Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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  Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #425 on: December 21, 2017, 12:13:40 PM »

Sounds like molestin Moore has the hots for the Doug's son
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« Reply #426 on: December 21, 2017, 12:24:07 PM »

Wow, that’s really sh[inks]y, but I expected no less from Roy Boor.
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Holmes
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« Reply #427 on: December 21, 2017, 12:36:57 PM »


Yeah and he's hot.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #428 on: December 21, 2017, 01:29:23 PM »

So what I'm getting out of that is...

Muslims, gays, marxists, hispanics, and blacks: 1

Roy Moore: 0
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #429 on: December 21, 2017, 01:44:20 PM »


I knew you would say that. Cheesy

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #430 on: December 21, 2017, 01:58:01 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 02:00:05 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Here's a map that shows the extent of the turnout discrepancy and where. Basically, this just shows the percentage-point difference between Democratic and Republican turnout relative to 2016. So statewide, Democrats pulled 92% of their 2016 numbers in this race; GOP 49%. That's a 43-point difference in turnout (92-49) between the two parties relative to 2016.

Both maps show the same thing - the one on the right eliminates numbers and uses starker colors.



Thanks Fmr Pres Grif!

I always enjoy your insightful posts and maps, especially regarding politics in Southern States, even though I frequently don't comment.

This map definitely shows the "Tale of Two Turnouts" at a County level, which so far seems to jive pretty closely with precinct data that I've looked at in three Counties of Alabama thus far (Jefferson, Baldwin, and Calhoun County.

One item which I'm also looking at, which doesn't reflect in County level numbers/maps are were their particular places within Counties where turnout collapsed or surged for candidates relative to previous elections, which of the course part of the reason that I used '16 US PRES as the baseline, both because precinct level result is readily accessible for all Counties in AL for the '16 GE, which can be easily matched against '17 data, and also since it is a Federal Election it's a way of testing both the transferability of the Trump brand to other candidates, as well as potentially areas where support for Trump is weakening.

One other thing that I'm looking at are the "Cross-Over" votes by precinct, since not only are these worth the equivalent of two votes (Double book accounting style), but also this shows where the Republican Coalition is Alabama is losing support, which one can't really ascertain simply by looking at County level results.

That's a very good point: the map more accurately displays shifts in vote share rather than turnout alone. I'd say that the bulk of the shift relative to 2016 is likely based on turnout rather than persuasion, however, but we'll likely see more data in the coming weeks that'll give us a definitive answer. Certainly the "2:1" dynamic at work wrt turnout/persuasion means that even a relatively small number of defections would have an outsized impact.

If I had to guess, I'd say persuasion (i.e. cross-over) was a bigger than average effect in North AL, while turnout played a bigger role in urban areas.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #431 on: December 21, 2017, 02:06:36 PM »

Jones will end up winning by about 22,000 votes.  According to SOS there were 366 Overseas ballots and a little under 3000 accepted Provisional ballots to be added to the final total.  Jones has won the provisional in counties he lost (Decatur, Limestone, Calhoun, Baldwin)  and overwhelmingly won them in the "big" city counties--Madison 333 to 68 and Mobile 463 to 103.

So far, the best write ins I've seen have been  for Colon Powel and Your Mom.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #432 on: December 21, 2017, 02:51:50 PM »


I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #433 on: December 21, 2017, 03:40:48 PM »

So now Moore is attacking Doug's family? Thank God almighty that this man did not f**king win.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #434 on: December 21, 2017, 09:45:31 PM »

With provisionals counted from about 10 counties, the current totals are:

Jones 672,932
Moore 650,844
Write-ins 22,820

Jones currently has 49.953%.  When all provisionals are counted, it's likely that he'll come very close to an outright majority (probably not quite, though).
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #435 on: December 22, 2017, 12:58:52 AM »

Sounds like molestin Moore has the hots for the Doug's son

Hes 20 years too old for Rapin' Roy.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #436 on: December 22, 2017, 01:06:13 AM »

Ok--- this might be the last of these for awhile, unless there is interest out there, since I have several projects that I have put on hold working on Alabama, and also we don't have precinct level results available for many parts of the State yet for the '17 US-SEN Election.

Mobile, County:



A significant Jones win in Mobile County was a necessary, but not sufficient component for any potential statewide win, since as the second largest County by population in the State (413k) it was virtually unfathomable to envision a Jones victory without significant wins both here and in Madison County, combined with expected lopsided margins in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties, to offset heavily Republican votes in smaller Counties and rural areas elsewhere in the State.

