YouGov-AL: Moore +6

[BudgieForce]

It's over, folks.

While I dont think Jones will win, this post is dumb.

[IceSpear]

It's over, folks.

It never even began.

[IceSpear]

It's over, folks.

While I dont think Jones will win, this post is dumb.

It's only dumb because it implies there was ever a chance to begin with.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

My baby boy is too beautiful for Alabama

[Comrade Funk]

Alabama values

[NOVA Green]

I thought I saw this poll shows tied among RV, Moore +6 on LV.

I can't find it in the crosstabs, but the CBS article about the poll says "Moore has a lead over Democrat Doug Jones, 49 percent to 43 percent, among the likely voters who are most apt to vote on Dec. 12. Among all registered voters, the contest is even."

Since nobody else has commented on this, Trump's approval ratings in this poll (57%) appear to be significantly higher than numbers we have seen elsewhere, including recent polls of the AL-SEN race, where his approval ratings tend to look much more like 49-51%....

Now, this is likely a question for pbrower2a, since he is the curator of a pretty cool thread on Trump's overall approval ratings by State and Nationally, but which numbers are actually more accurate when it comes to recent Trump Favorability numbers in 'Bama?

Something tells me the numbers are closer to the 49-51% and not the 57% in the YouGov poll....

In which case, this might well be a more 'Pub leaning sample size compared to the overall electorate....

This would likely jive with something that Brittain33 posted earlier upthread regarding this being an LV screen.... so once again we are back to what will the actual composition of the electorate look like on 12/12/17....

If 57% of the Voters that show up on 12/12/17 approve of the job that Trump is doing, Moore wins by 3-4%....

If 48-50% of the Voters that show up on 12/12/17 approve of the job that Trump is doing, we are likely looking at the next Democratic Senator from Alabama, since well, hell even though I'm a Middle-Aged guy, it would be many decades back, and plus there are likely going to be quite a few Trump > Jones crossover voters in 'Bama come Election Day....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also the age gap in this race according to this poll is insane:

Thankfully for the rest of us, the Republican Party is a dying organization and has at most a decade left

I do think that younger Republicans might be the least likely to vote in this race due to not liking Moore but still not wanting to vote for Jones (actually, in the presidential race, I would bet that well-off Republicans under 30 had very low turnout due to dissatisfaction with both).  But, still, despite the age gap on the topline, there is no age gap on the legality of abortion.

[Xing]

People definitely got way too excited when the polls in the immediate aftermath put Jones ahead. A Democrat is not winning in Alabama. Moore could admit the allegations are true and still win.

[Eraserhead]

People definitely got way too excited when the polls in the immediate aftermath put Jones ahead. A Democrat is not winning in Alabama. Moore could admit the allegations are true and still win.

If he had admitted it, apologized and claimed to have "found God" since then and all of that horse jizz, he'd probably be winning by even more than he is now.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This poll doesn't break down how many people of each party, but I was somewhat able to figure it out by plugging in the numbers:

47.5% Republican
31.5% Democrat
20% Independent


2012 Exit Poll for Alabama was:

43% Republican
34% Democrat
24% Independent


Adjusting the breakdowns from each group in this poll to 2012 demographics and you get:

46.94 Roy Moore - 46.63 Doug Jones

Not bad, but most undecideds are Republican leaning, so they will probably go to Roy Moore.

[KingSweden]

Pollsters are probably confused about what the turnout is going to be, just like Virginia.

Edit: I think this is a toss-up, mostly because special-election turnout is so hard to judge.

Agreed.  We see a pretty substantial spread on this one, but I do think Moore has gained somewhat from his position last week in the race.  I'd put this as Moore's upper bound, and something greater than the WaPO margin (but not sure how much) for Jones's.

Yeah I think this is likely the case.