Portillo Moments in your country

[Torrain]

The UK Conservatives keeps having "almost-Portillo" moments. Not as exciting as an actual loss, but point to an underlying vulnerability next time their not in the lead.

In 2017, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd came within 400 votes of losing her previously comfortable seat, and in 2019, then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had his majority slashed to 1,000 votes.

If Labour win, become the largest party in 2024, the weirdness of the UK political map means that we're almost assured a new Portillo moment.

After the Lib Dems and SNP both lost their leaders in Westminster, and Labour lost their Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary in 2015 , and a bunch of Shad-Cab members in 2019, it seems like the Tories are due a turn. (Also worth noting that Labour stalwarts like Yvette Cooper and Jon Tricket came within a hair's-breadth of their own Portillo moment in 2019. It can't be understaded just how devastating that election was for them. There's a reason it utterly destroyed what was left of the Corbyn project).

[Torrain]

And of course many thought Rifkind might lose in 1992 - his defeat five years later was a few things but not really a shock at all.

Aye, when Dimbleby is running through vulnerable candidates on election night ‘92, Rifkind is at the top of the list. So while losing a Foreign Secretary on election night is usually a shock, it was highly likely that a Labour government would dislodge Rifkind. Major promoted him to FCA Secretary knowing that ‘92-‘97 could well be his last term in Parliament.