Still, Jones overall vote margins and percentages by which he won Mobile County were likely a bit higher than one might have imagined, considering the population is 59-35 White-Black, and the County as a whole went 42-56 Trump in 2016.



So, before I start getting into items such as vote margin changes by place, turnout changes, vote-cross-over etc, let's start by looking at what the vote by place looked like in the 2016 GE vs the 2017 SEN Election.

2016:



2017:

2017:




So, interestingly enough you see Mobile's vote share go up from 46 > 52% of the County total, with the only other place with an increase being Prichard (A heavily Democratic City North of Mobile), and the biggest decrease happening in Rural areas, with most other places in the County losing vote share as well....

Now if we look at how the places in Mobile County voted in '16 and '17, and what the swings were we see the following:



So----

1.) The margin swings between '16 and '17 were actually relatively close in almost all places in Mobile County, with the exception of overwhelmingly African-American City of Prichard, slightly lower swings in Citronelle, in the far North of the County.

2.) Significantly the swings in Mobile were at 25%, which considering it's disproportionate share of the County Vote, as well as being a 44-51 African-American City, obviously played a major role in Doug Jones overall margins within Mobile County.

UNINC areas and Semmes stand out because of their population of Middle and Upper-Middle Class White voters, as does Tillmans Corner, because of its large concentration of White Working Class Voters....

So now the next item is to look at where voter support/turnout dropped for the respective two major party candidates between '16 and '17, and then take a look at cross-over voters after.

City of Mobile:

1.) Precincts HRC won by > 80% in the 2016 GE:

So, these are generally heavily African-American precincts, and here we see Jones losing a Net +3.0k votes compared to HRC in '16 for a 20% drop in numbers, although granted Moore's support collapsed 45%, it's not really seeming the Jones got the same type of vote turnout and mobilization in the African-American community that he did in Birmingham.

Now it is also interesting that this data set also includes two precincts with a high proportion of College Students ( # 27 Bishop State Community College and # 37 directly West of the University of South Alabama)...



2.) Precincts won by HRC with 65-80% Dem Vote:

These are precincts that generally are majority African-American, but with a significant White vote as well. Here we see Dem turnout collapsing 16% and 'Pub turnout collapsing 49%, and 'Pubs actually lose a net 200 Votes here on the voter turnout / cross-over voter War.



3.) HRC 50-65% Precincts

Now we are starting to get into precincts that are majority White, in some cases significantly so, but still with a large African-American Population...



So, here we see the Democratic turnout gap advancing significantly, while the decline in the 'Pub vote share remains pretty high....

Likely some of this is a result of 'Pub cross-over votes, but we don't have a mechanism to directly prove that.

4.) "Trump Precincts"---- This basically lumps all precincts here HRC captured <50% of the Vote in '16, although one of these she narrowly won with a plurality.

These are for the most part overwhelmingly White Precincts....



So here we see 1,500 Democratic Votes for Doug Jones over the 2016 HRC numbers...

These are definitely 100% crossover vote numbers, which is certainly significant.

5.) Although obviously a deeper dive of Mobile Precinct results are warranted, as I posited several weeks before the AL-US-SEN election, that Roy Moore would likely fare poorly in Mobile and in the "Cajun Country" part of Alabama, because of his history as a religious bigot.

I also referenced the role and connections of Interfaith Religious Networks, including Jews, Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Traditional Black Christian Churches, and various Evangelical networks...

http://www.encyclopediaofalabama.org/article/h-1878

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congregation_Sha%27arai_Shomayim_(Mobile,_Alabama)

So here are the precinct results from one of the most Republican Precincts in Mobile, located overwhelmingly on the Campus of Spring Hill College (Private Jesuit Catholic School)...  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Hill_College



So, collapse of Roy Moore certainly seems to have hit hard in any overwhelmingly Catholic Precinct, and one of the most Republican precincts in the City, in an extremely diverse community going back centuries when it comes from everything involving ancestry/country of origin---Race/Ethnicity--- Religious Diversity--- Social Class/Income.

I could run through some of numbers from other places, but I think the UNINC and Rural numbers speak for themselves....

