Portillo Moments in your country

[parochial boy]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

Dude this might be the first post of yours I vehemently disagreed with. I’m actually almost offended.

A hollowed out panini filled with chicken nuggets, fries, processed cheese and six other types of indeterminate gloop. Food of the gods.

Way better than your « fresh ingredients »; « herbs »; « actually worrying about what it tastes like » that you get with Mexican tacos.

[Boobs]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

Dude this might be the first post of yours I vehemently disagreed with. I’m actually almost offended.

A hollowed out panini filled with chicken nuggets, fries, processed cheese and six other types of indeterminate gloop. Food of the gods.

Way better than your « fresh ingredients »; « herbs »; « actually worrying about what it tastes like » that you get with Mexican tacos.

You have clearly never gone to an Americanized fast food taco joint while stoned or drunk.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The UK Conservatives keeps having "almost-Portillo" moments. Not as exciting as an actual loss, but point to an underlying vulnerability next time their not in the lead.

In 2017, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd came within 400 votes of losing her previously comfortable seat, and in 2019, then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had his majority slashed to 1,000 votes.

If Labour win, become the largest party in 2024, the weirdness of the UK political map means that we're almost assured a new Portillo moment.

After the Lib Dems and SNP both lost their leaders in Westminster, and Labour lost their Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary in 2015 , and a bunch of Shad-Cab members in 2019, it seems like the Tories are due a turn. (Also worth noting that Labour stalwarts like Yvette Cooper and Jon Tricket came within a hair's-breadth of their own Portillo moment in 2019. It can't be understaded just how devastating that election was for them. There's a reason it utterly destroyed what was left of the Corbyn project).

Dennis Skinner losing in 2019 as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not really, most people were surprised to learn he was still even an MP let alone running for re-election. And o/c he was a career backbencher.

[parochial boy]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

Dude this might be the first post of yours I vehemently disagreed with. I’m actually almost offended.

A hollowed out panini filled with chicken nuggets, fries, processed cheese and six other types of indeterminate gloop. Food of the gods.

Way better than your « fresh ingredients »; « herbs »; « actually worrying about what it tastes like » that you get with Mexican tacos.

You have clearly never gone to an Americanized fast food taco joint while stoned or drunk.

Tell you what, we go get blackout drunk of 1664 and Chartreuse in Grenoble and then go to O'Tacos. Then we go do the same on Dos Equis and Tequila and go the the equivalent tacos place in San Antonio and then we can make an honest judgement on which is worse.

[Boobs]

what about tortilla moments tho 🤔

Lyonnais Tacos are better than Mexican ones

Dude this might be the first post of yours I vehemently disagreed with. I’m actually almost offended.

A hollowed out panini filled with chicken nuggets, fries, processed cheese and six other types of indeterminate gloop. Food of the gods.

Way better than your « fresh ingredients »; « herbs »; « actually worrying about what it tastes like » that you get with Mexican tacos.

You have clearly never gone to an Americanized fast food taco joint while stoned or drunk.

Tell you what, we go get blackout drunk of 1664 and Chartreuse in Grenoble and then go to O'Tacos. Then we go do the same on Dos Equis and Tequila and go the the equivalent tacos place in San Antonio and then we can make an honest judgement on which is worse.

If this is an invitation, it's one I'll gladly accept. Though I can't promise I know the next time I'll be on that side of the Atlantic.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I am not sure if this deserves to be described as a "Portillo moment" but Martha Coakley losing in Massachusetts in the 2010 special election was extremely shocking. This not just a MA senate seat, it was Ted Kennedy's seat, and Martha Coakley was no Roy Moore.

Clearly, since this is a "by-election", saying it is a Portillo moment is a bit weird but it's hard to think of a special election that is more important than this one. It nearly sank the ACA, it was the Obama administration's first humiliation etc.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Was Malcolm Rifkind’s loss considered to be an upset since he was Foreign Secretary?

My definition would be: a high profile person losing a seat which indicates what a bad election it was for the party, exceeding even many of the more pessimistic predictions. Edinburgh Pentlands IIRC only needed a swing of around 5% so the Tories could have lost it whilst still only having a modest defeat (or perhaps keeping it to a hung parliament) so it wouldn't count IMO.

In 2015 it's Balls for Labour and Cable for the Lib Dems. Each were high profile enough that they were also contestants on Strictly at points and neither would have lost if it had been even a disappointing result for their respective parties.  

[CumbrianLefty]

And of course many thought Rifkind might lose in 1992 - his defeat five years later was a few things but not really a shock at all.

[Torrain]

And of course many thought Rifkind might lose in 1992 - his defeat five years later was a few things but not really a shock at all.

Aye, when Dimbleby is running through vulnerable candidates on election night ‘92, Rifkind is at the top of the list. So while losing a Foreign Secretary on election night is usually a shock, it was highly likely that a Labour government would dislodge Rifkind. Major promoted him to FCA Secretary knowing that ‘92-‘97 could well be his last term in Parliament.

[Continential]

Rahul Gandhi losing in Amethi could count as one, thinking about it.

[morgieb]

Does Frydenberg count as one?

Boebert counts as a near miss.

[Continential]

Also, SPM.

[Mike88]

The Portuguese general election of 2022 was a total Portillo moment. Polls and pundits were expecting a very narrow win for either of the two main parties, but exit polls predicted a commanding victory for the PS, which ended the evening with an absolute majority in the their pocket.

