Portillo Moments in your country

[Blair]

I always thought the reason the Portillo moment existed was because he was so hated by the left-leaning public; probably only in a similar way with say Michael Gove when he was education Secretary.

Portillo was not just the poster-boy for Thatcherism; but seemed to have the smaryness and arrogance that went along with Thatcherism in the 1980s

[IceAgeComing]

The seat of Cowan, WA. Anne Aly got lucky with the preferences
Greens preferences alone would not have been enough, and the other parties who were running in that seat will almost always benefit the Liberals/Nationals.

 

Again this isn't a Portillo moment because its just some backbencher losing, rather than an actually important or meaningful person.

[Coldstream]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

[Phony Moderate]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

Cable losing in 2015 was a shock; when the exit poll said "Lib Dems - 10 seats" I suspect most people thought that Cable would be one of those 10. Cameron was widely mocked when he visited Twickenham just a couple of days prior to the election.

Balls losing was a shock on the basis of what was generally envisioned at 9:59PM on election night, but not on the basis of the exit poll (in fact I recall that the "Balls has lost" rumours began flowing within minutes of the exit poll).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

Howard losing Bennelong in '07 wasn't unexpected or surprising at all. Electorate polling showed Maxine leading Howard throughout the campaign. In fact it would have been more surprising if he had somehow held on.

[Lachi]

What about Longman then?

[Adam Griffin]

[Mike Thick]

Jim Oberstar losing in 2010 definitely qualifies as one of these.

[Cactus Jack]

Cantor is the big one. The only way a primary defeat could get any bigger would be if Ryan lost to Nehlen next year.

[Coldstream]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

Cable losing in 2015 was a shock; when the exit poll said "Lib Dems - 10 seats" I suspect most people thought that Cable would be one of those 10. Cameron was widely mocked when he visited Twickenham just a couple of days prior to the election.


Balls losing was a shock on the basis of what was generally envisioned at 9:59PM on election night, but not on the basis of the exit poll (in fact I recall that the "Balls has lost" rumours began flowing within minutes of the exit poll).

I personally thought he was going to lose owing to the demographics of the seat (Twickenham is perfect for Cameron) , but then I predicted an even worse night for the Lib Dem’s than they got since I thought Clegg, Mulholland, Williams, Pugh and Lamb would go as well. In the context of the Lib Dem’s performance it wasn’t shocking, nor was Balls in the context of Labours - especially given he’d been tipped to lose in 2010.

[Coldstream]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

Howard losing Bennelong in '07 wasn't unexpected or surprising at all. Electorate polling showed Maxine leading Howard throughout the campaign. In fact it would have been more surprising if he had somehow held on.

I mean...it’s still the incumbent Prime Minister losing a seat he’d held for 33 years, that’s pretty shocking even in the context of a defeat. Especially considering it’s a seat that the Liberals won back in 2010 and then have won 3 times since so it’s not like it’s particularly swingy.

[Phony Moderate]

Not in my own country, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned John Howard losing his seat in the 2007 Australian Election. From Britain Nick Clegg in 2017 and Ed Balls, Vince Cable in 2015 come closest to Portillo although in those cases the results weren’t massive shocks for reasons other than the candidates notoriety.

Cable losing in 2015 was a shock; when the exit poll said "Lib Dems - 10 seats" I suspect most people thought that Cable would be one of those 10. Cameron was widely mocked when he visited Twickenham just a couple of days prior to the election.


Balls losing was a shock on the basis of what was generally envisioned at 9:59PM on election night, but not on the basis of the exit poll (in fact I recall that the "Balls has lost" rumours began flowing within minutes of the exit poll).

I personally thought he was going to lose owing to the demographics of the seat (Twickenham is perfect for Cameron) , but then I predicted an even worse night for the Lib Dem’s than they got since I thought Clegg, Mulholland, Williams, Pugh and Lamb would go as well. In the context of the Lib Dem’s performance it wasn’t shocking, nor was Balls in the context of Labours - especially given he’d been tipped to lose in 2010.

Cable did increase his majority in 2010 though, even as a number of Lib Dem seats in the West Country (probably less Cameron-friendly than that part of London) fell to the Tories.

There are parallels between the defeats of Balls and Clegg. Two figures who became widely unpopular with the general public, both of whom actually held on when they were 'supposed' to lose their seats but then proceeded to lose at the following general election (when they were out of government).

[mileslunn]

How about the loss of Ben Gummer as I believe he was the highest profile cabinet minister to be defeated in 2017.  Yes his constituency was always a marginal one, but most expected the Tories to gain seats and Labour to lose them, not the other way around.  Also had Amber Rudd lost her seat that would have been a Portillo moment, although won't be if she loses next time around considering how close it was and will probably be targeted much more aggressively next time around. 

A few potential Portillo moments based on trends are Boris Johnson losing his seat (unlikely), Iain Duncan Smith losing (very possible), and Kenneth Clarke losing (unlikely under the current boundaries, but quite possible under the new ones as the northern part of his constituency is more suburban than rural thus Labour and Conservatives run even there, his strength is more in the rural parts which are becoming less important).  For Labour, Dennis Skinner losing his seat would be a Portillo moment and I believe the Tories had their best showing ever in his constituency although 2017 was the first election they actively targeted his and not sure if they will next time around.

