Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[MT Treasurer]

37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents

[fluffypanther19]

I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race

I have one on Thursday and I really do need to start studying. but between this race and the beautiful snowfall outside, I haven't been concentrating

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

43% of voters 'born again,' 57% not

47-53 no in 2008

[MAINEiac4434]

I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race

I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.

"I'm sorry, I was unable to finish my paper because of Roy Moore possibly blowing away a safe R seat".

He's going to blow up Alabama?

IceSpear just became a huge Moore supporter.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

[DrScholl]

CNN Exit poll says that only 43% of the electorate is evangelical. Apparently it was 47% in 2016.

[Sestak]

The only thing Moore has going for him in these polls is the senatorial control preference. GOP - 51% Dems - 43%

That's hardly in his favor. All the D voters are definitely Jones. And I can see some Rs crossing ballot. So no. And also it's much more D than I'd expect from AL.

[swf541]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

Expected higher

[Sestak]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

No surprise. But good for the other ~18%.

[Illiniwek]

I will believe in a Jones victory when I see one.

Yep. I like these signs, but I still have faith in how terrible the people of Alabama are.

[The Other Castro]

37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CNN Exit poll says that only 43% of the electorate is evangelical. Apparently it was 47% in 2016.

Even Moore bad news...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Solution to the late-night elections dilemma is always the same: move to West Coast.

[Mr. Morden]

How much did exit polls overestimate Kerry by...?

Those were early/mid-afternoon unauthorized leaks of the exit polls, which weren't being weighted properly.  After that fiasco, the exit polling consortium changed their methodology so that none of the networks had any access to exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Thus, it doesn't make sense to compare the current exits with the 2004 afternoon leaks.  The more appropriate comparison would be comparing to Clinton vs. Trump last year.

[fluffypanther19]

I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race

I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.

crap, I almost forgot that I have to submit a paper tomorrow. I finished it, I just would had forgotten to submit it

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Jones is climbing in the PredictIt market, up to 43... was 33 this morning

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how the students of UofA voted...

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the CNN video on the exit polls:

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/940707597396729857

Are allegations against Moore true?

definitely true 26%
probably true 23%
probably false 29%
definitely false 16%

Was it an important factor in deciding your vote?
yes 40%
no 55%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Here’s the CNN video on the exit polls:

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/940707597396729857

Are allegations against Moore true?

definitely true 26%
probably true 23%
probably false 29%
definitely false 16%

Was it an important factor in deciding your vote?
yes 40%
no 55%

Bad for Moore. Many of those saying "no" might mean that they were never considering voting for him in the first place.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder how the students of UofA voted...

Probably Jones by about 15 points or so with a larger than average swing from maybe Trump by 20?  Lots of Republicans likely either stayed home or wrote in somebody.  Precinct data says Trump won the Alabama campus precinct by low-double digits, but I could also imagine that the off-campus student vote (i.e. more Greek) and students more interested in their vote at their home address made it slightly more pro-Trump.  Plus, the out-of-state students (likely more Democratic) may be more likely to vote on campus because it's their only way to vote in Alabama.

EDIT: Maybe actually a little stronger for Trump.  All votes within one mile of the UofA campus were 58-35 Trump, and that would include tons of grad students (and those with postgrad degrees are more Democratic) and possibly professors.  Trump may have been well into the 60s with Bama undergrads.  Still, I would expect a massive shift to Moore with these people.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

How many DNK OR BELIEVE TRUE (left true out so modified)

[swf541]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

How many DNK OR BELIEVE

[Lord Admirale]

"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....