My main question is less at this point will these voters back Doug Jones in 2020, than to what extent of the radioactive nature of the Trump brand, causing normal moderate Alabama 'Pubs from places like the Cities of Mobile, Daphne, Vestavia Hills, and Mountain Brook, to abandon flirting with the Republican Party altogether, and accept their identity as Democrats.













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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #437 on: December 22, 2017, 01:18:33 PM »

It always bugged me that regular swing/trend measures don't take into account the effect of differential turnout. Given that it was such a big part of this race's result, I tried to figure out how to measure it.

I came up with what I call "Composition-Adjusted Swing/Trend". It's not very intuitive to explain but it strikes me as the fairest available measure. Basically, I take Jones' margin of victory/defeat in a given county and inflate or deflate it based on how that county's share of the total vote has changed over time. For example, if Jones won a county by 30 points but that county went from making up 10% of the total vote to 12%, then I inflate it to 36 points. In almost all cases, this works to Jones' advantage: most Jones counties made up a larger share of the vote than they did in earlier elections, and most Moore counties a smaller share (although there are exceptions). Then, I simply calculate the swing and trend from the previous election as I would normally.

Here's what the trend maps for the two most commented benchmarks look like when I use this measure.





What I take away from this is that big cities really made the difference for Jones: these swings in Jefferson, Madison, Shelby and Tuscaloosa were really massive. By contrast, rural Alabama was pretty underwhelming, including the Black Belt. Thus, the narrative that made this election all about Black turnout seems a bit misleading to me (although in such a close election, everything could be said to have made a difference).
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #438 on: December 22, 2017, 01:39:19 PM »

Results will be certified on December 28.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/944264105304739840?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother
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IceSpear
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« Reply #439 on: December 22, 2017, 02:23:54 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #440 on: December 22, 2017, 02:42:34 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?

When Ivanka said there is a special place in hell for people like Roy, I assumed it was just the Trump family way of announcing the location of their newest Trump towers.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #441 on: December 22, 2017, 03:39:07 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?

When Ivanka said there is a special place in hell for people like Roy, I assumed it was just the Trump family way of announcing the location of their newest Trump towers.

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« Reply #442 on: December 22, 2017, 05:21:32 PM »

SORE LOSER
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« Reply #443 on: December 22, 2017, 05:23:52 PM »


I'm almost angry that Jones didn't win by more.  What trash.
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« Reply #444 on: December 22, 2017, 05:35:23 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?
Okay that is really disgusting.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #445 on: December 22, 2017, 05:43:33 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?
Okay that is really disgusting.

Oh, THAT is???
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #446 on: December 22, 2017, 06:28:05 PM »
« Edited: December 25, 2017, 05:15:00 PM by NOVA Green »

Lee County Alabama:



So, as there has been so much talk about Lee County Alabama (Auburn) and the dramatic shifts in voting and all of that, I decided to pull up the '16 and '17 numbers to see if they shed any light on the subject.

Lee County doesn't have a ton of voting precincts, since like many other places in the Country, they have "broadbanded" and consolidated voting locations over the years, which is either a positive or negative development depending upon one's Point of View (POV). Personally, I prefer greater detail to a lesser amount of detail when it comes to precincts, since it makes it easier to do a deeper dive into voting habits by demographics, but hey at least it looks like overall they've avoided all of the messiness that comes with split precinct BS, which is part of reason Madison County isn't at the top of my list for a compare/contrast exercise between the '16 GE and '17 AL-SEN elections.

So, the media narrative was that Doug Jones was swept to victory as a result of a massive surge in Democratic turnout among young voters, African-Americans, White Democrats, combined with swings among College Educated Middle Class Voters in the Metro Areas, extremely depressed evangelical White turnout, the more one looks at the data, the more simplistic that narrative becomes (Although there are still significant core elements of truth there).

1.) So far looking at the precinct level results, it appears that in African-American precincts in Birmingham there was a massive turnout surge, albeit with some significant declines in some heavily working-class and poorer precincts of the City. In Mobile, turnout was down significantly in heavily African-American precincts, but much less so than in heavily White working-class precincts. In Blue collar manufacturing cities in Alabama, we saw a significant dip in African-American turnout in places like Bessemer, Bay Minette, Prichard, and Anniston.

