What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites?

[Calthrina950]

As in the title. What would the electoral map, and the state-by-state results, of the 2012 election have looked like if Democrats had won 59% of the white vote, in addition to 93% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics, and 73% of Asians (these latter numbers being exactly the same as actually happened). What would the margins of victory have looked like? What would have been the Democratic percentage of the popular vote been? And which states would have stayed Republican?

[Mr. Smith]

Hello 1980 EV Numbers, hello 1964 PV numbers most likely.

[Calthrina950]

So EC: 489-49 and PV: 61-38. That seems reasonable. But why would West Virginia and Kentucky remain Republican while the rest of the South would turn Democratic? What would be Obama's closest state wins? And the same for Romney?

[Mr. Smith]

So EC: 489-49 and PV: 61-38. That seems reasonable. But why would West Virginia and Kentucky remain Republican while the rest of the South would turn Democratic? What would be Obama's closest state wins? And the same for Romney?

The Deep South has enough of a black population in tandem with the WWC, Tennessee has the Memphis area.

Kentucky doesn't have a Memphis.

Come to think of it, The Dakotas should've flipped too.

As for the closest...idk

Arkansas 0.52%
Kansas 1%

[Adam Griffin]

My gut says everything but WY, OK & WV.

I could see the latter two actually flipping, but at the same time, I could see a very inelastic LA of all places be a GOP holdout even in a 500+ EV win. In a normal election, UT would be very close one way or another. ID & AL would be fairly close as well: probably low single-digit Dem wins.

[AGA]

According to 538's swing-o-matic, if Obama got 59% of whites and all else stayed the same, it would look like this.

Utah, Wyoming, and NE-03 are quite close.

Obama wins the PV 65-33.

[Calthrina950]

Why would it be those interior Western states that would hold out the most? And what would the county-level vote for Democrats look like? Would they actually take the majority of the nation's counties, and not just be confined to metropolitan areas, suburbs, minority counties, etc?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Uh folks, Johnson got 59% of the white vote in '64 in a much less racially diverse nation and ended up with 44 states, so I have to think Obama would do even better than that. Chrome's map is probably close to the reality.

 

[MLM]

RCP Demographic Calculator gives this map;

EV: 535-3
PV: 65.7-34.3

This only accounts for it being a two way race which may have slightly affect the results.

[Calthrina950]

My questions above? How would they apply to this scenario?

[AGA]

Why would it be those interior Western states that would hold out the most? And what would the county-level vote for Democrats look like? Would they actually take the majority of the nation's counties, and not just be confined to metropolitan areas, suburbs, minority counties, etc?

In this scenario, Republicans would lose every racial demographic, but whites would still be their best demographic, meaning that they would do best in very white states. Whites don't vote the same way all across the country as they are very liberal in New England and the Pacific Northwest while very conservative in the South and Inland West. Republicans would still be able to win the state of Utah because it is both very white, and whites in that state vote more Republican than they do nationwide.

In this landslide victory, Democrats would definitely win the vast majority of counties because they get 66% of the popular vote. In 1964, Johnson got a bit over 60% of the popular vote and won the vast majority of counties as a Democrat. Of course, they would win by greater margins in urban areas.

[Calthrina950]

So would Democrats then obtain very high percentages in the states of the Northeast? How strong would they be in D.C.? And in which states would Republicans be the strongest? In other words, which states would be the close states of this election?

[AGA]

So would Democrats then obtain very high percentages in the states of the Northeast? How strong would they be in D.C.? And in which states would Republicans be the strongest? In other words, which states would be the close states of this election?

Both the map posted by me and the one posted by MLM do a good job of showing where Democrats would be strongest. The dark red states are the most Democratic ones, and the shading is in increments of 10%. Democrats would be very strong in the Northeast as they would obtain over 70% of the vote there.

In DC, Democrats would obtain 92% of the vote in DC according to 538's swing-o-matic. While this would be their strongest state/district, that number barely any higher than the 91% obtained by Obama in 2012. This is because whites in DC already vote more than 80% for Democrats so there is not much room to make gains there.

Since this is a Democratic landslide, only the most Republican states would be close. Utah, Romney's best state in 2012, would be won by the Republicans by only around 2 points. Wyoming, Romney's second best state, would actually be won by the Democrats by around 3 points.

[Calthrina950]

Based upon the facts provided above, and the maps that I see, I reckon Wyoming and Utah would be won with pluralities, not absolute majorities of the vote. It's amazing how dramatically things change if one or more demographics are tinkered with.

[RINO Tom]

Uh, what would Romney's results look like if you just magically added 20% to each of his minority totals?

[AGA]

Uh, what would Romney's results look like if you just magically added 20% to each of his minority totals?

From 538:

Romney: 312
Obama: 226

Romney wins the PV 53-45.3.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

According to 538's swing-o-matic, if Obama got 59% of whites and all else stayed the same, it would look like this.

Utah, Wyoming, and NE-03 are quite close.

Obama wins the PV 65-33.

I refuse to believe that Obama would win NE-3 if he got 59% of the white vote.

[Adam Griffin]

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Titanium D Great Plains!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Uh, what would Romney's results look like if you just magically added 20% to each of his minority totals?

From 538:

Romney: 312
Obama: 226

Romney wins the PV 53-45.3.

he did better in PA than WI?

[SWE]

Uh, what would Romney's results look like if you just magically added 20% to each of his minority totals?

From 538:

Romney: 312
Obama: 226

Romney wins the PV 53-45.3.

he did better in PA than WI?

Yes?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I removed all 3rd parties, and gave Obama 10% better in Whites and gave Romney 10% better in Minorities.

[bagelman]

Since OP's question has already been answered, I decided to do a really cool math experiment: adjusting the minority party share to neutralize the white change:

Dems win 59% of whites, blacks are perfect tossup voters, all other races are >70% GOP

Dems win here 273-265 by barely defending Kansas and the Virginias. The GOP got lucky to get this close, with razor thin wins in CA, NV, MO, KY, TN, and NC.

Turning up White turnout flips CA, turning it down flips KS and gives it to the GOP.

Turning down Hispanic turnout also flips CA (faster), turning it up to 2/3rds eventually flips KS.

Turning down Asian/other turnout flips CA and NV.