Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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  Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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Vern
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« Reply #475 on: December 25, 2017, 11:19:07 PM »

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

But considering partisan polarization it is still quite a feat that Jones managed to break through.

It only took his opponent being a child rapist
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DrScholl
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« Reply #476 on: December 25, 2017, 11:23:24 PM »

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

But considering partisan polarization it is still quite a feat that Jones managed to break through.

It only took his opponent being a child rapist

You underestimate just how far partisanship runs. Had a nobody that raised no money been running against Moore, Moore would have won even with the allegations.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #477 on: December 26, 2017, 12:15:51 AM »

2 more days until Certification day. Hoping that Merrill doesn't pull any tricks to try to elevate Moore's position.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #478 on: December 26, 2017, 12:23:42 AM »

2 more days until Certification day. Hoping that Merrill doesn't pull any tricks to try to elevate Moore's position.
He’s essentially  already said that’s it’s highly unlikely that jones would not win; so I have no reson to think Moore would win.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #479 on: December 26, 2017, 12:26:40 AM »

2 more days until Certification day. Hoping that Merrill doesn't pull any tricks to try to elevate Moore's position.

His office has been sassing Roy Moore for the past week, so I kinda doubt he has any interest in pulling those shenanigans.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #480 on: December 26, 2017, 03:44:13 AM »

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.
What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir? Roll Eyes

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #481 on: December 26, 2017, 06:01:03 AM »

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.
What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir? Roll Eyes

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Strange didn't sexually assault teens.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #482 on: December 26, 2017, 06:25:35 AM »

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.
What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir? Roll Eyes

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Strange didn't sexually assault teens.

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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #483 on: December 26, 2017, 05:03:20 PM »

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

But considering partisan polarization it is still quite a feat that Jones managed to break through.

It only took his opponent being a child rapist

Can't we all just come together as Americans and be glad a child molester wasn't elected to the Senate?  Is that really so much to ask even after the election is over?
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Sestak
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« Reply #484 on: December 26, 2017, 07:06:55 PM »

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

But...if this race was in 2014 instead, Moore would probably win by at least 10 points (with allegations and all).
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Virginiá
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« Reply #485 on: December 26, 2017, 07:40:16 PM »

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

That's a very narrow way to look at this, and it ignores the giant shift against Republicans that has gone in this year. Are you suggesting none of that has affected Alabama? Why were the demographics swinging against Moore in line with the demographics swinging against Republicans in general elsewhere?

Or, how about Moore only winning his last statewide race in 2012 by around 4 points?

It was also stated that internal polling had a race with Moore close before the allegations, and still close but in Jones' favor after (link)

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What I posted on AAD still seems adequate, imo:

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« Reply #486 on: December 26, 2017, 10:14:44 PM »

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.
What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir? Roll Eyes

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Yes. He's correct. Strange would have beat Jones by a substantial amount.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #487 on: December 26, 2017, 10:16:04 PM »

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.
What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir? Roll Eyes

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Yes. He's correct. Strange would have beat Jones by a substantial amount.

I think so too.  Strange was tainted, but not as badly as Moore.  It would have been easier for some R voters to hold their nose and vote for Strange.
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Vern
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« Reply #488 on: December 26, 2017, 10:52:39 PM »

My point I am making is a lot of democrats are using this race to say that 2018 is going to be a blood bath for the Republicans. When this race was about much more than the republicans. It was about Moore as a person. Don't get me wrong, I think Republicans will not do great in 2018, but I don't think Democrats are going to blow them out of the water.
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« Reply #489 on: December 26, 2017, 11:04:14 PM »

My point I am making is a lot of democrats are using this race to say that 2018 is going to be a blood bath for the Republicans. When this race was about much more than the republicans. It was about Moore as a person. Don't get me wrong, I think Republicans will not do great in 2018, but I don't think Democrats are going to blow them out of the water.

But it's not just Alabama -- this election is the cherry on top of several elections (at the state and federal level) where Ds have far outperformed their 2016 totals (really, any totals from the last seven years possibly excluding 2012). If we saw this result in 2013 I would agree with you that there isn't a lot to extrapolate from here. But in 2017 we do have other things to extrapolate from and they really don't look good for Republicans.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #490 on: December 26, 2017, 11:23:20 PM »

My point I am making is a lot of democrats are using this race to say that 2018 is going to be a blood bath for the Republicans. When this race was about much more than the republicans. It was about Moore as a person. Don't get me wrong, I think Republicans will not do great in 2018, but I don't think Democrats are going to blow them out of the water.