2.) The drop in 'Pub turnout in White working-class precincts of these cities was significantly larger than the drop in AA turnout in the equivalent of the "neighborhood across the railroad tracks" in all four of these Blue Collar towns. The drop in 'Pub turnout in rural areas overall based on the precincts we have covered thus far in Jefferson, Baldwin, Calhoun, and Mobile Counties was even much higher, which is especially significant because of how Republican these rural precincts are and typically quite a bit older and Whiter, and presumably more frequent in terms of rates of Church attendance.

3.) Precinct level data has shown a significant Republican cross-over vote in places like Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, Uninc Jefferson Co (Jefferson Co), Daphne & Spanish Fort (Baldwin Co), Older Middle Class retirement communities on the Gulf Coast (Baldwin Co) Middle and Upper Middle Class 'Pub precincts in Mobile, and likely to some extent in the heavily White Auto Factory town of Oxford (Calhoun County).

4.) What about the Millennial Vote and Student Vote?

Well, if you're looking for it in Lee County (Auburn) you are not going to see it.



The collapse of votes for both major party candidates here was astronomical, not to say that there weren't crossover voters, etc,

Does this mean that Auburn Undergrad students who are actually from Alabama didn't vote in the 2017 AL-SEN election? Absolutely, many of them likely did via an absentee ballot sent to their parent's addresses in the heavily White Upper-Middle-Class communities from when they predominate. 12/11-12/15 was Finals week in Auburn, and although Doug Jones appearance at the Iron Bowl might have helped him within the County overall, one must wonder to what extent it was targeted not specifically at the University Vote, but rather to demonstrate that he's a regular 'Baman like anyone else, and not some Liberal stereotype who doesn't like Football "because kids might get hurt playin' ball".

Still, we can't quantify that vote in the same way we can for other demographics, so let's take a look at who actually voted in Lee County in the '17 US Senate Race.

Lee County AL: Vote Share by Place 2016 and 2017:

2016:



2017:



Ok--- We see Auburn lose about 1% of the County Vote Share, Opelika pick up 4% of the County Vote Share, Smith Station stay constant, rural areas added 1% to their vote share (!!!), and absentee and provisional ballots lose 4% of their vote share (!!!!)

So how did the various communities in Lee County Vote in '16 and '17?



This is pretty interesting right here....

Despite what appears to be a relatively lacking College Student vote in Auburn, Jones actually won every place in the County, with the exception of rural areas, where he came within a few points of Roy Moore.

So it appears that the "townie" vote within the County (Including places other than Auburn) swung hard for Jones, regardless of the lack of an apparent Undergrad College Vote in 2017....

Let's look at the Vote margins and swings by place in Lee County 2016 > 2017:



So overall Democratic vote margin swings were around 36-37% in most of the County.

The exception was Smiths Station, where there was a 44% vote margin swing!!!!

Total Vote Margin Change 2016 > 2017 by Precinct:



Ok---- Wow, just Wow!!!

Dems lost > 50% of their '16 vote in every precinct in the County (Excepting a small rural precinct "Uptown Marvyn", and Moore lost > 80% of the '16 'Pub vote in every precinct in the County, excepting a couple in Opelika and one in rural Beulah, where he only lost 77-79% of Trump's '16 vote in the County.

So, in Lee County, it was definitely a turnout war to see which campaign could do a better job of pulling out what voters were actually around and interested in going to the polls.

So, one last note....

1.) Auburn (17-72   Black/White).... This statistic is likely distorted because the student population is much "Whiter" than the Townie population, but still of the five precincts within the City of Auburn, we have one that is in a Census tract with the highest % of African-Americans within the City of Auburn.

Precinct # 10: Boykin Community Center:

Here is what you see when the College kids go home.... Sure there was a drop in overall total raw vote margins, but look at the margin % Huh



Precinct # 14: Clarion Inn South College:


This includes the dorms of Auburn, as well as a significant chunk of off-campus student housing...




So, these numbers appear pretty obvious.... Auburn University Undergrads are much more Republican than the City at large, and once they left, the University town started to vote a bit differently.

2.) Numbers from Opelika are also a bit interesting, considering that although it is close enough to Auburn to have *some* Undergrad College kids residing within the City limits, is actually more of a working and lower-middle-class community, that is the seat of County government, and also a bedroom community for many locals who can't afford to live in an expensive college town like Auburn, plus some Grad students living in the Modern Day "Sweatshops of Academia", where they get paid crap wages to teach the works of the professors, in exchange for indentured servitude

(42-49 African-American/White), MHI $ 40.1k

3.) Smith Station--- This one totally caught me off-guard.

