Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Where did you find this glorious info?

Although Landslide Lyndon apparently still has some residual issues from the '16 Dem Primary, I believe he likely pulled it from here, and somehow converted the unofficial election results from a PDF, and summarized the numbers....

http://jeffcoprobatecourt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Unofficial-Precinct-Report-12-12-17.pdf

Still, Landslide Lyndon seems like a pretty chill and cool cat overall, and A+ poster to the Forum, and Mountain Brook (Pop 25k ?)  was considered to be "Ground Zero" (Most educated City, Wealthy White Suburban Birmingham voters, etc) as to where one might expect some of the biggest swings towards Doug Jones....

Seem to recall reading elsewhere that HRC only captured something like 35% of the vote out there in '16 (Haven't run the '12 > '16 numbers yet for this City), but yeah if you are looking at 60% swings between the '16 Pres and '17 Sen, this is obviously a major issue for Republicans in suburban Birmingham.....

(Hint is overwhelmingly White 95%, 30% of households have income > $200k, 61% of househols > $100k/Yr)

This is actually a bit interesting in that I'm not convinced we saw the same margin swings among Upper-Incomes White in Alabama and Mississippi between '12 and '16 towards HRC that we saw in major suburban areas of other Southern States, including Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina, para ejemplo....

Never ran precinct numbers on the Upper Income precincts in 'Bama nor Mississippi, but did chip in a small number of precinct level consolidation summary reports on this thread...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0

I'm actually suspecting that the White Wealthy suburban vote swing that we saw in 'Bama in the US-SEN special election, might be a bit of a delayed reaction to Trumpism (Combined with the alleged Felon they selected as their candidate) among certain populations within the State.

Needless to say the Jones winning Dem coalition had tons of legs to stand on in a State that is actually much more electorally complex and versatile than the main stream media narrative of the race.

I calculated upthread (or probably in Thread 3) that Hillary got 27% in Mountain Brook, compared to downballot Democrats getting 20-21% in 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know it's a special election, but are the results ever going to be uploaded on Atlas? It would make my life a lot easier.

[MT Treasurer]

But that wasn't what happened.  Moore actually overperformed his benchmarks through North Alabama and the Wiregrass with rural, working class White voters even though you think these people are Democrats.

Obviously, yes, you are correct that the unique circumstances in this race do not make it especially exportable to other races looking forward.  However, it is a continuation of the trends we saw put into motion last year.

I was just going to post something similar, but Del Tachi already explained it pretty well. Obviously we're Dixiecrats in disguise for noting this, though.

LOL, I know you have long predicted such a "realignment" (and, I'd go so far as to say you want it for some reason), but how is it "hilarious"?  I'll go ahead and predict, not so boldly, that a non-accused-pedophile Republican beats Jones with b oth of those income brackets.  Agree?

Actually, I wouldn't be so sure about that. No doubt Strange would have done a lot better with those income brackets, but IMO he would have underperformed badly as well (and honestly, I think he was the only other Republican who could have blown it), so in a close election he probably loses both groups. I'd wager they're not exactly fond of Trump either, and there's no reason to believe that there wouldn't have been a continuation of 2016 trends in 2017 if Strange had won the nomination.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I know it's a special election, but are the results ever going to be uploaded on Atlas? It would make my life a lot easier.

I don't see it on Alabama's page yet, but that would probably be the best place to check. Lots of good info about past elections, but the state by state pages seem to be kinda hidden, at least in my experience.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we are finally starting to get initial precinct level results from some of the Counties in Alabama, it's time to take a look at some of the Counties that have posted Provisional election results by precinct, recognizing that there might be some changes once Provisional Ballots, Overseas Voters, and Military Voters are counted....

Jefferson County accounted for only 16% of the votes in the '17 US-SEN election, but was obviously a County that Jones needed to win by huge margins to make the race a toss-up election, which he did.

It's also a City/Metro area in the Deep South that can legitimately claim to be the first "Steel City" in the United States (Although folks from the Pittsburgh area and Steeler fans might disagree).

A region where the combination of Coal Mines, Railroads, and Steel Mills created an Industrial Worker movement, where Poor White and Blacks alike from throughout the State and region migrated to during the Great Depression and the expansion of the Factories in the region to push out the raw materials needed to win the War against Nazism and Fascism in both Europe and Asia.

Interestingly enough, Unions didn't discriminate against African-Americans in the Mines and Factories of Birmingham, compared to the practices of the Labor Movement in places like the Industrial Midwest and California during that era.

I digress, so let's take a look at Jefferson County and the vote share by municipality in the '16 GE and '17 Special election...





So what we see here is that Birmingham expanded their overall vote share by 1.5-2.0% of the total County Vote. We also see that rural parts of Jefferson County saw their vote share decrease by similar numbers.

