Day 10: Georgia

[Alcon]

Discuss Georgia, or there will be gun violence.

I'd do a quick analysis of the state, but it's 2 AM and it's about time I get to sleep, lest there be actual gun violence come 8 AM tomorrow.

To jumpstart discussion, here's a quick summary of voting:

1. If you are black in Georgia, you vote Democrat.
2. If you are white in Georgia, you vote Republican, unless you are surrounded by black people.
3. If you are Latino, Asian, Native American, or any other ethnicity, you do not exist.

Southern states aren't quite as interesting to me because it is so much a racial thing, but let's go at it:



For those of you who don't know, Atlanta is the northwesternmost scattering of red counties.

The only other notably populated counties to vote Kerry were:

- Bibb (Macon; 47% black, 51% Kerry)
- Chatham (Savannah; 41% black, 50% Kerry)
- Clarke (Athens; 27% black, 58% Kerry)
- Dougherty (Albany; 60% black, 59% Kerry)
- Muscogee (Columbus; 44% black, 51% Kerry)
- Richmond (Augusta; 50% black, 57% Kerry)

Clarke County, Georgia, is probably one of the few - maybe even the only - definitively southern county where it is fairly clear that the white vote went for Kerry.  This may have happened in DeKalb County, but it is hard to tell.

Have fun.

[minionofmidas]

Several such counties elsewhere, Just look at Durham NC. Which is probably quite similar to Athens anyways.

And if you're White in Georgia, and you`re surrounded by Black people, you cast four Republican ballots. Will you just look at that cluster of White rural S Georgia counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The racial thing isn't usually *that* bad in Georgia (certainly not at State or Congress level)... I'm not sure why it's got that bad in recent Presidential elections. Anyone know?

Btw, the (very white) Northeast corner of Georgia seems to have one of the most extreme cases of vote splitting in the U.S; 70% for Bush but a swing area in state elections.

[Alcon]

The racial thing isn't usually *that* bad in Georgia (certainly not at State or Congress level)... I'm not sure why it's got that bad in recent Presidential elections. Anyone know?

Btw, the (very white) Northeast corner of Georgia seems to have one of the most extreme cases of vote splitting in the U.S; 70% for Bush but a swing area in state elections.

CNN exit polls pretty much had whites as 3-to-1 Republican and blacks as 4-to-1 Democrat.

Several such counties elsewhere, Just look at Durham NC. Which is probably quite similar to Athens anyways.

And if you're White in Georgia, and you`re surrounded by Black people, you cast four Republican ballots. Will you just look at that cluster of White rural S Georgia counties.

Oh, of course - good catch there.  Any others you can think of?

[minionofmidas]

That narrow belt along the Ala. line is interesting. I'm pretty sure there's 90% White counties at its northern end.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CNN exit polls pretty much had whites as 3-to-1 Republican and blacks as 4-to-1 Democrat.

Doesn't suprise me at all. But *why* has it gotten so bad in recent Presidential elections?

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Does TN count? Because there's some there... very different to Athens et al as well.

[© tweed]

In 1972, every county in Georgia went Republican.



In 1976, every county in Georgia went Democratic.



That's extremely rare.

[jimrtex]

Southern states aren't quite as interesting to me because it is so much a racial thing, but let's go at it:

Clayton County went +41% for Bush in 1988, +31% for Keryy in 2004.

[Alcon]

Southern states aren't quite as interesting to me because it is so much a racial thing, but let's go at it:

Clayton County went +41% for Bush in 1988, +31% for Keryy in 2004.

Yes, I just didn't include Clayton because it's inside the Atlanta metro.

[Q]

Southern states aren't quite as interesting to me because it is so much a racial thing, but let's go at it:

Clayton County went +41% for Bush in 1988, +31% for Keryy in 2004.

Yes, I just didn't include Clayton because it's inside the Atlanta metro.

The African-American population of Clayton, as well as its population in general, has increased significantly during this time, as have all the counties on the southside of Atlanta, but most of these are very white and very Republican.  Clayton is the black and Democratic version of these suburban or exurban Atlanta counties.  After 2004, a majority of its county commissioners is black for the first time.