I don't really care to use this race to discuss national trends, but I'm interested to see what impact this win could have for Southern Democrats in 2018 and beyond. Roy Moore or no, the Doug Jones campaign put a lot of blood, sweat, tears... and money into winning this race. The amount of money they raised and the amount of volunteers they had were light years beyond what Democrats have had there in a long time. His campaign was pretty much on par with the biggest AL GOP campaign operations. Having a Democrat on the air waves, making calls, and knocking on doors asking people for their vote isn't something that happens very often in the state or in the whole region. Sometimes, when you give people your pitch and ask them for their vote, they're more open to it than people usually think. I'm sure there's a lot of Jones voters who will switch back to the GOP next time, but he may have also won over some voters that could turn out for Democrats in future elections.

It could be inspiring for Democrats in other Southern states too. SC, MS, TN... who knows? I know what you are going to say - 'But Roy Moore!' I get it, but the other side is - Doug Jones won. People who aren't into politics don't care about things like the margin. It's just the result that matters. Frankly, a Democrat winning a Senate race in Alabama... it's just not something that happens everyday. When you live in a place or an area where you party never wins, people get disillusioned and don't participate in politics. They just give up.

Doug Jones could give some people more inspiration and hope. That candidate who never would have jumped into a race might decide to give it a go. That volunteer or campaign organizer that never would have gone out to knock on doors might decide to go out and knock on a few after all. That voter who would have stayed home because they don't believe there's any point might decide to go out and vote and give it a shot. I'm not saying that Democrats are going to start winning more elections statewide, but that kind of effort can help make things closer and it can help in local races and boost parties in the state legislatures... and heck, it's just nice to get more people participating. So yeah, it's just one election but it could still be meaningful. At the end of the day, I'm just glad Doug Jones won because he deserved it.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #491 on: December 27, 2017, 01:19:00 AM »

Great work NOVA Green! Do you yourself have an overall conclusion from all this analysis as to what was the main driver of Jones' win?

Thanks Gustaf!

At this point I have only covered precinct level results from Alabama consisting of 34% of the 2017 US-Senate vote, from five counties in the State, so there is still a bit of work to do on this project, so I certainly don't want to suggest this is anywhere close to a definitive study of these election results.



Still, as I posted earlier:

1.) African-American turnout within the City of Birmingham was key to creating the insane margins that we saw in Jefferson County Alabama (Much larger than I was expecting).

2.) Huge net swings of Trump '16 > Jones '17 voters in wealthier White precincts in the larger Metro areas, including the cities of Mobile, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, and Oxford.

3.) In Working-Class factory towns of Alabama, such as Bessemer, Bay Minette, Prichard, and Anniston, we saw a significant decrease in AA turnout compared to Middle-Class AA precincts in Birmingham and Mobile, but an even larger collapse in WWC turnout in the "separate but equal" communities just across the railroad tracks.

4.) The largest collapse in Republican support happened in older, overwhelmingly White, and rural precincts, and apparently despite Trump's alleged popularity among this community, it didn't matter a hill of beans when it came to his last ditch effort to drag Roy Moore over the finish line.

5.) Trump's popularity is fading fast in Alabama, just like many other parts of the country. In fact some recent polls have shown his biggest collapse over the past three months occurring among White Evangelical voters.

There are quite a few reasons why Trump chose to do his finale support for Moore from Pensacola, Florida, instead of doing a Stadium style rally in Alabama.

There is a reason that Steve Bannon showed up at a last minute joint campaign event with Roy Moore in South Alabama, but the numbers from Baldwin County, and the traditionally Republican heartlands of SE 'Bama clearly indicate that that "dirty dawg don't hunt no more"....

Just fine withholding my support and let the Yellow Dawg win, rather than vote for the Republican that stole $ 1 Million out of a Christian charity to line his own pockets with.


Anyways, hoping to pull some more precinct level numbers together soon, especially once we get the Statewide precinct numbers certified, but fwiw these are some of my initial humble thoughts on the subject.



