Portillo Moments in your country

[mileslunn]

In British politics, the loss of Michael Portillo in Enfield Southgate in the 1997 Labour landslide is often called a Portillo moment as this was a very safe Tory seat then and was not one many expected them to lose.  As such Portillo moment has become a term used for major upsets.  Below are some I can think of here in Canada for the elections I have followed.

Canada 2004

-  Tories win Essex which was normally a Liberal-NDP swing with the Tories haven't winning here since 1958
-  Tories win Regina-Qu'Appelle which ironically was by the current Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and this was a very safe NDP riding
-  Liberals win North Vancouver which was seen as a strong small c conservative riding at the time.

Canada 2006

- Tories win Jonquiere-Alma which is in the heart of separatist territory
-  Tories win Winnipeg South which was a long shot although the Liberal candidate Reg Alcock spent most of his time stumping for other candidates

Canada 2008

-  NDP 2007 by-election in Outremont by Thomas Mulcair in a very safe Liberal riding
- Tories pick up both Kitchener Centre and Kitchener-Waterloo which Liberals had won easily in previous elections
-  NDP wins Sudbury which unlike Northern Ontario ridings had been fairly safe Liberal one.
-  NDP wins Edmonton-Strathcona thus winning in a seat in Alberta which is Canada's most conservative province

Canada 2011

-  Conservatives win Labrador which had only gone Conservative once before and normally they finished in a distant third.
-  Several Portillo moments with NDP wins across Quebec in areas one wouldn't expect
-  Tories win Scarborough Centre, Don Valley East, and Mississauga East-Cooksville which were all safe Liberal ridings
-  NDP wins Scarborough-Rouge River which was seen as one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country

Canada 2015

-  Liberals win Fundy-Royal, Tobique-Mactaquac, and New Brunswick Southwest which were all seen as very safe Tory ridings
-  Liberals win Hastings-Lennox and Addington which is a rural Ontario riding and with few exceptions Liberals have largely been shut out of rural Ontario especially in ridings with similar profiles to this.
-  Liberals win Toronto-Danforth which is a very safe NDP riding and the former riding of the late NDP leader, Jack Layton
-  Liberals win Kelowna-Lake Country and Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon which were both seen as solidly conservative ridings in a fairly religious area.
-  Liberal 2017 by-election win in Lac Saint Jean which is a solid nationalist area of Quebec and Liberals are the most staunchly federalist party.

Provincial ones

-  BC Liberal wins of Surrey-Fleetwood and Fraser-Nicola in 2013 as both went NDP by almost ten points in 2009 and most polls showed the NDP was expected to win in 2013. 
-  There were a few near Portillo moments in the 2017 election in the Lower Mainland like Vancouver-False Creek and Richmond-Queensborough but the NDP fell just short of winning those normally safe BC Liberal ridings
-  Several and too many to count in 2015 in Alberta where NDP win in many areas few expected they ever would.
-  Ontario Liberal win in Durham in 2014 which is a very safe PC riding normally and wasn't even close in the previous two elections
-  Ontario PC by-election win in Sault Ste. Marie and Scarborough-Rouge River which are both ridings they tend to not fare to well in.
-  CAQ by-election win in Louis-Hebert by a landslide which is normally a safe Quebec Liberal riding.

Abroad

-  Obama winning Indiana in 2008 which Bush won by over 20 points four years earlier
-  Doug Jones win in Alabama special election which is one of the reddest states.
-  Labour winning Kensington and Canterbury in the 2017 election which are both constituencies that have voted consistently Tory as long as the constituencies have existed.

So interested to hear on Portillo moments from various countries where contributors live.  These should be actual constituencies/congressional districts not overall results and ones that were truly surprises and against history.

[mileslunn]

I would add a few big ones.

- David Peterson loses his seat in the 1990 Ontario election when he began the election with a massive lead, but lost unexpectedly to the NDP.

- Don Getty loses his seat in the 1989 Alberta election despite his party winning.

- Christy Clark losing her seat in 2013 while her party win the election. Her losing her seat was not a shock, but winning provincially was as polls said differently. Though it was generally assumed if she lost her riding her party would lose.

[mileslunn]

In terms of high profile one could argue in Canada in 2015 you could have had three Portillo moments with Peter MacKay, John Baird, and James Moore who were all high profile cabinet members and all potential successors and the Liberals picked up all three of their ridings.  However all three retired from politics thus avoiding the embarrassment of losing their seats.  To be fair John Baird's riding was fairly marginal although he could switched to Nepean from Ottawa West-Nepean which was more Tory friendly, but both MacKay and Moore were in normally safe Tory ridings so the Liberal pickups of those two was a sign of how big a win was coming.  Especially MacKay's as unlike the UK we don't count all the ballots before presenting them, rather numbers are released after each ballot box is counted so MacKay's would have come early due to the time zone and by the time Moore's riding was called it was clear the Liberals were on their way to a majority whereas it wasn't when MacKay's was called.

[mileslunn]

Another one I can think of is the Tory pick up of Gordon as that involved defeating the SNP former leader Alex Salmond and also was a sign of strong Tory gains in Scotland despite their losses in England and Wales as often Scotland doesn't follow the national trend.

[mileslunn]

How about the loss of Ben Gummer as I believe he was the highest profile cabinet minister to be defeated in 2017.  Yes his constituency was always a marginal one, but most expected the Tories to gain seats and Labour to lose them, not the other way around.  Also had Amber Rudd lost her seat that would have been a Portillo moment, although won't be if she loses next time around considering how close it was and will probably be targeted much more aggressively next time around. 

A few potential Portillo moments based on trends are Boris Johnson losing his seat (unlikely), Iain Duncan Smith losing (very possible), and Kenneth Clarke losing (unlikely under the current boundaries, but quite possible under the new ones as the northern part of his constituency is more suburban than rural thus Labour and Conservatives run even there, his strength is more in the rural parts which are becoming less important).  For Labour, Dennis Skinner losing his seat would be a Portillo moment and I believe the Tories had their best showing ever in his constituency although 2017 was the first election they actively targeted his and not sure if they will next time around.

Here in Canada this next year we could have a few Portillo moments.  In the upcoming Ontario election, Wynne losing her seat would be the ultimate one (and could very well happen), but also Charles Sousa (finance minister losing his is another).  If the PCs shoot themselves in the foot, Brown losing his seat is one as his constituency barely went Tory last time around or federally but both were bad elections for the Tories.  In Quebec, if the CAQ wins a majority you will probably get a number of them. 

In the US, not as familiar but if it is a Democrat wave, you could see some.  Loss of Roy Moore in the Alabama special election was one.

[mileslunn]

The Portillo election saw a measly 17 point swing. That's not much more than the national swing for all of Canada in 2015. Canadian voters are much more volatile than Britons.

I think part of that is you have the Tories on the right, Liberals in the centre, and NDP on the left so its easy for those in the Tories or NDP to swing over to the Liberals and vice versa when they get tired.  In BC where you have more like the British system, then swings of that size are quite unusual save the 2001 and 2005 elections.  I noticed when the Liberal Democrats were stronger it was much easier to get a massive swing as they can peel away soft Tories and soft Labour whereas the gap between the Tories and Labour is large enough philosophically thus why you don't get big swings.  I suspect if in Canada it was between the NDP and Tories, you wouldn't have swings like you see now nearly as often.

[mileslunn]

I suspect we will see a fair number this coming Thursday in Ontario.  I think either Kathleen Wynne or Doug Ford losing their seats would fit as examples.  I think the former is far more likely though than the latter.