[Q]

2. If you are white in Georgia, you vote Republican, unless you are surrounded by black people.
...
Clarke County, Georgia, is probably one of the few - maybe even the only - definitively southern county where it is fairly clear that the white vote went for Kerry.  This may have happened in DeKalb County, but it is hard to tell.

DeKalb (and Fulton to some extent) is rather unique.  A whole lot of whites in DeKalb vote Democratic.  A majority?  I'm not sure, but a significant portion of the white Dem vote statewide comes just from DeKalb.  There are a lot of white liberals around Decatur and the central-west part of the county, including those in some rather artsy areas.

3. If you are Latino, Asian, Native American, or any other ethnicity, you do not exist.

There are a lot of Latinos in metro Atlanta, but probably not too many vote.  And there is a very significant Asian population in DeKalb.  Not sure of its voting habits though.

[Bacon King]

In Gainesville, Georgia (Hall County), there are more billboards in Spanish than English, and Hall went pretty strongly for Bush.

[Alcon]

In Gainesville, Georgia (Hall County), there are more billboards in Spanish than English, and Hall went pretty strongly for Bush.

That's surprising, since only a third of Gainesville is Hispanic and under a fifth of the county is.

Then again, rural Hispanics tend to be Republican, unless very poor.

[Q]

In Gainesville, Georgia (Hall County), there are more billboards in Spanish than English, and Hall went pretty strongly for Bush.

That's surprising, since only a third of Gainesville is Hispanic and under a fifth of the county is.
Then again, rural Hispanics tend to be Republican, unless very poor.

I would think that very few of the Hispanics in this area would be eligible to vote...

[nclib]

Given Zell Miller's endorsement of Bush, it is somewhat surprising that Georgia didn't go even more strongly for Bush.

[Q]

Given Zell Miller's endorsement of Bush, it is somewhat surprising that Georgia didn't go even more strongly for Bush.

Miller was very popular and respected while Governor and then at the beginning of his partial Senate term (and even through his election to that office), but I think his prestige among Georgians decreased considerably the longer he was in the Senate.  I don't think his endorsement counted for much, since it was painfully obvious that he was no longer the same man as who served as governor during the 1990s.

[jokerman]

Given Zell Miller's endorsement of Bush, it is somewhat surprising that Georgia didn't go even more strongly for Bush.

Miller was very popular and respected while Governor and then at the beginning of his partial Senate term (and even through his election to that office), but I think his prestige among Georgians decreased considerably the longer he was in the Senate.  I don't think his endorsement counted for much, since it was painfully obvious that he was no longer the same man as who served as governor during the 1990s.

Quite true.  The Governor Zell Miller was a populist, yet the new Zell is some kind of reactionary conservative, advocating a national sales tax and the end of the direct election of Senators.

[Bacon King]

Given Zell Miller's endorsement of Bush, it is somewhat surprising that Georgia didn't go even more strongly for Bush.

Miller was very popular and respected while Governor and then at the beginning of his partial Senate term (and even through his election to that office), but I think his prestige among Georgians decreased considerably the longer he was in the Senate.  I don't think his endorsement counted for much, since it was painfully obvious that he was no longer the same man as who served as governor during the 1990s.

Quite true.  The Governor Zell Miller was a populist, yet the new Zell is some kind of reactionary conservative, advocating a national sales tax and the end of the direct election of Senators.

And the scary thing is, several people I know in south Georgia tell me that they would vote Zell Miller for president, if he ran.

[memphis]

Given Zell Miller's endorsement of Bush, it is somewhat surprising that Georgia didn't go even more strongly for Bush.

Miller was very popular and respected while Governor and then at the beginning of his partial Senate term (and even through his election to that office), but I think his prestige among Georgians decreased considerably the longer he was in the Senate.  I don't think his endorsement counted for much, since it was painfully obvious that he was no longer the same man as who served as governor during the 1990s.

Quite true.  The Governor Zell Miller was a populist, yet the new Zell is some kind of reactionary conservative, advocating a national sales tax and the end of the direct election of Senators.

And the scary thing is, several people I know in south Georgia tell me that they would vote Zell Miller for president, if he ran.

It's funny to watch politicians who aren't running for re-election actually begin to say what they personally believe.

[Ben Meyers]

In 1972, every county in Georgia went Republican.



In 1976, every county in Georgia went Democratic.



That's extremely rare.

Heh, that's very funny.