Portillo Moments in your country

[Don Vito Corleone]

Perhaps Dave Barrett losing in 1993?

[MaxQue]

Perhaps Dave Barrett losing in 1993?

Getting rid of that bigot was a gain for the NDP, through.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Perhaps Dave Barrett losing in 1993?

Getting rid of that bigot was a gain for the NDP, through.

Maybe, but it still fits the definition of a High Profile incumbent unexpectedly losing his seat.

Also, what makes you call Dave Barrett a bigot?

[136or142]

Perhaps Dave Barrett losing in 1993?

Also Dave Barrett losing in 1975 to some anonymous Social Credit car dealer. (I think George Kerster was his name.)  If I recall correctly, the story was somewhat strange in that the Social Credit nominee was originally going to be the brother of the person who was ultimately nominated.

Much bigger though was New Democrat Margaret Mitchell losing to Liberal Anna Terrana in Vancouver East in 1993.  Vancouver East is probably the safest of the few safe seats that the Federal NDP have in the entire country.  (Right now I'd say the two Windsor ridings are the next safest.)

Others:
Saskatchewan NDP Attorney General Roy Romanow in 1982 losing to some anonymous young (I think 19 years old) gas station attendent. Romanow also lost by around 19 votes. That entire general election result was a massive surprise.

Not an incumbent at the time, but Progressive Conservative Party leader (and briefly former Prime Minister) Arthur Meighen  losing to anonymous high school history teacher New Democrat Joe Noseworthy in a 1942 by-election in York South.

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I wouldn't consider the 2004 election result in North Vancouver to be an enormous upset.  The Federal Liberal Party also had some historic strength in North Vancouver (not enough to win but the NDP was basically non existent in the riding, so it was a two party race) and their candidate was the popular mayor of the District of North Vancouver, Don Bell.  The incumbent Conservative M.P, Ted White, although generally regarded as a nice guy, was also fairly flaky.

[mileslunn]

I suspect we will see a fair number this coming Thursday in Ontario.  I think either Kathleen Wynne or Doug Ford losing their seats would fit as examples.  I think the former is far more likely though than the latter.

[MaxQue]

Perhaps Dave Barrett losing in 1993?

Getting rid of that bigot was a gain for the NDP, through.

Maybe, but it still fits the definition of a High Profile incumbent unexpectedly losing his seat.

Also, what makes you call Dave Barrett a bigot?

His opposition to Lake Meech and Francophones in general (and being a supporter of the lie that's "western alienation").

[Flyersfan232]

Eric Cantor in 2014, for sure, is one.
Mark Udall in 2014 and George Allen in 2006 also qualify, imo

kander in 2016 prehaps?

[Blair]

Eric Cantor in 2014, for sure, is one.
Mark Udall in 2014 and George Allen in 2006 also qualify, imo

kander in 2016 prehaps?

If you're referring to Jason Kander him losing was not at all a Portillo moment.

[LabourJersey]

The only American equivalent to a Portillo moment was Cantor's loss to Brat in 2014. Granted that wasn't so much a sign of an electoral wipeout as it was a sign of an ideological loss by the GOP establishment to the extreme anti-immigrant right-wing.

[brucejoel99]

The only American equivalent to a Portillo moment was Cantor's loss to Brat in 2014. Granted that wasn't so much a sign of an electoral wipeout as it was a sign of an ideological loss by the GOP establishment to the extreme anti-immigrant right-wing.

Well, there's also Crowley's loss to AOC earlier this year.

[Ban my account ffs!]

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Mario Cuomo and Ann Richards (two would-be presidents) both lost their re-election attempts for Governor.

Neither was considered safe, thus it wasn't unexpected, like Portillo moment.

