AL-JMC: Moore +5

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

[BudgieForce]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

That's about as believable as Kellyanne Conway's alternative facts.

[BudgieForce]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

That's about as believable as Kellyanne Conway's alternative facts.

Plenty of people have been predicting a Moore win.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

That's about as believable as Kellyanne Conway's alternative facts.

Plenty of people have been predicting a Moore win.

Yeah, I mean obviously the person who is more vocal about it is going to receive the majority of the abuse, not the people who say their piece once then steer clear of the circlejerk. They see the dogpiling that will happen if they continue to argue their point and metaphorically piss in the Kool Aid, lol.

Putting it this way: If I was similarly vocal about saying Carlos Curbelo would lose, nobody would care. The main source of consternation is pointing out the fact that you guys don't want to hear.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The trend among the latest set of polls indisputably demonstrates a trend back to Moore. On the other hand, sample biases are always a problem for special election races, and I don't think anybody has an actual clue what the electorate will look like given the peculiar nature of this race. Which is why the preemptive vindication of some insisting this means that they were right to prematurely declare Moore the winner all the more puzzling. At best this went from tossup to Lean R. The fact that this poll is predicting such a heavy senior electorate and yet Moore is only 5 points ahead and still just short of a majority isn't exactly the resounding strength one would expect him to receive in such a old-skewing group.

[Devout Centrist]

That.... uh, that doesn’t look right

FWIW Nate Cohn is highly skeptical of this poll too.

Safest bet? Assume this is Tossup/Tilt R based on fundamentals of race (candidate quality compared to inelasticity if the state), be skeptical of polling turnout models, and accept that we have no idea what’s going on.

[IceSpear]

That.... uh, that doesn’t look right

FWIW Nate Cohn is highly skeptical of this poll too.

Safest bet? Assume this is Tossup/Tilt R based on fundamentals of race (candidate quality compared to inelasticity if the state), be skeptical of polling turnout models, and accept that we have no idea what’s going on.

You guys sure were confident of Sen. elect-Jones' victory a week ago considering we're supposed to "accept we have no idea what's going on."

It's pretty obvious what is going on though. The only question is whether or not one chooses to observe it.

[Cactus Jack]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

That's about as believable as Kellyanne Conway's alternative facts.

Even if you were on our side, you'd still be an obnoxious little twink. Stop posting.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

I said Moore wouldn't drop out. I said Trump's re-endorsement would give him a polling bounce. I said he'd only continue moving up in the betting markets. All comments met with scorn and derision.

That's on you, not on your predictions.

That's about as believable as Kellyanne Conway's alternative facts.

Even if you were on our side, you'd still be an obnoxious little twink. Stop posting.

That's about as believable as Trump's tweets.

[MT Treasurer]

I hate to post in this abomination of a thread, but honestly those crosstabs are garbage. This reminds me of the PPP poll that Akin leading McCaskill by 1 even after the legitimate rape comment. Still Lean D IMO.

[KingSweden]

That.... uh, that doesn’t look right

FWIW Nate Cohn is highly skeptical of this poll too.

Safest bet? Assume this is Tossup/Tilt R based on fundamentals of race (candidate quality compared to inelasticity if the state), be skeptical of polling turnout models, and accept that we have no idea what’s going on.

You guys sure were confident of Sen. elect-Jones' victory a week ago considering we're supposed to "accept we have no idea what's going on."

It's pretty obvious what is going on though. The only question is whether or not one chooses to observe it.

My tweets about jizzing everywhere at every good Jones poll were trolling to trigger/annoy our resident GOP hacks like Krazen, fwiw. That above quote reflects my real feelings

[IceSpear]

That.... uh, that doesn’t look right

FWIW Nate Cohn is highly skeptical of this poll too.

Safest bet? Assume this is Tossup/Tilt R based on fundamentals of race (candidate quality compared to inelasticity if the state), be skeptical of polling turnout models, and accept that we have no idea what’s going on.

You guys sure were confident of Sen. elect-Jones' victory a week ago considering we're supposed to "accept we have no idea what's going on."

It's pretty obvious what is going on though. The only question is whether or not one chooses to observe it.

My tweets about jizzing everywhere at every good Jones poll were trolling to trigger/annoy our resident GOP hacks like Krazen, fwiw. That above quote reflects my real feelings

I was referring to the Arizonans actually.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Jones does not win, I think a Gloria is the reason. Jones only chance is to prove Moore is lying about the yearbook.