Now, time to look at the 2016 Pres GE percentages and margins by City within Jefferson County.



Here are the 2017 US SEN percentages and margins by City within Jefferson County...



Now, lets look at the % swings in Jefferson County by City:



So, at this point most of us following the election not living a world of delusion nor denial, essentially illustrates a dramatic swing towards Jones in Middle-Class and Upper-Income White suburbs of Birmingham, compared to HRC's performance in 2016.

Now, let's look at the Voter turnout in the '17 US-SEN election by place:



So what's interesting here is not just that voter turnout was high in overwhelmingly White and Upper-Income regions of Jefferson County, but also that 49% of voters in Birmingham turnout out to vote, when the SoS of 'Bama was estimating 25-27% turnout for the Special Election, and I thought I heard that overall Voter turnout in 'Bama was somewhere close to 40% for this election...

Other than Mountain Brook (56-37 Jones) and Vestavia Hills (51-45 Jones), Birmingham had the 3rd highest voter turnout rate within Jefferson County,

Now, what is fascinating here is the dramatic drop in support for Moore in rural parts of Jefferson County compared to Donald Trump...

The lowest level of turnout in Jefferson County where Trump achieved net +20k raw vote margins in '16, translates to less than a +9k Moore raw Vote margin in '17....

One last note, this is what the chart looks like when one examines the raw vote margin by City in Jefferson County between '16 and '17 that presents more a visual on how these various dynamics suddenly made Jefferson County a 70% Democratic bastion in '17, after only giving HRC 52% of the vote in '16....



Food for thought, and still shifting through the precinct level data from Alabama....

[Kamala]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

[Dr. Arch]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

Yeah, a bit

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

[Kamala]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I do love looking at that map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

I still have the tab with the NYT results page open on my browser. I occasionally scroll down to the projected margin chart.

[Sestak]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

I still have the tab with the NYT results page open on my browser. I occasionally scroll down to the projected margin chart.

Me as well to both the two above quotes.

[Dr. Arch]

I do love looking at that map.

If Monroe county would have just narrowly gone for Jones instead of Moore, that map would look so clean.

[NOVA Green]

So, as I posted well earlier on the thread, there are a few topical tunes that some of y'all might want to listen to and pay a few bucks like I did to buy the CD's back in the days.

Alabama: "My Home's in Alabama" sung live, suspecting it is either in the College Ball Stadiums of Tuscaloosa or Auburn (Suspecting the former not the later, but maybe I have a few personal issues with Auburn)
zy on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Ryzfvf7AE

So--- any haters Dem or Pub on Atlas that want to go absolutely crazy on a state because of their voting patterns, can people just take a chill pill on the stereotypes???

I fought back against this crap from Democratic posters in '08 on Atlas when it came to West Virginia, and against the same BS when it comes to Alabama....

There are obviously a ton of 'Pub avatars guilty of the same stereotypes and sins, that lack the ability to objectively analyze and discuss the data as presented, and will shoot down BS wherever I see it regardless of avatars.

Absolutely no issues whatsoever with a Progressive Dem getting elected as US-SEN from 'Bama, and certainly nothing wrong with being a Democrat that supports 2nd Amendment Rights, just like Bernie Sanders.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

I still have the tab with the NYT results page open on my browser. I occasionally scroll down to the projected margin chart.

Me as well to both the two above quotes.

I like thinking about how the return of the Southern Democrat came from Alabama of all places.

On that note, Jones has returned the number of white Congressional Democrats from the Deep South to a grand total of one. The last one was John Barrow.

[fluffypanther19]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

yeah pretty much. It felt like an early Christmas present

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

Yes. Georgia was supposed to get a pro-choice Democratic Senator before Alabunga.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

Yes. Georgia was supposed to get a pro-choice Democratic Senator before Alabunga.

Yes, but we didn't have Roy Moore to run for the Republicans.

[MasterJedi]

Moore is supposedly putting together "numerous evidence of voter fraud" to send to the secretary of state's office. Aka he's trying to disenfranchise as many black people as possible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore is supposedly putting together "numerous evidence of voter fraud" to send to the secretary of state's office. Aka he's trying to disenfranchise as many black people as possible.

Essentially, trying to tell the SoS what a poor job he's done.  Nice strategy.

[Gustaf]

Moore wants the bribe money he would have cashed in as senator. It's pretty obvious personal enrichment is his main driver.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

[Virginiá]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

I think you're underrating just how tribal the electorate is, especially in a state like Alabama. That level of partisanship is exactly how you end up with Tuesday's result despite it seeming patently absurd. I mean, after all, it's not like most Moore supporters believed he was a pedophile and still voted for him. They flat out didn't believe the allegations, which made it easy to justify their support for him.

[Keep cool-idge]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

[user12345]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

With Alabamas super strict voter ID law, I think this is pretty much impossible.