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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #492 on: December 27, 2017, 01:53:39 AM »

Is it just me, or I find Roy Moore's little poem recitation creepy. I mean really dude, writing about a little girl? I feel like that was his final middle finger to the victims and all those who were against him. A dog whistle if one will.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #493 on: December 27, 2017, 04:12:18 AM »

One additional item, that I neglected to mention, regarding a major reason for Roy Moore's stunning loss in Alabama, was his Military history during the Vietnam War.

Alabama is an extremely Patriotic State, with perhaps one of the highest rates of Military Service during the War, some of it a result of social class and economic status, and also as a result of family traditions of military service going back all the days to Andrew Jackson.

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

This was not normal, even in the 'Nam era to have an officer so unpopular where enlisted Men and draftees might go that far....

There are a ton of people in Alabama that served under Roy Moore in 'Nam, but interestingly enough we haven't seen the footage of them jumping up and supporting him for his US-Senate run...

Why is that, when in theory this is the type of dude that should be making hay about his War experience in 'Nam in a State where so many served with honor and distinction only a few short Decades back?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #494 on: December 27, 2017, 05:32:38 AM »

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

...wow.
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« Reply #495 on: December 27, 2017, 11:54:12 AM »

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

...wow.
It's not that surprising tbh
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #496 on: December 27, 2017, 10:06:07 PM »

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

...wow.
It's not that surprising tbh

Sure, it is not surprising that he was type of officer that was extremely unpopular during 'Nam, considering all we have learned since regarding his moral character and personality.

What is extremely surprising is that in a part of the Country where Bill Clinton was extremely unpopular because "he was busy smoking weed overseas in the UK in order to dodge the draft", Al Gore gets hit hard for similar reasons involving the politics of the 1960s, George W. Bush is busy dodging the draft, getting high on weed and cocaine stationed at some Air National Guard Base, where he barely showed up for work (Got a pass on that), John Kerry get's "swiftboated" in '04, even though he was the type of officer that took lead along with the enlisted Men under his command in 'Nam, McCain did quite well in Alabama and many other parts of the region among the 'Vets from that War.

Obama was actually the first US Presidential nominee since before '92 where you didn't have a Democrat running for office with the ghosts of Vietnam hanging over the Party candidate...

Bush Sr in '92 was obviously way too old to have served in 'Nam, but as part of the Greatest Generation he served with honor and distinction in WW II.

Bob Dole in '96 was also a WW II war hero....

George W. Bush.... we've already talked about his history....

McCain.... Vietnam war hero.

Mitt Romney did not serve in Vietnam, something that Steve Bannon just recently attacked him on...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/steve-bannon-knocks-mitt-romney-for-lack-of-military-service-while-defending-roy-moore/article/2642676

So, Roy Moore did serve in Vietnam, and he was known for writing Article 15s, apparently visited some brothels during his Tour of Duty, although according to one former buddy didn't sleep with the underage prostitutes guarded by South Vietnamese Army troops as a private business gig to line the pockets of the corrupt military officers of South Vietnam towards the end of the War.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-forgotten-history-of-fragging-in-vietnam_us_5a1b77b6e4b0cee6c050939d

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/11/a_jersey_lawyer_stands_up_for_his_vienam_war_buddy.html

http://taskandpurpose.com/army-buddy-roy-moore-went-vietnamese-child-brothel-no-big-deal/

http://www.businessinsider.com/roy-moore-transgender-military-lgbtq-vietnam-2017-12

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/10/roy-and-his-rock/304264/

Meanwhile, you got this dude Doug Jones that was too young to have been of draft age during the War, graduates from U of A in '76, gets his law Degree from an Evangelical Christian University in Alabama in '79, who came from humble Working Class roots (Daddy worked for the Union represented US Steel Mill just outside of Birmingham that had both a large proportion of working-class African-American and "White-American" workers alike).

I am still surprised the Moore wasn't able to double-down on his military experience (Steve Bannon obviously tried to bring this up vicariously when it came to Mitt Romney), to do a compare/contrast when it comes to Military experience and the US-Senate race.

Doug Jones biography was obviously pretty strong and credible when it came to White working-class Alabama roots, but he obviously lacked military experience on his resume.

