Who will win the Alabama Senate race?

[MT Treasurer]

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

Meh, before election day RINO Tom said that he'd never vote for Clinton, but he changed his mind in the voting booth. Don't underestimate how many suburban Republicans/Strange supporters could abandon Moore.

[Progressive]

Jones           48.6%
Moore          48.0%
Write-in        3.4%

I couldn't imagine the shame and humiliation of someone like Roy Moore representing me, and I hope my prediction is right.

[IceSpear]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

Meh, I don't think it's fair to expect a conservative to vote for Jones. It's more than fair to expect them to not vote for Moore though.

[TheSaint250]

Roy Moore (R): 48.0%
Doug Jones (D): 46.5%
Write-In: 5.5%

(Rounded to the nearest half-percentage point or percentage point)

I hope I'm wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

Meh, I don't think it's fair to expect a conservative to vote for Jones. It's more than fair to expect them to not vote for Moore though.

Oh I know. I probably wouldn't vote if I were in their shoes either. But I'm just trying to kill this silly notion that Jones is going to pull a McCaskill and outperform the polls so much on election day like Mt Treasurer suggestts. We'll see though. I just don't see many people who would tell a pollster they'd vote for a child molester suddenly change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. If anything, it'd be the people telling pollsters they're voting for Jones out of social desirability being most likely to switch.

The thing is that "outperforming the polls" is a little slippery.  For example, looking at the SurveyMonkey raw totals among RV, Jones is ahead by a nice margin.  But using different turnout models, he's ahead by less, tied, or behind.  Similarly, Jones is either ahead or behind in the Gravis poll depending on which electorate model they use.  Who actually turns out is going to be the key (as has been noted in these threads many times by now, sorry for being repetitive.)  If he gets 50%, is that outperforming SurveyMonkey or not?

That's why Northam outperformed his published poll results: turnout in the D-leaning areas of Virginia was much stronger than anyone expected, and there wasn't a corresponding increase in R-leaning areas.  If the same thing happens in Alabama, Jones will probably win; if not, he won't.  But as to whether it will happen, I don't have a clue.

[MT Treasurer]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

Meh, I don't think it's fair to expect a conservative to vote for Jones. It's more than fair to expect them to not vote for Moore though.

Oh I know. I probably wouldn't vote if I were in their shoes either. But I'm just trying to kill this silly notion that Jones is going to pull a McCaskill and outperform the polls so much on election day like Mt Treasurer suggestts. We'll see though. I just don't see many people who would tell a pollster they'd vote for a child molester suddenly change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. If anything, it'd be the people telling pollsters they're voting for Jones out of social desirability being most likely to switch.

The thing is that "outperforming the polls" is a little slippery.  For example, looking at the SurveyMonkey raw totals among RV, Jones is ahead by a nice margin.  But using different turnout models, he's ahead by less, tied, or behind.  Similarly, Jones is either ahead or behind in the Gravis poll depending on which electorate model they use.  Who actually turns out is going to be the key (as has been noted in these threads many times by now, sorry for being repetitive.)  If he gets 50%, is that outperforming SurveyMonkey or not?

That's why Northam outperformed his published poll results: turnout in the D-leaning areas of Virginia was much stronger than anyone expected, and there wasn't a corresponding increase in R-leaning areas.  If the same thing happens in Alabama, Jones will probably win; if not, he won't.  But as to whether it will happen, I don't have a clue.

Exactly, and my prediction is that the electorate will be even more D-friendly than it usually is in a special election under an unpopular R president. You combine that with the Strange supporters, suburban voters, Republican-leaning Independents, etc. who will cross over to vote for Jones, and it's fair to rate this race Lean D.

This is also the only solid red state I believe the Democrats will win. Republicans will almost certainly hold TN, TX, WY, NE, etc. next year, whether Moore wins or not. This special election is hardly a good bellwether IMO.

[MT Treasurer]

^good thing no one serious thinks any of those solid red states will be anything but Safe R except for Tennessee, which seems to be widely considered Likely R still.

Democrats will have a tough enough time retaining the red state Dems to focus on going after other solid R states.

I wasn't saying anything about other people's ratings, just that I believe AL is more likely to flip than any other R-held Senate seat save for NV and maybe AZ. I could actually see the Democrats winning TX (and maybe MS) in a big wave, but that's not what this thread is about. 

I'm just wondering why you're so bullish on Democrats' chances in 2018 (even in many red states) and yet seem to be obsessed with this idea that Moore couldn't possibly lose a special election after being accused of pedophilia?

[IceSpear]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

Meh, I don't think it's fair to expect a conservative to vote for Jones. It's more than fair to expect them to not vote for Moore though.

Oh I know. I probably wouldn't vote if I were in their shoes either. But I'm just trying to kill this silly notion that Jones is going to pull a McCaskill and outperform the polls so much on election day like Mt Treasurer suggestts. We'll see though. I just don't see many people who would tell a pollster they'd vote for a child molester suddenly change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. If anything, it'd be the people telling pollsters they're voting for Jones out of social desirability being most likely to switch.

The thing is that "outperforming the polls" is a little slippery.  For example, looking at the SurveyMonkey raw totals among RV, Jones is ahead by a nice margin.  But using different turnout models, he's ahead by less, tied, or behind.  Similarly, Jones is either ahead or behind in the Gravis poll depending on which electorate model they use.  Who actually turns out is going to be the key (as has been noted in these threads many times by now, sorry for being repetitive.)  If he gets 50%, is that outperforming SurveyMonkey or not?

