What state will trend most to the Democrat in 2020?

[PoliticalShelter]

What state do you think will trend most to the Democrat in 2020.

Personally I think it will be a deep republican state that is very elastic. So probably a state like North Dakota.

[Dr. MB]

I think depending on the candidate the Democrat can win Alaska in 2020.

[I’m not Stu]

Texas or Arizona.

[Skill and Chance]

Texas or Arizona.

This.  Maybe Alaska as well.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Apparently Alaska has a very high rate of sexual assault. If Gillibrand is the nominee and she keeps with the metoo thing and talks about trying to combat it, she could win Alaska.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Georgia.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Apparently Alaska has a very high rate of sexual assault. If Gillibrand is the nominee and she keeps with the metoo thing and talks about trying to combat it, she could win Alaska.

Really? I've never heard about this.

[TDAS04]

Georgia.

I doubt it.  The Deep South is the most inelastic region.

I'm guessing Alaska.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

As others have said, probably a small, overwhelmingly GOP rural state. the Dakotas are good candidates, or Montana.

[Orser67]

Personally I think it will be a deep republican state that is very elastic. So probably a state like North Dakota.

I agree with this. In 2008, Obama won 44 and 47.5% of the vote in each of MT, SD, and ND; Clinton won 27% in ND, 32% in SD, and 36% in MT. I could see these states swinging strongly towards Democrats but still not being competitive.

Among swing(ish) states, I could see OH and IA being much more competitive than in 2016. Democrats could get an extra 5 percent in either state and still come up short.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Iowa, ND, and SD really dislike Trump. He's too much of a demagogue for them.

[heatcharger]

Iowa, ND, and SD really dislike Trump. He's too much of a demagogue for them.

We had one of those election things last year where he was on the ballot, and the Monsanto-riddled corn people decided, No, Trump was not too much of a demagogue for them.

Anyway yeah, I think Democrats will get a decent sized dead cat bounce in those states actually. ND in particular since a lot of the oil workers are moving out.

[TML]

If we're talking about individual electoral votes, then I'd also consider Northern Maine as another place which could trend very significantly (by 10+ points) to the Democrats.

[Xing]

Probably one of the Dakotas, simply because they're very prone to massive swings. Depending on the candidate, Democrats might get a decent dead cat bounce in West Virginia.

[YE]

ME-02 or Iowa.

[I’m not Stu]

Dark horse candidates: California (where whites are heavily trending Democratic) and Ohio (elastic state).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Warren is the nominee I'd say Montana, with Alaska being a close second.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Warren is the nominee I'd say Montana, with Alaska being a close second.

Why does Warren have special appeal in Montana?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Warren is the nominee I'd say Montana, with Alaska being a close second.

Why does Warren have special appeal in Montana?

I think her populist attitude appeals to many Mountain West Libertarians. Obama and Sanders won that state in their respective primaries. Brian Schweitzer, who reminds me of Warren, is very left-libertarian leaning, too, and won the 2006 gubernatorial election in a landslide.
But maybe I'm just mistaken, since I have never been to Montana.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona and it will be a Democratic state once McCain retires, with a new Democratic Senator that takes over for Flake.

[Young Conservative]

If Warren is the nominee I'd say Montana, with Alaska being a close second.

Why does Warren have special appeal in Montana?

I think her populist attitude appeals to many Mountain West Libertarians.

She is horribly elitist and out of touch.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If Warren is the nominee I'd say Montana, with Alaska being a close second.

Why does Warren have special appeal in Montana?

I think her populist attitude appeals to many Mountain West Libertarians.

She is horribly elitist and out of touch.

I don't particularly like Warren, but she is certainly not elitist.

[MarkD]

I think her populist attitude appeals to many Mountain West Libertarians. Obama and Sanders won that state in their respective primaries. Brian Schweitzer, who reminds me of Warren, is very left-libertarian leaning, too, and won the 2006 gubernatorial election in a landslide.
But maybe I'm just mistaken, since I have never been to Montana.

But populism and libertarianism are practically opposite philosophies.
Who wins the primary is no indication who is likely going to win or come close in the general election.
The gubernatorial elections in Montana occur in leap years. Schweitzer won gubernatorial elections in 2004 and 2008.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

one of these

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

one of these

Why Louisiana? It isn't super elastic, and the demographics for democrats aren't rapidly improving.