Do you believe CA-45 can flip

[King Lear]

Do you think Mimi Walters can lose reelection, I ask this because this is my district and personally I believe she can lose if Republicans fail to make the top-two in the governor and senate races which seems quite likely at this point, however if they don’t it’s probably a totally different outcome. 

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yeah, it should be competitive.

[Holmes]

Yes, it will flip. I'm confident.

[DrScholl]

It can definitely flip.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race is lean R

[GoldenMainer]

Mimi is a mess so it can flip and Katie Porter is probably the best bet.

[The Other Castro]

It can flip in a very good night for Democrats, let alone a massive wave.

[junior chįmp]

She's a goner

[King Lear]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

[Holmes]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

Rohrabacher's done too. It will be a grim night for Republicans in California.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

Rohrabacher's done too. It will be a grim night for Republicans in California.

Unless Rohrabacher and that one Republican are the two in the run-off

[King Lear]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

Rohrabacher's done too. It will be a grim night for Republicans in California.

Unless Rohrabacher and that one Republican are the two in the run-off

If democrats were smart they would shrink their field and coeless around the strongest candidate in order to prevent a R vs. R general election.

[Figueira]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

Rohrabacher's done too. It will be a grim night for Republicans in California.

Unless Rohrabacher and that one Republican are the two in the run-off

If democrats were smart they would shrink their field and coeless around the strongest candidate in order to prevent a R vs. R general election.

Aaaaaaaaand this is why Top 2 is bad. The voters get no chance to decide.

[King Lear]

I totally agree, I never got why my state did it.

[Lachi]

It's only an R+3 district. You'd think in a democratic year, it would flip quite easily.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R, but in play.

[Figueira]

Lean R is overkill. Maybe Tilt R, but I'd honestly call it Tilt D.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Yes

[Brittain33]

She looked like even odds before the Virginia and Alabama results, but seeing how affluent and diverse suburbs are voting more Democratic this year than 2016, she's toast.

[Badger]

I believe the most vulnerable Clinton-Republican seat in California is Darrel Issa’s because he barely won reelection last year, while I believe the least vulnerable is Dana rohbacher’s not because I don’t think a democrat can beat him but because there’s another republican running and with a overcrowded Democratic field their’s a high chance he’ll face another republican unfortunately.

Rohrabacher's done too. It will be a grim night for Republicans in California.

Unless Rohrabacher and that one Republican are the two in the run-off

If democrats were smart they would shrink their field and coeless around the strongest candidate in order to prevent a R vs. R general election.

Aaaaaaaaand this is why Top 2 is bad. The voters get no chance to decide.

Best. And as to the o p, it definitely could

[King Lear]

On a side note, as someone who knows the area very well, Rohbachers district is quite evenly split, you got Laguna beach which is filled with wealthy white liberals, Newport Beach which is filled with wealthy white conservative bigots, Costa Mesa which north of the 55 freeway is poor and Hispanic, and South of the 55 freeway is just like Newport Beach, then you got Huntington Beach witch skews white, Middile class, and conservative, and finaly seal beach which is a small conservative town filled with retirees and military people. For democrats to flip his district they need to number one, make sure they make the runoff by uniting behind one candidate, preferably a guy named Hans keirstead who used to run some biotechnology company and probably can self-fund, and number two, hope to get high turnout from Laguna beach and the poor Hispanic areas of Costa Mesa, while also hoping Newport Beach, Huntington beach, and seal beach are unenthusiastic and fail to show up.

[King Lear]

I believe my district (CA-45) is much easier to flip then CA-48 for the simple fact that their is no Republican that is challenging Mimi Walters that could nock democrats out of the runoff and the fact that almost a third of the districts population lies in Irvine (my hometown), Which is home to a massive university, has a very large Asian and middile eastern population (two groups that are now overwhelmingly democratic due to trumps anti-immigrant bigotry), and voted two-to-one for Hillary Clinton last year. I do understand the rest of the district skews much whiter and conservative, however if Republicans miss the senate and governor runoffs these areas may not show up causing the democrats to have a easy pickup.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes if the democrat is an actual progressive who will turn people out(not Dave Min). I like Katie Porter a lot. She was endorsed by Warren I think. I don't know if that will help or hurt her. Hamachady or however you spell his name is also good.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Newport Beach which is filled with wealthy white conservative bigots,

Really? It always struggled me as a Romney-Trump not NoVa type of place.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the deciding factor in CA-45 is who all the new residents of Irvine vote for. There has been at least 50K in population growth there since 2010 alone, and it wouldn't surprise me if these people were D leaning.