That's why Northam outperformed his published poll results: turnout in the D-leaning areas of Virginia was much stronger than anyone expected, and there wasn't a corresponding increase in R-leaning areas.  If the same thing happens in Alabama, Jones will probably win; if not, he won't.  But as to whether it will happen, I don't have a clue.

Exactly, and my prediction is that the electorate will be even more D-friendly than it usually is in a special election under an unpopular R president. You combine that with the Strange supporters, suburban voters, Republican-leaning Independents, etc. who will cross over to vote for Jones, and it's fair to rate this race Lean D.

This is also the only solid red state I believe the Democrats will win. Republicans will almost certainly hold TN, TX, WY, NE, etc. next year, whether Moore wins or not. This special election is hardly a good bellwether IMO.

Well, nobody's denying all those factors helping Jones. It's what turned a typical 25-30 point win for Republicans into the possible single digit race it is now.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, nobody's denying all those factors helping Jones. It's what turned a typical 25-30 point win for Republicans into the possible single digit race it is now.

Even without those bombshells, Moore wouldn't have won by 25-30 points. At best 15 points IMO. And yeah, I do believe Jones could have beaten Strange as well.

[History505]

Moore.

[NHI]

I’m hoping by Jones, but I think Moore will squeak by

[Devout Centrist]

I'm still very pessimistic, but my heart says Jones.

[Suburbia]

Roy Moore will win by 3 points. He will be primaried in a challenge by a Alabama Republican in 2020, maybe.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

In any case, the ExtremeConservatives will turn out in droves to defend their persecuted molester

Incorrect. My father is staying home. I’m voting for Jones.

[Mr. Smith]

Moore: 49.9%
Jones: 47.1%
WIs: 2.8%

[7,052,770]

Oh I know. I probably wouldn't vote if I were in their shoes either. But I'm just trying to kill this silly notion that Jones is going to pull a McCaskill and outperform the polls so much on election day like Mt Treasurer suggestts. We'll see though. I just don't see many people who would tell a pollster they'd vote for a child molester suddenly change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. If anything, it'd be the people telling pollsters they're voting for Jones out of social desirability being most likely to switch.

If he "outperforms the polls," it won't be because voters lied to pollsters or changed their minds. It will be because the polls' likely voter models were a little bit flawed in the direction of Moore.

[Xing]

I'll be stunned if Jones wins or even comes within 5%. Moore winning by double digits would be less surprising to me. Alabama is as elastic as a brick, and most people care more about the magic (R) and "something something pro-life" than sexual assault.

[IceSpear]

Well, nobody's denying all those factors helping Jones. It's what turned a typical 25-30 point win for Republicans into the possible single digit race it is now.

Even without those bombshells, Moore wouldn't have won by 25-30 points. At best 15 points IMO. And yeah, I do believe Jones could have beaten Strange as well.

Yeah, I think Moore would've won by 15-20 points without the bombshells. I just meant a generic R vs. generic D race. Moore being the worst possible candidate + all those other factors is what is keeping the race from being a blowout. In most states Jones would be inevitable by now, but it's Alabama...

[Progressive]

I think Jones has 3 paths to victory.

1. Turn out the base + independents + flip some GOPs : This would be a not-insignificant resistance surge plus support from independents and a few good GOPers who can't vote Moore. They'd have to vote Jones not just write in.

2 Base/resistance victory: This would largely require the 36-39% of folks who vote Dem for president in AL to come out in full force. This would suggest that AL pollsters did not create the right electorate for Tuesday, which doesn't account for a huge surge from Dems.

3. Hemorrhage conservatives and GOP from Moore: I personally think this is the least likely scenario. Essentially, a significant chunk of GOP would have to hold their nose and vote Jones.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Jones           48.6%
Moore          48.0%
Write-in        3.4%

I couldn't imagine the shame and humiliation of someone like Roy Moore representing me, and I hope my prediction is right.

This is very close to mine. Narrow Jones win, with write-ins taking a few percent. I don't see Jones breaking 50%.

[Jeppe]

I haven't actually made a prediction yet for this race. I predicted the VA 2017 to a tee, so let's see how I do in 48 hours or so. I'm going to predict a narrow 3 point Jones win, but I definitely feel less confident about this than my VA prediction, where I just knew that Dems were going to outperform the polls

 I think the electorate will be different than what pollsters/people are expecting, especially with Republican turnout. I can certainly see a large portion of Republicans waking up on election day and despite supporting Moore, decide not to show up to the polls.

[Badger]

Jones I guess (dynamics of a special election + too many AlabamaIndys who will cross over and vote D), but not sure what his margin of victory will be. My current prediction:

50% Jones (D)
47% Moore (R)
3% Write-in

Our own AlabamaIndy isn't voting for Jones. He's staying home.

In any case, the ExtremeConservatives will turn out in droves to defend their persecuted molester

Incorrect. My father is staying home. I’m voting for Jones.

Insert enthusiastic audience clapping GIF here.

Go get e m, Indy!

[Sumner 1868]

Moore with an outright majority of the vote.

[Progressive]

Anyone feeling maybe a last minute surge of enthusiasm for Jones? Forget the Fox News poll, I mean something organically? Maybe just wishful thinking but it's the same feeling I had about Northam.

[junior chįmp]

My final prediction is a Jones win