Here in Canada this next year we could have a few Portillo moments.  In the upcoming Ontario election, Wynne losing her seat would be the ultimate one (and could very well happen), but also Charles Sousa (finance minister losing his is another).  If the PCs shoot themselves in the foot, Brown losing his seat is one as his constituency barely went Tory last time around or federally but both were bad elections for the Tories.  In Quebec, if the CAQ wins a majority you will probably get a number of them. 

In the US, not as familiar but if it is a Democrat wave, you could see some.  Loss of Roy Moore in the Alabama special election was one.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Portillo election saw a measly 17 point swing. That's not much more than the national swing for all of Canada in 2015. Canadian voters are much more volatile than Britons.

[mileslunn]

The Portillo election saw a measly 17 point swing. That's not much more than the national swing for all of Canada in 2015. Canadian voters are much more volatile than Britons.

I think part of that is you have the Tories on the right, Liberals in the centre, and NDP on the left so its easy for those in the Tories or NDP to swing over to the Liberals and vice versa when they get tired.  In BC where you have more like the British system, then swings of that size are quite unusual save the 2001 and 2005 elections.  I noticed when the Liberal Democrats were stronger it was much easier to get a massive swing as they can peel away soft Tories and soft Labour whereas the gap between the Tories and Labour is large enough philosophically thus why you don't get big swings.  I suspect if in Canada it was between the NDP and Tories, you wouldn't have swings like you see now nearly as often.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Other than Ed Balls, the biggest 'Portillo moment' which I can remember since 1997 (and which hasn't been mentioned) is probably the then-leader of Scottish Labour Jim Murphy losing his East Renfrewshire seat to the SNP in 2015. Perhaps not unexpected (although I remember the debate being whether enough of the large Conservative vote would switch to keep the Nats out) but definitely a capstone to Labour's total wipeout at the hands of the SNP in one of the most middle class and anti-independence seats in the west of Scotland.

[Don Vito Corleone]

George Brown, who was then Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, losing his seat in 1970 when Labour were expected to win but instead lost comes to mind.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Brown's career was dead before that though.

[parochial boy]

Probably no-one cares, but Freysinger losing last year was fan-bloody-tastic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Probably no-one cares, but Freysinger losing last year was fan-bloody-tastic.

After looking up his name, I get what you mean.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brown's career was dead before that though.

It was also widely expected that he would lose - his constituency was originally a combination of small industrial towns, market towns and countryside, but the delicate balance had been upset by the movement of many middle class Derby residents into new suburbs located in the seat: by 1970 the electorate was just shy of 87,000 - a decade earlier it had been 70,000. His majority in 1966 was his smallest ever (6.6%) and that was with a big win for Labour nationally.

[Izzyeviel]

Angus Robertson & Alex Salmond in 2017 spring to mind. Terrible news for those us like watching PMQT.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I've a subverted Portillo moment in mind

The Rodriguez Saa brothers have been governing, either in person or as the power behind the throne, the San Luis Province since 1983

They hadn't faced any real challengers in years one of their former allies/puppets, former governor Poggi Decided to run for the Senate allied with the national government of Macri

In the open multi-party primaries (the first round for all practical purposes) Poggi got 57% against Adolfo Rodriguez Saa's 38%
In the actual election El Adolfo got 55% of the votes

[TheSaint250]

Apparently in this election the governor was supposed to win but unexpectedly lost:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_1990

[jaichind]

In ROC it has to be the 2014 election for Taoyuan(桃園) Mayor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_local_elections,_2014#Taoyuan

Like UK 1997 CON the ruling KMT was expected to do badly.  But just how badly was a shock.  The incumbent KMT Taoyuan Mayor John Wu(吳志揚) who is the son of former KMT Chairman and long time KMT Hakka political heavyweight  Wu Po-hsiung (吳伯雄) was ahead in the polls by 15%-20% over DPP's Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦).  Wu was seen as a rising KMT superstar and that after he wins re-election in 2014  and completes his second term in 2018 he could be at least a Vice-President candidate for the KMT in 2020 or someone that would be Premier in a future KMT administration.  Given his Hakka background and popularity in vote rich Taoyuan he was seen as someone that can consolidate the KMT strength in Northern Taiwan Province Hakkas.  Wu's father and grandfather were both County Magistrates of Taoyuan and his family has deep roots there.

In the end Wu was defeated in a shock defeat by 3% (51-48).  It was something on one, including the DPP high command, expected.    To some extent the signs where there.  In 2009 when Wu first won he also faced Cheng and lead in the polls 20%-30% but managed to only win by 6% (52-46).  But that was written off as 2009 was seen as a slightly pro-DPP year.  In 2014 it was clear that it was a very strong pro-DPP year and the assumption is that unlike 2009 DPP supporters would be enthusiastic to express their support to pollsters.  In the end it was another pollster miss just like 2009. 

After his Wu was put on the KMT party PR list for the 2016 Legislative elections on the assumption that he will challenge Cheng in 2018 in a re-match.  He was elected as a MP which he had as a role back in 2004-2009.  In the end he choose not to run in 2018 most likely on the calculation that Cheng is fairly popular and that while 2018 will have a slight KMT lean it is not enough for him to win.  Not running in 2018 most likely means the end of Wu's political career.   At best he runs in 2020 for MP but he will rise no higher then that.