I do wonder to what extent war wariness has reduced the impact of a Military background, even in places like Alabama, especially when you have a Republican President who essentially ran against his Republican opponents during the primaries touting his "Opposition to the War in Iraq", which was brutally effective against Jeb Bush (And others) and even was used against HRC during the GE....

Ok--- done with talking... here are a links to a few songs and artists whose works I have purchased over the years, and I would strongly suggest if you like the songs spending $ 1 to support the estates of these musical artists by purchasing the song on your Smartphone or Mobile device, that brought us these musical works. If you really like the artist, do what I have done over the decades and buy the whole damn album...

1.) Pete Seegar- "Big Muddy"

Although this song was set during WW II in training camps, it was a metaphor about the War in Vietnam written in '67 when the s**t was getting hot during LBJ's escalation of the War.

Picture Captain Roy Moore as the Captain fictionally portrayed in this song...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fUF6RctQvg

*** Warning Vietnam War visuals might be disturbing for 'Vets that have served in war zones ***

2.) Loretta Lynn--- "Dear Uncle Sam"

Although this is one song that typically doesn't float to the top of the list when it comes to Vietnam era songs, the powerful Female vocals from an Appalachian Country Music legend, tells a powerful story about the how the War in 'Nam was hitting home even in extremely patriotic parts of the nation that got hit hardest by the Draft...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwOhZufXYso

3.) John Prine--- "Sam Stone"

One of the best American songs when it came to the impact of Drug Addiction, for those that got addicted to Heroin while in the service of their Country in 'Nam.

This original song was so powerful that even legendary Johnny Cash did a cover of this song....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLVWEYUqGew

4.) Tom Paxton--- "Talking Vietnam"

Ok--- this is a bit more light hearted but definitely a counter-cultural perspective from many of the Vets serving over there....

"The Captain, this blond fellow from Yale, said what's the matter with you baby"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxSR4ZaDpBg

5.) Billy Joel--- "Goodnight Saigon"

So Roy Moore was a Marine in Vietnam, but apparently didn't believe in the values of the Corps, unlike just about every other USMC member I have ever met, including my Father-in-Law, Son-in-Law, friends that served in Vietnam as US Marine Corp members, my friend Miranda's boyfriend who did three tours in Iraq 2.0 from the initial invasion, to the battle of Falluja...

"We all go down together"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJlZeTSaT98


So where I'm going with all of this, is the extremely powerful cultural impact of the Vietnam War among older voters in Alabama.

They didn't turn out to support Roy Moore to showcase his service and sacrifice during the War in Vietnam, other than one random lawyer from New Jersey.

USMC blood is thick, it got us onto an airplane flight when all the gates were closed down in San Diego, when my wife was wearing a USMC hoodie after we flew down to visit our son-in-law that was in a coma after having an allergic reaction to all the vaccines they jacked him up with two weeks before he was scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan.

It's pretty telling that Roy Moore's "Vietnam Story" was pretty bunk to start with and Steve Bannon railing against Mitt Romney for not serving during 'Nam (WTF Huh?).

Roy Moore lost a good chunk of the Military Vet vote in Alabama, likely because his military "history" during the war was already out there an exposed as another puke crap Captain from some University who doesn't understand s**t about the War, but still wants to send us all out to die on Patrols, and running Article 15s like a total a**hole.

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SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #497 on: December 28, 2017, 07:43:57 AM »

Moore is moving to block the certification based on "systematic voter fraud" that doesn't exist https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.html

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #498 on: December 28, 2017, 08:21:07 AM »

FTR, the voter fraud "expert" Moore is citing is the same one who contends that the Democratic primary was stolen from Sanders and his testimony was used as proof by Tim Robbins and other Bernie bros.
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« Reply #499 on: December 28, 2017, 08:39:36 AM »

Moore is moving to block the certification based on "systematic voter fraud" that doesn't exist https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.html


Bussed in blacks from Mississippi using Alabama state-issued IDs they don't have? Roll Eyes

With all that has been done to keep black people from voting in this state, this accusation is preposterous.

When Jones won, my greatest fear was that this would mobilize Alabama to find even more ways to suppress the votes of black Alabamians. I hope they remain vigilant.
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