway, I suspect it doesn't matter and that Scott passes on the race instead of blowing his childrens' inheritance.

That'd be pretty sweet since it'd make the race safe D.
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Holmes
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« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2017, 07:14:16 pm »

2017 golden standard Gravis has spoken
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Mondale
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« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2017, 07:24:36 pm »

Nelson was never going to lose
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2017, 07:40:40 pm »


I would hope by a bigger margin considering how easily he won in 2012 in a more neutral environemnt.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.

That's true, but 2012 was also a D+1 GCB. Anyway, I suspect it doesn't matter and that Scott passes on the race instead of blowing his childrens' inheritance.

That'd be pretty sweet since it'd make the race safe D.

Meh, I'd say Likely D. Rick Scott saying No probably means someone like David Jolly jumps in, who wouldn't have much of  a chance, but you never count anything out in swing state Florida. Republicans aren't going to actually nominate Augustus Sol Invictus.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2017, 07:51:40 pm »

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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2017, 07:52:51 pm »


I would hope by a bigger margin considering how easily he won in 2012 in a more neutral environemnt.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.

That's true, but 2012 was also a D+1 GCB. Anyway, I suspect it doesn't matter and that Scott passes on the race instead of blowing his childrens' inheritance.

That'd be pretty sweet since it'd make the race safe D.

Meh, I'd say Likely D. Rick Scott saying No probably means someone like David Jolly jumps in, who wouldn't have much of  a chance, but you never count anything out in swing state Florida. Republicans aren't going to actually nominate Augustus Sol Invictus.

Jolly's been pretty anti-Trump, no?
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henster
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« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2017, 07:59:45 pm »

FL is such a transient state its hard for any incumbent to really make an impression. How much has FL grown since Nelson was last on the ballot? Nelson seems to have to reintroduce himself to voters everytime he's up.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2017, 08:03:40 pm »

Nelson will win this race by double digits in the end.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2017, 08:05:08 pm »

Nelson will win this race by double digits in the end.

Quoted for posterity
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2017, 08:05:12 pm »
« Edited: December 27, 2017, 08:07:04 pm by Holmes »

Nelson will win this race by double digits in the end.

Against some random R, probably. Against Scott, mid single digits.

In 2012, Nelson won by 13% against a random Republican in a good year. 2018 might end up being a better year for Democrats.
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#Solid4096
Solid4096
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2017, 08:05:41 pm »


I would hope by a bigger margin considering how easily he won in 2012 in a more neutral environemnt.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.

That's true, but 2012 was also a D+1 GCB. Anyway, I suspect it doesn't matter and that Scott passes on the race instead of blowing his childrens' inheritance.

I think that you are correct; Scott is not going to spend so much money on a Senate Race.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2017, 08:27:21 pm »

Even if Nelson wins, Scott could make Democrats waste resources here.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2017, 08:40:51 pm »

Nelson will be facing an extremely tough race next year against Rick Scott, at this point Iíd give a slight edge to Rick Scott, however that doesnít mean Nelson canít squeak it out. To me this race should be a national bellwether for Democrats, if their winning it their probably holding Down republican gains in the senate while if their losing it their probably facing a wipeout.

Ha ha sure Mr 'Moore by 10'.
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LeRaposa
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« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2017, 10:09:21 pm »

Nelson will win because he is Bill Nelson.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2017, 10:35:21 pm »

Nelson will win because he is Bill Nelson.
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