[IceSpear]

If Jones does not win, I think a Gloria is the reason. Jones only chance is to prove Moore is lying about the yearbook.

Moore could be caught on tape diddling kids and he'd still win. The deplorables would just say it's fake news and doctored footage.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Jones does not win, I think a Gloria is the reason. Jones only chance is to prove Moore is lying about the yearbook.

Moore could be caught on tape diddling kids and he'd still win. The deplorables would just say it's fake news and doctored footage.

Moore has become favored because the Pedophilia broke too early. The problem is that Voters have the attention span of a goldfish. If him diddling kids comes out now, he likely loses.

[Bidenworth2020]

Establishment Reps should be actively be campaigning for Jones!

[GlobeSoc]

Even if IceSpear had a 100% success rate on every prediction he made(Governor Cole), I would keep in mind what he had to say but I would still argue with him because he's that much of an ass

[IceSpear]

Even if IceSpear had a 100% success rate on every prediction he made(Governor Cole), I would keep in mind what he had to say but I would still argue with him because he's that much of an ass

I was correct that a Republican would win the WV gubernatorial race. I just picked the wrong one.

[SPQR]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

That's because nearly every post you've made has been some reformulation of "Moore will win, stop even talking about this race".
God, you're insufferable even to a casual user like me.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

That's because nearly every post you've made has been some reformulation of "Moore will win, stop even talking about this race".
God, you're insufferable even to a casual user like me.

Which will all be proven true. Thanks for playing.

[Eraserhead]

The only question now is probably whether he wins by a double digit percentage or not, unfortunately.

[IceSpear]

The only question now is probably whether he wins by a double digit percentage or not, unfortunately.

Yep...

[NOVA Green]

So, actually back to the subject at hand, which is the JMC poll of Alabama, as opposed to an individual poster who brought us the "West Virginia" is the redneck hateful Capitol of America posts not that long ago, who apparently needs to check with his shrink regarding "Alabama is the new West Virginia" memo, and arguably is derailing every thread on the topic, along with a handful of Moore supporters, and various Democratic avatars venting steam about Moore's predilection for Underage Girls....

This poll obviously has certain issues when it comes to both methodology and assumptions regarding the Alabama Electorate in the 2017 Alabama Special election..... The sample size is heavily weighted towards much older and Whiter voters than the statewide electorate as a whole, and I suspect much of that is because of the landline based polling model employed, where it appears that younger voters (18-35) appear as only 3% of the electorate, and over 50% of the electorate in all of their polls is 60+ years, where even according to their own poll Jones is carrying every single age bracket from 18-64....

Still, despite all of these flaws it does at least give us some data points to examine and measure against historical election results in 'Bama, even if we were to assume that their modeling of the 12/12/17 electorate is accurate in a poll conducted right after the Thanksgiving Holiday....

I have long complained about the lack of a regional breakdown in Alabama Senate polls, which might help give us a better idea of how the election might well play out, which is in a State similar to Ohio (But much smaller) where there are various large Metro Areas where a significant chunk of the voters are concentrated, as well as various rural and small town communities....

Ok---- so here is JMC's estimation of the electorate by Region within Alabama:



It actually pretty closely mirrors the 2016 breakdown by region, with the exception that Dothan is overpresented having only 3% of the statewide vote in '16 versus 5% in the JMC poll (Whatever, let's call it statistical noise around the margins)....

Now let's look at the JMC breakdown of regions (Which apparently is based upon Media markets identified from their business partner Nielsen). Here is their breakdown by County....



Now, the definitions of regions that they use is a bit diffuse, especially when one looks at the sprawling Birmingham Media Market/Region, where one must certainly wonder about why certain counties are included/excluded from various regions....

Still basically it breaks down into the following categories:

1.) Birmingham Region--- 40% of the statewide electorate

Needless to say it includes not only the overwhelmingly African-American and Democratic Cities of Birmingham and Bessemer, but also heavily White Middle and Upper-Middle Class suburbs and Exurbs of Jefferson, Shelby, St Clair, etc, stretches all the way up the "Outlaw Country" Moonshiner and Dope-Growing Country of NE 'Bama, includes Moore's old stomping grounds of Gadsen when he would troll for Teenage Girls as DA, wraps all the way West to include Tuscaloosa, and even grabs some counties from the "Black Belt" region of the State.

