How would you rate TX-Sen?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Probably Valdez, she appears to be a stronger candidate than White, at least on paper.

[Cactus Jack]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Valdez is probably the stronger of the two, but I suspect that this race will operate in reverse: O'Rourke will most likely help the TX-GOV nominee on account of his high profile. It won't be enough to take out Abbott - I'm certainly not under that delusion - but that's the way I imagine it'll work.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Definitely much better. I'd argue 4-5 points better.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Safe R. Come on. Cruz is not Roy Moore.

But he is a sleazeball, and Texas isn't Alabama. As I've already pointed out, Russ Feingold lost comfortably in a Wisconsin that was almost as Obama-friendly as Texas is Trump-friendly.

Wisconsin was a swing/battle ground state in 2008 and Texas is safe/likely R state in 2016. Besides Wisconsin is much more elastic then Texas is.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Valdez is probably the stronger of the two, but I suspect that this race will operate in reverse: O'Rourke will most likely help the TX-GOV nominee on account of his high profile. It won't be enough to take out Abbott - I'm certainly not under that delusion - but that's the way I imagine it'll work.

Abbott appears to be enroute to a comfortable re-election so I would imagine that should help Ted Cruz.

[Cactus Jack]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Valdez is probably the stronger of the two, but I suspect that this race will operate in reverse: O'Rourke will most likely help the TX-GOV nominee on account of his high profile. It won't be enough to take out Abbott - I'm certainly not under that delusion - but that's the way I imagine it'll work.

Abbott appears to be enroute to a comfortable re-election so I would imagine that should help Ted Cruz.

You'd be surprised. There have been a number of stories circulating about O'Rourke's appeal to the Trump base (mostly on the grounds of his honesty about the issues and sincerity as a person, from what I've read) and Cruz' total lack of it. Win or lose, I imagine Beto sees a significant amount of crossover support from Abbott voters, simply on account of Abbott not having alienated significant swathes of Republicans.

[I’m not Stu]

Safe R. Come on. Cruz is not Roy Moore.

But he is a sleazeball, and Texas isn't Alabama. As I've already pointed out, Russ Feingold lost comfortably in a Wisconsin that was almost as Obama-friendly as Texas is Trump-friendly.

Wisconsin was a swing/battle ground state in 2008 and Texas is safe/likely R state in 2016. Besides Wisconsin is much more elastic then Texas is.

Texas is not safe R. TX is more likely to vote for a Democrat than most red states.

[Xing]

Likely R. Cruz probably holds on by at least 5-6%, but if O'Rourke actually ends up being a top notch candidate, and the trends in Texas are stronger than people expect, I suppose it's possible that Cruz could get Warner'd, or even lose very narrowly.

[Ye We Can]

It's Likely R.  I'd be very happy to see an upset here, though.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Safe R. Come on. Cruz is not Roy Moore.

But he is a sleazeball, and Texas isn't Alabama. As I've already pointed out, Russ Feingold lost comfortably in a Wisconsin that was almost as Obama-friendly as Texas is Trump-friendly.

Wisconsin was a swing/battle ground state in 2008 and Texas is safe/likely R state in 2016. Besides Wisconsin is much more elastic then Texas is.

Texas is not safe R. TX is more likely to vote for a Democrat than most red states.

Citation please. I also said back in 2016 it was on the boarder of safe and Likely R. Texas has not voted Democrat in a statewide race since 1994 http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/sep/26/joaquin-castro/joaquin-castro-says-texas-has-gone-longest-all-sta/
That’s longer then the majority of states including inelastic states such as Mississippi and Alabama.   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?

Valdez is probably the stronger of the two, but I suspect that this race will operate in reverse: O'Rourke will most likely help the TX-GOV nominee on account of his high profile. It won't be enough to take out Abbott - I'm certainly not under that delusion - but that's the way I imagine it'll work.

Abbott appears to be enroute to a comfortable re-election so I would imagine that should help Ted Cruz.

You'd be surprised. There have been a number of stories circulating about O'Rourke's appeal to the Trump base (mostly on the grounds of his honesty about the issues and sincerity as a person, from what I've read) and Cruz' total lack of it. Win or lose, I imagine Beto sees a significant amount of crossover support from Abbott voters, simply on account of Abbott not having alienated significant swathes of Republicans.

I would imagine much of Trumps base are staunch Republicans and I can’t imagine O Rourke winning over many actual registered republicans even Moore won over 90% of Republicans in Alabama. Also while many of these voters may prefer O Rourke on a personal level it’s another thing to actually get these voters to cross over and vote Democrat. How many times have we seen Democrats start out polling well in strongly Republican states before they fade in the end.

[President Johnson]

Between lean and likely Republican. Voted lean Republican since Cruz is unpopular and 2018 could became a bad year for the GOP. Maybe wishful thinking though, I have to see some Cruz vs. O'Rourke polls.

[junior chįmp]

Cruz could very easily lose. Texas is a sleeping giant if the right voters organized:

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Now, contrary to the Democrats of Atlas defeatism....The Hispanics of Texas are not majority Republican:

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Beto very much has a chance

[Bidenworth2020]

if 61% of Hilldogs voters turn  out for beto and half of trumps for cruz, beto narrowly wins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean R

[TarHeelDem]

Somewhere between a toss-up and leaning toward the Republicans. I'm not sure yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race is possible.

[super6646]

Likely republican. Not quite ready to put into safe, but Cruz shouldn't have trouble assuming nothing comes out about him.

[Dr. Arch]

Toss up

[Baki]

Likely R until proven otherwise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely R until proven otherwise.

[mcmikk]

Likely R until proven otherwise.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lean R

[OneJ]

Lean R.

To keep it brief, I think Republicans are somewhat overconfident in this race. Cruz, to me, is one of those incumbents that I could see producing some underwhelming results. Maybe even tossup level. Trump is also not hugely popular in Texas anyway, but probably not enough to consider it being a tossup yet.

[RINO Tom]

Likely R until proven otherwise.