It's basically a suburban/ Exurban community part of the Metro Columbus- GA / Phenix City AL MSA, and has very little to do with the College areas around Auburn and Opelika.

(15-79 African-American/White), MHI $ 44.3k/Yr

It has the 11th largest High School in Alabama, which means that Friday Night High School ballgames are huge here...

https://kickerfm.iheart.com/featured/east-alabama-hs-football/content/2017-07-27-smiths-station-panthers-2017-football-schedule/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiths_Station,_Alabama

This place swung 44% towards Doug Jones (51- 49 D) vs (27-69 Trump).

So right next to Phenix City, the fictional backdrop of one of the best NativeSouthern Detective writers Ace Atkins setting in "Wicked City", on the edge of a rapidly growing Metro expansion of Columbus, Georgia across into Alabama, not to mention Fort Benning Georgia....

Although, I haven't yet delved into Russell County, we are starting to see a trend where even in relatively small counties in Alabama, if there are major connections with industrial employers (Auto) or private sector employers (Military) we're not really seeing the love for Roy Moore for some bizarre reason.



4.) Rural Areas---- My thought on rural areas in Lee County, is that as the smallest County in Alabama in terms of land area, it doesn't consist as heavily as the same types of rural voters that we have seen in Jefferson, Baldwin, Calhoun, and Mobile Counties.... Meaning that many of these "rural precincts" have a significant component of individuals that have the money and means to live on some acres outside of the cities in the various townships, and still commute to work in places like Auburn, Opelika, Smith Station, Phenix City, and in some cases even Columbus Georgia....

Otherwise not sure how to explain the dramatic swing in rural areas, regardless of the dramatic drop in overall voter turnout within the County.

Edit: Was just thinking of this classic song from one of the Old Blues artists from Alabama...:

Lead Belly: Alabama Bound

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfBbLuGmWhc

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #447 on: December 22, 2017, 09:17:18 PM »

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?
Okay that is really disgusting.

Coolidge--- you gotta keep your cool man.

Look, while your busy picking fights and arguments with posters from all different avatars and persuasions regarding some random election in Alabama, where really you haven't added much in any way to a contribution towards the Political-Science body of knowledge, you are on the verge of seeing your US-House seat in SW-Washington flip Democratic as part of a giant Democratic wave come 2018 ( I would bet 80-20 odds that WA-03 flips in '18).

So, I like you dude, especially in your early postings which is why I sent you a full set of Washington State precinct level results from '08 > '16 when you were originally planning to do an "Oregon style thread" like I had done to as part of an Academic research project, regardless of partisan affiliation.

What I might suggest, is that you dedicate a bit of your time towards the reelection campaign of Jaime Herrera Beutler in WA-03 in November '18.

This is something that I did about your age in Oregon during a pivotal race in OR-05, when the Democratic candidate unseated a long standing Republican representing the district.

It not only gives you the ability to combine precinct level data and analysis from your district, but also a chance to connect with voters by doing day to day things like canvassing, phone banking, etc.

I have nothing whatsoever against being a 'Pub on Atlas, but if you feel so passionately about Alabama (Huh), while the Democrats can and will flip your district in '18, maybe time to put your time and money where the mouth is....

Go canvas in these burly Blue Collar Longshoreman strongholds of Longview and Kelso, or the Fishermen out in Wahkiakum and Pacific Counties....

Don't know what neighborhood from Vancouver, WA you are from, but something tells me you are from the Upper-Middle Class areas in East Vancouver, and not the Working-Class districts of West Vancouver.

WA-03 will flip in '18, and if nothing else, at least you'll get some good political campaign background and experience, and plus you might be the guy in the office (Like I was back in the late '80s as a Teenager) that has every single precinct numbers memorized to pipe suggestions into the top bosses of the campaign team staring at their wall maps before they deploy another batch of canvassers somewhere early in the foggy hours of the morning!
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« Reply #448 on: December 23, 2017, 04:10:29 PM »

Moore is now on Facebook blaming "Muslims and Marxists" for his loss. Because as we all know, Alabama is a hotbed of Muslims and Marxists.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #449 on: December 23, 2017, 04:18:20 PM »

Moore is now on Facebook blaming "Muslims and Marxists" for his loss. Because as we all know, Alabama is a hotbed of Muslims and Marxists.
They were bussed in from Mississippi, obviously.
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