How would you rate TX-Sen?

[MT Treasurer]

SAFE R. Maybe Likely but if it’s likely then it’s closer to safe than lean. Drawing conclusions from NOVA or the Alabama Senate race where the republican was a literal pedophile is a flimsy argument. Dems will focus on Arizona, Nevada, and defense.

You forgot the presidential race, where Republicans underperformed badly in the suburbs as well. Cruz is hardly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I wouldn't be surprised if the DSCC has dirt on him.

Trump only won TX by 9 points, and Republicans jost lost a Senate race in a state he won by 28.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

SAFE R. Maybe Likely but if it’s likely then it’s closer to safe than lean. Drawing conclusions from NOVA or the Alabama Senate race where the republican was a literal pedophile is a flimsy argument. Dems will focus on Arizona, Nevada, and defense.

You forgot the presidential race, where Republicans underperformed badly in the suburbs as well. Cruz is hardly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I wouldn't be surprised if the DSCC has dirt on him.

Trump only won TX by 9 points, and Republicans just lost a Senate race in a state he won by 28

The idea that since Alabama is much redder than Texas and Jones managed to win there, O'Rourke might beat Cruz, is pretty dumb. Again, Moore was an accused pedophile. Cruz is not.

[uti2]

SAFE R. Maybe Likely but if it’s likely then it’s closer to safe than lean. Drawing conclusions from NOVA or the Alabama Senate race where the republican was a literal pedophile is a flimsy argument. Dems will focus on Arizona, Nevada, and defense.

You forgot the presidential race, where Republicans underperformed badly in the suburbs as well. Cruz is hardly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I wouldn't be surprised if the DSCC has dirt on him.

Trump only won TX by 9 points, and Republicans jost lost a Senate race in a state he won by 28.

Which would imply the GOP establishment didn't have any oppo to drop on Cruz during the primary? Didn't you say before the GOP hasn't had an oppo research program since 2004? Do you stand by that?

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that since Alabama is much redder than Texas and Jones managed to win there, O'Rourke might beat Cruz, is pretty dumb.

The trends we've seen in GA/TX/VA/CO/etc. in 2016 and this year in VA/AL/PA are already very much favoring Democrats. Trump is even more unpopular in TX than he is in AL (among the electorate that turned out yesterday, it's only a 48/48 approve/disapprove split), and TX Republicans are relying on strong support from the same areas that are currently rebelling against Trump and the GOP.

[Sestak]

Likely R. Formerly safe R.

[Doimper]

I think the potential competitiveness of Texas next year is really underrated. Republican strength in Texas is rooted in the suburbs - if those start to slip, we're going to see a few upsets. I'd rate the Senate race lean R for now, although I have it as a tossup in my prediction map.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The idea that since Alabama is much redder than Texas and Jones managed to win there, O'Rourke might beat Cruz, is pretty dumb.

The trends we've seen in GA/TX/VA/CO/etc. in 2016 and this year in VA/AL/PA are already very much favoring Democrats. Trump is even more unpopular in TX than he is in AL (among the electorate that turned out yesterday, it's only a 48/48 approve/disapprove split), and TX Republicans are relying on strong support from the same areas that are currently rebelling against Trump and the GOP.

I'm not saying Texas isn't trending blue, I'm just taking issue with that argument in particular. Cruz could very well lose, but just saying that he'll lose because Jones won in a much redder state than the one Cruz represents tells us nothing.

[MarkD]

Safe R. O'Rourke is too liberal for Texas.

[Cactus Jack]

Safe R. O'Rourke Jones is too liberal for Texas Alabama.

Ahem...

[Hoosier_Nick]

Lean R. Turnout may be weak due to exhaustion of the Trump administration,as we saw in Alabama. I know that Moore is a(n alleged) pedophile, but I'm really not certain that the turnout will be there for Cruz. Also lots of retirements for the House GOP will create more open seats there, have competitive elections down-the-ballot and thus help out Beto.

If 2018 was the same electorate as 2016, sure, it would be likely/safe R. But it's not. Turnout is the name of the game, and the amount of Democrats in Texas are not only growing, but also are extremely motivated in this current cycle. The same cannot be said about the GOP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz seems like exactly the kind of guy that would have a massive scandal revealed about him.

This. Likely R for the time being though.

[NewYorkExpress]

If you asked me today...Tilt D, closer to Tossup than Lean D.

[Orser67]

Likely R.

Points in favor of competitiveness:
-Likely good-to-great Democratic year nationwide
-Decent Democratic candidate
-Democratic momentum/interest in the state due to 2016's relatively competitive presidential result and some potentially competitive 2018 House races
-I'd argue that Cruz is a weaker-than-average incumbent
-Texas's relatively low voter turnout and large non-white population gives the party room for improvement

Points against competitiveness
-TX hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1988 and has a PVI of R+8
-Governor Abbott seems fairly popular and could potentially help Cruz by turning out Republican voters
-Other competitive races could potentially siphon money away from O'Rourke in an expensive state
-TX Republicans have a history of performing relatively well with Hispanic voters

[Blair]

Likely R.

Cruz raised the most money out of any Republican in 2016, and is still has a very good operation. I can see the race being in single digits, but barring any sort of major scandal I can't see him being defeated.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Likely R.

I don't see where Cruz has done things to alienate the average Texas voter that constitutes the majority that would vote for him, and I don't see where that majority has shrunk to a minority.

Politicians hate Cruz more than the average person does.  He's a guy that really is more popular with people than with his peers, and that's why he's going to be tough to take out.  

[Badger]

Right on the cusp between likely and lean R

[Gass3268]

Right on the cusp between likely and lean R

I agree with this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tilt R. What happened in the Richmond, Atlanta, Birmingham, etc. suburbs is likely to repeat itself in Texas. Cruz is definitely more likely to lose than someone like Heitkamp at this point.

so? she is lean /safe D. Maybe closer to McCaskill

[King Lear]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Are you being a troll or being saracistic due to the heavy turnout of minority vote in Bama and Virginia?

[King Lear]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Are you being a troll or being saracistic due to the heavy turnout of minority vote in Bama and Virginia?

I'm not trolling I'm just stating my honest opinion that Cruz is safe unless some massive scandal is revealed about him.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Likely R. Texas is enough a Republican bastion to make a Democratic victory highly improbable, but in the right environment (and it's hard to imagine the Democrats will ever face a set of circumstances more in their favor than 2018 is likely to be), I could see someone like Cruz narrowly loosing to someone like O'Rourke.

[forgotten manatee]

I've been following O'Rourke on Facebook for the past couple of months. Maybe that means I've drunk the Kool-Aid, but I really think he has a serious shot. He's naturally very charismatic and likable, he's got the same kind of oratorical flourish that Barack Obama has, and his fundraising totals are impressive, especially considering that he's using the Bernie Sanders model. I think this is going to be THE upset 2018. And from there, he's going to inevitably become name dropped as a presidential contender, especially since he fits thematically with the re-emergence of the Democratic party as an electoral force in the Southwest.

Going full on hack and picking "Lean D".

[BundouYMB]

Borderline between lean and likely R for now, but I'll be perfectly honest and say I've seen O'Rourke speak before and there's something about him that seriously creeps me out. I kind of expect he's going to get caught up in this flurry of sexual harassers getting exposed, at which point it will become safe R. That's just a baseless gut feeling though.