[Former President tack50]

While not fully official yet, you could argue the recient Andalusian election was a Portillo moment. No one expected the left to lose its majority for the first time since the end of the dictatorship. Let alone with the help of a far right party and let alone by a comfortable margin (50-59)

In fact, this was probably the most unexpected election result since at the very least the 2004 general election, but at least 2004 saw a terrorist attack days before the election. No one could have predicted Andalucia.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Joe Biden's first election in 1972 was definiticely a Portillo Moment. He was a 29-years old freshman county councilmember who received a Democratic nomination because no one else wanted this due to a popular Republican incumbent running. He received very little assistance from the party and trailed 30 percent in summer. Then the election day came and everybody were like DUDE, WHAT THE F**K JUST HAPPENED IN DELAWARE?

[Continential]

Josh Frydenberg in Australia.

[Torrain]

The UK Conservatives keeps having "almost-Portillo" moments. Not as exciting as an actual loss, but point to an underlying vulnerability next time their not in the lead.

In 2017, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd came within 400 votes of losing her previously comfortable seat, and in 2019, then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had his majority slashed to 1,000 votes.

If Labour win, become the largest party in 2024, the weirdness of the UK political map means that we're almost assured a new Portillo moment.

After the Lib Dems and SNP both lost their leaders in Westminster, and Labour lost their Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary in 2015 , and a bunch of Shad-Cab members in 2019, it seems like the Tories are due a turn. (Also worth noting that Labour stalwarts like Yvette Cooper and Jon Tricket came within a hair's-breadth of their own Portillo moment in 2019. It can't be understaded just how devastating that election was for them. There's a reason it utterly destroyed what was left of the Corbyn project).

[Alcibiades]

The UK Conservatives keeps having "almost-Portillo" moments. Not as exciting as an actual loss, but point to an underlying vulnerability next time their not in the lead.

In 2017, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd came within 400 votes of losing her previously comfortable seat, and in 2019, then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had his majority slashed to 1,000 votes.

If Labour win, become the largest party in 2024, the weirdness of the UK political map means that we're almost assured a new Portillo moment.

After the Lib Dems and SNP both lost their leaders in Westminster, and Labour lost their Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary in 2015 , and a bunch of Shad-Cab members in 2019, it seems like the Tories are due a turn. (Also worth noting that Labour stalwarts like Yvette Cooper and Jon Tricket came within a hair's-breadth of their own Portillo moment in 2019. It can't be understaded just how devastating that election was for them. There's a reason it utterly destroyed what was left of the Corbyn project).

I would be extremely surprised if Raab kept his seat at the next election. So that’s one we can probably expect to add already to the board for the Tories.

[HillGoose]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

[parochial boy]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

[S019]

Well one district produced two in 10 years: Phil Crane's loss to Melissa Bean when he was a long serving member in a very Republican district and then Bean's surprising loss to Joe Walsh after the district shifted strongly to the left in the late 2000s. Needless to say, the seat is obviously safely Democratic now. Also Steve Russell's loss in 2018 was really not predicted by anyone.

[ReallySuper]

Kentucky Speaker of the House Greg Stumbo losing his seat in 2016 by six points after having won it in landslides in 2008-10 and unopposed in 2012-14. Particularly surprising considering it has since gone back to being a Democratic seat in 2018 and 2020, by safe margins both times, unlike most of the seats the Democrats lost when they lost the majority.

[Boobs]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

Dude this might be the first post of yours I vehemently disagreed with. I’m actually almost offended.

[Continential]

Josh Frydenberg in Australia.

Also, Kristina Keneally since she lost.

[CumbrianLefty]

The UK Conservatives keeps having "almost-Portillo" moments. Not as exciting as an actual loss, but point to an underlying vulnerability next time their not in the lead.

In 2017, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd came within 400 votes of losing her previously comfortable seat, and in 2019, then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had his majority slashed to 1,000 votes.

A now mostly forgotten example of this was George Younger nearly losing Ayr in 1987.

[Continential]

Was Malcolm Rifkind’s loss considered to be an upset since he was Foreign Secretary?