2.) Huntsville-- 20% of statewide electorate--- is a more classically defined region of the State, and despite the name of the largest City actually includes quite a few rural counties that used to be old "Southern Whig" Country at the time of the Civil War, and were some of the last holdouts of the "Yellow Dog White Democrats" in 'Bama, that weren't nearly as keen on segregation as many other Whites within 'Bama.

3.) Montgomery---19% of Statewide Electorate--- Basically this map includes much of the classic "Black Belt" region of 'Bama and perhaps is considered one of the least elastic parts of the State in terms of voting patterns, is part of the "Minority Central" region that the authors of Patchwork Nation identified shortly after the '08 elections.

4.) Mobile--- 15% of the Alabama electorate--- Includes a handful of Counties in SW 'Bama along the Gulf Coast, that perhaps has one of the highest Catholic populations within the State, combined with a mixture of Working-Class retirees from throughout the region and elsewhere.

5.) Dothan--- 3-5% of the electorate---- Basically consists of one of the Whitest Parts of 'Bama (Other than Northern 'Bama), and long considered to be the classic evangelical White stronghold of the State.

Here is a visual representation of the support for US Senate by "Region" based upon the JMC Poll....



Now lets look at the polling results and election History by Region:

1.) Birmingham--- "Metro Media Market"



So Doug Jones is actually performing as well as Al Gore here with one of the lowest % of undecideds in the State....

2.) Huntsville--- Metro Media Market



This is obviously a place where Jones needs to perform well, and even if we take this poll at face value with only 4% undecided, it's pretty clear that Jones will have brought back all of the Clinton/Gore Democrats in Northern 'Bama that just recently shifted 'Pub, and then some...

Wildcard isn't just the City of Huntsville and surrounding 'Burbs and 'Exurbs of Madison County, but places like Colbert, Jackson, and Lawrence County which Gore won in 2000.... Margins matter a hell of a lot here, and I suspect that Jones needs to win this part of the State in order to become the next US Senator from Alabama...

3.) Montgomery Media Market---

The most traditionally Democratic Part of 'Bama, and also the part of the state with the highest % of African-American voters....

Not only is this must win, but a part of the State where he has a chance to rack up some serious margins to offset loses elsewhere within the State....

According to JMC there are 7% undecideds here (One of the largest numbers within Alabama), that likely are heavily African-American, but still don't totally trust a White Democrat from Alabama, despite his positive endorsements....



4.) Mobile Media Market--- 15% of the Statewide Electorate:

This is perhaps the most perplexing of the Survey results....

We have a traditionally overwhelmingly Republican Part of the State, where Jones is + 7% in the polls with 8% undecided, where no National Democrat has been able to capture over 40% of the Vote since Jimmy Carter....

As I posted elsewhere, when looking a precinct level results for Mobile County, I suspect that this region of the State has a much larger White Catholic Vote than anywhere else in Alabama, not to mention the whole French-Canadian/ Cajun gig....

Maybe many of these voters are reacting differently to the Child Sexual Assault charges leveled against Jones than White Evangelical and Southern Baptists elsewhere in the State???

I do have some serious questions regarding the Mobile sample in question, since we have a decent explanation for why Northern 'Bama (Huntsville) is swinging hard towards Jones, we have yet to see  a solid argument as to why Mobile Area is swinging hard towards Jones....



Ok---

Even if we take this poll at face value and the electorate will be overwhelmingly 65+ and much Whiter than the typical Alabama electorate, it really doesn't look like the "Good News" from scripture, Mark 1:14-15:

"After John was put in prison, Jesus went into Galilee, proclaiming the good news of God. 15 “The time has come,” he said. “The kingdom of God has come near. Repent and believe the good news!”

Last time I saw Moore has not yet repented for his actions....

[IceSpear]

So, actually back to the subject at hand, which is the JMC poll of Alabama, as opposed to an individual poster who brought us the "West Virginia" is the redneck hateful Capitol of America posts not that long ago, who apparently needs to check with his shrink regarding "Alabama is the new West Virginia" memo, and arguably is derailing every thread on the topic, along with a handful of Moore supporters, and various Democratic avatars venting steam about Moore's predilection for Underage Girls....

Perhaps you might want to see a shrink instead for your poor vision, since if you actually read the thread you'd see I was mentioned multiple times before I even posted.

Decent post otherwise though.