Adding to this, the PS was able to win strong PSD bastions by narrow margins: Bragança by just 15 votes, Vila Real by 1,354 votes and Leiria by 2,475 votes.

The September 2021 local elections also had its Portillo moment: The defeat of the PS in Lisbon to Carlos Moedas (PSD) against all predictions.

[Joseph Cao]

Well I'm not sure how many of these posts actually count as Portillo moments in the definition that cp used. I can certainly think of many moments in Hong Kong where a leader is defeated unexpectedly and embarrassingly – kind of hard not to in that electoral system, at least before everything happened. Plenty in Malaysia as well.

I suppose the purest Portillo moment in either country is the Penang state election of 2008. Up until then the BN affiliate party Gerakan had been ruling the state for decades (and in fact they were admitted to BN in the first place because of their ability to win a very important state). But Penang at the time was… going downhill is a charitable way to put it. Gerakan's Koh Tsu Koon had been chief minister for 18 years and wanted to go to Parliament, and going into the election he wanted his lieutenant Teng Hock Nam to succeed him, but the federal BN leadership wanted Teng Chang Yeow. They couldn't come to an agreement and throughout the election their squabbling was very obvious when compared with the opposition's unity behind DAP's Lim Guan Eng. It got clearer as the campaign went on that DAP might actually have a shot at forming the state government but nobody was expecting to defeat either of the Tengs.

On election night one of the first seats reported was Teng Hock Nam's suburban Pulau Tikus, which fell by an unexpectedly large margin to the opposition, and a little while later Teng Chang Yeow also lost by an equally large margin in his George Town seat to DAP state chairman Chow Kon Yeow. So that took out both of Koh's successors within about an hour. Then Koh lost in his parliamentary bid as well, in the midst of BN losing several seats there, and Gerakan was essentially wiped out by 9pm and we got the famous picture of Koh looking shellshocked at his press conference. Teng Chang Yeow became state BN chairman a little further down the road and led BN to its worst state result ever in 2013. The other Teng dropped off the radar. BN is essentially a nonentity in Penang state government now but it began with the complete wipeout of forty years of Gerakan rule in 2008.

There's a few others I can think of but I'm tired and will update tomorrow.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The first thing that comes to mind is how Mariotto Segni humiliatingly lost the FPTP seat he ran in in 1994 (although he was elected from the proportional part) even as a few members of his coalition did win theirs. On the one hand, this probably should not count because the whole post-DC centrist pole was obviously in shambles at that point, but on the other hand, Segni had been one of the most popular politicians in the country around 1992-1993 at the height of Mani Pulite and the way he completely squandered his success (he had been the leader of the movement to switch to a majoritarian system after all) by being indecisive stands out.

[Estrella]

The first thing that comes to mind is how Mariotto Segni humiliatingly lost the FPTP seat he ran in in 1994 (although he was elected from the proportional part) even as a few members of his coalition did win theirs. On the one hand, this probably should not count because the whole post-DC centrist pole was obviously in shambles at that point, but on the other hand, Segni had been one of the most popular politicians in the country around 1992-1993 at the height of Mani Pulite and the way he completely squandered his success (he had been the leader of the movement to switch to a majoritarian system after all) by being indecisive stands out.

There's a scene in 1992 where some big business advertising gurus invite Segni for a lunch to see if his project is worth investing in and he completely turns them off by changing his choice of dessert three times in as many seconds. I wouldn't be surprised if it's based on a real incident

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With the Victorian election past I’ve realised John Pesutto in 2018 is an almost carbon copy of the Portillo moment.

- Younger, “moderate” MP in a safe suburban seat
- Very prestigious seat with high ranking past MPs
- Only voted Labor once, in 1952
- Sitting MP is the unbackable favourite for next party leader if (when) the party loses the election
- Labor candidate is unknown and party has no expectation of gaining seat
- Labor shockingly gains the seat on a swing roughly twice the national average
- Very high profile loss (the Liberal MP was on the ABC panel, watching his defeat projected live)
- Loss of seat results in weaker, incompetent Leader
- Liberals make zero headway in the next election thanks to poor leadership and disunity
- The ex-MP comes back to parliament (but in his own seat)
- The ex-MP, having returned, is the favourite to win the leadership after the next election defeat (but he actually wins it)
- He has an unusual surname beginning with P, ending in O

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

With the Victorian election past I’ve realised John Pesutto in 2018 is an almost carbon copy of the Portillo moment.

- Younger, “moderate” MP in a safe suburban seat
- Very prestigious seat with high ranking past MPs
- Only voted Labor once, in 1952
- Sitting MP is the unbackable favourite for next party leader if (when) the party loses the election
- Labor candidate is unknown and party has no expectation of gaining seat
- Labor shockingly gains the seat on a swing roughly twice the national average
- Very high profile loss (the Liberal MP was on the ABC panel, watching his defeat projected live)
- Loss of seat results in weaker, incompetent Leader
- Liberals make zero headway in the next election thanks to poor leadership and disunity
- The ex-MP comes back to parliament (but in his own seat)
- The ex-MP, having returned, is the favourite to win the leadership after the next election defeat (but he actually wins it)
- He has an unusual surname beginning with P, ending in O

And the three Labor/Labour victories have played out in reverse order (one fairly modest victory followed by two landslides in Victoria and the other way around in the UK).